Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:

Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,197 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. With 54.5-45.5 to Labor, Jules should put up a no confidence in herself when the Parl. meets and go back to the poll and romp back in.

  2. Is is possible part of the bias is that people will not admit, face to face, that they will vote for Tone? He’s a dirty little secret they have?

  3. From the previouas Thread :

    Frank Calabrese@3229

    The actual discs were mastered locally, as I assume the Master Tapes were flown in from the UK.

    Speaking of Master Tapes – The Twilights Young girl was originally mastered locally from an Acetate Disc – hence the poor quality sound – The song was only reissued using an original Master Tape in the last two years on the following Compilation:

    Young Girl – The Twilights
    Recorded in Abbey Rd along with What’s Wrong With The Way I Live during 1967, at the same time The Beatles occupied the studio down the hall working on Sgt Peppers. Now this particular track has always sounded quite distorted and harsh for a quality track recorded at Abbey Rd. It would appear it was initially mastered off an acetate disc for its local release. For this appearance, the original mono master tape was located at the EMI London tape vault and re-mastered for use here. 

  4. As we were discussing rock concerts, among other things musical, I was lucky enough to work at the Sydney Entertainment Centre for all five of Cold Chisel’s last stand concerts.

    Saw the concerts and got paid to do so.

  5. Going back to the previous post – Chris Bowen would not make a good Finance Minister. The Finance Minister needs to be a senior party member who is not afraid to say No when fiscal policy needs to be maintained. The most successful – Lindsay Tanner, Nick Minchin, Peter Walsh – fitted this bill. Chris Bowen is too junior, brought us two of the great Rudd government successes – Fuel and Grocery Watch – and is too NSW right to be able to say No. Stephen Smith or Greg Combet would be more successful in the job.

  6. From previous thread
    [Presenter Peter van Osterlen(?) put hard questions to Lib and IPA (Lib thought bubble) members of panel.]
    Actually PvO has been quite even anded for the past several months.
    He also had a shot at Leeson when he started sprouting 2PP, etc.

  7. This is known in Britain as the “Shy Tory” phenomenon.

    Some people do not want to admit that their selfish voting motives are not in the country’s best long term interests.

  8. Hmm – hope they all weren’t from the same email addy/IP Addy – Could be in breach of the Spam Act 🙂

    Peter Lalor AussieTeaParty

    We personally organised over 2400 emails to Oakeshott and know from his office he got double that many overall warning him not to grab power 6 minutes ago via web Retweeted by Gdayau

  9. Rosa

    I think part of the problem is that people do not like answering the door to people they do not know so the sampling is hard to get. I have been face to faced by Morgan once – I was actually up a ladder cleaning the gutters at the front of my house so I had no escape – but the lady told me that she had spent 2 days previously wandering around in Toorak without a single interview.

  10. [As we were discussing rock concerts, among other things musical, I was lucky enough to work at the Sydney Entertainment Centre for all five of Cold Chisel’s last stand concerts]
    Listening to Barnsey is akin to having heavy duty sandpaper pulled through your ears.

  11. gough1
    Posted Friday, September 10, 2010 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    “The spelling and grammatical errors in my last post are for iRONic effect (or not).”


  12. Not back then, Dee.

    He actually did sing and not screech as he did in his later career.

    Plus there was Moss who also sang quite a bit with Chisel.

  13. From the previouis thread

    Dr Bogan asked

    I can only assume he meant the “faceless men” of the ALP, did OO have a story on that today? is this journalism or self-promotion?

    The Australian ran this article today

    The Australian has learned that Mr Oakeshott, then a state MP, approached former NSW premier Morris Iemma in 2007 and asked to join his ministry. He was emboldened by persistent rumours of a cabinet reshuffle and the fact that Mr Iemma had recently appointed another independent, Northern Tablelands MP Richard Torbay, as Speaker.

    According to a senior Labor source, Mr Oakeshott told Mr Iemma he might resign from parliament if his request were not met, warning that his seat of Port Macquarie would probably revert to the Nationals.

    The article claims its info came from a senior Labor source who was privy to the discussions. I’ve been wondering who or where it came from. Oakeshott obviously thinks someone in the NSW right (or another faceless man) leaked the info.

  14. Was on the Telstra site for something else and came across this

    Very interesting in the light of subsequent events and the upcoming slugfest.

    Note “fibre” the solution in “remote communities”.

    And to contrast, more recently Telstra announced this

    Make of that what you will.

  15. Interestingly the Oz didn’t mention that Brogden publicly offered him a place in the Liberal Party ( and an assumed cabinet post) before the 2003 election. (I understand the Nats went apes*** when they heard it)

  16. Funny how the “senior labor source” leaks to the Australian and not to the Herald.

    Take all these “leaked” stories with all the salt in the Dead Sea.

    They have all the authenticity of a German jazz band.

  17. Aristotle, yes it was all very mischievous and a bit too neatly timed for me. I thought I heard some hack at the press conference saying they were running a story tomorrow that runs with this and actually uses named sources. Can anyone confirm.

  18. From the previouas Thread :

    Frank Calabrese

    Thanks Frank. As I said, I was transferred North, so their release didn’t even make the apology for a local rag. I bought mine early 68 – but that could have been well after it was released in bris. But I don’t remember the cover problem at the time; not until it became part of the legend. It and A Hard Day’s Night were my only Oz pressings; “were” because I passed them (with my Black Sabbath & ELP) on to our “adopted grandsons” – they were played to death anyway & are only good for bragging rights – & I’m told, they’re Soo-preeem as that!

