Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.
I don’t think anyone should be too upset by shifting odds at this stage. The current movement probably just reflects a recognition by punters that the odds being offered on a liberal win are/were quite generous.
135 – there certainly must be some mug punters around with hung parliament @ 2.15 against 1.64 for not hung Centrebet. Those odds are nowhere near reality.
Blue-ringed Octopus Report 20 August
Dear Bludgers, this is the last of Bluey’s 32 Campaign Reports (there were a few missers). Tomorrow Bluey will be doing poll booth duty for the post-Enlightenment side. Thereafter, he will partake of many toasts at the victory feast. He will then go back to his tide pool for an idle lurk, hoping for a stray Truthy or a GP.
Bluey agrees with Shakespeare: ‘Things won are done, the joy’s soul lies in the doing.’
The journey has been good. Bluey thanks youse Bludgers for all the nice feedback, as well as for many an entertaining and informative post. Bluey has discounted Bludger salivary discussions about occy recipes as a jolly jape, so no hard feelings there. Bluey also takes this opportunity to thank Wm, our excellent and long-suffering combo of knowledgeable person and nanny.
Bluey has had a communication from the International Bark Beetles Collective. They are excited at the possibility of an Abbott Government because they are slowly but surely running out of clear-sighted people willing to undermine international action on Climate Change. [Medvedev being the latest Rat in the Ranks of the Deniers.] However, the bark beetles do wonder whether things can get too good, even for bark beetles, noting that there is a bit of an awful situation in the Rockies where bark beetles are running out of Whitebark Pines to eat. Bluey told them primly that there is no such thing as a free lunch, please pass it on to Abbott.
Agendas: Abbott and Gillard as alternative Prime Ministers. The betting markets. The polls. The campaigns.
Narratives: Abbott still a bit diseased, physically. The MSM are being very polite about the fact that he can’t even stay healthy for five weeks of rigorous campaigning. Bluey reckons that Abbott is all smugglers and no budgies. Bluey reckons that if Gillard coughed, the MSM would have her dying of pneumonia instead of just looking like a haggard witch. Talk about Pros. Still, Abbott has cleverly given the MSM a human interest story for the last couple of days. This saves them from having to think about a billion dollar cut to the PBS. Plus, there is endless footage of Abbott doing hey mate! And journos reporting how tired they feel. Wusses. How importantment is that!
Abbott had no answers on IR or on superannuation today, except to say go to the website. Numerous questions to Abbott on stopping the boats and would he put his job on the line. No, he would just stop the boats. Abbott dodged the question on whether or not he would fiddle with the Fair Work regs. There was no follow-up question on that one.
Bluey can understand why gougers, finance industry spivs, rent seekers, cancer-for-profit merchants, robber barons and the kulaks would vote for Abbott – provided they are not worried about AGW. But what Bluey finds particularly intriguing is the large tranche of selfless poor people who will vote for a mob who will, given the opportunity, screw them. The poor people will do this as long as the screwers affirm the social values of the screwees.
Polls: A plethora of polls alighting like ravens on the battlements of doom. Bluey reckons fark them all.
External event: Portents of the double dip are gaining momentum. Bluey (no economist, but quite capable of being dismal) reckons the Treasury forecasts are 100% likely to be significantly wrong over the forward estimates period. So, the campaign costings, good or bad, are built on shifting sand.
Score for the day: A draw. Gillard 1 point; Abbott 1 point. Cumulative and final score: Gillard 42; Abbott 22. Bluey reckons this is a bit on the low side for Gillard because she is at least twice as good as Abbott.
While normally eschewing gambling as a mug’s game, Bluey has put his last cowrie shell on a double: Labor House and Greens BOM in the Senate. How much by? One seat, but who cares? A win is a win is a win.
Cheers
How do the betting markets reflect the reality? Are they not reacting to commentary?
[On television, Julia really was drinking stout.
It was Tooheys Old.]
And a pretty good brew it is, rua.
