Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:

Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,197 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. Dogma – was that at Waitara? Our kids used to go to the pub there to listen to John Williamson. We were amazed that they liked him because they only played headbanging stuff at home. Of course that stuff is now so mild when we hear it.

  2. For those who missed it. Gary Morgan:

    “Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election).

    “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.

  3. Blackburnpseph – I think the North coast seats are actually a fair bellweather of the nation. 2 ALP 1 Lib 1Nat 1 Independent.

    What I think is interesting is that an independent got 10% in Cowper despite having no campaign and being unknown in the southern half of the electorate ( I could add that he came from Woolgoolga and was the type of chap who keeps his head gear on during the ode at the RSL – if you take my meaning). It had to be admitted that he got most of his vote from the ALP but I think this is a further sign that the Nats will shortly be history here – I think the Libs will be a better chance then.

  4. Best band I ever saw live was “Nansing & The Jam Tarts” one of the girls married Ben Elton I think. Beaconsville tavern. Fremantle or just Beaconsville. Frank?. I think it was the pub Robert Drewe went on about.

  5. carole King. America oh and the girls

    Oh saw the eagles in Melbourne

    the beach boys but oh was to paraletic to remember so he just informed me. as 16 years old dear o me.
    Carole King was about two years ago she was amazing.

  6. They say that reclycling is a virtue so here is a slightly edited version of a piece I posted earlier in the week. It still seems apt. Have a good weekend bludgers 🙂

    SAID SHANAHAN
    by Socrates

    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Shanahan,
    In accents most forlorn,
    As the global financial crisis began,
    September two years gone.

    The opposition stood about,
    Coat-collars to the ears,
    And talked of homes, and jobs, all lost,
    As it had done for years.

    “It’s looking crook,” Joe Hockey spoke;
    “Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
    For never since the banks went broke
    Has the economy been so bad.”

    “It’s poor, all right,” said young Turnbull,
    With which astute remark
    He pressed the accelerator with his heel
    And found his merc a park.

    And so around the chorus ran
    “It’s all Rudd’s fault, no doubt.”
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Shanahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

    “If jobs don’t come this month,” said Milne,
    And cleared his throat to speak –
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Shanahan,
    “If jobs don’t come this week.”

    A heavy silence seemed to steal
    Between the two at this remark;
    And each man starred into his screen,
    And typed something quite dark.

    “We want a quarter of growth, we do,”
    Andrew Robb said quite aghast;
    Barnaby Joyce maintained “we wanted two
    To put the danger past”.

    “If we don’t get the Liberals in,
    Or get the Labor Party out,
    We’ll all be rooned,” said Shanahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

    In quick time the cash splash fell;
    And soon in the next year
    Money for batts, schools and roads as well
    It eased the people’s fear.

    And through that year projects began,
    And stock moved from store shelves
    And cash registers rang and the Rudd-Swan plan
    Kept the people employed quite well.

    Jobs were created all day long,
    And people found new work,
    Till everyone knew the recession was gone.
    The Labor stimulus had worked!

    So Abbott came and the lies he ran,
    Huge debt was the first crock;
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Shanahan,
    “If this spending doesn’t stop.”

    But stop it did, under Kevin’s plan;
    And fears of debt were farce.
    Next a climate bill that was agreed before,
    Yet the Senate would not pass.

    And the election came with Rudd not there,
    With Liberal-hopes immense,
    The boats! The waste! And other scares;
    Labor offered no defence.

    And, oh, the frowns on every face,
    Gillard, Abbott on the precipice.
    When the votes were tallied for each sitting place
    It was seventy-two a piece.

    Yet in the country three Members wise
    Discoursed the merits of both,
    And each man spoke for eternity,
    Before ending Abbott’s hopes.

    “There’ll be new elections for sure, me man,
    There will, without a doubt;
    We’ll all be rooned,” said Shanahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

    With apology to John O’Brien, “Said Hanrahan” 1921

  7. grey@55

    Best band I ever saw live was “Nansing & The Jam Tarts” one of the girls married Ben Elton I think. Beaconsville tavern. Fremantle or just Beaconsville. Frank?. I think it was the pub Robert Drewe went on about.

    You mean Beaconsfield – and Anna Gare is now the host of Junior Masterchef and is the partner of Luc Longley.

    I think Mr Elton might be a near neighbour of Billbowe since they both reside in Fremantle 🙂

  8. [Best band I ever saw live was “Nansing & The Jam Tarts” one of the girls married Ben Elton I think.]
    Sophie Gare was in the Boom Babies.

  9. [Some of you lot probably have fond memories of Vera Lynn from your youth as well right?]
    We’ll meet again, don’t know where, don’t know when, but I know we’ll meet again one sunny day.
    Tralalalalalalallalala. 😛

  10. The AEC TPP counting has now covered a few small country booths in
    O’Connor.

    It is very early days in this count but so far the ALP is not doing quite
    as well as it should. I expect the ALP to get 31% of the TPP vote but
    it could be down to 25% on these early trends. If that kept up then
    it might mean a drop of about 6000 in the final National ALP winning
    margin. (Too early to say what will happen though).

    The problem so far for the ALP TPP in O’Connor is maybe that a number of the
    Greens voters are preferencing Crook above the ALP. We will see. Maybe this
    is only happening in the really rural booths.

    I notice that the AEC is describing the TPP count in O’Connor as
    ALP versus “Liberal/National Coalition” and yet they are counting
    ALP versus Crook.

    I wonder if someone should say something.

  11. Grey

    I remember seeing the Jam Tarts in Sydney in my youth – might have been the Mosman Hotel – and I think one of them did marry Ben Elton. I remember they sang a song about Dianella , and another about a Toyota Corolla.

