Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Melbourne

    Postal votes issued (Returned uinkown)

    State Enrolment, Sum of AEC and Parties. AEC, Country Liberal, Greens, Labor, Liberal, National, Other Party. TOTAL to date (Inc GPV)

    VIC, MELBOURNE, 6305, 2594, 0, 0, 1328, 2375, 4, 4, 7348

  2. In Melbourne 19306 prepolls recorded. That close to 20% of the electorate..
    add to that the 6-7,000 postals most tagged Liberal.

  3. [Punters have (as at 11.50pm) outlaid $1.4million on Betfair’s overall winner market alone. So the Betfair market is quite substantial.]
    Only out by $1.4 mill.

  4. “add to that the 6-7,000 postals most tagged Liberal.”

    That may well be nursing homes or retirement villages. I don’t know the demographics of Melbourne all that well but that was always the case in the former seat of Lowe in NSW.

  5. Well the bunting is out and the pollsters are about to commence voting. Which polling organization will get it right?

    William are you able to present a summary of the polling agencies and their best guess over the last two weeks. Maybe you can offer the Pollbludger Award and recognition to to whoever comes in the closest. Pollster of the year.

    Strange they did not publish the undecided stats.

  6. Just created my own Senate HTV card and placed Cheryl Kernot after the ALP, then Australian Democrats, DLP, Senator on Line, 4 Independents followed by the Greens (19-24).

  7. [Diogenes
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    I’m guessing the Truce will be over tomorrow esp if Labor loses a few seats because less than 80% of Greens prefs flow to them. It could get a bit ugly here.]

    Perhaps and perhaps the labor party right will try and blame the Greens, I suspect however the fireworks in the Labor party will be more fun to watch.

  8. The Greens are irrelevant to the lower house. They do not contribute to the Senate vote either. The Greens national vote will be 10-12%.

    In spite the efforts of the ABC media the contest in Melbourne is between the Liberal Party and the Greens with a margin of 0.67% The Greens are expected to poll around 26% with the Democrats below 1.2%.

    Family First will poll around 2% and this will flow on to the LNP. The LNP had a swing of 1.6% against it in 2007. This will come back and be added to by an influx of Liberal Voters now residing in Docklands. The Greens would need in excess of 32% a swing of 9% to be in a position to win the seat of Melbourne.

  9. News from the battle lines in Chifley. When I arrived the high school booth in the eastern end at 7:45 the queues were longer than I have ever seen there before trailing up the drive.

    Then from 8 the flow has been non-stop. Early on loads of Filipinas clutching only Liberal and/or CDP HTVs and brusquely rejecting ALP and GRN ones. Often not making eye contact they clearly were determined to vote for the Pinoy Venus.

    All morning the flow has been non-stop. Initially it seemed that it was like 1996 or 2004 with folks only wanting the right of centre HTVs but as the morning wore on the mood has changed with people taking all or only ALP and GRN tickets. Some people came and asked for GRN HTVs especially which is always encouraging.

    Very windy in Blacktown with a cold wind from the south. Whose idea was it to have an election in the windiest time of the year in Sydney?

  10. A very interesting day in Hotham. Lots of interest in the Greens. Lots of laughs and smiles for and from the Sex party. Good company he was along with the ALP and the Lib people at the door.

    Pity an ALP voter uglied up the scene by rudely pointing out that one of the gents handing out ALP HTVs was an asian. Shame that your party has to pander to morons like this. By the look of it, the ALP is gonna need more than gaffa to hold together.

    What kind of unity is that? Racially attacking the guy handing out HTV cards for her party? What a dumb bogan!

    We need better education in this country.

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