The group voting tickets for the Senate, which determine how preferences will be allocated for the overwhelming majority of voters who vote above-the-line, can now be viewed on the Australian Electoral Commission site. Below I have condensed most of the tickets to their essentials, reducing it to ordering of parties that can conceivably win and major party candidates whose election is in doubt (i.e. the third ones on the list). If you’re planning on voting above-the-line for a minor party other than the Greens, this should help you determined where your vote will end up.
First, some points of immediately obvious significance should be noted. The Greens are fuming that the Democrats have put them behind Labor in South Australia, and especially behind the Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory, contrary to what they believed was a deal – or at least a very strong understanding – that preferences would be exchanged across the country. Certainly the Greens have come good on their half of such a deal, outside of putting them behind Cheryl Kernot in New South Wales. This seriously damages their chances of unseating Liberal Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT.
Secondly, Antony Green’s first impression is that the best chance of a minor party boilover on the back of preference harvesting lies with the Climate Sceptics and Family First in South Australia. Thirdly, while I haven’t crunched the numbers yet, it looks superficially to me like the same could be said of the Christian Democratic Party in Western Australia – whose preference-harvesting abilities are spoken of in hushed terms by informed observers, despite their consistent failure to get over the line. Finally, also in Western Australia, it turns out the ballyhooed WA First party were not able to register in time for the election, and will appear as a generic group on the ballot paper.
NEW SOUTH WALES
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.
Communist: Greens; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Coalition.
Citizens Electoral Council: Liberal Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Cheryl Kernot; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.
Democrats: Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; half-Labor/half-Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; half-Labor/half-Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.
Climate Sceptics: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; Australian Sex Party; Coalition; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Labor Greens.
Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; Family First; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Greens.
Democratic Labor Party: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democraticc Party; Shooters and Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Australian Sex Party: Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Greens; Cheryl Kernot; Labor; Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party.
David Barker: Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Shooters and Fishers; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Non-Custodial Parents Party: Liberal Democrats; half Family First, half Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Fishers and Shooters; Democratic Labor Party; Coalition; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.
Family First: Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Labor; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Labor: Greens; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Shooters and Fishers; Family First; Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; One Nation.
Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Cheryl Kernot; Australian Sex Party.
Christian Democrats: Coalition; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Labor; Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Coalition: Christian Democratic Party; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Greens; Australian Sex Party; One Nation.
One Nation: Democratic Labor Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; Family First; Coalition; Democrats; Cheryl Kernot; Labor; Greens; Australian Sex Party.
Greens: Cheryl Kernot; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor: Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.
Cheryl Kernot: half Greens, half Democrats; Australian Sex Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.
Liberal Democrats: Democrats; Democratic Labor Party; Australian Sex Party; Family First; Shooters and Fishers; One Nation; Cheryl Kernot; Christian Democratic Party; Labor; Coalition; Greens.
VICTORIA
Joseph Toscano: Greens; Stephen Mayne; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; One Nation.
Family First: Christian Democratic Party; Democratic Labor Party; Stephen Mayne; One Nation; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Family First; One Nation.
Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democratic Party; One Nation; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Stephen Mayne; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.
Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Stephen Mayne; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democratic Party; One Nation.
Shooters and Fishers: Coalition; Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Labor; One Nation; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Coalition; Shooters and Fishers; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party; Family First.
Climate Sceptics: Family First; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Christian Democratic Party; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Stephen Mayne; Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.
Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Stephen Mayne, Coalition; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.
One Nation: Democratic Labor Party; Stephen Mayne, Family First; Democrats; Christian Democratic Party; Australian Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.
Coalition: Family First; Democratic Labor Party; Christian Democratic Party; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Greens; Labor; One Nation.
Christian Democratic Party: Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Coalition; Stephen Mayne; One Nation; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.
Labor: Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Stephen Mayne; Democratic Labor Party; Family First; Coalition; Christian Democrats; One Nation.
