Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:

Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,197 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. [Really? Which school was that. My local school is (in)famous for churning out Fred Nile. ]

    LOL! Poor old Cleveland St has a lot to live down! 😉

    Ruddock, Garrett and Oakeshott all went to Barker College in Hornsby, Hamish.

  2. There’s a couple of rugged stories coming out of the West today. Palmer is on Q&A on ABC tonight.

    G_Parker From this morning’s paper: Clive Palmer says if he really wanted to influence Brendon Grylls he’d pick up the phone. http://bit.ly/cu3Zww 10 minutes ago via TweetDeck

    G_Parker And former CCC targets Brian Burke and Julian Grill say they aren’t suprised public hearings have led to a suicide. http://bit.ly/9bxnlD 8 minutes ago via TweetDeck

  3. Lizzie

    Yep. If an independent jumped ship they then would be hated by both parties supporters and hardly look like a strong-spined independent.

    If the Greens and Libs both get hardlined in the Senate it will make it difficult for the ALP to have a strong legislative agenda though.

  4. [If the Greens and Libs both get hardlined in the Senate it will make it difficult for the ALP to have a strong legislative agenda though.]

    They’d need to find one to begin with. It’s been embarassing watching Gillard try and answer what her top priorities are. She has none.

  5. blue-green:
    Perhaps he’ll improve with experience. So far my assessment is he looks good on paper.

    He’s just said (albeit indirectly) the coalition won’t be moving forward on climate change. Oops.

  6. To make the education jumble a bit more confusing, Chris Evans (responsible for tertiary education) will be taking control of the rollout of the primary school building upgrades under the BER.

  7. [They’d need to find one to begin with. It’s been embarassing watching Gillard try and answer what her top priorities are. She has none.]

    I got hammered by people here for suggesting that the Indies had more of a legislative agenda than the ALP.

    I have seen no sense of urgency or sense of big ideas to date. I fear that JG will fall into the managerial mode, if she is not already there.

  8. [confessions
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 12:50 pm | Permalink
    blue-green:
    Perhaps he’ll improve with experience. So far my assessment is he looks good on paper.

    He’s just said (albeit indirectly) the coalition won’t be moving forward on climate change. Oops.]

    I am sure someone like Frydenberg has some big ideas. I hope he doesn’t keep them under his hat.

    Or he may just be an overambitious cloud of hot air. We shall soon see.

  9. [ I fear that JG will fall into the managerial mode, if she is not already there.]

    Agreed. She has been praised on all sides for her consultative methods. I believe that Rudd as “inspiration guy” and Julia as 2IC were a good combination – if only Rudd’s “it all goes through me” had not interfered. I was definitely disappointed in Julia’s climb down on mining.

  10. blue-green

    On the basis that each minister will need to consult with each other more as their portfolios may overlap at times. Therefore creating a more consultative and involved ministry, rather than being in isolation.

  11. Victoria

    Interesting point. But when it comes to the current fad of a few ‘key deliverables’ ulitmately the Ministers spend their dosh and their effort where they are accountable.

    Making Ministers speak to each other is a good thing though. It is a bit sad that this point needs to be reinforced though. Cabinets tend to be a key feature of the Westminister system.

  12. Bit of vacuous, looking forward type thing…if the HoR runs its approximate full term, the next election will be Sept 2013…which is also the expiry of the customary 5 year term of the current Governor General

  13. blue-green

    I believe Julia is going to make sure that this cabinet will operate in a much more broader consultative manner. It is the only way to keep everyone in the loop and part of the action.

  14. b_g
    [Can she get another go?]
    I imagine so. The term of the GG’s appointment is at HM’s pleasure, so anything could go.

    Having said that QB would be 71 in 2013, so she may have had enough of tea parties, consitutional crises and what not by then!

  15. blue-green

    As Julia said at the of the Leadership change. She will never discuss it. I suspect we have to wait until her and Rudd’s retirements before introspection.

  16. Laocoon

    [Having said that QB would be 71 in 2013, so she may have had enough of tea parties, consitutional crises and what not by then!]

    There would have to be some good ones around. Will there be a mood for an Indigenous GG? We have had the military and the religious ones.

    I doubt there is a mood for a Republic.

  17. Can somebody ask Rabbott how Ministers can be faceless men? Abbott and Hockey have gone bonkers. The whole idea of faceless men was supposed to be that unelected people were exerting influence on the Party.

  18. I was really looking forward to the AFL / NRL grandfinals. but now I’ll have to watch Mark Arbib as Sports Minister pretending to be a man of the people. Jesus wept.

    Julia has obviously rewarded him by giving him a portfolio that will let him burnish his tattered image and pretend to be a retail politician. But, of course, it’s a hopeless case. This is going to be awfully painful

  19. My guess is that the SMH probably pays Paul Sheahan somewhere between $150,000 and $250,000 a year for his right-wing ranting. Surely any readers who find that sort of stuff interesting defected to the Oz long ago. So what’s in it for the herald? Has anyone got any thoughts?

  20. [rosa
    Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 1:15 pm | Permalink
    I was really looking forward to the AFL / NRL grandfinals. but now I’ll have to watch Mark Arbib as Sports Minister pretending to be a man of the people. Jesus wept.

    Julia has obviously rewarded him by giving him a portfolio that will let him burnish his tattered image and pretend to be a retail politician. But, of course, it’s a hopeless case. This is going to be awfully painful]

    I did think it was more to push him outside the world of focus groups and actually have conversations with people.

  21. b_g
    [There would have to be some good ones around. Will there be a mood for an Indigenous GG? We have had the military and the religious ones]
    If the political situation in 2013 is looking like the current one, then I suspect a lawyer with a “sound” understanding of constitutional conventions might be the go…having said that, Whitlam might have thought that about Kerr 😆

    Based on QB’s appointment, the announcement might be in April 2013

  22. [If the political situation in 2013 is looking like the current one, then I suspect a lawyer with a “sound” understanding of constitutional conventions might be the go…having said that, Whitlam might have thought that about Kerr ]

    Maybe, William Dean changed the nature of the purely legal role though. I think we expect more from them as statesmen these days.

  23. VICTORIA – I’m sure that’s the theory. But I have trouble believing there are many SMH readers as far to the right as Sheahan. But, on the other hand, I suppose it’s better than having a right-wing commentator who makes any sense.

  24. victoria
    [The Libs are above party politics. They are honourable, honest and full of integrity]
    Geoffrey Barker in a pretty tough opinion piece in the AFR goes after this theme:
    [Angry Coalition {sic} leaders are barely concealing their desire to tear down the Gilard minority government at the earliest opportunity. One giveaway is their repeated clain that the government lacks “legitimacy”.

    It is a false cpntention and reflects a dangerous double game being played by Tony Abbott and his colleagues. As in 1975, but in very different circumstances, Coalition {sic} leaders are revealing their contempt for the conventions of Australian democracy…

    The opposition is not stupid; it is hypocritical and opportuntistic…

    Abbott would be better advised to focus on renewing his own party by developing coherent policies and finding museum space for sacred relics like Bronwyn Bishoip, Philip Ruddock and Kevin Andrews.

    But genial and prgamatic Tony is reverting already to angry, anarchic Tony…]

    Hardly surprising when Abbott used the term “ferocious” in his “concession” speech

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