Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential Research has come good with a final set of polling figures, and in two-party terms they’re no different from Monday’s, with Labor leading 51-49. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 38 per cent and the Coalition to 43 per cent, with the Greens up two to 12 per cent. The poll also gauges reasons for vote choice, whether respondents’ opinions of the leaders have gone up or down since the election was called (down in both cases) and firmness of vote, the latter confirming the impression of other polls that Labor support is “softer” than for the Coalition. I am also informed The West Australian will tonight publish a Westpoll that will show Labor trailing in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in the race to nab Canning from the Liberals. Then there’s this from the Courier-Mail:

Labor began the campaign with a worst-case scenario of the Coalition winning 10 Queensland seats. But party sources now believe the loss could be contained to three Queensland seats. This comes as internal ALP polling this week suggests as many as eight or nine seats could fall in NSW. LNP sources confirmed that late deciding voters were opting for Labor in many Queensland marginals. The LNP’s only “almost certain” gains have narrowed to Leichhardt, Flynn and Dawson. But Labor sources dispute Dawson, where they say they have their nose in front. But they say the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor seat of Forde would be “extremely hard” to retain. Labor also is worried about the bayside seat of Bonner and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert but is confident of holding Longman, Petrie and Brisbane.

My reading of the situation is that Labor’s position in Sydney seems to have soured over the final week, with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government. Bennelong is almost universally rated as lost for Labor, Lindsay will probably go too, and there might even be trouble for them in Greenway. However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens – although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal. But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear. Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll was quoted in The Australian today saying the “rusted on” vote at the current time is about 10 per cent lower than usual at about 60 per cent. The Australian’s Samantha Maiden offered that “an estrogen-fuelled surge of female voters has been cited as the secret weapon Gillard can count on to fall over the line”.

Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that “70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day – in autumn or summer – dawned dry across the country”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

338 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. All I can say is, if Labor gets up tomorrow and they commence the building of the Parra-Epping line, they will be able to use it to turn it on the Tories next time around.

    Maybe. Labor doesn’t seem to be getting much credit for its good deeds.

    More likely to get comments like *what took so long* and of course *broken promises* etc.

  2. [All I can say is, if Labor gets up tomorrow and they commence the building of the Parra-Epping line, they will be able to use it to turn it on the Tories next time around.]

    Absolutely. Wanna be O’Farrell will do everything he can to stand in its way to make fed Labor look useless!

  4. Thanks museboy. I think I panicked slightly this arvo. Yeah looks like Julia was going to some pre arranged stuff like the workers rally at Mt Druitt.

  6. Anyone been following Poss’s thread on the betting. Coalition is beginning to rebound back out in the betting.

    Poss says the data says ALP win.

  7. ‘Well I’ve just seen glimpses of an earlier Abbott press conference, and was shocked to see how cocky he looked.’

    Must be the effect of all that self-flagellation (?)

  9. Goshome

    But what if he’s right? What if Labor people are despondent and Coalition people bouyant? I thought Abbott did OK in his presser and so did Julia, but then these things are subjective. I just don’t see the bias.

  10. [ABC24 still running deliberately misleading Abbott grab where he evades guaranteeing no change to fair work act through regulations and ABC instead portrays it as firm stance on not making changes.

    Uhlmann saying how great Abbott looks and how frazzled Julia is. Apparently everyone in Labor is despondent and coalition buoyant.

    Time for Labor to challenge this bias live air. on Can’t do any harm now.]

    No wonder the ABC was tripping over it’s own feet in the mad scramble to get the station up and running for the election.

  12. [But what if he’s right? What if Labor people are despondent and Coalition people bouyant?]

    But what if he’s wrong ……?

  14. [What if Labor people are despondent and Coalition people bouyant?]

    They’re always buoyant! They’re arrogant and full of hubris. They take the big wins of 2001 and 2004 and think it means they are invincible. They are convinced 2007 was merely an error, in which Rudd got lucky and they have this belief affirmed by eachother. Remember how insufferable they become if there is even the slightest movement toward them…

    On the other hand, we are still haunted by Howard’s 11th hour victories and are really nervous to the last second when there is any doubt in the polling.

  15. @ Confessions – frankly, I thought Abbott looked like he felt he had it in the bag when last with Red Kezza on the 7.30 Report on the 17th.

  17. @Gusface I posted earlier, but not sure if you saw it. I hear you have some interesting info that could help sway things. Please contact me if this is really the case – admin@dailybludge.com.au

    I’m willing to publish whatever it may be, defamation laws be damned (honestly). I’ve got a dedicated server with loads of bandwidth to spare. Let’s make a difference.

    Also, if you all haven’t seen and shared this already, please Facebook, Tweet, and e-mail this link around:

    10 Reasons NOT to Vote for Tony Abbott
    http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/08/10-reasons-not-to-vote-for-tony-abbott/

  18. [@ Confessions – frankly, I thought Abbott looked like he felt he had it in the bag when last with Red Kezza on the 7.30 Report on the 17th.]

    He always looks that way.

    Leaders are often the last to know.

  19. Museboy – yes, that comment in isolation looks okay. When it runs off the back of a misleading edit and you get an absolutely personal view of how the candidates look, then it continues a theme.

    I know it is easy to see bias where you want to and it will be assumed I am rusted on Labor – seeing what I want to see. All I can say is I have worked in or with the media for 30 years and I have never seen coverage like this.

