Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [“An unusually high 9% of electors are still undecided about how they will vote at the election.”]

    Awww! Still undecided? Best stick with the devil you know…

  2. The Poll Dancing is getting a bit ridiculous. Where is the Sex Party when you need them. They are all pointing ONE way, Jules by a landslide of (1). Killen you are magnificent.

  5. Polls, schmolls. Polls are not predictions.

    The only prediction that counts will be in Bluey’s Report tonight. Octopuses know things that terrestrials do not.

  6. [“An unusually high 9% of electors are still undecided about how they will vote at the election.”]
    That is absolute crap.

    The average of the last 7 federal elections is that 9.8% of voters decide on the day.

    There is nothing unusual about that.

  7. Psephos

    [Pyne has spent enough money to feed Africa for a year.]

    I heard his budget was $300,000. That buys an awful lot of annoying TV ads.

  8. All the recent polls (except the .66 newspoll) have Labor on 38% primaries. With Green prefs running at 80%+ the Libs cannot win on 42%.

  11. I thought Labor had a good last week so I thought the polls would fall their way. However, this week no one’s really moved much at all.

  12. I would be happy with this result, but the state results seem a bit out. I can’t imagine the ALP doing so well in NSW, unless it is a big outside Sydney result.

  13. How much will his escapade at Brookvale oval with $10 million of local pork for the silvertailed Sea Eagles ground cost him in western Sydney, I wonder?

  16. [That is absolute crap.

    The average of the last 7 federal elections is that 9.8% of voters decide on the day.

    There is nothing unusual about that.]

    Thanks Laocoon, you got to the figure first, I was trying to find the exact number. Totally normal as you say.

  17. [Pyne has spent enough money to feed Africa for a year.]

    Sounds about right. Power is all that matters to the Liberal party scum

  23. What is the conventional wisdom on what leaders/parties can realistically achieve on polling day itself in terms of swaying voters?

  25. [How much will his escapade at Brookvale oval with $10 million of local pork for the silvertailed Sea Eagles ground cost him in western Sydney, I wonder?]

    It certainly won’t help him in Western Sydney. Hope the West all hear about it before tomorrow.

  26. [plug them into antony’s statewide calculator and the ALP ends up with 80]

    No it doesn’t. It give ALP 75 (counting WA and NT as ISQ).

  27. [I suspect the swing to the ALP in Victoria will also be nigger than 0.7%]

    Ah, I think you mean the swing to the ALP in Victoria will also be N word than 0.7%

  28. [Tomorrow (Saturday August 21, 2010) the Morgan Poll is conducting an Australia-wide Election Day survey including extra interviews in some of the Key Marginal Seats. The results will be released during the 7 News Election coverage.]

    Channel 7 must be desperate. 😆

  31. [Tomorrow (Saturday August 21, 2010) the Morgan Poll is conducting an Australia-wide Election Day survey including extra interviews in some of the Key Marginal Seats. The results will be released during the 7 News Election coverage.]

    what the F for? People are voting tomorrow!

  32. There is a clear pattern emerging in Australian politics – the AFL states are progressive (with WA lagging a bit), and the NRL states are reactionary. That’s why the emergence of new AFL teams in western Sydney and the Gold Coast is so important to the future of Australia, since they will become nodes of progressive politics in those benighted regions.

  35. So this Abbott ‘bombshell’ you guys having been banging on about for eight months, you think it might drop before the polls open?

  36. I recall on here a few weeks ago that PB’s were saying that as long as we get 50/50 on the eve the election it will be OK. Admittedly that was on the back of a very bad poll.

  38. [There is a clear pattern emerging in Australian politics – the AFL states are progressive (with WA lagging a bit), and the NRL states are reactionary. That’s why the emergence of new AFL teams in western Sydney and the Gold Coast is so important to the future of Australia, since they will become nodes of progressive politics in those benighted regions.]

    With that, I am proud to be from a city that rejected a thugby franchise! 😀

  40. FYI Tony Windsor is on record supporting a minority Labor govt – ESP if the get 50+ 2 pp
    The reason – the NBN
    (was in fin review last weekend)

  41. [Laurie Oakes says likely election outcome is Coalition victory. What do you reckon ? #ausvotes I reckon he’s a fat so and so]

    LOL!

    Chins up. Not over yet.

  42. Psephos@32

    There is a clear pattern emerging in Australian politics – the AFL states are progressive (with WA lagging a bit), and the NRL states are reactionary. That’s why the emergence of new AFL teams in western Sydney and the Gold Coast is so important to the future of Australia, since they will become nodes of progressive politics in those benighted regions.

    Who owns the NRL again?

  43. Why do an opinion poll on election day? There’s already a pretty big one going on that day.

    Should be doing exit polling

  45. @Psephos – I like your thinking.

    Karl Bitar’s email this afternoon is all doom and gloom; all negative; and a video of Faulks telling us how close it is. They know something.

  47. So Nielsen and the rest of Newspoll to go, I remember on one of the blogs yesterday, someone said the lovely Miranda Devine tweeted that the Coalition was up 3 %, was that a gag or what?
    Reckon on local news here Cowper there is a chance that the ALP Paul S could fall across the line, I do hope so, what do other Cowper residents and also Oakeshoot Country think? I would dealy like to know what they think

  49. george @ 29

    [One thing that will be really sad after Labor win on Saturday is if Maxine McKew doesn’t hold her seat.]

    It’s been three years of sad from Maxine.

  50. [There is a clear pattern emerging in Australian politics – the AFL states are progressive (with WA lagging a bit), and the NRL states are reactionary. That’s why the emergence of new AFL teams in western Sydney and the Gold Coast is so important to the future of Australia, since they will become nodes of progressive politics in those benighted regions.]

    Rupert has the Smellygraph and half the NRL. Of course we’re regressed.

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