Essential Research has come good with a final set of polling figures, and in two-party terms they’re no different from Monday’s, with Labor leading 51-49. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 38 per cent and the Coalition to 43 per cent, with the Greens up two to 12 per cent. The poll also gauges reasons for vote choice, whether respondents’ opinions of the leaders have gone up or down since the election was called (down in both cases) and firmness of vote, the latter confirming the impression of other polls that Labor support is “softer” than for the Coalition. I am also informed The West Australian will tonight publish a Westpoll that will show Labor trailing in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in the race to nab Canning from the Liberals. Then there’s this from the Courier-Mail:
Labor began the campaign with a worst-case scenario of the Coalition winning 10 Queensland seats. But party sources now believe the loss could be contained to three Queensland seats. This comes as internal ALP polling this week suggests as many as eight or nine seats could fall in NSW. LNP sources confirmed that late deciding voters were opting for Labor in many Queensland marginals. The LNP’s only “almost certain” gains have narrowed to Leichhardt, Flynn and Dawson. But Labor sources dispute Dawson, where they say they have their nose in front. But they say the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor seat of Forde would be “extremely hard” to retain. Labor also is worried about the bayside seat of Bonner and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert but is confident of holding Longman, Petrie and Brisbane.
My reading of the situation is that Labor’s position in Sydney seems to have soured over the final week, with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government. Bennelong is almost universally rated as lost for Labor, Lindsay will probably go too, and there might even be trouble for them in Greenway. However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens – although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal. But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear. Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll was quoted in The Australian today saying the “rusted on” vote at the current time is about 10 per cent lower than usual at about 60 per cent. The Australian’s Samantha Maiden offered that “an estrogen-fuelled surge of female voters has been cited as the secret weapon Gillard can count on to fall over the line”.
Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that “70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day – in autumn or summer – dawned dry across the country”.
[Regarding ABC bias. A friend of mine said he watched Virginia on ABC2 this morning rip Scott Morrison apart this morning regarding proposed education cuts.]
does she have a child of university age just wondering???
In Higgins (Vic) I’m expecting a 1 to 2 pt swing from Labor to Greens, and a 1 to 2 pt swing form Liberal to Green.
But I’m also expecting a 1 to 2 pt swing from Labor to Liberal.
Thus I’m predicting Greens up 2 to 4 pt, Labor down 2 to 4 pt, and Liberal up 1 to down 1.
This is party due to the by-election, where O’Dwyer (Liberal) ran a very effective campaign, and Labor did not run.
Are there any other seats where people think that some Liberals will go Green, and this will be partly hidden by some Labor going Liberal?
Ron
Just for once can you back up the drivel that you post here. I’ll quote Gillard
“I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market-based mechanism,” she said of the next parliament. “I rule out a carbon tax.”
The robocalls are back in the field. Apparently from both sides. Confirmed seats that have been robocalled include
Labor calls to Wright
Labor calls to Petrie
Liberal calls to Ryan
My Monte Carlo Simulation of current CentreBet individual seat odds comes up with 80.2 seats for Labour over 20,000 trials.
[ABC coverage in this campaign has been the most biased in the history of public broadcasting. Its remarkable. God knows whose driving it.]
I was mocked by some on this blog several months ago when I said that the ABC was campaigning to bring down the Labor government.
[56 jenauthor
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:32 pm | Permalink
Anyone been following Poss’s thread on the betting. Coalition is beginning to rebound back out in the betting.
Poss says the data says ALP win.]
Jenauthor will you put the poss link here have to go now
[They are worried about Leichhardt, thats it.]
Are you saying they’re not worried about any other marginal seat or that that is all you have heard at this stage?
[Just got the gos from Qld ALP.
They are worried about Leichhardt, thats it.]
That will be remarkable if it comes to pass.
The latest essential state by state breakdown (for what it is worth) gives labour 77 seats
ruawake @99
[They are worried about Leichhardt, thats it.]
