Newspoll has published its first Queensland state poll since the March 2009 election, showing sub-optimal results for Anna Bligh’s government. The Liberal National Party has opened up a cavernous 57-43 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 44 per cent for the LNP, a woeful 29 per cent for Labor and 14 per cent for the Greens. Anna Bligh has fatal personal ratings of 26 per cent approval and 65 per cent disapproval, and trails John Paul Langbroek as preferred premier 42 per cent to 34 per cent. This is against an Opposition Leader with weak ratings of his own: 32 per cent approval and 42 per cent disapproval.
Is it LNP policy to have a referendum on the (re-)introduction of a Legislative Council?
Would they act on such a policy?
As I said in the other thread, obviously wait and see (Frank points out we’ve just had a federal election that may skew this a little). They still have 2 years to sort this out. However, I have it from several Brisbane based contacts (of whom, there are Labor, LNP, Green and Indy) who all say Bligh is becoming increasingly unpopular.
If this trend continues, I’ll expect to see some move to challenge her leadership.
No, there’s no enthusiasm at all for that idea in Queensland. That being so, they urgently need to introduce proportional representation in my view.
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I don`t see either of the major parties supporting that unless the Libs in the LNP try and sneak it passed the Nationals in the LNP so that they have a greater proportion of LNP seats in Parliament. I am sure that the Queensland Greens would support a Legislative Council so there can be some PR.
-39 net satisfaction. Still not as bad as Keating’s worst before an election he won, but clearly working on it.
She is the Prime Minister. She’s the one. Those Highlander posts were spooky. Just about to bucket down on Wallaroo town. Donner und blitzen
Clearly Queensland Labor have kicked too many of their mates too hard too often and now find themselves friendless and alone. What a surprise.
Of course, this has nothing to do with a constant propaganda barrage from the Murdoch Courier-Mail rag and his OO.
hopefully labors ratings have bottomed and the inevitable s#it fight within the libs will help turn them around
But who would replace Bligh? I just can’t see anyone there, the talent pool is dry.
[a woeful 29 per cent for Labor and 14 per cent for the Greens.]
Looking into my crystal ball, I see a ALP/Green coalition somewhere down the track!.
Just curious, would the greens now be a chance of winning some inner Brisbane seats in a similar fashion to Melbourne? I recall Andrew Bartlett got over 20% in the Federal election. I suppose the difficulty in getting up from second with optional preferential voting is much greater.
Can I ask any Brisbane PBers, is there a reason beyond the privatisations that the Bligh government has gone so bad so fast?
I don’t see the greens as the soilution in QUeenslad i was born and bred there but fled at 16 because of Joh).
The regionaility of Q is unlike any other state – urban politics does not play in the regions.
In my view this is Mining Tax (even though Bligh has tried to distance herself) and a continung drop in manual labour in the bush.
At a Federal level PBrs may be interested in this response from Bob Brown’s office to my post election congratulations and complaint about the media.
[We too are excited by the possibilities that the agreement offers to achieve lasting and beneficial reform to parliamentary processes and governance and the impetus it will give towards a more caring and sustainable future for us all.
We have had continuing concerns about various aspects of both the private and public media’s performance prior to, during and subsequent to the election campaign and are considering, as part of our post-election review process, the best way of addressing these.]
ALP 5,872,232
Liberal/National Coalition 5,868,092
4100 in front!?
Blight was gonerz the minute she scrapped the fuel subsidy and hit the QLD with the double whammy by ALSO jacking up Rego’s 30%.
Done and dusted. Don’t know the other blokes name, but don’t care. The hate for Blight is enough to get the Libs over the line.
Oh yes and all this was done immediately after the last election, yet she mentioned none of this BEFORE the election.
If you have a look at when the polls turned sour for Labor in QLD, you will come to this exact point in time.
[Can I ask any Brisbane PBers, is there a reason beyond the privatisations that the Bligh government has gone so bad so fast?]
