Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.
UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:
Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”
Laocoon
Apart from Warren Truss and Barnaby, who are the other Nats on front shadow bench?
[Contrast him with Barnaby’s hysterics this morning.]
Compared to Oakeshott Barnaby’s not worth a spit!
Hang on George works for the Australian, i wonder if he will actually say something with supported facts and is true.
[My son (with wicked sense of humour) gave me the DVD “The Howard Years” for father’s day. ]
Did you like the deficit announcement by Costello immediately after the Coalition won government?
Thanks Frank. It brings back early adolescent memories.
Tea Party! In Australia? Surely every rednecked ocker will see through this sham! It’s unAustralian, mate! Whot der they reckon we are? THe 50 somethingth state?
Beer party? Maybe. Bundy and Coke Party? Could work. Tea party? Nah. The CWA already have monopoly rights on that one!
Frank
Probably a silly question, but was that a “fair dinkum” commercial??!!!
Laocoon
Luke (Pruneface) Hartsuyker is another.
I saw rage against the machine in abandoned car park in LA, now that was a gig to remember…..if only I could 😛
victoria
Don’t go there.
[ Apparently Abbott has told his minions to lay off the Indies. ]
There’ll still be an insidious whisper campaign against Windsor and Oakeshott in their electorates. But the Coalition will be careful not to leave their fingerprints all over it.
victoria
You mean their huge profile and competencies have escaped you 😉
Well, I had to look it up 😆
The Hon. John Cobb MP
Shadow Minister for Agriculture, Food Security, Fisheries and Forestry
Mr Luke Hartsuyker MP
Shadow Minister for Consumer Affairs, Financial Services, Superannuation and Corporate Law
Senator The Hon. Nigel Scullion
Deputy Leader of The Nationals
Shadow Minister for Indigenous Affairs
Senator for the Northern Territory
They also have a shadow parliamentary secretary (sort of, I imagine, a shadow Chancellor for the Duchy of Lancaster)
Mr Mark Coulton MP
Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Regional Development and Emerging Trade Markets
My best concert was U2 ZooTV tour. My kids were the youngest people there (6 & 9)… they were terrified, they’d never seen so many people.
Second best was Floyd with the flying pig in the 80s
Saw Zeppelin in 73 when I was a kid — amazing
Off to Roxy music and U2 in the coming months (I’m a concert slut)
William: thanks for your response on the other (closed) thread re my TPP question.
I went back and looked at my numbers and you are right I had overestimated the “winner” in each case, but as you say that error balanced out (My final count had about 120k for Libs balanced by about 120k for ALP in their 4 seats ea- lets see!!)
I find this Morgan interesting for a number of reasons, first Morgan’s comments pretty much admit what many have suspected (that his F2F poll overestimates ALP TPP by about 4%!). Based on the reported voting at the last election this error appears to be a sampling bias (Morgan’s sample consistently captures more ALP voters) and when this is corrected the final result predicts the actual result (so why not ask this each time and correct?) and finally, what with a F2F poll, telephone poll and now SMS poll, what about a Facebook poll, twitter poll or better still why doesnt he just save time and money and tell us his basic “Vibe”???
Pretty easy to predict all polling over the next few months:
ALP will win. This appears to be a consistent effect from my experience as voters cant be stuffed after elections and just give whoever wins “a fair go”!
Laocoon
Well you learn something new every day. I had no idea. They must be doing a hell of a job.
Another right wing group to negotiate on the Senate paper, it was full of them, Shooters, Christian Dems, Citizens Electoral mob, Family First, Fred Nile loonies, Nats, One Nation, Climate Septics, now this, like a road full of mines…
[What of the True Believers instrumental..]
And from Sydney, The Atlantics.
Nah, he told them to lay off because the OO already has it covered. They’re all free now to concentrate on how best to portray the election result as “illegitimate”.
deewhytony@3217 on Victorian federal redistribution and other tales – The Poll Bludger
I only saw the introduction where PVO put the boot into Rudd with a ten yard run up. It included –
– Rudd a failure on FA because he insulted the Chinese by speaking mandarin to them and pointing out their human right failings.
– He also insulted the Japanese for not visiting them earlier enough during his term as PM (PVO failed to mention Rudd’s comprehensive rebuttal’s of the Jap Reporter who raised this crap – asking how many PM or Ministerial visits had been made by the Japanese to Australia and giving the detail of such visits – way way less then Australian visits)
– How Rudd IF he became FM would also probably *insult* Narua.
At that stage I switched channels – I’d had enough of the magnificent so called *balanced* crap from PVO
This whisper campaign will probably have all the hallmarks of the one that kind of occurred in Lindsay last election but done more clandestine and done more subtlelty.
As i said the courage of these Independents was amazing and they need to be proped up occasionally with some positive comments.
[Well you learn something new every day. I had no idea]
Actually, I just noticed as well that Joyce isn’t even deputy leader of the Nationals – “only” leader in the Senate
I wonder if there is some convention that the leader and deputy must be in the HoR
[Thanks Frank. It brings back early adolescent memories]
If only we could have late ones.
[I wonder if there is some convention that the leader and deputy must be in the HoR]
Obviously not! Since the deputy is from the Senate – duh!
Need to stop cutting down on the wine intake; it is effecting my simple comprehension
victoria@107
Of course 🙂 Back in the days when Aussie Ads were made and produced locally, rather than crudely revoiced Yank ads.
