Harvest time

The group voting tickets for the Senate, which determine how preferences will be allocated for the overwhelming majority of voters who vote above-the-line, can now be viewed on the Australian Electoral Commission site. Below I have condensed most of the tickets to their essentials, reducing it to ordering of parties that can conceivably win and major party candidates whose election is in doubt (i.e. the third ones on the list). If you’re planning on voting above-the-line for a minor party other than the Greens, this should help you determined where your vote will end up.

First, some points of immediately obvious significance should be noted. The Greens are fuming that the Democrats have put them behind Labor in South Australia, and especially behind the Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory, contrary to what they believed was a deal – or at least a very strong understanding – that preferences would be exchanged across the country. Certainly the Greens have come good on their half of such a deal, outside of putting them behind Cheryl Kernot in New South Wales. This seriously damages their chances of unseating Liberal Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT.

Secondly, Antony Green’s first impression is that the best chance of a minor party boilover on the back of preference harvesting lies with the Climate Sceptics and Family First in South Australia. Thirdly, while I haven’t crunched the numbers yet, it looks superficially to me like the same could be said of the Christian Democratic Party in Western Australia – whose preference-harvesting abilities are spoken of in hushed terms by informed observers, despite their consistent failure to get over the line. Finally, also in Western Australia, it turns out the ballyhooed WA First party were not able to register in time for the election, and will appear as a generic group on the ballot paper.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Communist: Greens; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Coalition.

Citizens Electoral Council: Liberal Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Cheryl Kernot; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Democrats: Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; half-Labor/half-Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; half-Labor/half-Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Climate Sceptics: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; Australian Sex Party; Coalition; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Labor Greens.

Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; Family First; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Greens.

Democratic Labor Party: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democraticc Party; Shooters and Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Greens; Cheryl Kernot; Labor; Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party.

David Barker: Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Shooters and Fishers; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Non-Custodial Parents Party: Liberal Democrats; half Family First, half Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Fishers and Shooters; Democratic Labor Party; Coalition; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Family First: Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Shooters and Fishers; Family First; Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; One Nation.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party.

Christian Democrats: Coalition; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Labor; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Coalition: Christian Democratic Party; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Greens; Australian Sex Party; One Nation.

One Nation: Democratic Labor Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; Family First; Coalition; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Labor; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Greens: Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor: Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Cheryl Kernot: half Greens, half Democrats; Australian Sex Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Australian Sex Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Cheryl Kernot; Christian Democratic Party; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

VICTORIA

Joseph Toscano: Greens; Stephen Mayne; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; One Nation.

Family First: Christian Democratic Party; Democratic Labor Party; Stephen Mayne; One Nation; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Family First; One Nation.

Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Stephen Mayne; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.

Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Stephen Mayne; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.

Shooters and Fishers: Coalition; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Labor; One Nation; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party; Family First.

Climate Sceptics: Family First; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Stephen Mayne, Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

One Nation: Democratic Labor Party; Stephen Mayne, Family First; Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Australian Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Coalition: Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Christian Democratic Party: Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Coalition; Stephen Mayne; One Nation; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Coalition; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Carers Alliance: Stephen Mayne; Democrats; half Labor, half Liberal; Greens; half Family First, Australian Sex Party, One Nation; half Australian Sex Party, One Nation, Family First.

Liberal Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Stephen Mayne; Democrats; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens.

Stephen Mayne: half Family First, half Greens; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; half Coalition, half Labor; One Nation.

QUEENSLAND

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Australian Sex Party.

Family First: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Coalition; Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Greens.

One Nation: Christian Democrats; Coalition; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Labor; Greens.

Democrats: Greens; Australian Sex Party; half Coalition, half Labor; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Australia First: One Nation; Family First; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Climate Sceptics: Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Citizens Electoral Council: Coalition; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Coalition: Family First; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; One Natin; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Coalition; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Democrats; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens;

Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Democrats;
Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Christian Democrats: Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Labor; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; WA First; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Nationals: Family First; WA First; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Liberal: Christian Democrats; National; WA First; Family First; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; WA First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; National; Labor; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; WA First; National; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Nationals; Family First; Christian Democrats; WA First.

Climate Sceptics: WA First; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation; WA First; National; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; WA First; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Family First: Nationals; Christian Democrats; WA First; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

One Nation: Christian Democrats; National; Family First; WA First; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Greens; Labor.

Democrats: WA First; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Labor: Greens; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; WA First; Democrats; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: WA First; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens.

Christian Democrats: WA First; Family First; Nationals; Labor; Liberal; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Family First; One Nation; Labor; WA First; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Greens.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, Liberal, Nationals, half Liberal, Nationals, Labor; Greens; Family First; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; One Nation; WA First.

WA First: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Nationals; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Climate Sceptics: One Nation; Family First; Christian Democratic; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Family First; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; One Nation.

Liberal: Family First; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

One Nation: Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Democratic Labor Party Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.

Christian Democrats: Family First; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Liberal; half Greens, One Nation, Christian Democrats, half One Nation, Christian Democrats, Greens; Australian Sex Party; Family First.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First.

Shooters and Fishers: Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; One Nation; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens; Liberal; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Family First; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First.

Family First: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.

TASMANIA

Democrats: Greens; Labor; Liberal; Family First.

Liberal: Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Family First; Liberal.

Shooters and Fishers: Liberal; Family First; Labor; Democrats;
Greens.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal; Family First.

Democratic Labor Party: Liberal; Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Family First: Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

Climate Sceptics: Family First; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Liberal.

Democrats: Liberal; Greens; Labor.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal.

Liberal: Democrats; Greens; Labor.

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Australian Sex Party: Greens; Labor; Country Liberal.

Shooters and Fishers: Country Liberals; Labor; Greens.

Country Liberals: Greens; Labor.

Citizens Electoral Council: Country Liberals; Labor; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Country Liberals.

Greens: Labor; Country Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

101 comments on “Harvest time”

  1. 95

    The Greens would have won a seat of the Coalition if there had been only about 1% more vote ending up with the Green (mainly starting out as Green or ALP) and there has been a swing against the Coalition in Victoria in the polls and the Greens have gone up in the polls and would probably win without this alleged distortion.

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