Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby

Adelaide’s Sunday Mail newspaper (a News Limited stablemate of The Advertiser) has published a poll of 564 voters conducted on Wednesday in the Adelaide electorate of Boothby, which shows the Liberals with a 52-48 two-party lead. This represents a 1 per cent swing to Labor, but it comes off a disastrous local campaign in 2007 when the swing to Labor was limited to 2.4 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent statewide. On the primary vote, Liberal member Andrew Southcott is on 46 per cent against 35 per cent for Labor candidate Annabel Digance, 10 per cent for the Greens and 3 per cent for Family First. Further attitudinal questions are better for Labor than might be expected: the Liberals’ lead as best party to manage the economy is 48 per cent to 43 per cent, Labor leads on the River Murray 46 per cent to 29 per cent, and 45 per cent of respondents believed Gillard cares more about families compared with 36 per cent for Tony Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. The previous Advertiser poll a week ago had Labor with a staggering 67-33 lead in Kingston, where their margin is 4.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

981 comments on “Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby”

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  1. Allan,

    Notwithstanding Bluey’s contribution, the dominant figure of this election campaign to date is Kevin Rudd.

  2. Darren @ 737

    [I notice the ACT Liberals 2nd Senate candidate, Matthew Watts, is a public servant.]

    Shouldn’t he have resigned by now? I thought an officer of the crown etc….

  3. [ Telling the truth, much like altruism, is often a dilemma for those who subscribe to secular humanism and, in Julia’s case, evolved atheism. ]

    Because Christians have a long and esteemed history of truthiness.

  4. Stephen Conroy wins something at last, thank Dawkins – just in time for the election::

    Conroy dubbed dumbest pollie in survey

    At the launch of National Cyber Security Awareness Week in Melbourne last June, Senator Conroy puzzled listeners by declaring: “There’s a staggering number of Australians being in having their computers infected at the moment, up to 20,000, uh, can regularly be getting infected by these spams, or scams, that come through, the portal (sic).”

    He later added: “If you were doing a banking transaction, or transmitting personal information, (Google) could have hoovered it up, sucked it up into their machine.”

    Runner up in the Zoo survey was Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who has been described as having the intellect of an earthworm by eminent scientist Richard Dawkins, after saying he thought the earth was less than 10,000 years old.

    I love that.

  5. [Shouldn’t he have resigned by now? I thought an officer of the crown etc….]

    I don’t think he expects to win. 😉

  6. [I find the “death stare” that Abbott gives to the interviewer when caught out lying to be highly disturbing.]

    Cuppa,

    One thing that really amuses me about Abbott is his tough-guy routine, based largely on him winning an award of some kind for his boxing exploits at Oxford.

    I mean, Oxford University…? Hardly the means streets of Brooklyn.

  7. Off to zzzzz land, to dream of a 52-48 newspoll in favour of big red. Then to watch the poor sods at Sky explain polly trends 101. 🙂

  8. GG and BK

    After my intemperate F*** to Frank some days ago I have eschewed swearing for the rest of the campaign.

  9. Hairynose:

    [(On screen text. Abbott: “I think it would be folly to expect that women will ever dominate or even approach equal representation in a large number of areas simply because their aptitudes, abilities and interests are different for physiological reasons).”]

    [Anyone else think its crucial that the ALP use this quote in an Ad in a prominent manner?]

    I agree it’s a killer quote. He really is an out-of-touch knuckledragger. If people knew the extent of his benighted boorishness I don’t think they’d be able to get to the booths to vote against him quickly enough.

    The problem with using the quote in an ad is that I think it would go over most people’s heads. The sentence is 36 words long, with uncomfortable big words, complex grammatical structure and stuff. Whatever else Abbott might be, he does know how to keep things simple. Consider the slogan he’s used hundreds of times in past months:

    [Great Big New Tax]

    Four words, and not one of the more than one syllable. Keep it simple, I think is the way to go. Sorry if this sounds elitist or whatever.

  10. William reports that Antony Green has noted due to preference deals it’ll be very hard for Lee Rhiannon to win a Senate seat. Bob Brown will heave a sigh of relief privately I’m sure.

  11. Hairy Nose
    [Or even better just ‘any’ women giving her reaction to it]
    It seems that if the ALP campaign against the Rabbott it is a dirt campaign. Apparently, we are not allowed to attack his record, his integrity & honesty based on his own statements. It’s almost as if there is some ‘illegal’ overtones to the ALP fighting the Rabbott. Instead they have been relegated to defending themselves against gossip.

    He started the perceptions on this when he continually chanted the ALP will go dirty against me.

