Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [ Do they count the pre-polls tomorrow or later? ]

    Prepolls are not counted on Sat night. They begin to count them on Monday.

  3. Another brief interlude.

    Finally got rid of the clowns. Had hoped to much earlier, but sis in law dropped in with a not so brief update on present state of play with regards to her week. Had to put down the ancient cat, 13 yr old daughter issues, putting but not down, her mum, with dementia, in a nursing home, applying yet again for her ATO job.

    I thought I was troubled. The Footy Tipping, the arguments about where and when the wrap party will be held, the WhomeverTF is James Bradshaw, I think, at Glenelg Footy Club for someone’s birthday.

    Then I still have not ascertained whether the Mum, also Boothby, has voted or not or will nor have I given instructions, not that they would prejudice, the Mum knows she will or would vote Labor, this will be interesting given my comments in 2007 about nursing home residents, not sure if sis in law herself is compos enough to vote rationally….sigh.

    And yes and yes.

    Kicks and Kicks in the pants, to the not so faceless men and the gullible (who would have thought it ) Julia.

    Good luck us!

    And on our behalf.

    Julia!

  5. I am watching a Gruen Transfer repeat; funny that they come up with better adverts than any of the real political campaigns.

  6. [The Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate come July 2011 and there will be a double dissolution in November 2011 or March 2012]

    If Gillard wins, I have no reason to believe that she won’t be able to effectively work with a Green BoP Senate until 2013…

  7. Prediction from me

    Worst case
    Labor ends up with 74 seats or 75 seats , Libs 72 and three indepenendents and one green

    Best case
    Labor loses 10 seats and wins three seats ends up with 80 or 81 seats, Libs 66 seats and three independents and one green
    Smokey :Tasmanian seats going to Greens Bass and Braddon. Only if prefs from Libs are going to Greens, i do not know?

  13. Voting prediction from my house tomorrow.

    Labor 1, Coalition 1
    (yes we are just like Mary Matalin and James Carville!)

    Newbie offspring could tilt balance!

    Seriously think we have only voted same at NT and Republic Referenda. Which is part of the reason I didn’t run for pre-selection once – hard to convince people if you can’t convince partner!!

  14. [I am watching a Gruen Transfer repeat; funny that they come up with better adverts than any of the real political campaigns.]

    I am glad they do.

    On Thursday’s episode, that Coalition one was gold, whereas the ALP one was shite.

  16. the election countdown clock is up on sky news- target 76. We will get 78. Victoria will save the day for the rest of the country- remember that!! The mexicans will come good delivering 3 seats

  17. If I had been undecided, the cockiness of Abbott today and the sheer arrogance of the MSM would have steered me into the Labor camp!
    The front page of THE DAILY TERROR was enough to make anyone throw up their breakfast – Abbott as the new Obama? Oh please!

  19. cupidstunt

    Dont know. Rudd’s primary got down to 36 but lots of disaffected greens there. We are tracking similarly especially in the Sydney marginals.

    If Rudd would have started the campaign with something like his farwell speech of the “things I’m proud of” then defended the record and had three debates with Abbott to expose his lack of details I’d say ALP would have been better placed than today.

    I actually thought the switch to Julia would increase labor’s stocks but the campaign honchos have been just awful and didn’t play to Julia’s strength (ie being Julia)

    I was hoping for an early taunt about Abbott’s courage or intemperance or glass jaw just to get him fired up but the shots never came.

    As Harry Who would say “Amazing!”

  20. As an indulgence, my personal hopes for tomorrow would be (I expect Labor to win by a handful):

    1. Senate is hung.
    2. Bandt wins Melbourne.
    2. Reps is hung, with 3 indies and Bandt with the balance. Alterntively Labor cling on by a couple.
    3. McKew retains Bennelong.
    4. Labor fails in every western Sydney seat targetted directly or indirectly with the bogan refugee ‘policy’.
    5. Saffin retains Page.
    6. The Greens vote holds up generally to teach Labor a lesson about leadership and the ETS.
    7. A Labor win is not interpreted as a triumph against the odds.
    8. The Labor ‘strategists’ are exposed yet again for the dopes they clearly are.

  21. GG

    I’m guessing the Truce will be over tomorrow esp if Labor loses a few seats because less than 80% of Greens prefs flow to them. It could get a bit ugly here.

  22. [Victoria will save the day for the rest of the country- remember that!! ]

    SA will do its bit too. And hopefully give us at least one (At this stage, I am no longer confident about Sturt)

  23. [I have been watching the ABC campaign in review and Rudd really stands for nothing. He does not believe Global Warming is real.]

    Aren’t you talking about abbott?

  25. rudd would have been crucified beyond belief if he had still been leader by the msm

    In that “Mea Culpa” interview with Cassidy, Rudd passed off the GFC response as “context” only. He also post-validated the pink batts lies and all the rest of the MSM bullshit they had been writing of him. It would have been hard to recover from that.

    And then there is the problem of his gall bladder. That could have cropped up at any time. He didn’t just have stones removed. He lost the whole organ. We actually still don’t know the full story of that, or really how serious it was. Latham had a similar problem (lost a campaign week early on) with his pancreatitis.