If that’s true that is great. I also suspect Leichardt is hard to poll.
There is a high percentage of indigenous voters there who aren’t contactable by phone. Many of whom also wont take kindly to Abbott banging on about Noel Pearson – Pearson is not popular among many of them for some reason. It may not be as bad for the ALP there as a result.
getluv@95 – the target is largely irrelevant provided that the mechanism (ETS/carbon tax) has the ability to be scaled up to whatever targets are agreed.
Honestly, there is no point in committing to a big target without the rest of the world.
Where there IS a point is in committing to a mechanism that can be adjusted to a big target when there is a global agreement, and getting the carbon accounting framework in place, along with a definite price signal to start pushing business in the right direction.
Obsessing over the target gets us nowhere.
It’s also worth pointing out that 5% below 1990 levels is actually a 30-ish% reduction over business-as-usual, so it isn’t actually a trivial reduction if achieved.
Still, I’d advocate voting Greens this election to apply as much pressure as possible to the Labor party…
Are we likely to get a Roy Morgan on 7 tonight?
[ABC coverage in this campaign has been the most biased in the history of public broadcasting. Its remarkable. God knows whose driving it.
I was mocked by some on this blog several months ago when I said that the ABC was campaigning to bring down the Labor governmen]
cuppa when jullia is returned we should be getting on to our senators i have already spoken to one and it was suggested we email write and mention the abc watch on the political sword.
I think bob brown would also help something in the lines of the senate estimates perhaps to see what sort of tax payers money is spent on news as compared to drama etc..
[Are you saying they’re not worried about any other marginal seat or that that is all you have heard at this stage?]
They are worried about losing one seat where they have a stiitng member.
[Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:59 pm | Permalink
The latest essential state by state breakdown (for what it is worth) gives labour 77 seats]
so tell me i get very confused what would that work out to us / them
PS @ 2 – I wonder whether they were at the same one at the same time and whether they knew each other.
😉
[They are worried about losing one seat where they have a stiitng member.]
That’s amazing.
[They are worried about losing one seat where they have a stiitng membe]
so does that mean we loose one seat in qld only but retain what we have.
ALP Govt my say. The magic number is a minimum of 75 seats.
Friday, August 20, 2010 at 5:01 pm | Permalink
PS @ 2 –
you read my mind chinda
[ALP Govt my say. The magic number is a minimum of 75 seats.]
Well 76 will ensure a stable govt.
[ALP Govt my say. The magic number is a minimum of 75 seats.]
so we can win with 75
so you guys here that know whats what should be able to work that
out considering what ru said about qld
I saw a bit on Ch10 tonight just then. I thought the graphic was 52/48 ALP/Libs from Galaxy
@my say 123
Yes – 75 for Labor. But for the Libs its actually 76. That’s necessary to make up for all the times the Rabbott is going to falls asleep drunk in his office and miss the crucial vote.
“with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government”
yep and I cant help thinking this was an Arbib-Bitar special with the NSW govt uppermost in their mind rather than the REAL GAME.
NSW Govt = dead.
Federal Govt = alive.
I dont know how much more clearly I can put that.
Plus it wasnt a pre-approved tactic here at PB, where the only sensible campaign strategies have all been cooked up – as far as I can see! 🙂
so we are now saying only a one seat loss in qld as of a few weeks ago they where saying 5etc ???
Boundary man, that’s ciorrect
see poss:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/08/20/penultimate-polls-and-the-greensurge/comment-page-1/#comment-23102
I now i see it was the one from this morning.
thanks kit’
getluv
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
“@Ron She’s only guaranteeing that a 5% reduction on the table despite Garnaut saying there should be a 25% reduction”
Most of youse Greens post fibs incl Diogenous
READ th bloody Prof Garnaut Final Report recomendations proving your claim is crap
Garnaut’s recommend was an ETS (and not a carbon tax which he ALSO examind ) and also DID recomend that rate be 5% UNTIL World agrees to higher cuts
Rudd then said public pre Copenhaggen that oz will adopt a 25% cut if World via IPCC so agrees to a deel You Green lot reely is misleading
I just got an automated FUD “The Abbotts are coming!” call on behalf of the ALP. This is GREENWAY FFS!