Carers Alliance: Stephen Mayne; Democrats; half Labor, half Liberal; Greens; half Family First, Australian Sex Party, One Nation; half Australian Sex Party, One Nation, Family First.
Liberal Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Democratic Labor Party; One Nation; Stephen Mayne; Democrats; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens.
Stephen Mayne: half Family First, half Greens; Democratic Labor Party; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; half Coalition, half Labor; One Nation.
QUEENSLAND
Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Australian Sex Party.
Family First: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Coalition; Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Greens.
One Nation: Christian Democrats; Coalition; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Labor; Greens.
Democrats: Greens; Australian Sex Party; half Coalition, half Labor; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.
Australia First: One Nation; Family First; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.
Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.
Climate Sceptics: Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Citizens Electoral Council: Coalition; Family First; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Greens.
Coalition: Family First; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; One Natin; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens.
Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.
Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Coalition; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.
Labor: Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation.
Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Democrats; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens;
Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Democrats;
Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Christian Democrats: Family First; Coalition; One Nation; Labor; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Greens: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; WA First; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.
Nationals: Family First; WA First; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Australian Sex Party.
Liberal: Christian Democrats; National; WA First; Family First; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.
Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; WA First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; National; Labor; Greens.
Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; WA First; National; Family First; Christian Democrats.
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Nationals; Family First; Christian Democrats; WA First.
Climate Sceptics: WA First; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Democratic Labor Party: Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation; WA First; National; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; WA First; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.
Family First: Nationals; Christian Democrats; WA First; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
One Nation: Christian Democrats; National; Family First; WA First; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Greens; Labor.
Democrats: WA First; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Family First; Christian Democrats.
Labor: Greens; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; WA First; Democrats; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation.
Liberal Democrats: WA First; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Christian Democrats; Greens.
Christian Democrats: WA First; Family First; Nationals; Labor; Liberal; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.
Shooters and Fishers: Christian Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Family First; One Nation; Labor; WA First; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Greens.
Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, Liberal, Nationals, half Liberal, Nationals, Labor; Greens; Family First; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; One Nation; WA First.
WA First: Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Christian Democrats; Nationals; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens; One Nation.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Climate Sceptics: One Nation; Family First; Christian Democratic; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; Family First; Democrats; Christian Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; One Nation.
Liberal: Family First; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens; Labor; One Nation.
One Nation: Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Democratic Labor Party Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Australian Sex Party; Greens.
Christian Democrats: Family First; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Democrats; Australian Sex Party.
Carers Alliance: Democrats; half Labor, half Liberal; half Greens, One Nation, Christian Democrats, half One Nation, Christian Democrats, Greens; Australian Sex Party; Family First.
Greens: Democrats; Labor; Australian Sex Party; Liberal; Christian Democrats; One Nation; Family First.
Shooters and Fishers: Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal; One Nation; Australian Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.
Democrats: Australian Sex Party; Labor; Greens; Liberal; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Liberal; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.
Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Family First; Australian Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.
Australian Sex Party: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First.
Family First: Christian Democrats; One Nation; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Australian Sex Party.
TASMANIA
Democrats: Greens; Labor; Liberal; Family First.
Liberal: Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; Democrats; Family First; Liberal.
Shooters and Fishers: Liberal; Family First; Labor; Democrats;
Greens.
Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal; Family First.
Democratic Labor Party: Liberal; Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens.
Family First: Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.
Climate Sceptics: Family First; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
Labor: Greens; Democrats; Liberal.
Democrats: Liberal; Greens; Labor.
Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal.
Liberal: Democrats; Greens; Labor.
NORTHERN TERRITORY
Australian Sex Party: Greens; Labor; Country Liberal.
Shooters and Fishers: Country Liberals; Labor; Greens.
Country Liberals: Greens; Labor.
Citizens Electoral Council: Country Liberals; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; Country Liberals.
Greens: Labor; Country Liberals.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the Senate preference ticket, and Senate matters generally.
Anyone know how I can find out what the Building Australia Party stand for? I’m voting BTL so I’d like to know where to put them.