  20. This has got a touch of 1990 about it – Richo got Hawke over the line with green preferences. The ALP primary was around 38.

  22. Jen

    Umm no. Gillard said she “would not rule out” an ETS. I fail to understand how anyone is interpreting her as saying she says she will bring one in.

  23. The fact that Labor are holding well around $1.50 after hitting $1.55 is very encouraging. Would like to see it back into the $1.30s for that extra shot of confidence.

  24. Tom

    True – but then Barry Cassidy had a similar line from his contacts as well. All this confirms is that Labor HQ want the “it’s too close to call” line to get out. This ties in with Julia’s ‘risk’ argument today, and let’s face it she has ramped up the negativity today.

    My question is about Labor’s motives – do they really think they are going lose and starting to panic, or do they believe they’re nearly there and just need to nudge those waving voters across the line? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

  26. What pathetic election coverage we are getting from the ABC. They are now obsessed with Abbott’s attempt to remain awake for 30 hours. This is Forrest Gump Australian style – run Tony run! The Liberal campaign team must be wetting themselves – every stupid idea they come up with is swallowed hook, line and sinker by their ABC.

  27. :[pm | Permalink
    museboy, there are simply not enough seats to pick up in NSW for Abbott, and rememeber robopoll (AFTER rail link) Had Labor picking up 2 NSW seat]

    my oh knows nothing about nsw and polling and said the same thing and we live in tas

  28. [Uhlmann saying how great Abbott looks and how frazzled Julia is. Apparently everyone in Labor is despondent and coalition buoyant.]

    I didn’t see it myself but my sister was telling me that on that rubbish Channel 9 program this morning (I think) Julia was interviewed and, after the interview the presenters said wtte, let’s see what she’s like with the pressure off and some camera showed her in the lift, scratching her head and looked “haggard”.

    Is this actually so? If so, it’s a bloody dirty trick.

  29. Well – if it is any indication (or consolation to Labor Punters) the stock market looks like it expects a labor win on saturday.

    The mining company indices are down about 3% on the week. There was a negative lead overnight from US & European markets, but IF the market expected a liberal win, with no mining tax maybe those stocks would be up ?

    Make of it what you will.

  30. Oscar
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    “@getluv 1169,

    I love this rewriting of history – it’s worthy of George Orwell. Labor submitted their ETS to the senate twice. It was opposed by the Libs, the Nationals, the Greens, Independent Senator Nick Xenophon, and Family First.

    Now we have no sensible carbon pollution reduction strategy in place, and no chance of having one in place until we can wipe the senate clean of climate obstructionists – including (I’m sorry to say) the Greens who apparently will not support anything other than their own flawed carbon tax. Why flawed? Because putting a price on carbon just raises the costs of emitting it without actually guaranteeing to reduce it. How sensible is that? ”

    I’ve said same numerous times to corect Greens fibs here , but Osscar you say it better

    For those interested in seeing what a mislead galah Diognous is , listen to audio of Julia’s TV Press Club address yesterday …Julia my aim next term is to get a ETS mechanism which is Labor polisy which Prof Garnaut Report recommended in writing

  31. [Australian style – run Tony run! The Liberal campaign team must be wetting themselves – every stupid idea they come up with is swallowed hook, line and sinker by their ABC]

    is this on their 24/7 may daugher cannot get that channel with a set top box

    why is that.

    But do you think the australia people will say for goodness sake who dam well cares

    .

  32. ABC coverage in this campaign has been the most biased in the history of public broadcasting. Its remarkable. God knows whose driving it.

  34. [presenters said wtte, let’s see what she’s like with the pressure off and some camera showed her in the lift, scratching her head and looked “haggard”.

    Is this actually so? If so, it’s a bloody dirty trick]

    what a disgrace was wilkinson

  35. @al palster

    Big business interests who wish to see a return to a deregulated labor market and an end to the mining tax.

  37. What pathetic election coverage we are getting from the ABC. They are now obsessed with Abbott’s attempt to remain awake for 30 hours. This is Forrest Gump Australian style – run Tony run!

    Which is exactly why abbott is doing it !

    Now I wonder why its not be called for the stunt that it is by the media ?? Yet Gillard only has to say *Going Forward* and she is torn apart.

  39. @TSOP #68

    I disagree. He’s often “jolly”, laughing, smiling, making a show – he presents as quite a decent bloke. This was more “you won’t treat me like this next week when I’m PM”

  40. [Which is exactly why abbott is doing it !]

    I’m with you Dave. The ABC should be calling it a stunt but instead they are presently it as a remarkable human achievement. Pathetic.

  44. Regarding ABC bias. A friend of mine said he watched Virginia on ABC2 this morning rip Scott Morrison apart this morning regarding proposed education cuts.

  45. @Ron She’s only guaranteeing that a 5% reduction on the table despite Garnaut saying there should be a 25% reduction. Labor is all talk, a bit like the Libs.

  48. [82 al palster
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:45 pm | Permalink
    ABC coverage in this campaign has been the most biased in the history of public broadcasting. Its remarkable. God knows whose driving it.[

    when Julia is returned we must start a campaign of writing to senators

  50. Oh sorry, the Abbott snippet was from The Australian. Even they are reporting it correctly. The ABC’s credibility will never recover from the past few weeks.

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