Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential Research has come good with a final set of polling figures, and in two-party terms they’re no different from Monday’s, with Labor leading 51-49. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 38 per cent and the Coalition to 43 per cent, with the Greens up two to 12 per cent. The poll also gauges reasons for vote choice, whether respondents’ opinions of the leaders have gone up or down since the election was called (down in both cases) and firmness of vote, the latter confirming the impression of other polls that Labor support is “softer” than for the Coalition. I am also informed The West Australian will tonight publish a Westpoll that will show Labor trailing in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in the race to nab Canning from the Liberals. Then there’s this from the Courier-Mail:

Labor began the campaign with a worst-case scenario of the Coalition winning 10 Queensland seats. But party sources now believe the loss could be contained to three Queensland seats. This comes as internal ALP polling this week suggests as many as eight or nine seats could fall in NSW. LNP sources confirmed that late deciding voters were opting for Labor in many Queensland marginals. The LNP’s only “almost certain” gains have narrowed to Leichhardt, Flynn and Dawson. But Labor sources dispute Dawson, where they say they have their nose in front. But they say the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor seat of Forde would be “extremely hard” to retain. Labor also is worried about the bayside seat of Bonner and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert but is confident of holding Longman, Petrie and Brisbane.

My reading of the situation is that Labor’s position in Sydney seems to have soured over the final week, with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government. Bennelong is almost universally rated as lost for Labor, Lindsay will probably go too, and there might even be trouble for them in Greenway. However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens – although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal. But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear. Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll was quoted in The Australian today saying the “rusted on” vote at the current time is about 10 per cent lower than usual at about 60 per cent. The Australian’s Samantha Maiden offered that “an estrogen-fuelled surge of female voters has been cited as the secret weapon Gillard can count on to fall over the line”.

Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that “70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day – in autumn or summer – dawned dry across the country”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

338 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 7
1 2 … 7

  1. [Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that “70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day – in autumn or summer – dawned dry across the country”.]

    Despite such a trend, in a democracy that has compulsory participation I think the weather actually plays next to zero part in deciding which side wins.

  2. I finally understand Chris Uhlman’s apparent love of Abbbott above his wife

    [Shortly before leaving school in 1978 Chris made a spur of the moment decision to become a priest.

    A little over three years later he abandoned the idea and left the Catholic seminary where he had been studying, clutching an Associate Diploma in Religious Studies.]

  7. [wonder if he self flagellates as well?]

    Nah, he just flagellates JG, unless doing that to your wife’s boss counts as self-flagellation.

    Also, he flagellates DECENT JOURNALISTIC STANDARDS. grrr

  9. re robbo

    fwiw the greens i spoke to are quietly confident

    the neal effect is not being shown out-at least amongst those they worked with etc

    as regards a truce, the mesage was clear that Rabbott is the common foe

    Dobell is retain

    patto could be the boilover

  13. museboy, there are simply not enough seats to pick up in NSW for Abbott, and rememeber robopoll (AFTER rail link) Had Labor picking up 2 NSW seats

  14. [9 Gusface
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:13 pm | Permalink
    re robbo

    fwiw the greens i spoke to are quietly confident

    the neal effect is not being shown out-at least amongst those they worked with etc

    as regards a truce, the mesage was clear that Rabbott is the common foe

    Dobell is retain ]

    Guss did you see the email request from JJ faison for you to email him left his email on the other thread

  20. [So it’ll all come down to NSW.]

    All those hard working Lib candidates that were preselected 6 weeks ago. Does anyone really expect they have done the groundwork to win?

  22. I agree Andrew it’s better for the ALP that the battleground is now NSW than QLD. If the ALP is returned, I bet they can’t wait for March to roll around.

  23. Well I’ve just seen glimpses of an earlier Abbott press conference, and was shocked to see how cocky he looked.

    Not a good look.