And whats with the Socialist Equality giving first pref to Greens, ALP and Coalition in Vic? Doesn’t sound very Socialist to me. Although I guess it is equal.
Nice to see FF low on Labor’s preferences in Victoria. Arrivederci, Fielding!
[Anyone know how I can find out what the Building Australia Party stand for? I’m voting BTL so I’d like to know where to put them.]
I found this link. Hope it helps.
http://blads.blogspot.com/2010/07/building-australia-party.html
Pebbles, on the other hand he’s second on the Coalition ticket.
Very disappointing news about the Democrats in the ACT but the Greens were always only an outside chance. The upside is you can’t imagine the Democrats will get a high vote anyhow.
[Pebbles, on the other hand he’s second on the Coalition ticket.]
Hmm, good point. What are the chances of the Coalition’s vote being low enough that they fail to get a third Senator, and Fielding gets elected?
“Harvest Time” – that’s very good! 😛
Cheryle Kernot is not popular with either of the majors:
ALP bottom 3
[Cheryl Kernot; Coalition; One Nation]
Coalition bottom 4
[Cheryl Kernot; Greens; Australian Sex Party; One Nation]
Climate Sceptics party almost always preferencing religious based parties first.
Says it all really about AGW denialism.
The LDP are preferencing the protectionist One Nation and socially conservative FF ahead of the major parties?
[The LDP are preferencing the protectionist One Nation and socially conservative FF ahead of the major parties?]
The smaller parties often put ideology aside and do first preferences to eachother, as to try and resist the 2 party juggernaught.
The Democrats owe the Greens nothing. And they’re not going to poll anything significant anyway. That said, it’s pretty spiteful putting them after the Libs in the ACT – a Green win in the ACT would have an immediate effect! Wish they’d done it in NSW instead – the Senate won’t be improved by adding Lee Rhiannon to it, but arguably it would be by removing Gary Humphries.
I”m going below the line to vote for Cheryl Kernot, then the Sex Party. Neither have any chance.
I love it! Although the sex party are preferencing labor high they made sure that stephen conroy is numbered the lowest…that filter…good work guys
Labor will probably poll 3 quotas above the line in Victoria, so even if Conroy weren’t in the #2 slot he’d be fine. Nice gesture though.
Edward Natasha SD will be pulling her hair out.
What happened to ALP deal with the shooters- it is no more I suppose
According to the Australian Democrats twitter account, there was no deal between them and the Greens:
I very much doubt she is doing anything of the sort, though I bet she wishes her former party would wind up quietly, something that a whole slew of their saner ex-members also believe.
Richard di Natale looks good to get the sixth seat in Victoria. SA looks very interesting, 2/2/1/1 again probably not.
Labor: Greens; Liberal Democrats –> interesting.
Also, how long until Antony’s Senate calculator is up?
The stable Population Party independent candidates have been allocated a ballot paper placement in NSW. They are:
Senate Group T : Bourke / O’Connor.
THis is the party that appeared set for registration by the Australian Electoral Commission, but Julia Gillard called the election 1 week before they were due to be formally recognised by the AEC (or so they claim, anyway). They are standing as indies as a result
However the Greens say there was a deal:
Twitter: pollymorgan
Twitter: ebony_bennett
William (or others), a dumb question: what does it mean when it says “half Party X, half Party Y” ?
Antony on Twitter: “Preference deals make it very hard for the Greens to win last Senate seat in NSW.”
Parties can lodge multiple voting tickets with candidates in different orders, effectively allowing their vote (or excess) to be split between two candidates equally in the event they are not elected.
Dyno, you can lodge more than one ticket, to make it so half your votes behave one way and half behave the other way. In this most common example, this allows you to have Liberal ahead of Labor on one ticket and vice-versa on the other so that neither party is favoured.
[William (or others), a dumb question: what does it mean when it says “half Party X, half Party Y” ?]