    ‘Big’ Headlines on the news. Gillard to go negative on Abbott.

    He has been gifted this election.

  12. [ Ged Kearney GedKACTU
    ACTU radio ads start tomorrow focusing on policies – radical I know! stark differences b/n ALP and LNP on super health & education 3 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone

    ]

  13. I do think it’s a bit rich for Abbott to be complaining about Labor attacks on him when the public record is simply littered with his idiotic musings about any number of things. If he doesn’t want his opponents to draw attention to these brain snaps, perhaps he should just keep his trap shut?

  14. Cuppa,

    [I agree it’s a killer quote. He really is an out-of-touch knuckledragger. If people knew the extent of his benighted boorishness I don’t think they’d be able to get to the booths to vote against him quickly enough.]

    I think this sort of stuff should be dished out in dribs and drabs. We don’t want to have a stampede of angry women all trying to get into the polling booths at the same time.

    Only for OH & S reasons of course! 😉

  15. [The problem with using the quote in an ad is that I think it would go over most people’s heads. ]

    Apologies for being behind, but is there a link to this new ad?

  16. Abbott hasn’t been personally attacked to the extent Rudd was in 2007 either. Its routine for Opposition Leaders to get a negative campaign heaped on them and the harshest thing the ALP have said so far is that he ripped a billion dollars out of health care.

  17. [I do think it’s a bit rich for Abbott to be complaining about Labor attacks on him when the public record is simply littered with his idiotic musings about any number of things. If he doesn’t want his opponents to draw attention to these brain snaps, perhaps he should just keep his trap shut?]
    This from the bloke who sanctioned Lemon07.

  18. Dee

    [He has been gifted this election.]

    I hate to bring up yet again the argument that seems to have ben going around in circles but, to my mind, he certainly has with the great assistance of the media, whether it be TV, radio or what passes for newspapers in Australia today.

    I can’t recall a party being given such a clear run with the exception of a few articles by those I consider to retain some honour for their profession – and there is precious little of that. As far as I’m concerned the quicker a certain newspaper baron joins the Norwegian Blue parrot the better, which is a terrible thing to say about a human being but I’m not sure the gentleman in question is. I think you all know to whom I refer.

  19. [This from the bloke who sanctioned Lemon07.]
    There just seems to be collective amnesia on who the real Rabbott is.
    The media have been complicit in presenting him as someone new & fresh. They too, as the Rabbott did, are pre-emptively striking about the ALP ads.
    As I stated before, the news stated Gillard to go negative on Abbott. What sort of impression does that conjure before the ad has been aired????

  20. Frank
    A bit rough on Herbert… a castrated ram with a bell hung round its neck so that it can lead a flock of sheep…

  21. [He started the perceptions on this when he continually chanted the ALP will go dirty against me.]

    He pinched that line from Kevin and Julia, who said it about the Liberals leading into the 07 election.

  22. [This from the bloke who sanctioned Lemon07.]
    Funnily enough I just saw one of the Kevin Lemon ads tonight. And it wasn’t the guillotine one with Julia either, it was the original they had before Rudd Removal.

    Libs obviously decided they couldn’t afford to waste whatever money they’d spent on putting it together in the first place.

  23. Jon even if Labor started now they wouldn’t be able to catch up to the Rudd count. Off the top of my head:
    – Rudd visited a strip club
    – Rudd dined with Brian Bourke
    – Rudd was to attend a ‘false’ dawn service
    – Rudd had a heart operation
    – ‘Mrs Rudd’ is an awful boss
    – Rudd lied about his upbringing

    That’s a pretty tough list to beat 🙂

  24. [Abbott hasn’t been personally attacked to the extent Rudd was in 2007 either.]

    True. And Abbott seemed to happily wear the headkicker tag when in government – remember him yelling in QT at Beazley, calling him an old windbag or something? Yet here he is moaning about Labor having a go at him. It really is hilarious.

  25. [True. And Abbott seemed to happily wear the headkicker tag when in government – remember him yelling in QT at Beazley, calling him an old windbag or something? Yet here he is moaning about Labor having a go at him. It really is hilarious.]
    It’s what happens to bullies when they get a bit of their own medicine?

  26. Things must be tough in the Mining Industry these days. One poor billionaire has been forced to clean his own pool for goodness sakes. Of course every worker in Australia can afford a pool, just not the cleaner! 😉

    Another poor soul has to take his own kids to Auskick on Saturday mornings. With the poor metals prices lately and JG’s new Workplace laws that mean he has to pay Jeeves a “proper” wage now, of course he can’t afford the overtime on Saturday.