A Great channel of various old Aussie Ads is this one –
http://www.youtube.com/user/Conniptions886
My predictions:
Ministers:
PM – Jules
DPM/Treasurer – Swanny
Immigration – Evans
Defence – Smith
Education, Early Childhood Edu and Childcare – Simon Crean
Emplyoment, Workplace Releations and Social Inclusion – Jason Clare
Foreign Affairs – Rudd
Trade – Craig Emerson
Health – Roxon
FaHCSIA – Macklin
Finance – Bowen
INfrastructure et al – Albo
Broadband et al – Conroy
Innovation et al – Kim Carr
CC and Energy Efficiency – Greg Combet
Water – Mark Butler
Environment et al – Garrett
AG – McClelland
SPMoS, Cabinet Sec: Ludwig
Agri, Fishies, Forest: Burke
Resources et al: Ferguson
Human Services, Financial Services, et al: Wong
Vet Affairs, Defence Materiel, Defence Personell and Science: Shorten
Housing: Plibersek
Home Affairs: O’Connor
Indigenous Health, rural regional et al: Snowdon
Competition policy, et al: Gary Gray
Ass Treasurer: Sherry
Ageing: Elliot
Youth, Sport: Ellis
Employment Participation: Arbib
Promoted to Parl Sec:
D’Ath
Rishworth
Feeney
Farrell
3 others?
[Anyone else think it appropriate that someone named Crook gives their support to the Coalition?]
Yep, you have Crook, Robb, And 2 abbotts and 2 bishops and a briggs … just a few scary names
Frank
Honestly that commercial was hilarious. It looked like it was a parody.
kakuru@111
The OO will do all the heavy lifting for then anyway – nuthin new there.
Unfortunately Oakie’s decision not to take a ministership (good decision) will be interpreted by the libs and their nut job cousins in the nats as they had successfully chased Oaki off the patch and embolden then to continue to put the boot into Windsor & Oaki with more glee even if a bit more concealed
BK:
I was thinking about Barnaby’s interview today, and how he targeted Windsor with (wtte) keeping him honest while he visits there. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s seriously considering running in Windsor’s seat. Did you get the same vibe from his interview?
James
You missed two big newbies.
Min for Population
Min for Regional Development.
Dr Good (#64) and others:
Surely there is only one way to count the TPP in O’Connor (and all the other seats with Nats and Libs contesting) and that is to systematically exclude the candidate with the lowest number of votes, re-allocate their votes according to the next preference and then when you get to the stage that either the Nat or Lib is excluded, then you count the ALP vs Lib/Nat TPP accordingly. I suspect that is why the AEC is calling it “Lib/Nat” but counting as an ALP vs. Crook (as Crook ends up winning)…
If you dont count Crook in the mix you need to exclude the CLP in the Northern Territory and the LNP in Qld (all of which are different parties officially). Then you can forget about the TPP as ALP would win clearly (albeit artificially and meaninglessly). Whether a member sits in caucus or not has nothing to do with whether the voters in their seats preferred a conservative or labour member.
Best concert I have ever seen was Leonard Cohen when he was in town a couple of years ago.
Mesmorising – it was more like a religious event.
Dylan was good too in 2007. Well good by his standards!
What about the woman in Tasmania who is already a Parl Sec? Forget her name, but she sat behind the PM in QT.
[Prominent Liberal powerbroker Senator Bill Heffernan says his party’s federal election loss with key independents backing Labor would never have happened if the Liberals had merged with the Nationals]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/the-night-the-devil-tried-to-sympathise-with-rudd-20100910-154oo.html?autostart=1
Madcyril
Thx for that and yes that was what I was asking you. So basically the journo was writing about a story that was already out today and is old news. hmmm.
BH
No the tavern was just outside ipswich in Qld. Wasn’t my taste in music a bit folksy but was filled to the gills on pink schampas, I’d sing my heart out. I think I lost some of my hearing there 🙁
[ Dylan was good too in 2007. Well good by his standards! ]
When I say Dylan some years back I didn’t understand a single word he said or sang, it was the worst concert I have ever seen!
say=saw
Frank Calabrese
Remember when the service stations had show bags for their customers?
dogma, I get the feeling it was going to be part two of the story.
[Remember when the service stations had show bags for their customers?]
Or when BP gave away smurfs.
good by his standards as I say Jon.
Didnt say a word to the audience other than to introduce his band but with Dylan its always about the music so that was fine by me.
ruawake
that is one thing I do remember. The smurfs. They were the in thing at the time.
James Bodentown
I think Dreyfuss should get a run. Maybe toss Elliot – she is substandard.
[BK:
I was thinking about Barnaby’s interview today, and how he targeted Windsor with (wtte) keeping him honest while he visits there. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s seriously considering running in Windsor’s seat. Did you get the same vibe from his interview?]
confessions
NOTHING would surprise me with the rabid one.
Julie Collins is who I was thinking of.
And I can’t see Mike Kelly in James’ list.
The Bundy Rebellion?
[And I can’t see Mike Kelly in James’ list.]
Yes, confessions, Mike Kelly has done everything right this last 3 years. He is a very good person.
“I just caught the tail end of Oakeshott being interviewed on local TV wtte that he didn’t take the job because the Nats were being so disreputable that they would bring the regional package down in their attempts to destroy him.”
riteon , meassage to his voters , Nats priority is politcs , his priority is regional package
[NOTHING would surprise me with the rabid one.]
Their behaviour is not only sour grapes but a message to others who may consider standing as independents in traditional National Party seats.
On a booth matched basis, I’m getting a 3.63 per cent swing against Labor on the ordinary vote in O’Connor, which moderates to 2.93 per cent if you allow for absent votes which have actually swung quite heavily to Labor – I guess because you get a lot of them in the relatively Labor-friendly Goldfields, which wasn’t in the electorate in 2007. A 3 per cent swing is exactly what I was anticipating.