Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.
Abbott’s “I’ll have a Shandy thanks” was featured on channel 7 news, while Gillard downed a pint of Guinness. Great visual. No political impact but a truly magic campaign moment.
[Thanks Grantplant(65) I am willing you to be right, guess you live in Cowper too]
Yup. Odds are Heatseker should win. But………………
ruwake whats your feeling in qld had an email from a rele just a grass roots opion
so not worth saying as nothing inside
I meant Heatseeker (not real name of course)
drrudi – I still think we’ll win, and am confident of that, but if Labor cannot defeat a party led by Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb – despite a woeful media – it might say a fair bit about how the first term has gone.
[rua, you mean the Slipmeister might actually lose ??]
No but he is seriously worried. He is on a 3.5% margin, the local press and radio have been canning him and the Green vote has doubled to 8%.
I really want to see a hung parliament.
Could not agree more but with the Greens in the balance. This would really upset the right.
The regional differences could be to do with Broadband and Labors’ big spend.
With betting on elections, I wonder how long it will be until some gambler tries to improperly influence an election result – I was thinking individual seats rather then the whole lot.
my oh says real men dont drink shandys
and guiness is my favourite
So tomorrow morning I will walk to the polling booth and cast my worthless vote against Briggs in Mayo, hibernate until 6pm, endure a number of hours of purgatory from then and God knows what thereafter.
I have horrible visions of a secret tunnel being built between Kiribilli and George Pell’s pad.
I just saw the photo of Abbott in the Manly shirt on the ABC. Sod the shirt, he was standing next to Bronwyn Bishop. Can’t tell which is the worst look for him.
Apeman, labor are easing out on Centrebet.
The odds are now Labor 1.56 Liberal 2.39
About an hour ago it was Labor 1.47 Liberal 2.67???
It moving very quickly at the moment. Not surprising really
Betfair also $1.56… $650,000 total bets since 10am
Glory, the problem has been no control of senate and the reactionary stupidity of getting rid of Rudd one minute to midnight.
Cannot beat Abbott sums it up perfectly they are now full of factional dills who do not have a clue.
I agree, hung parliament is better than Coalition winning by a few seats.
108 balckburnpseph
[some gambler tries to improperly influence an election result]
Try 2007 bennelong – how JH stayed ahead so long in betting
[I wonder why he got an ovation at the fish markets?]
Because he has promised to unlock marine protection for fisherman.
[labor are easing out on Centrebet]
response to the talk from Paul B and Oakes?
[Apeman, labor are easing out on Centrebet.
The odds are now Labor 1.56 Liberal 2.39
About an hour ago it was Labor 1.47 Liberal 2.67???
It moving very quickly at the moment. Not surprising really]
A response to the likes of Laurie Oakes maybe?
Thanks rua, one can dream
Marky Marky @ 107
The interview on Lateline the other night with Windsor and Katter was quite illuminating – Windsor was very much big picture, Katter (who I had always thought mad as a cut snake) was very aware of the importance of the possible role and he is obviously very keen to support the interests of his electorate and the wider rural electorate. If they did get a good deal for regional australia, their BoP may do more than anything else to kill the Nats stone dead.
What were the election eve polls & betting in 2007?
[I just saw the photo of Abbott in the Manly shirt on the ABC. Sod the shirt, he was standing next to Bronwyn Bishop. Can’t tell which is the worst look for him.]
Depends on the market, apeman. In Bennelong, Bronnie might do Abbott some harm. In any true west Sydney or Brisbane seat, though, its that jumper (and the last minute $10 million for the Sea Eagles home ground in his own electorate) that will do the damage to him.
[The odds are now Labor 1.56 Liberal 2.39]
OK, my “don’t panic, it’s all good” attitude is now slightly changing… that is a massive change.
From Centrebet, on the 2 seats that are thought most likely in SA:
Boothby: Lib $1.48, ALP $2.50
Sturt: Lib $1.18, ALP $4.35
(@BK you’ll be pleased to know Jamie Briggs is at $1.01)
Why didn’t Abbott visit a Hospital Emergency Centre during his big day out? Oh that’s right he’s going to put more pressure on them by cutting funding.
