Essential Research has come good with a final set of polling figures, and in two-party terms they’re no different from Monday’s, with Labor leading 51-49. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 38 per cent and the Coalition to 43 per cent, with the Greens up two to 12 per cent. The poll also gauges reasons for vote choice, whether respondents’ opinions of the leaders have gone up or down since the election was called (down in both cases) and firmness of vote, the latter confirming the impression of other polls that Labor support is softer than for the Coalition. I am also informed The West Australian will tonight publish a Westpoll that will show Labor trailing in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in the race to nab Canning from the Liberals. Then there’s this from the Courier-Mail:
Labor began the campaign with a worst-case scenario of the Coalition winning 10 Queensland seats. But party sources now believe the loss could be contained to three Queensland seats. This comes as internal ALP polling this week suggests as many as eight or nine seats could fall in NSW. LNP sources confirmed that late deciding voters were opting for Labor in many Queensland marginals. The LNP’s only almost certain gains have narrowed to Leichhardt, Flynn and Dawson. But Labor sources dispute Dawson, where they say they have their nose in front. But they say the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor seat of Forde would be “extremely hard” to retain. Labor also is worried about the bayside seat of Bonner and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert but is confident of holding Longman, Petrie and Brisbane.
My reading of the situation is that Labor’s position in Sydney seems to have soured over the final week, with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government. Bennelong is almost universally rated as lost for Labor, Lindsay will probably go too, and there might even be trouble for them in Greenway. However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal. But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear. Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll was quoted in The Australian today saying the rusted on vote at the current time is about 10 per cent lower than usual at about 60 per cent. The Australian’s Samantha Maiden offered that an estrogen-fuelled surge of female voters has been cited as the secret weapon Gillard can count on to fall over the line.
Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that 70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day in autumn or summer dawned dry across the country.
338 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”
Dave @ 282. Sorry, It was a lame attempt at sarcasm on my part. Forgot the smiley. I am feeling very confident but thanks for the buck up, anyhow.
[What broadband services are really worth $3,000 per person to receive? Not $3,000 for some people to receive, but for EVERYONE.]
Again you listen to too much propaganda MWH. The initial outlay for the taxpayer is $26 million, not $43 for starters. And it will recoup that with sales to service providers. It is very important that a private entity does NOT own the backbone, as we’ll get the Telstra style monopoly back and will again see poor service and overpricing.
Morgan 51-49 ALP
A swing of 1.7% percent will give the Libs 13 seats making it 75 seats for Labor and a hung parliament, but Labor will get McEwen, that is the only certain seat.
so it may be 76 seats and thus keeping all its members on green tea, green leafy vegetables and a fitness plan and to not act stupidly so they have to resign… Labor wants no by elections…
And yeah, Im back. Could stay away for 10 hours 😀
Last night on The Footy Show she was cheered. Fatty Vautin seemed quite smitten. This is an audience of blokes under 40, mostly. It was actually quite encouraging.
My roofer from Mt. Druitt rang me today, out of the blue, to tell me not to worry. He was sticking with Labor. Dunno what brought that on, but I’ll take the vote.
51-49. Biggish sample too. How can ALP be ahead in NSW? Seems weird to me, and 60+% TPP in Tassie?
And they also mentioned the Footy oval in Grayndler and that they shouuld vote for the ALP as well.
When is Nielsen coming out? I want Nielsen to be 53/54 ALP. Not because I think that will be the result but just to spook Poss.
[And getting a fast connection is one thing, but this does not make it cheaper to access the 70% of content that comes from overseas. I’ve not heard any discussion about USAGE costs.]
OK, so let\’s talk usage costs.
Internode\’s cheapest NBN plan:
25 Mbps download 2 Mbps upload, 15 GB quota a month, cost, $29.95 a month
Internode\’s cheapest ADSL2 plan (not available on all phone lines):
10 GB quota a month, cost $39.95 a month, plus line rental fee
And of course, it is extremely doubtful that an ADSL2 connection will get anywhere near 25 Mbps download.
I’m expecting the AEC website (and the ABC graphics) to show the swing figures from the 2007 election (and not the bi-election).