Something’s up…
Here a prediction for ya: MSM commentariat to look like complete asses by 730pm.
Well 76 or more is better my say. At 75 the ALP would probably have to offer the Speaker to an independent. Rob Oakshott possibly.
[Oscar
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 5:06 pm | Permalink
@my say 123
Yes – 75 for Labor. But for the Libs its actually 76. That’s necessary to make up for all the times the Rabbott is going to falls asleep drunk in his office and miss the crucial vote]
oscar dont tease me now i am confused i even forget how many seats are in the house i am trying to take away 77 from what ever my brain is nearly dead,
so pleae say what would they have if we have 77
[NSW Govt = dead.]
The least they could of done is sell their electricity assets and build some infrastructure – what a complete waste of time they have been
The bouncing polls.
There is serious concern that second wave recession is on the way. An Abbott government would further push Australia towards the economic edge. The Greens will most likely hold a balance in the Senate which does not take office until July 2011. e can expect that Abbott faced with a deep economic recession will seek to hold a double dissolution in November next year b ;laming the Greens for being obstructionist. He will go to the polls to avoid the repercussions of the second wave recession. As Abbott tries to wind back the Safety net the Unions will push for wage increases to offset inflationary presser and rise in costs. All adding to a volatile cocktail. A hung Parliament is not a good prospect. Nor is an Abbott Government.
MWH 102 –
by the way, if I remember you wrote a lot of stuff on TV digital signals last year – what have you heard re NBN effect in “tech-head” land (a land Tony has never been to!)
Qld LNP goss.
They reckon Leichhardt Dawson and Flynn are in the bag. But are worried about other seats “off the radar”. Whatever that means.
pepsi and coke!
Classic!
What if you don’t like cola?
[just got an automated FUD “The Abbotts are coming!” call on behalf of the ALP. This is GREENWAY FFS!
Something’s up…]
what are u talking about
133 – Well Greenway’s marginal isn’t it?
[ruawake
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 5:09 pm | Permalink
Qld LNP goss.
They reckon Leichhardt Dawson and Flynn are in the bag. But are worried about other seats “off the radar”. Whatever that means.]
dam it now more confused
lefty e – I hope you are rightQ
lkefty e @ 134
[Here a prediction for ya: MSM commentariat to look like complete asses by 730pm.]
I have a gut feeling you are right. It feels like 2004 again to me.
ALP to lose around Sydney, do better in rural NSW, not do as badly in Qld as first thought and pick up in Vic and SA. Parkes may prove a shock to the Nats too.
[Here a prediction for ya: MSM commentariat to look like complete asses by 730pm.]
They have been looking like complete asses for quite some time.
On ABC website right now:
[Julia Gillard is using the last day of the campaign to mount a strident and negative attack on Tony Abbott. ]
As opposed to all those positive attacks….
Despite all Uhlmann’s talk about the Coalition’s momentum and Labor campaigning in Greenway, he still thinks the ALP will get over the line.
Surely Solomon (N.T.) remains a worry and I would be concerned about Bass which was a very close race last time. Perhaps Braddon also must be of some concern.
[All I can say is, if Labor gets up tomorrow and they commence the building of the Parra-Epping line, they will be able to use it to turn it on the Tories next time around.]
Yep. The minute I heard all the “it’ll never happen!” hysteria, I thought to myself, “Julia, make that priority number one.”
It will make everyone STFU on that issue and it will also add some meat to Labor’s bones when it come to sorting out these sort of long-standing infrastructure issues. Once the NBN gets rolled right out and the BER is completed, it will provide lasting and indisputable proof that, if you want your infrastructure fixed, you need a Labor government.
Also there is the not inconsiderable notion of being able to say “ner ner na ner ner” to all the naysayers 😀