Or how about a homeless shelter?
Abbott is our George Bush.
Think Big@71
Yes I know. The Rugby League is the chocolate frosting on the Murdoch/neo-con turd. A bit ironic given its history….
[
response to the talk from Paul B and Oakes?
]
[
A response to the likes of Laurie Oakes maybe?
]
I would guess so, it fits timeline wise. But who really knows
Maybe it’s Labor insiders who think they are sunk trying to get some cash for when they are unemployed 🙂
I just put a some bickies on the Coalition to not win. Anyone else put their baby bonus on Fibs to lose? (witticism alert!)
BTW I hear JG put the $2trill of OZ economy on behalf os Australia on at adds of 2/1 so if she wins the election we all are in the clover till the ends of days. And if not, who cares anyway, lept the Fibs handle it.
Labor out to $1.57 to win on Betfair.
Is Oakes quoting internal party contacts ?
Paul Kelly wrote:
[He (Abbott) came over as an authentic, competent, down-to-earth Aussie]
Tony Abbott said:
[“I’ll have a Shandy thanks”]
I live in a mining town, and those two statements don’t go together here.
And yes, a mining town. Has that tax thing impacted on the polls here? – not that I have seen.
sorry, lotsa typos. :/
Just looking at the ABC Calculator, most of the seats gained are marginal are they not? so they may not even get those?
[(@BK you’ll be pleased to know Jamie Briggs is at $1.01)]
drrudi
Strewth. Don’t kick a guy when he’s down!
I suspect a lot of this late betting is just novice punters intrigued by the idea of having a punt on the election. Everyone is talking about the election and the betting markets are much more high profile this time — indeed they have advertised far more prominently. Plenty of mug punters have picked up on the anecdotal talk of a swing to the Coalition and see a fast buck.
So Abbott says he will have 3 boats per year coming?
He’s already broken is so-called Action Contract.
Tony Abbott’s shandy actually reflects contemporary workplace realities. He is at work and very few people now drink during the day if they are going back to work. After all by campaigning, he is at work. Did the PM actually down the pint or was there only a press release that she had?
I am glad the election is tomorrow as I don’t think I can stand the cynicism build up for much longer.
BK: did you ever hear back from Briggs about the electricity prices?
I now 1993 was a long time ago, but does anyone remember how the polls were then?
One of my favourite political speaches begins “This is the sweetest victory” …
The betting against Maxine in Bennelong picked up markedly over the past 2 days.
I was informed by Jamie Briggs’ Mayo office that I would receive a return call from one of his advisors within 15 minutes. That was 4 hours ago. No call.
Arbeze
I think Maxine has fallen under a train on the Epping to Parramatta line.
[So tomorrow morning I will walk to the polling booth and cast my worthless vote against Briggs in Mayo, hibernate until 6pm, endure a number of hours of purgatory from then and God knows what thereafter.
I have horrible visions of a secret tunnel being built between Kiribilli and George Pell’s pad.]
BK it can’t be all bad, you’ll have the red handy I presume.
@ blackburnpseph,
On television, Julia really was drinking stout. (I can’t guarantee that it was Guiness, but definitely stout). Played some pool (the shot I saw she missed the ball).
[That was 4 hours ago. No call.]
How surprisement!
[BK: did you ever hear back from Briggs about the electricity prices?]
confessions
As you typed so did I. Telepathic??
[The Liberal Party has not nominated a candidate for the State Armadale by-election.
The seat was held by the Labor member, Alannah MacTiernan, for 14 years but she resigned earlier this month to run for the Federal seat of Canning.]
Even they recognise a losing contest when they see one!
FWIW I reckon Labor will win Canning.
[BK it can’t be all bad, you’ll have the red handy I presume.]
Perahelion
What do you reckon!
[So Abbott says he will have 3 boats per year coming?
He’s already broken is so-called Action Contract.]
He knows his “stop the boats” mantra is going to be used against him at the next election, this is just another way to weasel out of a promise i.e. “I never said I could stop them all“
[On television, Julia really was drinking stout.]
It was Tooheys Old.