If they don’t the swing figures will look ridiculous as Labor will go from zero to about 30%, and both Liberal and Green will show massive falls.
Looks like it’s shaping up as 51-49 to the ALP. We’ll have to see what the completed Newspoll and Nielsen say.
It will come down to whoever’s marginal seats campaign is the best.
Brisoz @ 282
Sorry I obviously didn’t do sarcasm too well. See my post to Dave later in response to his comment. My point was actually that Minchin and Dolly are bare-faced liers so if they were saying it was going to be a coalition loss, then it was all over for the Govt. Feeble attempt at wit. Sorry to spook people.
Via Poss – Morgan would result in 80 seats to the ALP 🙂
7news just gave Julia Gillard a free kick.
BH: That is positive news about Paterson. I have to say, I’m looking forward to tomorrow night!
[and 60+% TPP in Tassie?]
That’s plausible. It was just over 56% last time.
Either way, Tassie’s numbers have little effect on the overall national 2PP
Bowman and Dickinson might be ALP in QLD>
According to Skynews.
On western Sydney being so restive (record Penrith byelection was only a few weeks back) apart from the “bogan” element (whatver that is supposed to be) and the defintiely lousey state govt, an economic consideration is that it is bearing a fair part of the negative aspects of the 2-speed Australian economy.
WA and QLD (& the Hunter) have mining. Melbourne has had stronger house price growth (so people feel “richer”). Western Sydney has high absolute house prices but not much growth, higher interest rates, anaemic economic growth (GFC; low house starts)
[“An unusually high 9% of electors are still undecided about how they will vote at the election.”]
Morgan says it all, why is Tony snoozing at home?
[They really don’t have a clue. There’s more expertise here at PB than in a thousand overpaid, pin-stripe-suited “Political Editors” with plummy voices.]
That’s what happens to journos who participate in the political process instead of reporting it. They are so entrenched in the story their judgement is screwed.
I almost ripped the radio out of my car when the journo was making excuses for the Rabbott escaping scrutiny.
[Bowman and Dickinson might be ALP in QLD>]
I always knew Angie Dickinson would do the right thing.
What the was last Morgan?
Laurie Oakes just called it for Abbott, according to Twitter.
[How can ALP be ahead in NSW?]
Because they will do well in parts of regional NSW. Even possibly picking up seats. You guys have not been listening! 🙁
7news just gave Julia Gillard a free kick.
Pure supposition and worth what people paid to read it. If a week in a long time in politics 6 years is an eternity. 🙂
Laurie Oakes said on 9News
Abbott win is most likely option, followed by hung parliament and then ALP win
So why are the Libs so hated down south in TasLabmania?
[My roofer from Mt. Druitt rang me today, out of the blue, to tell me not to worry]
But BB, you must have laid it on real thick for a Sydney builder to call you 😉
No worries Allan – it did seem out of character with your normal posts 🙂
[What the was last Morgan?]
The Last of the Morgans was the great chief Chingachgook 🙁
Evening bludgers. I can report that Queanbeyan pre-poll is as cold as Xmas in Iceland, but that people were queuing up to shake Mike Kelly’s hand.
Also my SA spy says the ALP is increasingly confident about Boothby but regard Sturt as an outside chance only. Pyne has spent enough money to feed Africa for a year.
Laocoon@320, yes hence the point of the mining tax of course. Very sobering to see how excellent economic policy in this respect won so few points in what passes for political discourse. Re this, thank you to their ABC, thank you Murdoch. (And in contrast, a sincere thank you to Ross Gittens)
Bushfire Bill @ 306. ell done.
Unfortunately I didn’t have much luck in my attempt yesterday to try and explain in a friendly manner that the batts, BER etc were not the disasters they have been portrayed by the media and opposition. Somehow the topic had come up in conversation with an older lady I often meet whilst walking my dog – she has 2 King Charles spaniels. I thought I had her around to my way of thinking but she just said “So you’ll be voting Labor, then!” I said yes. End of conversation! This morning when we met on the dog walk, I said hello to her and she just walked straight past me as if I wasn’t there.
What a shame that some people can get so hung up that they can get so offended but I won’t lose any sleep over it. She’s entitled to her view, as am I.
ell done = well done!
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