BK: smart minds!
More help for regional areas may also help the Nats.Watch them take the credit.
It worries me when Bob Brown says the Greens are going to do well. In past elections he said the same thing beforehand and it never happened.
@ruawake,
Thanks for the correction. It looked black on TV, so I was opting for stout. Also described thus on radio; Bloomberg too:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-20/gillard-abbott-pause-for-a-beer-as-australian-polls-shows-show-50-50-tie.html
136 confessions
[So Abbott says he will have 3 boats per year coming?
He’s already broken is so-called Action Contract.]
As I pointed out earlier in diff thread
[Tony “I will NEARLY stop the boats” Abbott
Like Brave Sir Robin ..
… Who had NEARLY fought the Dragon of Agnor …
… Who had NEARLY stood up to to the vicious Chicken of Bristol …
… and who had personally wet himself at the Battle of Badon Hill.]
blackburnpseph@137
[Tony Abbott’s shandy actually reflects contemporary workplace realities.]
No, it reflects your perception of contemporary workplace realities. The real world is a highly variable little place, as the polls clearly show (obvious bias in MSM not withstanding). Our social club fridge has a wide range of beers (yes, mostly light) and wine, and it’s not always for Friday arvo. Perhaps it’s different in the city.
Well, is this as good as it gets!
I tingle whenever it sinks in that there is a Federal Election tomorrow, TOMMOROW, can you believe it.
I still think Julia will win but in all honesty I didn’t and don’t want a big margin, maybe next time if she doesn’t disappoint me.
thanks bluey
[Tony Abbott’s shandy actually reflects contemporary workplace realities. He is at work and very few people now drink during the day if they are going back to work]
didnt you hear about the story and not voting for the gfc google it one of the guys will give u the link i think
The ABC news is terribly biased in their roundup of the campaigns. Sigh.
[Tony Abbott’s shandy actually reflects contemporary workplace realities. He is at work and very few people now drink during the day if they are going back to work]
bull butter there is a good light beer i dont drink my self but the day one of oh friends and him ask for shandy i would say he had lost it.
Thank you boerwar and give bluey a tentacle shake for me.
The Essential poll has the Greens listed at 12% That’s about right. Past experience states that the Green vote is overstated in the polls by about 2%. We can expect that the Greens Nationally will poll 10-12%. Not a huge winning margin.
[8 ruawake
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 6:16 pm | Permalink
All the recent polls (except the .66 newspoll) have Labor on 38% primaries. With Green prefs running at 80%+ the Libs cannot win on 42%]
ru did you see my email re a cousin in qld , before i say what she said what the go there do you think
Mark Bahnisch’s guide to the state of seats in Qld.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/08/20/your-poll-free-guide-to-the-state-of-the-seats-in-queensland/
3 boats is how many % waste?
Remember the Liberal said the BER is waste!
[DemocracyATwork
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 7:11 pm | Permalink
The Essential poll has the Greens listed at 12% That’s about right. Past experience states that the Green vote is overstated in the polls by about 2%. We can expect that the Greens Nationally will poll 10-12%. Not a huge winning margin.]
the greens vote in tas was as predicted 20 somthing and it was spot on
Cannot cope!
Clowns here watching some clown on Channel 9 demonstrating against housing refugees rather than ‘our homeless.’
Had to leave the room. Jeez. Shameless 9. Even looked like a Lib Ad.
Cannot bear to watch or even listen to ABC. Maybe later, if Red Kerry is on.
Radio blitz today was equally shameless in some parts, however was encouraged by the apparent discouraged attitude of the Libs.
Dee @ 117
As in ruining the marine parks? Sort of let them fish anywhere they like?
another cracker bluey…. a highlight of the campaign 😉
[you think
169 confessions]
would he know more than you ru
How does a shandy equate to a port and lemonade?
BW – Many thanks to you and Bluey for your running commentary and for your efforts in EM.
