Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.
I am going on the State breakdowns, Queensland 8 seats Nsw 7 seats and Wa 2 Seats, therefore 17 seats lost and gained well 3 seats, 2 in Victoria and 1 in South Australia. Sorry a mistake 14 seats lost, Labor ends up on 74, with Libs 73 or 72, interesting times ahead going on this analysis.
The worry i have is that Morgan generally always favors Labor more in his polling.
drrudi
What do you think they know?
[grant – [I suspect the swing to the ALP in Victoria will also be nigger than 0.7%]
whoops!]
Yep. Whoops indeed. I corrected it straight away though.
jenauthor (302 of previous thread)
[Again you listen to too much propaganda MWH. The initial outlay for the taxpayer is $26 million, not $43 for starters. And it will recoup that with sales to service providers. It is very important that a private entity does NOT own the backbone, as we’ll get the Telstra style monopoly back and will again see poor service and overpricing.]
I don’t listen to any propaganda as I have equal contempt for Abbott and Conroy.
I used to work at the Telstra Research Labs as a team leader working on broadband services. So perhaps I’m able to have my own expert opinion.
Both Labor and Liberal have again and again stuffed up telecommunication and television in Australia. I’m sure that they must have got something right, but at the moment I can only think of things they did wrong.
Of course every time they stuff-up it has been the Australian public that has paid.
But, as with climate change, for most of you this is just politics, and thus who needs to think about any issue when it’s easier to just believe the spin from your side.
32 – Psephos – the clear pattern emerging is that Carl Bittar has his head so far up his own ar*e he forms a perfect circle. Been terrible, frankly. And no, falling across the line to win doesn’t change that at all.
@museboy
I think they know that the game is lost.
Channel 7 gave Julia a couple of minutes to ‘address the nation’
Was Tone wearing a Manly footy jumper ?? Probably not the best look when so many other people hate Manly. It might be the image needed to reinforce the line ‘anyone but Manly’
I’d be happy to see that – & I’m a lifelong Manly fan
Boundary Man
[
oops – diogenes – you are correct – dont know how i made that mistake.]
I stuffed it up first time as well.
This poll seems to be reasonably accurate given the timing. It’s going to be close.
I suspect that Abbott’s stay up all night stunt underlines how risky and unstable he appears to most people. The lunch room verdict today was unanimous that it was a bad idea. Split between 1. It’s too late to cram an election he needed to formulate and cost his policies earlier and 2. Just copying the UK election, looks desperate.
I wonder if Kerry will get the snits because of the noise in the background at the National Tally Room like he did in 2007. Or will the mood be more subdued? – unless the Libs bus in that Rooty Hill mob. 🙂
Ah, memories. I used to go along to the tally room years ago when they had to put up the figures by hand – a bit like one of the old cricket scoreboards. The commentators had to wait until the board for that seat had been swung around again before they could comment. Now it’s all fancy graphics and a result by 6.20pm. Well, maybe not so early this election but you know what I mean.
The problem is that two State Governments are on the nose, Nsw and Queensland and not to suggest that it is a gender problem and for Julia but both are lead by women, is their something in this which concerns voters in regards to Julia? Once Anna Bligh starting privatising in Queensland people became ropeable.
Max = MD of their abc ??
Bitar’s email is just a piece of expectations management, designed to get the troops out tomorrow.
Take Note – and with Greens Preference rate at 80% + to the ALP — we’ll do fine 🙂
[Reckon on local news here Cowper there is a chance that the ALP Paul S could fall across the line, I do hope so, what do other Cowper residents and also Oakeshoot Country think?]
It will be a lot closer in Cowper than the punters on the betting marks think it will be.
There is a ground swell of people getting grumpy with 40 years of the Nats delivering SFA. Yet in the past 3 years the ALP have made things happen – in spite of the fact the seat isn’t one of theirs.
Luckdave @ 59
[Abbott’s stay up all night stunt]
I wonder why he got an ovation at the fish markets? Apparently he had to field a couple of curly ones at some bar or other but then at the flower and fish markets he was lauded.
Well if Smuggles wins then at least I can say that I’ve got quite a talent for political prediction. On June 24 when I heard about Rudd my first reaction was “that’s it, Labor have lost the next election”. I was nearly convinced that Julia could pull it off. Pity, because I think she would be a good PM. As Keating said, if Smuggles wins, God help australia.
[Take Note – and with Greens Preference rate at 80% + to the ALP — we’ll do fine.]
I suspect that prefernce flow may even be as high as 85% this time Frank.
Greens vote sitting at what, 13-14% in the latest polls?
It won’t be that high tomorrow. Link me to as many articles as you want saying it will be, I don’t care. Greens preferences will flow 85% to Labor. We’ll win.
Excluding WA, I wonder what time we will know the result EST? If its close, I guess at around 9.30pm – maybe a bit later. Does anyobe know when the postals are counted – again I assume they are last.
Musrum @ 42
Actually I think a lot of fans buy the Daily Terror just for their 8 pages of NRL coverage and get indoctrinated at the same time.
It’s rather amazing how News Liemited largely escaped scrutiny over the Storm fiasco. Threads on the ABC website got locked almost immediately and the ones at Fairfax completely disappeared. Obviously big threats were made.
We may not know the result for a week.
Just seen Julia Gillard on the news talk about the very real risk of having Tony A as prime minister
i think this is Julia’s version of Howards “if the Australian people are good enough to elect me again’
sounded like panic and desperation to me
[Essential, Galaxy & Morgan have ALP 1st pref 38, and LNP 43, 42 at 41. Not a single point of the ALP fall has gone to LNP – all to Greens 1 minute ago via web]
It must be said that the Greens polling is holding up well so far.