  12. What a bunch of Nutters:

    Peter Lalor AussieTeaParty

    must go and drink. back later #auspol we’re celebrating email bombing Jokeshot and it’s the first of many. The bastards WILL be kept honest 6 minutes ago via web

  13. [Interestingly the Oz didn’t mention that Brogden publicly offered him a place in the Liberal Party ( and an assumed cabinet post) before the 2003 election.]

    OakshottC Remember that the OO staff sit together around a table and create the news. Didn’t say anything about “gather” or “report” or “analyse” or “check the accuracy of”. Just “create”. And nobody, for that story, created the embarrassing John Brogden.

  14. Driving home tonight heard on the radio that the coalition agreement has *not* been re-negotiated yet, and so as such isn’t in force. Probably explains why nobody can find a copy of it online. I’m assuming it will be made public once it has been re-negotiated, and entered into again by both parties…

  15. [Sophie Gare was in the Boom Babies.]

    They were a great band, they went to Adelaide I saw them at the Astor. The singer was Elvis Costello ish and the girls rocked.

  16. Dr Good
    Posted Friday, September 10, 2010 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    “The AEC TPP counting has now covered a few small country booths in
    O’Connor……

    I wonder if someone should say something.”

    How about to Abbott , Govt IS formed by who has suport of th most elected HoR MPs

  17. OzPol

    Many in NSW today lament that John Brogden self destructed as he probably would have won the 2007 state election and saved 6 million people from that rabble there now.

  18. [The AEC TPP counting has now covered a few small country booths in
    O’Connor.]

    I thought they’d declared O’Connor already?

    From memory, in 2007 election there was only one town in the whole of Tuckey country where the ALP vote was higher than the Libs. So I wouldn’t expect the Labor vote to be doing well there?

  19. Murdoch watch and today that rotten newspaper has continued its crap by attacking the Gillard Government on its front page yet again.
    Oh how terrible NBN workers will be actually paid to much money. How does economy function Murdoch perhaps if no one got paid they wouldn’t buy your rotten papers. Earlier in the week it was deregulating the labor market.
    This time Oakshott also got ripped into. He has declined the offer ministry offer, he should of accepted it. Bugger the News Limited idoits.

  20. [Socrates
    Posted Friday, September 10, 2010 at 6:03 pm | Permalink
    They say that reclycling is a virtue so here is a slightly edited version of a piece I posted earlier in the week. It still seems apt. Have a good weekend bludgers ]

    hope you dont mind socrates, but have copied and printed for our granddaughers scrap book about these times, So just think she will mostly likely read this about the time she votes.
    She is 2 now.

  21. confessions

    Thanks for that news on the potential coalition agreement between Liberals and Nationals.

    I will be interested to see if one is agreed

    I hope the MSM then desist with their (apparent) error of saying the “Coalition”

  22. Some people here have a decision to make!! Does Labor have a song??

    [“Secular items are never to be sung or played at a Catholic funeral, such as romantic ballads, pop or rock music, political songs, football club songs,” the guidelines state.

    “A Catholic funeral is not ‘a celebration of the life of Mary Brown’ or ‘a memorial service for Mary Brown’. These designations should never appear in media announcements or on the booklet.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/10/3008278.htm

  23. Diogenes@80

    Some people here have a decision to make!! Does Labor have a song??

    “Secular items are never to be sung or played at a Catholic funeral, such as romantic ballads, pop or rock music, political songs, football club songs,” the guidelines state.

    “A Catholic funeral is not ‘a celebration of the life of Mary Brown’ or ‘a memorial service for Mary Brown’. These designations should never appear in media announcements or on the booklet.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/10/3008278.htm

    There goes all the Wog Funerals who play this:

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcrfvP11Hbo 

  24. Apparently Abbott has told his minions to lay off the Indies. I expect the Australian will follow suit with glowing support for Windsor and Oakshott.

  25. Laocoon: That news item was followed by the Nationals saying they want increased representation on Tone’s front bench. Not necessarily in Cabinet, but in the shadow ministry. Should give Tone a few headaches! 🙂

  26. Brogden lost me when he once said on TV that government budgets must ALWAYS be in
    surplus – he was a complete noong who would have had the state in worse shape.

    I just caught the tail end of Oakeshott being interviewed on local TV wtte that he didn’t take the job because the Nats were being so disreputable that they would bring the regional package down in their attempts to destroy him. A pretty good attack on the Nat’s priorities.

  27. How is that ungracious dill Tuckey ripping into the guy, i wonder if he actually congratulated him on his win.
    Fair dinkum that Tuckey is a terrible individual.

  28. [My dad took me along to Glen Campbell, when Glen was BIG. Is that impressive?]

    Yep.

    I saw Gordon Lightfoot, but my biggest claim to fame is that I saw the Beatles live.

  29. A bit off topic.

    My son (with wicked sense of humour) gave me the DVD “The Howard Years” for father’s day.

    I watched it today. Plenty of information and actual film of the times.

    Most interesting, the worst behaved demonstrators were not the Wharfies (who lost their jobs) or other ALP types.

    Absolutely thuggish were the gun lobby demonstrators who were objecting to the gun law reforms after the Port Arthur massacre.

    You live and learn in this game.

  30. [A pretty good attack on the Nat’s priorities.]

    Great reasoning from Oakeshott. He basically said he wants to see a regional support program work, and if him remaining outside the ministry is the difference between it getting up vs failing, he’s best not taking up Gillard’s offer of a ministry. Contrast him with Barnaby’s hysterics this morning.

  31. confessions

    5/13 current Nationals are already on the frontbench!

    Still, not as many headaches if there is no agreement at all 👿

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