    It’s an absolute killer blow to the average mining billionaire’s household budget, don’t you know! 😉

    [Mining company heads fronting reporters during the launch on Sunday were asked about a Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) ad campaign called Fair Go for Billionaires.

    The campaign satirically praises Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and his plans plans to ditch the MRRT and hand hand $10.5 billion in tax revenue back to “ordinary, everyday billionaires”.

    The ads say “Abbott understands” that billionaires are feeling the pinch with the high cost of mansion and yacht maintenance and a spike in caviar and Lamborghini tyre prices.

    They applaud Mr Abbott’s courage in cutting funds for hospitals, schools and roads to make up for lost MRRT revenue.

    When asked about the ads on Sunday, BC Iron managing director Mike Young said the number of yellow and orange shirts at Perth Airport on a Monday morning showed how many non-billionaires there were in the industry.

    “I’m not a billionaire, I was in my pool this morning cleaning it, I don’t hire someone to clean my pool.

    “I’m just an ordinary bloke trying to make a living, trying to run a company and trying to hire people.”

    Atlas Iron managing director David Flanagan said he had taken his children to Auskick to learn to play Aussie rules on Sunday morning.]
    http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/view_breaking_news_article.ac?page=/data/news_research/published/2010/8/213/catf_100801_165000_4762.html

  27. ltep

    [- Rudd dined with Brian Bourke]

    What they said was Rudd had dined with the devil – not once, not twice but THREE times!

    These people call themselves Christians BTW.

  28. ltep

    But did he ever “inhale” or “have sex with that woman”. See there are a lot worse things he could have done that we DON’T know about yet. LOL.

    By the way, and OT, but is your nickname Ltep, Itep or ltep – there seem to be several variations in reply to your posts?

  29. [It’s what happens to bullies when they get a bit of their own medicine?]

    Yep, they tease and hurt all of the other kids in the playground but as soon as one fights back they run off crying to mummy. (Who, of course, believes their child is a little angel and lashes out at the child who was just defending themselves.)

    A perfect parable.

  30. Bernie Ripoll made this speech in response to the Rabbott’s racist remarks.
    He asked where are all the Australians in the Australian Labor Party? In reference to the Greeks, Asians, Italians in parliament.
    More to it than this. He was forced to apologise only to start the same crap with Costello the following day, pointedly picking on an Asian Labor candidate.
    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/genpdf/chamber/hansardr/2006-03-01/0125/hansard_frag.pdf;fileType%3Dapplication%2Fpdf

  31. Scorpio @ 789

    Well my father was a coal miner in Scotland and we never had a valet, butler, cook, upstairs maid or any other servants so I do feel for him. Oh wait on, now that I remember we did, she was called MUM! Oh and the pool was one of those rubber things in the back garden – not that we used it much by the time you scraped the ice off!

  32. Well, I exposed some raw nerves tonight! ;). To me, still preferable to the usual ALP Cheerleaders/Agony Aunt session.

    A summary

    1. Some of you are not nearly as clever as you presume yourself to be (mind you self-deception is a bit rampant tonight!) if, out of this statement:

    “If Julia is, as she claims to be, an atheist, are we to assume that she is under no compunction to tell the truth?”

    a) It was a question.
    b) How does one derive the fallacious proposition that theists are (actually) more honest than atheists. I would dispute this and it is certainly not implied.
    c) The comment is true. Julia is under no COMPUNCTION to tell the truth as an atheist, unless there is some secular charter, book or ‘general vibe, man’ that I have not been informed about. Tony Abbott, as almost every blogger has assumed tonight, IS under compunction to tell the truth because he claims to be a Christian. Whether Julia does or not is personal choice.
    d) Not one person here has shown evidence nor reason which would support the morality of telling the truth as an athiest. This NOT, repeat N-O-T to say that atheists don’t or that some may be even addicted to honesty as atheists but why would you as a politician?? You would get hung by Kerry O’Brien.
    e) it is always good to actually READ a blog entry before calling people morons (which I am relatively confident I am not, just because I hold views contrary to others here)

    2. The real reason that I have had three pseudonyms is because my original one was linked to a now defunct email account. Anyone want to stone me yet??. The second was one which was only used to write a continuous narrative (which, incidently, LTEP, praised and lambasted both sides of Australian politics) as Captain Gerrymander. The final pseudonym, linked to an email account which is also a pseudonym is the current one I use. Yep, that makes me pure evil guys, thanks for the crap heaped on me tonight.

    Enjoy your election.

  33. Allan I’m not fussy 🙂 ltep is fine. It was originally all upper case but when we transitioned over to Crikey I did it in lower case for some reason. Probably more fitting.

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