It means that when it comes to distributing from the above the line votes for that party, half go one direction, half go the other.
ie. if Candidate Z gets 200 primary votes, and his preferences go half to X and half to Y, then that means, if eliminated, 100 votes go toward X’s total and 100 go to Y’s
Thanks, edward and William. I hadn’t previously realised that.
And thanks TSOP as well.
Does Antony mention who might win the final seat instead of The Greens? I’m assuming Fiona Nash.
Or Steve Hutchins, depending on your perspective.
So.. Antony reckons it will be tough for the Greens to win in NSW and he also raises the possibility of the CDP winning in WA (ie. loss of a Green to CDP).
ltep, the final NSW seat will be either Labor or the Greens (perhaps not anymore). The Coalition will do well enough in NSW go easily get 3 seats plus they have a strong cushion of a high right wing minor party vote. The Greens were always going to be winning a seat off Labor, not the Coalition.
William, please note that the DLP are coming to me ahead of the majors, not as you’ve depicted above. Could you please correct.
Cheers Stephen Mayne
PS. I’m in shock to be getting very generous One Nation prefs after putting them last.
Looks like I will be voting below the line again.
#9 Confessions
.
That is the party I am preferencing last in both the house (Hasluck) and the senate.
[Labor will probably poll 3 quotas above the line in Victoria, so even if Conroy weren’t in the #2 slot he’d be fine. Nice gesture though.]
I doubt it. The Senate works on primaries, not 2PP. I highly suspect Vic (like most states) will return 3 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Green.
Hmm.. what happened the humanist party and the pirate party?
Indeed. But Victoria will probably be the ALP’s high point, so if any state is going to give them 3 Senators, Vic is it. I tend to think the ALP will outperform expectations on the primary vote.
My point about Conroy stands, which is a shame.
Has anyone considered the effect of this:
http://filter-conroy.org/
That would put Conroy last. Question is, how many of these special voting patterns would it take to upset the cart over Conroy?
Stephen, the reason I have you behind the majors for the DLP is that I’m only interested in your position in relation to the third major party candidates. It’s true that the DLP have you higher than the top two Labor and Coalition candidates, but this is immaterial as those candidates will already have been elected by the time DLP preferences are distributed.
[Question is, how many of these special voting patterns would it take to upset the cart over Conroy?]
A lot more than there will be.
Shame about the Greens in NSW but I guess we’ll have to see what happens
Vote 1 Australian Sex Party 🙂
William I actually would like a sensible numerical answer to that.
Mick S @35
Me too – with the CEC second-last for sending me spam.
I’ve got to say that I haven’t seen a single Climate Sceptics corflute or anything in SA. FF are everywhere (well Bob Day is).
16
What do the Deadmocrats* have against Lin Hatfield Dodds?
They must really like Fielding as they were instrumental in his election as well.
* This is a statement of political reality not a wish or threat.
To become mathematically possible, the number of above-the-line Labor votes would need to fall below two quotas, or 28.6%. In 2007, 41.3% of all votes were above-the-line Labor votes, with a further 0.4% being below-the-line votes where the first preferences went to a Labor candidate. So if the Labor vote were stable, the below-the-line proportion of the Labor vote would need to increase from about 1% to about 30% – nearly 400,000. However, that comes down as the Labor vote falls (or goes up as it rises).
The Democrats say they hope Gary Humphries might be a moderating influence on an Abbott government.
Tom: here’s the press release
http://darrenchurchill.wordpress.com/2010/07/30/media-release-31st-july-2010-democrats-bold-move-on-preferences/
Pretty unconvincing. But you are right, they are dead dead dead and won’t poll above 1% anywhere. But in SA that could well be significant.
The ACT Democrats decision to preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens and the ALP is unjustifiable. It’s not only against the party’s principles and objectives, it’s also strategically and tactically stupid. The ACT Democrats cannot win, and would have gotten Liberal preferences anyway. The Liberals have put them behind Family First everywhere else, so they have gained nothing by preferencing them.