Morgan have produced a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from an impressive sample of 1872, and it has Labor with a 51-49 lead. The primary votes are 38 per cent Labor, 42 per cent Coalition and 13 per cent Greens. Small-sample state breakdowns have swings against Labor of 3.2 per cent in New South Wales, 4.4 per cent in Queensland and 1.2 per cent in WA, and swings towards them of 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 1.6 per cent in South Australia. All of which is consistent with the general picture. The margins of error are 2 per cent for the national result, and about 5 per cent for the state breakdowns.
castle
1 school on labor at 1.52 dammit it showed 1.53
1 school on the nat in oconnor
1 school on max (maxine by sharon oneill rocks)
1 school on the Arneman (maybe he is arnies bro?)
[You might indicate how much $$ this Gapsted Cab Merlot 2007 costs?]
Only $12-ish, needs an hour to breathe, fruity and light, good to get you through an election coverage!! A real surprise
Objectively assessing all available evidence: poll averages – and betting markets – suggest an Abbott victory is possible, but the *least likely* result of tomorrow’s election.
On that note…. night!
I’m not sure Anna Bligh will be thrilled with this from Julia.
[“Whatever views people have about their state government… there is no way a vote tomorrow can change your state premier,” Ms Gillard told ABC Radio in Brisbane.
“The real risk here is that Tony Abbott will be prime minister of this country on Sunday, and Anna Bligh will still be Premier (of Queensland).”]
Yeah I was thinking about that one BB and wondering if any of the more respected pollsters have done something similar.
@Guy/1299,
Shanahan.
libs drifting out on betfair now $2.70
Stick phat true believers, the forces of goodness will prevail.
We will win this of that I have no doubt.
The force is with us.
Well, all the noise has ended. The pollsters have made their last predictions and the news programs have had their last articles and interviews. It’s now in the voters’ hands. I implore that the inherent wisdom of the common man and the virtue of democracy shines through this time and prevents a government full of people we know aren’t ready, led by a nutter and gives us one full of experienced people led by someone who has the potential to be a great PM.
So if JWS is correct Labor has 56.5% of the 15% already voted. A good sign, I reckon, but out of synch with polls of voting intention. They seemed to get a much high % in the already voted compared with voting intention.
Ah Gapsted. Just 30km down the road from my place. Very nice place to spend a lazy afternoon.
henry
i have the lightsabre on full bore since sunup
the force is indeed with us
And still no bombshell Gus?!
I am off to bed now, I wish I was back in Australia so I could hand out HOV cards for the Greens.
I hope every one here has a fantastic day tomorrow, I am looking forward to the election count like I do every three years.
Sweet dreams,
Mick Stevens,
Dongguan, China
I wonder if any of that 56.5 are having an attack of buyer’s remorse (or indeed any of the 43.5 who voted Coalition)?
But it’s all tosh. We’ll know soon enough.
Stan, I know, it’s sucks that all the east states will come in at the same time. I enjoy the staggered results that happens when the election is on either on October / march. You get the tas & Vic results first then it’ll be up to the bad guys to chase it down via nsw and qld.
andrew
thank the msm for their complicity
*shields up*
BB
your expert prediction please ?
BB Labor appear this time to have made a much better effort in terms of prepolls and postals than 2007. Might be decisive in tight seats
Worst case Hung Parliament ALP 75 LNP 72 Ind 3 Green 0
Best case ALP 80 LNP 67 Ind 3 Green 0
[No harm in wishing, afterall.]
Thanks jenauthor – the thing is, this isn’t wishful thinking,
The libs are in with a chance, there are several realistic scenarios that have the ALP losing office tomorrow.
All this wasn’t possible until the ALP faceless men acted. We have them to thank.
Thank you Paul Howes, thank you
BB
[I wonder if any of that 56.5 are having an attack of buyer’s remorse (or indeed any of the 43.5 who voted Coalition)?
But it’s all tosh. We’ll know soon enough.]
Do they count the pre-polls tomorrow or later? If it’s later, there might be a disproportionately high Lib vote tomorrow which comes back when the pre-polls are counted.
The ALP would lose much more under KR.
[All this wasn’t possible until the ALP faceless men acted[
If they have no faces
how can we know who they are
or is this like the boogeyman,used to scare witless gullible children??
Don’t want to put the hex on anyone, so I’m keeping my opinions to myself. I’m a bit superstitious in that way.
Good on you Mick S, China plate..!
Mr Squiggle: Thanks for the info on the Gapsted wine. I’ll look out for it.
Bushie
coward
They’ll be the ones without faces (when we’re finished with them).
Amen brother gus.
As yoda would say, “a good election she has fought, she has fought a good election.”
I love the fact that all the faceless men not only have faces but are very well known.
The most Facy Faceless men going around.
rudd would have been crucified beyond belief if he had still been leader by the msm
Punters have (as at 11.50pm) outlaid $1.4million on Betfair’s overall winner market alone. So the Betfair market is quite substantial.
[If they have no faces
how can we know who they are]
Cobra Commander controls the ALP 😀
[rudd would have been crucified beyond belief if he had still been leader by the msm]
We’ll never know. Howie came back from worse positions than Rudd was in on several occasions.
Does anyone know who started the Facebook page “friends don’t let friends vote for Tony Abbot”? I would like to get in touch with them.
I have been watching the ABC campaign in review and Rudd really stands for nothing. He does not believe Global Warming is real. He wants to wind back the National marine Park which will threaten the Barrier Reef, He is a real threat to our economy and of elected to office will see Australia fall into a deep recession.
The Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate come July 2011 and there will be a double dissolution in November 2011 or March 2012
1322 diog
Antony Green has a post saying that at this election the pre-polls will be counted on the night, for the first time I think.
Stu
kev would have probably been dead if he was still leader
F*** I HATE SCUM OF THE MSM
coalition continue to drift out now $2.72
Regardless of how Gillard fares tomorrow, I’ll agree that Rudd would have fared worse.
[i have the lightsabre on full bore since sunup
the force is indeed with us]
😆
You’re an inspiration Gus
I party agree cupid.
I remember mentionibng on another forum when Gillard became PM that I went from being 95% sure Labor would win with Rudd to 100% sure Labor would win with Gillard.
yeah but howie had the stupid MSM pissing in his pocket.
Sorry.. I have been watching the ABC campaign in review and Abbott really stands for nothing. He does not believe Global Warming is real. He wants to wind back the National marine Park which will threaten the Barrier Reef, He is a real threat to our economy and of elected to office will see Australia fall into a deep recession.
The Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate come July 2011 and there will be a double dissolution in November 2011 or March 2012
itsthevibe
agreed.
Diogs,
Remember the ruse.
JJ
I understand it was from a greenie
FMD and KMITN
No, really. Whenever I make an emotional prediction without doing enough research, I’m always wrong.
Last election I did predict the 83 seats on Possum’s blog, but only because I’d been downloading Newspolls for 2 years before, tabulating them, correlating them and running simulations for another blog (under another name). Nothing of Possum’s quality, mind you, just the canned stats functions in Excel. Then again, he got it wrong and I got it right.
But not this time. I’ve been working on a project that takes a lot of my time and money, and can’t afford to be as anal as I was last election with the polling.
You’ll never know if Rudd would have done better than Julia, but I certainly hope he’s helped to shore up a few marginal seats around Brisbane.
[I have been watching the ABC campaign in review and Rudd really stands for nothing. He does not believe Global Warming is real. He wants to wind back the National marine Park which will threaten the Barrier Reef, He is a real threat to our economy and of elected to office will see Australia fall into a deep recession.]
Rudd does???