D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.


• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

Comments Page 24 of 24
1 23 24
  1. [Quick question. Bob brown was with his male partner in yesterdays Herald sun. +ve or
    -ve effect?]
    In Melbourne it will go down well 🙂

  2. [And I’ve just reported it to the WA State ALP Secretary 🙂

    The Wick has been lit 🙂 Expect Fireworks.]

    Love your work Frank

  3. grant, Abbott has NOT ruled out regulatory change, even today. Nicholls confirms he could change alot that way. Glad to hear Julia revive WC and Abbott asked about it in final day. May sway some undecideds

  4. Rocket Rocket said:

    [If the Greens did not exist, then Labor would be more “left wing” and the end result of that would be another “central” party from either moderate labor (DLP) or wet liberal (Democrat) and overall Labor’s position would probably be worse.

    The Greens have enabled Labor to move more to the centre, forcing the libs right.]

    I think it is the opposite.

    If the Greens did not exist then Labor would get many more votes, and would thus think they had more support.

    That the Greens exist enables voters to show that they thing that Labor needs to become much more progressive. And hopefully Labor will one day become more progressive in an attempt to win back some votes from the Greens.

    (Alternatively Labor and Liberal will merge, and the Greens will become the opposition!)

  5. Ron

    you ask what othr lie here ? Julia has repeat said her aim next term is to get its Labor CC polisy of an ETS mechanism in next term (incl saying it YESTERDAY at TV Press Club) , which is contary to what Green bloggers misleadingly say here

    Repeating a lie does not make it true. Post us some proof of this drivel. I’ve already posted the quote of Gillard saying she “would not rule out” an ETS.

  6. As I’ve said on here before, I think the Labor party has quite deliberately abandoned the Greens policy areas of CC and asylum seekers so as to concentrate on being centrist. I’m sure the Labor party is now quite fatalistic about/resigned to Greens balance of power in the Senate, and possibly even in the House of Reps.

    Given this, anyone who seriously wants to see action as soon as possible (and it needs to be sooner than that really) in terms of climate change policy would have to be voting Greens first preference this election. Labor above Libs for sure, but Labor has basically opened the door and said ‘go vote Green’ on this issue – intentionally and strategically.

    For me this actually hurts – I’ve long been very cynical about the Greens as an ex-Dem, and emotionally I want to vote directly for Julia – and I can say now that I only intend to vote Greens at this election because of the urgency of action required. I can’t see any other way to put pressure on the Labor party (or the Libs for that matter) on this issue, and I believe it is the most serious issue we face as a nation.

    I’m still actually dirty on the Greens for not passing the CPRS. I’ve said before that I honestly think despite being flawed and weak that it would have been much better to have it in place and work on improving it then to have nothing as we do now. However, that is the past – the CPRS is dead and we have to look to what can happen in its place.

    I still hope that when JG has (repeatedly) said she intends to put a price on carbon, without spelling out details, that she genuinely means it. I still have hope that JG will be a great prime minister once her government gets a senate that can be negotiated with to actually pass legislation. I have no proof, though, that JG and the Labor party can be relied upon on this, so I can’t put them first.

  7. [can you suggest any good legislation introduced by the Libs in their last terms in office?]

    That would be a GREAT trivia night question, really get everybody scratching their heads.

  8. TSOP agreed – will keep my retrospective until after Saturday, however regardless of the result it will be the same.

  9. It is just about snowing here so tomorrow will be cold, so thats good people stay with what they know especially if their hands are cold

  10. [Queensland isn’t sounding as nasty towards the ALP as it was a couple of weeks ago. The whole Joh Bjelke Petersen vibe seems to have significantly decreased in my opinion.]


  11. @Ron you keep citing that Greens backstabbed Labor on the ETS. Why introduce a policy that was not going to make a difference one bit to the environment. It did nothing. The point of an ETS is to get companies to move away from coal and encourage people to be more economical with their power/water usage.

    Rudd being the idiot that he is, chose not to go to the Greens until Turnbull got shunned by his party. The Greens asked for some amendments but Rudd was already being pulled by the Libs. Rudd was an idiot and he is the reason why Labor is in this position today. And if Rudd was smart he would have gone to a DD straight away and called for an election in late January/early Feb. Labor deserve all the hell they are getting in this election.

  12. GetLuiv 1123,

    Yes, yes, territory senators taker their place immedately, but they have been saying now for three elections that the Liberal’s could lose thier senate seat to Greens in the ACT and it hasn’t eventuated yet. While the Liberals are usually a minority in the ACT, they are fairly rusted on and I can’t see them ever getting less than 1 quota. The chances of 1 Green and 1 Liberal senator are more likely.

  13. @getluv/1169,

    Rather than amendments, wouldn’t you think they be better off putting the bill as a pass, then mending it later? It is hurting both parties now (Greens/Labor).

  14. george asked:

    [Michael Wilbur-Ham, can you suggest any good legislation introduced by the Libs in their last terms in office?]

    Without looking into the details, most of it was good.

    The media and bloggers only talk about the contentious legislation. Most legislation is fairly routine, and is approved by everyone.

    Of course good is in the eye of the beholder. So some will say that Howard’s workchoices was good. But as a progressive, I don’t think there would have been any contentious legislation that I would have thought good.