  19. Yea, they could at least be called the NewEurekaStockade

    Though we don’t have any real significant anti authority historical events..

  20. Puna: I once had a taxi driver tell me ( it was a very long trip) that the rum rebellion was caused by the government taxing rum and the people protested by throwing a shipment of imported rum into the sea. Unfortunately, a generation ago most people learnt their Australian history from Walt Disney.

  21. Oakeshott @ 20

    If I recall correctly, there was also discussion about the time of Rob Oakshotts resignation from the Nats that he would go over to the Libs. This continued even up until the Lyne byelection after Mark Vaile retired.

  22. [With 54.5-45.5 to Labor, Jules should put up a no confidence in herself when the Parl. meets and go back to the poll and romp back in.]

    So that 27-29 Aug Newspoll was a good indication that (for once) people might actually have woken up next morning & thought “OMG. What have I done? I only meant to teach them [Labor] a lesson.”

    This gets better & better!

  23. Re: the morgan poll….

    While the bias toward the ALP might be a couple of % — the great big new black hole was very damaging to the libs and it shows.

    To me 52/48 sounds about right. I also think a few electors who wanted to protest, might understand now what they’ve done. (Sounds a little like the Libs right-to-rule rationale, I know, but when you have an overall ‘good’ govt. there is no deep or abiding reason to want to get rid of the incumbent).

    If the next few polls come up with similar figs, the Indies will have been well and truly justified in their choice. It will also make the opposition crazy but cautious about trying for a new election.

  24. The Oz story tomorrow:

    Barren heathen snubbed by anti-christ

    Julia Gillard’s illegitimate government was dealt a terminal blow yesterday when Labor sympathising son of Beelzebub Rob Oakeshott snubbed her offer of a ministry.

    Fearing accepting the offer would limit his ability to finally find some balls and stand up against Gillard’s “loathsome” Great Big New Tax on Impoverished Mining Magnates, Oakeshott rejected the unelected Labor leader’s blatant bribe.

    When we contacted the exulted Prime Minister in waiting Sir Tony Abbott he agreed with our suggestion that he should take the angle that this was a sign Mr Oakeshott was cracking under the pressure of deserting his constituents and shunning the path of righteousness to back the barren, heathen immigrant who has supplanted our rightful leader. He also agreed to us using the word “loathsome” in quotation marks in a way that made it appear Mr Oakeshott had said it.

    In an astonishing coincidence 70 rightfully elected and shockingly robbed of their moral right to govern Coalition MPs all agreed this was absolutely correct.

    Wyatt Roy said “who is Beelzebub?”

    In other news Mr Oakeshott denied suggestions made by a top placed source who is no way connected to the Liberal Party that he once had an affair with a goat called Trevor and took part in human sacrifice.

    Related stories:

    Wayne Swan is a Russian agent – an Andrew Bolt exclusive
    Bob Brown is raving homo
    Russian forest fires linked to pink batts
    Did we mention Bob Brown is gay?
    Armada of boats headed to Tasmania – the Boxing Day invasion the illegitimate government tried to hide
    Sky News is really fantastic says independent News Limited study
    Bob Brown fails to carry man-bag to official function
    Poll finds voters fear ginger haired women more likely to be unstable
    He’d have turned back the water – how action man Tony Abbott would have stopped the floods
    All Greens are gay loony hippies on crack

  25. madcyril 27

    Can you give me the context of your comment please.

    I and my OH sat through a Dire Straights concert and used to listen to a band called Bullamakanka at the local tavern every Sunday while drinking pink champas. I probably could have used it to acid wash my concrete drivingway.

  26. Yes, It is alleged that “the devil” Heffernan tried to get him to run as the Liberal candidate at the by-election. As Noah Vaile had resigned they were entitled to have a candidate. The last time there was a three cornered contest in Lyne was 1993 and the Liberals effectively lost by 2 votes. Talk about the Nat tail wagging the Lib dog!

  27. I wouldn’t be surprised a post election opinion poll bounce for the ALP, it will be like any other post election honeymoon. Wait a few months till the real business of politics begins before drawing any meaningful conclusions.

  28. The article claims its info came from a senior Labor source who was privy to the discussions. I’ve been wondering who or where it came from. Oakeshott obviously thinks someone in the NSW right (or another faceless man) leaked the info.

    Hello Michael Costa (you great big douchebag).

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Mr Thug was it.

  29. Rosa – I’m showing my age but we took our daughter to see Glen Campbell and she was disappointed that he didn’t ride in on his horse! That was the only attraction for her but I had a ball tapping my foot along to the songs.

  30. Janet Albretchinchin was going on about kombuya rainbow coalition and fighting over cattle or something or other on twitter. She thinks she cool and hip, just like those contestants you see on xfactor, only the crowds is laughing at her not with her. poor dear.

  31. It is interesting that the Libs cannot make that breakthrough on the North Coast of NSW – Paterson excepted. Even in Richmond, they were comprehensively outpolled by the Nats … though of course Labor won comfortably.

  32. dogma, do you mean about the journo asking a question at the press conference. If so, I thought I heard one of the journo’s asking Oakeshott whether he had the alleged conversation with Morriss Iemma about a cabinet position. When Oakeshott said no, the journo said something about two sources who were going on the record in an article tomorrow. It was a shocking line from the press conference so it was a little hard to hear. Was hoping someone else had some info.

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