Partly because her party has been in power too long and run out of vision. Beyond selling everything off, what are they doing? Social policy remains regressive (eg gay rights), health/education/infrastructure issues just plod along with little hint of urgency, and the regions have an almost psychopathic opposition to anything she proposes (daylight saving, flouridation, recycling water, council amalgamations, dams). Of course, the Murdoch press have no small role in this.
The strange thing is, the LNP are barely credible. Tony Abbott didn’t even do a presser with Langbroek during the election campaign.
At the moment, Bligh seems to be playing the political cycle of doing unpopular things long before an election, and maybe there is something up her sleeve later on. Frankly, I can’t see what that would be – I quite like her but this government has just gone flat without being particularly bad.
Any bookies offering odds on next QLD labor leader?
Socrates at 12. I am Brisbane based. I cannot think of anything other than it is trendy to dislike Bligh. I don’t know her personally. Some people have said she is difficult to deal with. The Curious Snail obviously is against her. As for a replacement, posdsibly Mickel or Fraser. Having said that, the LNP is in equal disarray. A number of defections recently. I think the Greens may do well, at ALP’s expense and to some extent the LNP.`Maybe Beattie wants another crack?
[I quite like her but this government has just gone flat without being particularly bad.] Sounds a bit like the Federal version of the ALP!.
At the last state election in March 2009 she was already “on the nose” thanks to bad press mainly. As Beattie before her she got back in because the Libs and Nats were presenting so poorly. They’ve now amalgamated (but little improvement). However, she’s gone from bad to worse mainly over privatisation and the effects of Queensland’s economy performing so poorly. More retired oldies in Queensland pro-rata too, doesn’t help her case.
I believe a new leader is the ALP’s only hope with the election due in 18 months time. We may get a hung parliament here in Queensland, too, if the indies go OK federally.
In my opinion, there are still a few wildcards left in Qld:
1. There will be a challenge on JPL at some point. Which is a shame, because he is a good bloke and Nicholls and the Borg are clowns;
2. By the next election, the QLD economy could be booming / massive employment … all thanks to the asset sales !. She should meet the 100,000 jobs promise easily enough
3. Hopefully Bob Katter is putting together a rag tag bunch of NQ Independants as we speak to split the LNP vote.
TheTruthHurts
Posted Thursday, September 9, 2010 at 11:40 am | Permalink
Blight was gonerz the minute she scrapped the fuel subsidy and hit the QLD with the double whammy by ALSO jacking up Rego’s 30%.
never agreed with any of your posts but you nailed that one .100%
the economy’s position in queensland (the downgrading of the credit rating last year), the payroll debacle in the health system, the scrapping of the fuel levy and imposition of another levy on top of fuel that has made brisbane’s fuel go from the cheapest in australia to the most expensive and of course the privatisation.
the federal mining tax if introduced and the still growing resentment of the rudd decision are going to further dent Bligh to a point of no return. i believe that the only reason they were re-elected was because of a queensland PM and despite the LNP being a bit of a rabble and clearly not ready for government yet, they will walk it in at the next election
I have been saying this since the last Qld election… if Bligh wins, she will be following the steps of the NSW ALP, they will knife their leader, 1 year out from the election and then employ a Woman to minimise the baseball bat effect
If you can get 1.40 for the LNP, run
“William @ 3
No, there’s no enthusiasm at all for that idea [reintroduce in Queensland. That being so, they urgently need to introduce proportional representation in my view.”
As per my post on the previous thread, I think there is a lot to be said for P.R. multi member electorates in lower houses. (Including the House of Reps.)
Electorates consisting of 5 current single member electorates would givea combination of both ‘local’ representation and a range of political views in each electorate.
It would be likely to result in more representative government, reduce the need for drastic redistributions and break down the ‘two dogs barking’ approach.
The Indies would seem well placed to argue for this atm.
William, am I correct in thinking that this could be introduced via legislation – i.e. doesn’t need a referendum?