  15. gough1
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    “Personally I’d have a specific marginal NSW banner just saying “Tont Abbott will bring back workchoices” tomorrow to focus the minds of the punters”

    earlier i said some big Buntings i got yesterday to set up th Booth and showing fantastic Julai

    Gough1 , what I did not say was what othr Buntings I also got to put on fences at th Booth , but they big , and you will be happy , in fact very happy

  16. @Jackol if Labor was as half as serious on climate change as the Greens they would have gone straight to a DD. They didn’t. In fact, it could of used the Greens “backdown” to their advantage. Labor’s CPRS was a joke.

  17. @getluv/1176,

    You can’t get serious on climate change if you can’t get bills passed.

    FFS, even with amendments from the Greens it’s probably not enough for it to pass.

  18. @Aurielanus – the difference with this election is that the Libs have scared the public servants in regards to staff cut-backs and freezes, while the Greens are pro-public servants. Polling intentions indicate Greens and the Libs are both on 27%. Enough to give the Greens the senate spot.

  19. @brisoz – I know it was going to be a stretch considering that even if the Greens got something they liked that the Libs were going to appose it and it would have been 50/50, which means it can’t get passed. However, with the Libs being in disarray and the like, Rudd should of thought about hitting the DD button.

  20. @getluv 1169,

    I love this rewriting of history – it’s worthy of George Orwell. Labor submitted their ETS to the senate twice. It was opposed by the Libs, the Nationals, the Greens, Independent Senator Nick Xenophon, and Family First.

    Now we have no sensible carbon pollution reduction strategy in place, and no chance of having one in place until we can wipe the senate clean of climate obstructionists – including (I’m sorry to say) the Greens who apparently will not support anything other than their own flawed carbon tax. Why flawed? Because putting a price on carbon just raises the costs of emitting it without actually guaranteeing to reduce it. How sensible is that?

  21. [Word around the campfire is Westpoll tonight will have Labor behind in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in Canning.]

    Whooooh! Go Alannah!

    I’m sad that we’d be losing her from State Parliament (she was my minister when I was in the PS, and a good one at that), but pleased to see another proven performer heading for Canberra.

    Hope she can beat Randall.

  22. @getluv/1180

    If Abbott hit the DD button there is a possibility of falling even further in the polls, would you prefer that risk?

    There are plenty of policies that Rudd could have passed but hostile senate wasn’t letting him have his way.

  23. @Oscar it was flawed because all it was doing was buying time. There was so much incentives for the big coal plants to keep doing what they were doing. The point of a legislation is to change something. It was a big waste of tax payers money just to appease coal companies from struggling. If Rudd was a leader he would of come out a DD with over 90+ seats and possibly with the Greens or themselves in power in the Senate, and therefore have the ability to dictate their own policies.

  24. As I live in the Liberal Parties most safest seat in NSW Mitchell. I know if I vote Labor I’m just throwing my vote away and the Greens have no preferences going to anyone, how can I help Labor in this seat? Any suggestions…

  25. briefly at 1026

    Thanks – I’ll watch Parkes (and Calare, and Cowper) with interest; Nationals will surely be on their last legs if a few of them go.

    In addition to the things you mention, NBN must surely be better in non-metro areas than whatever not a tech head is proposing

  26. Too much stressing out going on here. Most election results are in line with with intentions at the beginning of the campaign. Nothing has happened to change my mind. Status quo to remain with 83 ALP.

    I wouldn;t be too sure that. I just got an automated FUD “The Abbotts are coming!” call on behalf of the ALP. This is GREENWAY FFS!

  27. Yeah, look – don’t lambast stevet a lot of the internal “comrades” are sh*t scared – no doubt about it. That’s certainly a lot of what i’m hearing too.

    But then they’re quite locally focussed – i don’t think anyone is thinking it isn’t close – so of course they’re worried. Esp the NSW (i don’t hear a lot out of Qld).

    I don’t think you’ll see psephos throw off his mask and cackal maniacally he knew it would be 90 seats all along tomorrow. I think everyone’s saying it’s close – i think plenty internally are a bit worried. She’s pretty much locked in now though – do whatever you can to have that last minute convo with someone undecided.

    Keep the nerve. I still think more undecideds than usual and I still think you’ll see some form of incumbant effect (i.e. it takes more convincing to change).

    But then what would I know 😉

  28. It gets worse. He’s just dished out $10 million to upgrade Brookvale Oval for the “silver-tailed” Sea Eagles!

    Any damage done by Gillard standing next to the NSW premier has just been irrevocably reversed!

  29. This strawpoll is currently running in the SMH,,,its of course an indication only and not scientific but a huge response and interesting figures…

    Poll: Who do you think is going to win the election?
    Poll form

    1. Please select an answer. Labor
    2. Liberals
    3. View results




    Total votes: 45118.
    Would you like to vote?

    You will need Cookies enabled to use our Voting Feature.

    Poll closes in 2 days.

    Vote now: Federal election


    These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.

  30. Thanks Kinkajou, Living in Mitchell sucks at election time. I will be crying in my soup if Abbott is elected on Saturday.

Comments Page 24 of 24
1 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *