Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby

Adelaide’s Sunday Mail newspaper (a News Limited stablemate of The Advertiser) has published a poll of 564 voters conducted on Wednesday in the Adelaide electorate of Boothby, which shows the Liberals with a 52-48 two-party lead. This represents a 1 per cent swing to Labor, but it comes off a disastrous local campaign in 2007 when the swing to Labor was limited to 2.4 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent statewide. On the primary vote, Liberal member Andrew Southcott is on 46 per cent against 35 per cent for Labor candidate Annabel Digance, 10 per cent for the Greens and 3 per cent for Family First. Further attitudinal questions are better for Labor than might be expected: the Liberals’ lead as best party to manage the economy is 48 per cent to 43 per cent, Labor leads on the River Murray 46 per cent to 29 per cent, and 45 per cent of respondents believed Gillard cares more about families compared with 36 per cent for Tony Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. The previous Advertiser poll a week ago had Labor with a staggering 67-33 lead in Kingston, where their margin is 4.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

981 comments on “Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby”

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  1. So “Great Big New Tax Great Big New Tax” is fine politics, but when Labor points out that Abbott has promised to cut services and initiatives, indeed boasts of it as his main policy platform and something he is morally bound to do for the good of the country, The Age sees includes this in an article titled “Labor prepares smear campaign against Abbott .”

    In a further negative onslaught, Labor is also stepping up warnings that Mr Abbott as prime minister would wield ”a great big axe” on vital services.

    Labor can go on the attack all it likes, but unless the media print it, and run with it as they have run with Abbott’s similar negative campaign, there is little hope.

  2. Psephos
    Posted Saturday, July 31, 2010 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    ‘once Rudd has had a good rest, unleash him on the rest of the campaign – he’ll be now much fitter and ready to let rip on Abbot!’

    *with asperity* If Rudd was popular he’d still be PM. It was Rudd’s talent for pissing people off that created this situation in the first place. Perhaps we should let Latham loose on the marginals as well?”

    Adam , that was naive , you obvious never lived in Q’ld prob most parochal State in oz
    Kevin Rudd is Quneenslanders own nerd to Queenslanders and if anyone was going to chop off a Q’lder PM its Q’lders voters , not ‘Southerners’

    suggest you look at 2007 results , and Qld swings then delivering so many big swings and seats vs Fed ALP record in Q’lder for past 20 yrs except 1996 ,and Rudd being form Q’ld was ‘a factor’

    At minimum Julia must campaign public with Kevin in Griffith a couple of times , one as ‘a Q’ld sop’ to sooth/motavate always needed ALP troops on th ground to 21/8 , and two to undermine perseption that Kevin Rudd is source of Leaks which is giving leaks some credibility , and three to give nuanse to voters that Labor Govt is united , and is not in disunity

    (and i googled that 2nd word , and it makes no sense)

    I can hardly beleive Bruce Hawker is not saying this , and for you to it seems dismiss this is amazing

  3. Abbotts “Great Big New Tax ” about a non Labor tax gets headlines

    Abbotts ACTUAL tax rise of 1.7 % for certain Companys gets NO headlines

    Also , Abbots 1.7% tax hits Coles and woolies , so eg grocerys will be higher under Libs ,
    and I’m sure 00 & MSN must sometime highlites this consequense surely , seeing Swan has repeatedly said so , but alas no

    Its one thingy to wear Media bias , but its another to got to wear blatant misleading of actual fact (by ommission) of a Party’s position in a supposed West Minister Electon by total MSN (and I include Radio from my 2 weeks of checks)

  4. Definitions of asperity on the Web:

    * something hard to endure; “the asperity of northern winters”
    * harshness of manner

  5. Sir Oftswing
    Posted Sunday, August 1, 2010 at 3:34 am | Permalink

    “Definitions of asperity on the Web:

    * something hard to endure; “the asperity of northern winters”
    * harshness of manner ”

    thats about what i saw , manners and winters

    Adam is a soft nature so ignored that opton
    that left me with those ‘winters’ bit , so what th hell has that got to do with Kevin Rudd living in Brissie , a land of always Summer

  6. Paul J

    I just read Laura Tingle’s article in the Walkley Foundation. Have a look and tell me which one should have all the web traffic.

    To compare, only one is a gossip piece, told by a man who sounds like he’s had too much to drink and hates Rudd.

    The other is a piece which investigates the mining industries lobbying and smear campaign, propergated by a lazy media industry, hell bent on gotcha stories, which is only going feed the superficial.

    Which on do you think is helping democracy and working for the citizens that read it?
    The gossip piece or the mining investigative piece?

  7. I see the idiot Downer has emerged and is blathering about leaks. Except he is talking about the Libs leaking stuff.

    Did Downer leak details of cabinet discussions to Rudd?

  8. That is certainly the bombshell revelation of the campaign if a former Foreign Minister in a Liberal Government is running around leaking cabinet secrets to Labor. A very strange thing to be admitting to publicly I’d have thought.

  9. A 2.4 Swing in 2007 against the backdrop of a 6.8 State wide indicates that the magnitude and resonance of the swing had not reached its full potential. It could be the gravitational power of incumbency. Local factors of course always play a role. You also need to look back one more election to 2004 to determine from what base the swing was pivoted. This is the sort of analyze that is missing from the Antony Green standard swing pendulum. It just does not show the real state of play.

  10. There goes all the advantage the Liberals gained last week because shock, horror Labor leaks cabinet documents.

    Now the claim is that Labor leaks what the Liberals have leaked to Labor. This campaign is quickly becoming the silliest ever. Another couple of smear attempts against Rudd of the quality of this one and the Liberals will find themselves totally unelectable.

    The Liberals have been throwing mud at Rudd and trying to discredit Rudd from the time he became a threat to them. From Scores. to earwax, to utegate … on and on it has gone from one dodgy unsustainable allegation that each time they thought Rudd would be the end of him.

    Now they start a mud throwing exercise against Rudd while he is in his hospital bed. The Liberals need another decade or two in Opposition to learn to cleanup their act.

  11. Downer did not mention leaking to Rudd at the 2001, 2004, 2007 elections yet all of a sudden 12 years later it is relevent?

    Maybe Dolly is missing being in the public spotlight and envies the attention given to Mad Mark?

  12. What is clear is that if the Greens are allowed to hold the balance of power or Abbot begins to undermine Australia’s Overseas Educational training and migration program Australia’s future will be very much under pressure as would ordinary workers Superannuation. We are facing the prospect of a double dip recession and cus in services and government initiatives will only exacerbate the economic pitfalls, We could easily see inflation and unemployment on the rise under a Abbott Government. As more and more baby boomers take early retirement demands on the system will increase. This is not the time to cut and slash, Like itb or not Australia needs skilled migration to fill the vacuum and support required to sustain economic activity as Australia grows old. The Labor Government had the courage to act to introduce Superannuation, which apart from being not the best investment option is never the less a major factor to Australia’s economic stability as we grow older. Pushing back the retirement age will not help unless they can change Employees attitudes to employing an older workforce, Not enough has been done in this area. In the end the fears of a return to Abbott economics and ultra right policies are much greater burden on Australia.

    Should Abbott be elected or the Greens secure the balance of power, I would be restructuring my superannuation to try and limit the savings loss that will result from the instability of government policy. Now is not the time to move backwards.

  13. [Bob Brown needs to publicly criticise this


    v. re·tard·ed, re·tard·ing, re·tards
    To cause to move or proceed slowly; delay or impede.
    To be delayed.
    1. A slowing down or hindering of progress; a delay.
    2. Music A slackening of tempo.]

    Seems to be a fairly accurate description of Labor’s “policy” on climate change.

  14. I think the Mole is not Rudd. IN discussing this issue with a number of people over the weekend. There as a suggestion that the leak was coming from a Melbourne Source. Someone from the Left who resents Gillard rise in stature, Someone who is close to Laurie Oakes and close to government. A staffer or member of parliament. If in fact the comments referred to by Oakes as sources say are in fact true should not Laurie oaks be called on to substantiate the source and reflect on the motive behind the alleged leaks?

  15. [Mr Rudd’s spokesman says he entirely refutes Mr Downer’s allegations.
    He says they are completely and utterly false and he is seeking legal advice.]

    Idiot Downer is being screamed from Lib CHQ. 😆

  16. Geez…I know it’s fashionable to hide behind the mantra of “confidentiality”….but a perfect market (the big 2 parties are both advocates of the market system – and ensuring it works fairly) surely requires that the names of the parliamentary staffers, advisers and senior party officials. betting on elections be discosed, as well as the nature of their bets.

    Parties bet they will lose

  17. Met two lots of vote changing voters yesterday! Soft conservatives who gave Howard one last chance last election but are voting Gillard this time. They are teachers/lecturers at international colleges who are doing it tough with the strong Aussie dollar and terrified that Abbott will kill their industry through his approach to immigration!

  18. So Downer apparently has his memory back after being unable to recall the 275 or so emails and briefings on the bribes paid to Saddam.

    Maybe it is false memory syndrome tainted by his intense jealousy and hatred for Rudd?

  19. DemocracyATwork

    Last night whilst twidding with the radio dial, I happened upon a comment by John Kerr on 2ue talking about the leak. John Kerr seems to be pretty reasonable fellow. His comment was that he had heard from an authoritive source that the leak was NOT from Kevin Rudd. he didnt say anything further.
    Remember Oakes said the source was somewhere closer to home. That could match up with your comment that it is someone from Melbourne.

  20. This full scale attempt to smear Rudd seems like a bit of a beat up to keep the media cycle on Labor’s recent stumbles and to attempt to blunt any advantages his assistance to the Labor campaign might have.

  21. [ Downer is a Maggie Beer Pate short of a full Adelaide Hills picnic basket ]

    That makes him pretty bloody ordinary then IMHO 🙂

  22. bakunin,

    It’s the context in which the word is used and intended, it is highly offensive to me and I would suggest to any one with an intellectually disabled child or relative. Surprised they didn’t say the policy was gay but then they would have seen that as offensive right ?

  23. [ “Without us there’d be no stimulus package, Tony Abbott’s party wanted to block that.” ]

    ala we got out of the way, aren’t we good! Excellent approach, do it more.

  24. It is quite good fortune that Downer is out there throwing mud around. Labor now needs to run some ads reminding people of a certain AWB sending money to a certain dictator just before Australia took part in a certain war.

    This whole leaking stuff is getting pretty silly now.

  25. [Alexander Downer says his comments about Kevin Rudd have been misinterpreted and the Daily Telegraph story is a beat-up.

    He says Mr Rudd was not used by the Liberal Party as a double agent to leak material against other ALP members.

    “The interpretation placed on my comments to the Sunday Telegraph is wrong. Kevin Rudd was not used by me or other members of hte Liberal Party as a so-called ‘double agent’ to leak material against other members of the Labor Party.”]

    He has been kicked in the bum by Lib HQ.

  26. One wonders how differently this campaign would be playing out now if the Libs and their policies had been subjected to the same level of scrunity as Labor has.

    For example, imagine for a moment if the media decided it was worth having a go at Abbott’s propensity for cutting short press conferences when the questions start getting a little bit sticky? He does it time and again and yet it hasn’t been an issue for him. But what if it had?

    Imagine every press conference where the first question is not about policy, but about why he won’t answer blah question. Where the second question is asking him why he won’t answer the hard questions. Where the third questions is about why he won’t submit himself and his policies to proper scrutiny? Where the fourth question is about their costings? And the fifth. And the sixth. Where the seventh question suggests that Malcolm Turnbull is watching and waiting with a baseball bat for when the Libs lose the election? Where, before the eighth questions is asked, Abbott scarpers, thereby setting up the Catch-22 for the next day’s presser?

    Imagine then the print and TV media taking the ball and running with this: What Abbott Won’t Tell You; Libs’ Rubbery Figures; Abbott Leadership Under a Cloud; etc. Relentlessly, day in; day out.

    You’d have to wonder what the polls would now be saying in that alternative reality…

  27. Looks like the good start to the Sunday Agenda program last month has regressed into the usual Labor bash.

  28. That piece of *#@%&* in the OZ quoting Downer on Rudd is so bad that nobody even had the guts to put their name to it.

    The media has now sunk to such a low now that I rarely watch or read pretty much of anything they spew out now.

    I thought about watching Meet the Press this morning and will probably miss Insiders again.(the same print media drones appear with the same biased propaganda and pap)

    There seems to be a concentrated campaign to ensure Labor doesn’t get to retain Government and I can only assume it is to do with the NBN program hoping to keep their shameful industry on life support for at least a further three years while they look for ways to keep themselves relevant to public discourse in this country.

    It’s utterly shameful that they would prefer to see the country go to hell in an LNP basket than progress forward in a measured and equitable manner with all citizens getting a fair share of a distribution of the country’s boundless natural resources and a fair go in regard to public services such as health, education & social security.

    Those blinkered souls who try and imply that there is “no” or very little difference between Labor & the Coalition take either an extremely narrow view of the two Parties or are blinded by partisan political motives. (That’s you to some degree Greens).

  29. What has downer or Rudd to do with the current campaign? Didn’t Rudd give Downer a job, isn’t he supposed to be in Cyprus fixing up a war.

  30. If SkyNews put Abbott or his minions under 20% of the attack that they have just launched on Tania Plibersyk we’d be home and hosed.

  31. scorpio @40

    On Channel 7 they just showed a signed press release from Downer who claimed that the Terrorgraph had misrepresented what he’d said to make the story more controversial.

    it must be bad when even Downer is complaining that they have gone too far.

  32. Mithrandir,

    [It is quite good fortune that Downer is out there throwing mud around. Labor now needs to run some ads reminding people of a certain AWB sending money to a certain dictator just before Australia took part in a certain war. ]

    One way to shut these halfwits up would be for JG to announce that as soon as Labor returns to Government, she intends to reconvene the AWB Inquiry with widened terms of reference to call on the likes of Downer, Truss, Howard & their Staffers for a “Full” inquiry into the matter.

    It would not only shut the mongrels up, but would put the fear of god into them at the same time. I think that was Kevvie’s biggest mistake after not clearing out the Howard sympathisers in the PS and the ABC.

    Labor wouldn’t have had anywhere near the level of grief for the past three years if they had of done what Howard did straight after getting in in 1996. But not go as far as Howard did which was a total over-reach which cost him dearly in lost corporate knowledge & experience in the PS.

  33. BK just remember there would be you and a dog watching that show. The average ‘couldn’t careless about politics’ person wouldn’t have a bar of it.

  34. fredn
    […recently lost funding under the federal government’s Australian Research Council grants.]
    This suggests it is an ARC decision, not a political programme-specific decision??

    Any number of worthy ARC centres lose their funding from time to time (more a statement as to spending priorities generally, over many decades, by the Australian community)

  35. It might be worthwhile to use Downer’s denial as a lever to criticise the media over their trivialization and, indeed, now it seems outright corruption of the campaign.

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