[Was Tone wearing a Manly footy jumper ?? Probably not the best look when so many other people hate Manly. It might be the image needed to reinforce the line ‘anyone but Manly’
I’d be happy to see that – & I’m a lifelong Manly fan]
see
Together with $10 Million worth of pork in his own electorate for the Sea Eagles home ground!
Fisher update – Peter Slipper is praying.
Fairfax Update – Alex Somlyay is peeing himself laughing at Slipper praying.
Interesting poll from Morgan but NSW and who knows other states might produce ‘two speed’ swings. In NSW, I would be really surprised if Labor lost Page or E-M, and might even pick up Cowper but there could be very big swings in western Sydney to even out the 3.2. Qld might be the same, big swings out of Brisbane and not as much in Brisbane. One of the odd things in the newspoll on Mon or Tues was that there was a swing outside the capitals to the ALP but against in the 5 capitals – assuming Melb and Adel are swinging somewhat to the ALP , the others may swing a lot. But it is this regional vote that is unexplained and uncommented upon.
The Northern District Times, the local feeby paper for the Ryde area: Headline
On to Parramatta
Labor says GO
Liberals say NO
Editorial very positive about the project.
Frank
Those primaries for the ALP at 38%, Lib on 42% and Greens 13-14% are remarkably consistent.
I doubt the Greens vote will be as high in the marginals though.
[It’s rather amazing how News Liemited largely escaped scrutiny over the Storm fiasco. Threads on the ABC website got locked almost immediately and the ones at Fairfax completely disappeared. Obviously big threats were made.]
The Murdochracy are a threat to democracy and a level playing field sports market. This country needs ‘a Roosevelt’ to break up this monopolistic bunch of bastards.
Are you up to it Julia and Bob?
rua, you mean the Slipmeister might actually lose ?? 🙂
[ So the Morgan numbers (adjusting for Possum’s time traveling stupidity) actually look like this: http://bit.ly/9qRQX5 ALP 73 seats 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]
Not enough to win government. 🙁
I want to be Coalition leader. It seems like it’s the easiest job in the world and apparently you don’t need qualifications for it.
al palster @ 70
To my knowledge, the postals are counted last, maybe even during the week. As marky marky said, the final result might not be know for some time, depending on challenges etc.
@Luckydave/59,
He’ll stay up all night while in election mode then sleep the rest of question time.
Thanks Grantplant(65) I am willing you to be right, guess you live in Cowper too
EM will be hard fought but with Bluey&JR onside it should be a close victory to the forces of good.
Seems to me a lot of the journos tonight are tipping a hung Parliament/ Coalition win. Either they’ve succummbed to Labor’s ‘expectations management’, or they believe Labor is in trouble.
Reading between the lines:
Lindsay, Hasluck, Bennelong, Longman (based on the poor performance of the ALP candidate yesterday), Flynn, Forde and Leichardt to LNP = -7
McEwan, LaTrobe and Boothby to ALP = +3
And the following “too close to call” seats to LNP – Dawson, Bonner = -2
Melbourne to The Greens = -1
ALP = 82 -7 + 3 – 2 -1 = 75
LNP = 65 + 7 – 3 + 2 = 71
Greens = 1
Ind = 3
Soloman and Bass shaky for ALP.
Could possibly steal Sturt, Ryan and Dickson.
I really want to see a hung parliament. It would be good for our democrac, shake out a few cobwebs and may see a large scale reengagement with the political process. Depending on who won, the dynamic of the houses would also be interesting and how they respond to a more fluid environment.
It also occurred to me this afternoon that we could have another (house only) election in the next 12 months and it would be possible without much difficulty (not too early) to get the houses back in synch before the 1 July 2014 senate term starts.
People are continually forgetting that Labor will win seats tomorrow.
Big plunge on Libs in E-M and hung parl shortening dramatically.
[Centrebet has the odds on a hung parliament shrinking to $2.38.
Centrebet spokesman Neil Evans said the “smart money” was on the marginal seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW, which if Labor lost meant it was “all over” for the government.
Sitting Labor member Mike Kelly’s odds have widened to $1.47 from $1.20, while a $12,000 bet was put on Liberal candidate David Gazard – a previous adviser to former treasurer Peter Costello – helping shrink his odds from $3.85 to $2.55.]
[and apparently you don’t need qualifications for it.]
And even if you do have relevent qualifications, you won’t be required to do or say anything to demonstrate your expertise.
Seems to have been a while since an update on the betting movements/lack of
Diogs re your comments on Green votes in marginals
I am also wondering in this election if the Greens votes might pile up in safe Liberal seats at the expense of the ALP and that they might not come second or a close third in some seats with the Libs way in front. This is what happened at the last NSW and Vic state elections.
so same as essential
Glory @ 92
It will be a minimum of one – McEwen but beyond that, we need to wait and see.
93 Diog
[while a $12,000 bet was put on Liberal candidate]
After an election what do you have to show for advertising money spent?
I believe some coalition people have made a financial decision that putting money on candidates is a more effective way of advertising.
What is all this “expectations management” talk ? They ditched Rudd because they thought they couldn’t win – what expectations are there to manage?
I expected they would campaign better. I expected they might wait until later in the year for the election so that Julia had some time in Parliament to look Prime Ministerial. I expected Rudd would lead the party to this election. They haven’t managed any of those.