  24. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lky2LYMgA5g&feature=av2n

    The final countdown]

    All that’s one is make me think of GOB Bluth…

  28. [Well I’ve just seen glimpses of an earlier Abbott press conference, and was shocked to see how cocky he looked.]

    How tired did he look?

  29. @ Dio — from last thread:

    Dio, sorry, misread your post.

    We agree.

    She will being in an ETS — said it yesterday at press club.

  30. [Well I’ve just seen glimpses of an earlier Abbott press conference, and was shocked to see how cocky he looked.

    Not a good look.]
    It’s to do with the large amount of V and Red Bull he’s consuming to stay awake.

  32. I think the LNP were relying heavily on the whole “Queenslanders were waiting on their roofs with baseball bats and pitchforks for Paul Keating” thing happening again but that seems to have significantly died down in the last week or so.

    In NSW however, since Gillard tied herself to the state ALP government with the rail link promise, it sounds as if things have been going nothing but down hill.

  34. [How tired did he look?]

    I didn’t detect tiredness, just cockiness. The question about ruling out changes to Fair Work brought a huge grin. Frankly, he seemed to be acting as if the election has already been won. No wonder the journos are taking the ‘where did it all go wrong’ line with the PM!

  36. If the ALP is returned, I bet they can’t wait for March to roll around.

    I can imagine quite a few Federal ALP politicians voting against NSW state ALP to put a stake through the heart of this zombie government.

    I still think if the ‘hard men’ of the NSW ALP had been really hard they would have forced the NSW state government to vote no-confidence in itself in July, purged the state government to relieve all that anti-ALP resentment so the feds could have a clean run.

    Federal is where it’s at – the states are consolation prizes and becoming less relevant as each year passes.

  38. andrew

    why?

    we aint going to lose

    (ps the msm are so one eyed that they burned the source)

    no stat dec
    no bombshell

    but thankfully the speculation may do damage than the fact

  39. All I can say is, if Labor gets up tomorrow and they commence the building of the Parra-Epping line, they will be able to use it to turn it on the Tories next time around.

  40. [No wonder the journos are taking the ‘where did it all go wrong’ line with the PM!]

    Taking a good look in a mirror might provide them with some answers.

  43. My Say, William wrote the following when opening this thread. The last sentence, to me at least is about accurate an assessment we are going to get until tomorrow night ?

    However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens – although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal.

    But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear.

  45. [ “Queenslanders were waiting on their roofs with baseball bats and pitchforks for Paul Keating” ]

    I thought it was verandas? We might be a bit different up here but waiting on the roof would just be weird.

  46. ALP insiders are increasingly confident about WA. That’s why J flew there for a few hours. The person I spoke with is also at a loss to explain the media’s fascination with Bennelong. They see it as a clear hold. Paterson is in play, believe it or not. In Victoria, Dunkley is possible ( along with McEwan and Latrobe). Corangamite is shaky for the ALP where the Libs have rund a very strong on-the-ground effort there. The losses for the ALP will still come from Western Sydney and Leichardt,Flynn and Dawson. Overall, not enough to lose Government. But – no one,non-one, really knows.

  47. Abbott’s in Manly; so Gillard going to Greenway isn’t a big deal. Both sides are looking for friendly visuals for tonight.

  48. ABC24 still running deliberately misleading Abbott grab where he evades guaranteeing no change to fair work act through regulations and ABC instead portrays it as firm stance on not making changes.

    Uhlmann saying how great Abbott looks and how frazzled Julia is. Apparently everyone in Labor is despondent and coalition buoyant.

    Time for Labor to challenge this bias live air. on Can’t do any harm now.

  49. If Labor win Canning I will be very happy. People should probably feel concerned that I’m rather optimistic for Labor’s chances at retaining government.

  50. [ Did Abbott not appear with state LNP leader JP Langbroek in Qld?

    No.]

    Thanks ruawake. Wow. Can’t see JPL making it to next state election as the LNP leader.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 7
1 2 … 7