From a personal point of view, and from the cocoon of Canberra, I thought that Peter Beatty was a good Premier. Although a staunch Labor supporter I quickly changed my view when I moved here about 6 years ago. The man was a spinmeister, nothing more or less. A “sorry” here, a “sorry” there and miraculously everything was fine. Forget the electricity brown-outs, the traffic snarls, the Bundaberg doctor, the health system in general, the water restrictions – it was all “sorry, I’ll fix it” then off to a cushy job in LA and Anna Bligh replacing him.
At the time I thought, now we’ll get some action and duly voted for her at the election, only to be hit with higher petrol costs, a possible sale of assets and various other policies, none of which were even hinted at during the election campaign. She has been on the nose for a while and has been saved only by the ineptitude of the opposition and its stupidity.
At present I’m living in NSW’s far north (so I have a similar dilemma in a few months) but by 2012 I’ll be living back in Qld.
Who will I vote for in 2012? I really don’t know at this stage. Probably Green, certainly not LNP and sadly, for the second time in my life (after the NSW election), most likely not Labor.
Vernula Publicus
I have been having a running battle with the ABC about their coverage of the election campaign and have, in the main, been fobbed off by a form letter. Today was the same.
May I have your permission to quote the second sentence of your letter from the Greens in my next complaint? It encapsulates all that I’ve been trying to get through to the ABC for a while now and the thought that a political party was actually considering this would add some weight to my argument.
The voting method can be changed by an Act of Parliament, just as it (Parliamant) abolished the LC, without a referendum, or, to more precise, despite a referendum.
Brisbane Bulldog is on the money, The North Queensland Party in the North and Far North will run candidate every where North of Bunderburg and may be able to pick up 1 or 2 seats. Katter has been listening to and helping to organise a loose affiliation of country-minded independents for some time now. The Fishing party/One Nation rump will allign themselves with Katter (as they did a couple of weeks ago in many booths across the Far North).
However as far as the Greens go there is not much chance of picking up seats, sure, an increase in voting percentages to the mid teens and early 20’s but apart from a couple of inner Brisbane seats where The Greens would need to spend big on advertising (not really in their make-up) they are caught in the trap of “Just Vote One” which both major parties will push in the build up.
There will be no preferences…would the Greens preference Labor anywhere? I think not.
GreenGreen. Why would Labor run a ‘vote 1’ strategy, least of all in SEQ where Greens will poll reasonably well?
Without Green prefs Labor in Qld is doomed. The tables are turned from the late 90s when the conservative vote split Lib-NP-ONP and Beattie’s just vote 1 strategy, replete with official looking signs at polling booths, had some purchase.
William
I think that’s the last thing we need, William. Optional preferential voting will do just fine.
The Qld Government’s problems stem from the drop in revenue due to the GFC, as mining and tourism were two of the hardest hit industries. Tourism still hasn’t completely recovered. But those whining about the loss of the petrol subsidy don’t want to know about that. And Garret pulling the rug from under Bligh when he blocked the Traveston Crossing dam didn’t do her any favours either. This State has had a temporary reprieve from the water problem because of last summer’s rainfall, but there are still massive water problems to be confronted. And the LNP have no answers either. Time for a lot of people in Queensland to get their heads out of their arses and do a bit of thinking for themselves, instead of swallowing the garbage served up on a daily basis by the worst newspaper in Australia.
I think that the 2pp figure of 43% based on those primary votes is too optimistic for the ALP. When the exhausted votes are accounted for (I expect about a 50% exhaust rate, based on my memory – sure its not the best) I roughly calculate the ALP 2pp to be only 40%.
That is getting into Percy Tucker territory, so maybe proportional representation or compulsory preferential systems may have some appeal.
[From a personal point of view, and from the cocoon of Canberra, I thought that Peter Beatty was a good Premier. Although a staunch Labor supporter I quickly changed my view when I moved here about 6 years ago.]
I actually feel that Beatty did a very good job for his first 2 terms, but started to fall away after that.
Anna Bligh in my opinion is fatally wounded and baring a miracle, will suffer a massive loss. I have said here before that she has managed to get nearly all the public offside. As much as I hate to say it, her losing the next election may be a good thing for both state and federal Labor in QLD in the long run. People here are blaming Labor for everything, and letting the shamble called the LNP run the state for a while will shift the focus.
Dr Good, William and/or Mumble/Anthony / anyone…..
Just for my own interest, can you give us a quick guide as to how you are estimating the final TPP vote to be a bare win for the ALP. I estimated it would end with about 50.1 to ALP but on examining todays results it looks pretty much like a dead heat 50.00 is on the cards once the vote is complete!!!
Forgetting the current total which includes the new Dennison figures (a 20k vote bonus to ALP) it was pretty much 50:50 beforehand excluding the 8 seats (4 Indies, O’Connor, Grayndler, Batman).
I am estimating Libs get 34k from O’Connor, 40k from Lyne, 40k from New England and 30k from Kennedy (total 144k) and,
ALP get 47k from Melbourne, 20k from Dennison (as happened), 30k from Grayndler and 43k from Batman (total 140k)
This ends up with a near 50:50 result!
I know this is irrelevant but I just find it fascinating given the closeness of all parameters in this election! Do you think any of the above is off track?
A hypothetical question for William Bowe-
If you were introducing a proportional representation system for QLD, what particular type would you use?
Hare-Clark with seven-member regions.
Mod Lib, I’ve answered your question on the other thread (this one’s for Queensland).
Tom tfab @1 – it was actually a Nat/Lib promise before the 1995 election to hold a referendum to bring back an Upper House. When they rather unexpectedly won (eventually, after the Mindingburra by-election), they suddenly decided maybe it wasn’t such a good idea. They’ve never been back in government since (not that that is why). There is periodic talk of the desirability of bringing it back – and I think it would be desirable – but it is fairly improbable (perhaps unless there’s a hung parliament again, and if the Greens were part of it, they may push for that and/or PR).
As for this Newspoll and the next Qld election, there is some similarity with the federal level, where falling support for a Labor government is not translating into most of that support shifting across to the LNP. It is instead parking mostly with Greens and Independents. (and don’t forget Queensland already has 4 very well entrenched regional Independents – 3 of whom could be fairly categorised as conservative, the other perhaps more in the style of Oakeshott). It is quite possible that some other strong Independents could threaten some LNP seats in regional areas.
There are also already two disgruntled former Lib/Nat MPs who have gone Independent since the last election. Their electoral support following quitting has yet to be tested. Rob Messenger from Bundaberg has stayed Independent and could perhaps be portrayed as a bit of a maverick in the Bob Katter mould. The other, Aidan McLindon, is a first term MP in Beaudesert (a former Nationals rural stronghold now rapidly urbanising). He has set up his own party, called the Queensland Party. Again it’s hard to know how well he (and his party) will poll, but they certainly have the potential to splinter the LNP vote, especially under Qld’s optional preferential voting system.
As for the Greens, from my somewhat unobjective perspective, I think there is a chance – with a strong, well resourced, well focused campaign in the a few key areas – that the Greens would have some prospect of presenting a serious threat in perhaps up to 5 seats. I’m not saying they’d be likely to win 5 – and even 1 would be difficult – just saying they could be a credible contender. The Greens came in ahead of Labor in a cluster of polling booths which overlap with the state seats of Mt Coot-tha and Brisbane Central. The Greens also outpolled or came near the Libs in a cluster of booths which sit in the heart of the South Brisbane electorate (which is Anna Bligh’s).
And just to discount the myth that the Greens only do well in the inner city, the 3rd and 4th best results for the party in the federal election were in Sunshine Coast based seats. Voting figures which fit within state seats such as Glasshouse and Noosa (and Nicklin, but that is already very safely held by Peter Wellington, the aforementioned ‘Oakeshottian’ Independent) suggest the Greens could credibly position themselves as the main challenger to the incumbent. (All of these seats are ones where the Greens already have achieved creditable results in the previous state election).
Given the semi first past the post nature of an optional preferential voting system, the Newspoll is even worse for Labor than it would first appear. The collapse in their vote is bad enough. The fact that a big chunk of it has gone to Greens and others is of little benefit to them, as perhaps at least half of that will just get exhausted rather than come back in preferences – especially in the context of such widespread disillusionment.
But the lack of enthusiasm for (or even confidence in) the LNP Opposition can’t be discounted either. Splintering of the vote amongst strong regional Independents, and/or McLindon’s Qld Party is some areas, will also hurt them more under an optional preferential system. And while LNP Leader John-Paul Langbroek is a nice guy – and I don’t mean that as an insult or damning with faint praise – he is unlikely to galvanise the LNP base in the way Tony Abbott did.
This isn’t to discount the underlying uncertainty about the federal Coalition’s fitness to govern which was what prevented public disaffection with federal Labor from crossing over to the Coalition in sufficient strength to win them the election. It’s just that I suspect the same uncertainty about the fitness of the Qld LNP to govern at state level is also there, but they may not even get the benefit of the base galvanising that Abbott managed.
Having said all of that, it’s hard to see the LNP losing it from here. But perhaps just as will very likely happen in NSW, there could also be Labor seats lost to Greens and others, not just to the LNP.
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And an extra 2 seats could be added to get 13 7 member regions.
The only people advocating a return to an Upper House in Qld are frustrated LNP‘s and those who see a chance to wreak the same havoc out of all proportional to their support as they do in the Senate. There is no popular support for its return. Nor should there be.
Ask yourself: has unicameralism given Qld better or worse government over the past 70 years? Answer: much, much worse. Qld has a long history of authoritarian and/or corrupt state government, and much the worst record of the six states in almost every respect. Qld’s progress has been due to economic and demographic change, not good state government. Labor abolished the LC because it saw it as a bastion of upper-class privilege, which it had been in the 19C. But today uppper houses serve mainly as safeguards against corrupt, incompetent and authoritarian state government actions, of which Qld has more per capita than any other state. An upper house elected by PR would have put some much-needed restraints on the Bjelke-Petersen regime, the worst government in Australia in the 20C.
Psephos,
What is needed is accountable, representative government.
IMO this can be achieved with a model such as William has suggested, i.e. Hare-Clarke 7 member regions. Quota would be ~ 14.286%
Quotas small enough for Greens / local Indies to have a real show of represetation in a number of regions.
Would reduce the ‘two dogs barking’ effect.
Any government which stuffed up would quickly lose sufficient votes to be turfed at the next election.
This would also reduce the capacity for ‘gerrymander’ and need for / impact of redistributions.
For all of the same reasons I believe the indies and greens should be pushing for a similar system in the House of Reps ( Tasie would obviously remain as a 5 member region) in addition to the existing PR in the Senate.
Nobody seems to have picked up on the fact that Anna Bligh will restore full preferencing before the next election, the reasoning is that OPV confuses people.
It can be done by an act of parliament. I reckon it is a certainty.
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That would/will be psephologically significant.
It would probably help the ALP but also drive up the informal vote. It would also help the Greens if they get passed the ALP and/or LNP in any seats.
Below is the letter I sent to The Australian yesterday:
Below is the letter as published in the print version:
(The Weekend Australian, September 11, 2010)
The web version left out the first sentence for some reason.
The likelihood that Labor is going to lose the Queensland election is another reason for its bringing in an Upper House elected by PR to keep the ensuing LNP government accountable. Now is exactly the time to do it.
William, why would you prefer Hare-Clark to open-list PR?
Qld Opposition claims it is going to try for renewal.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/opposition-stalwarts-to-make-way-for-new-blood-20100920-15jlj.html