Whatever happens, still have a good day tomorrow and those well deserved coldies tomorrow night.
Best wishes 🙂
Whats the chances of 76 (Labor) seats with 71 seats to Coalition ?
Bluey (and your alter ego, Bowerwar).
I dips me lid!!
160 nappin
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 7:07 pm | Permalink
blackburnpseph
Not in this city nappin a realy man never drinks a shandy any where at any time
listening to the great leap forward ,hopefully
Not that bad JJ, at least he confronted Abbott on slogans
Boerwar: Have enjoyed the blue-ringed octopus reports! Thanks for that.
Hope you and Bluey don’t freeze tomorrow. Mike Kelly will romp it in – he’s soooo Eden-Monaro in my view.
Even if the Green vote does deflate, if a large chunk of these voters are disillusioned Laborites then surely this will only boost the ALP primary?
Is it just my receiver or is there a noticeable time lag in the broad cast of sound to vision on ABC 24?
[157 marky marky
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
More help for regional areas may also help the Nats.Watch them take the credit.
It worries me when Bob Brown says the Greens are going to do well. In past elections he said the same thing beforehand and it never happened.]
they did in the tas election.
Free ad for Labor in McEwen too JJ
I respect people who choose not to drink alcohol, (although I am not of that persuasion), but having a light beer shandy is like dancing with your 80 yo Aunt at a wedding – you’re just trying to look like a good bloke (Unless of course you really are enamoured with your 80 yo Aunt). If I didn’t need proof the man was an exercising automaton with nothing to offer, that light beer shandy says it all. – If you’re not a drinker, have a lemonade FFS – no one would think any worse of you
JJ Fiasson
Just watching abcnews24 election roundup. Abbott’s was positive, good visuals, slogans etc, Gillard’s was negative, bad camera angles, downgrading her messages.
Son here with me seeing this channel for the first time is shocked at the bias. Told him that it’s been like this for whole campaign. Son was livid when Abbott got Mark Simpkin(?) dorothy dixer questions for election eve message to voters, then Gillard was treated with disbelief. Son said he is glad he hasn’t been watching tv during election.
[the chances of 76 (Labor) seats with 71 seats to Coalitio]
lets go for 78 us ?
Boerwar,
Blueys final report ws a stunner. Well done. I think you should both enjoy a bottle of Marston’s Pedigree (Premium English Ale). Followed by a medicinal OP or two
If the radical right wing Liberal Party does find itself holding the reins of power after the election I will consider their means of getting there illegitimate. They would not have got past first base were it not been for the assistacne and cooperation of the most biased media campaign to unseat a sitting government ever seen in this country’s history.
Abbott is merely but a dried up leaf blown along by media and spin.
Only on PB would there is this much analysis of a shandy…
Would shandy sells go up in pubs the next few days?
[If you’re not a drinker, have a lemonade FFS – no one would think any worse of you]
We know he likes a tipple of fruity claret, ala missing the stimulus vote.
[Aunt). If I didn’t need proof the man was an exercising automaton with nothing to offer, that light beer shandy says it all. – If you’re not a drinker, have a lemonade FFS – no one would think any worse of you]
yes it like being half a man
1892CFC re 188
My son agreed with your comment but said Abbott might as well have ordered a Fluffy Duck.
[We know he likes a tipple of fruity claret, ala missing the stimulus vote.]
do any of you have the link of that for blackspur
I am starting to worry for my liver. I promised it I would treat it better after the election but if Abbott wins I won’t be able to keep that promise.
@my say/190,
I was thinkin bare minimum, but yeah if ya want.
[If the radical right wing Liberal Party does find itself holding the reins of power after the election I will consider their means of getting there illegitimate. They would not have got past first base were it not been for the assistacne and cooperation of the most biased media campaign to unseat a sitting government ever seen in this country’s history.
Abbott is merely but a dried up leaf blown along by media and spin.]
Whoa, get a grip, you’re slip (bias) is showing.