    Rudd could have been a very sick man right up until he had his surgery. He might still be very sick. We just don’t know.

  26. Yes prep polls are to be counted on the night. This will stretch scrutineer resources and the election will not be as transparent. The big question is still with the Senate and the strong possibility that the distortion in the way the Senate vote is counted playing a decisive role in the outcome.

    IN 2007 The Greens should have been elected to Queensland and in Victoria the ALP could have lost had One Nation preferences the LNP before the ALP – delivering the Greens a bonus 7,000 votes above and beyond their support.

    If the ALP manages to secure 42% then it will be 3 ALP 1 Grn and 2 LNP. If the ALP gets 41.7% then the Greens are elected on the strength of One Nation,. DLP and Family First. (Thanks to the semi-=proportional system in use)

  27. We Laborites from New South Wales better be very nice to the Victorians and our Adelaide friends if they get Julia over the line.
    To think that I live in a Australian state populated by rednecks and truly dumb people is a little embarrassing.

  29. Incidentally Maxine will be fine in Bennelong tomorrow.
    I’m doing htv for the grand dame and will personally intercept and block any tory voters!
    “Are you talking to me? Are you talking to me? Cos I’m the only one here”.

  31. All those hopes are exactly the same as mine.

    The arrogant NSW right needs to be taught a lesson, and the few who changed leaders need to realise that cabinet posts are not already in the mail.
    These people do not deserve it.

  32. Peter Young at 1351

    The AEC advise that they will count on the night any prepolls done in a person’s electorate. This is a change from previous practice and they advise that it will slow the count a little on the night.

  37. Andrew (#1319)

    Labor appear this time to have made a much better effort in terms of prepolls and postals than 2007. Might be decisive in tight seats.

    There has been some reporting in recent days (can’t find it now) of Labor massively outperforming the coalition with postal votes in Queensland – IIRC about three times as many. When you put together the opinion polls (unweighted average of last phone polls from all pollsters is 51.3% TPP to ALP) with the postal votes, the advantage of incumbency, and the sophomore surge from all the new Labor members elected last time, it is pretty clear, I think.

  38. When Labor wins tomorrow , I’ll have a pint of what the Pope drinks.

    Creme de Menthe.

    Doesn’t that joke end…

    “No wonder they always carry him ’round on a chair!”

  39. [Labor appear this time to have made a much better effort in terms of prepolls and postals than 2007. Might be decisive in tight seats.]

    You can not tell. The AEC has failed to report on the return rate. We know the number of postal votes issued by nit returned. This is a repeat of the mistakes they made in 2007. We had requested this information but they were unable to provide it.

  40. One thing is for sure, if Labor wins Queensland and New South Wales would have experienced National/ Liberal State Governments, and their slashing and burning privatisation policies so next time it may swing back.

  43. Greensborough Growler@1362

    When Labor wins tomorrow , I’ll have a pint of what the Pope drinks.
    Creme de Menthe.

    I will have a shiraz or 20.

    Creme De Menthe? They also used to give the alter boys Absinthe to increase compliance I heard.

    The whole cloistered experience gives the recipients big ears – I guess the be-cassocked ones have to hold on to something. e.g. Tony Abbott.

  45. Votes can go missing and there is no reconciliation. It should be possible for the ARC to know exactly how many votes have been returned and how many are still in the post. Australia Post scanning system should be able to produce a report confirming the number delivered and returned. The pre polling stats and reconciliation report should also be available before any votes are counted

  46. To Speak of Pebbles,
    [On Thursday’s episode, that Coalition one was gold, whereas the ALP one was shite.]
    That is the one I just watched. Loved the Argentinian ad. We had nothing like that this time. I think we should have; we have a vision, something to offer and things to be proud of. Without paying for advertising, it is hard to get this out with the MSM carrying on as the power-behind-the-throne.

    Thank you for all your efforts and others like you, who got out in the cold and rain and pounded the pavements. My circumstances meant I could only help by posting/retweeting things online and making comments in the checkout lines about the Perils of Abbott, so I salute you.

    Well here is to good fortune tomorrow.
    Puff.

  47. #1382

    Thanks for that ( I was unaware of the change in practice).
    Perhaps extra staff at the Divisional HQ could count them in the same time as the staff at each booth count that booths papers. Will also require a “box” on any computer programs to include pre-polls in Saturday nights tally.

  48. [He lost the whole organ. We actually still don’t know the full story of that, or really how serious it was. Latham had a similar problem (lost a campaign week early on) with his pancreatitis.]

    BB they always take the whole organ.

    Pancreatitus is a completely different thing (though gallstones can affect the pancreas). Gallstone pain is arguably the 3rd worst possible pain (behind childbirth and kidney stones). Ongong attacks are really debilitating — had my GB out in 2000 after a few years of agony.

  49. As a long time lurker and very occasional contributor….sincere thanks to all (particularly William Bowe, Possum, Psephos and Bushfire Bill) who contribute to this blog. Reading it has made it easier to filter out the extraordinary bias of the mainstream media.

    I am ooking forward to voting in the marginal seat of Swan tomorrow and hoping for an early win tomorrow night.

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