Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby

Adelaide’s Sunday Mail newspaper (a News Limited stablemate of The Advertiser) has published a poll of 564 voters conducted on Wednesday in the Adelaide electorate of Boothby, which shows the Liberals with a 52-48 two-party lead. This represents a 1 per cent swing to Labor, but it comes off a disastrous local campaign in 2007 when the swing to Labor was limited to 2.4 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent statewide. On the primary vote, Liberal member Andrew Southcott is on 46 per cent against 35 per cent for Labor candidate Annabel Digance, 10 per cent for the Greens and 3 per cent for Family First. Further attitudinal questions are better for Labor than might be expected: the Liberals’ lead as best party to manage the economy is 48 per cent to 43 per cent, Labor leads on the River Murray 46 per cent to 29 per cent, and 45 per cent of respondents believed Gillard cares more about families compared with 36 per cent for Tony Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. The previous Advertiser poll a week ago had Labor with a staggering 67-33 lead in Kingston, where their margin is 4.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

981 comments on “Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby”

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  1. [and that the next polls won’t be as bad]

    I’m expecting tonight’s Newspoll to show Libs ahead but I expect Labor to improve from here on.

  2. [Question: has anyone seen Labor ads on TV over the past week or so?
    All I’m seeing are Liberal attacks ads.]

    I’ve seen a few Labor ads. But I have also seen various union ads (Nurses most notable, but also ACTU).

    I am hoping that Labor had kept some ammo for the last couple of weeks, while the Libs have used up much of their kitty already. The electorate will engage in the last week or two and who wins those has most leverage, methinks.

  3. [The fastest drop in Labor primary vote and PM approval ratings in history?]

    No, that was Kevin Rudd. Fail.

    Arbib, as No 1 candidate on the Labor ticket in NSW in 2007, polled more votes than any other candidate at any election in Australian history.

  4. Who thinks the “Kevin OOO7” stuff from News Ltd will backfire on the Liberals, because they will have been seen to be attacking a man on his sick bed?
    Not that I imagine Kevin is at death’s door, but the symbolism doesn’t look good.

  5. If he Libs are still ahead leading into the last week I expect the mining companies to give them millions for advertising to help them across the line. After all there are billions at stake.

  6. Psephos@939

    For example: What psephological fact is Mark Arbib notable for?

    What Diogenes said, plus the biggest loss of capable ministers of principle before an election ever seen in these waters?

  7. [LABOR is losing ground as the election campaign rolls on and Coalition support is rising.

    Since the beginning of the election campaign Labor’s two-party preferred advantage has gone from 10 percentage points to zero. The ALP and the Coalition are now 50-50 in the last Newspoll survey taken between Friday and Sunday evening.

    The Gillard Government would now desperately depend on Greens’ preferences to hold power.

    The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote, based on calculations of preference flows at the 2007 election, has risen five points since the 2010 election began two weeks ago as Julia Gillard has been distracted by issues surrounding Kevin Rudd’s demise as leader.

    The Prime Minister has decided to exploit her personal advantage over Tony Abbott by declaring the election is about a choice between the two.

    Ms Gillard has maintained her clear lead over the Leader of the Opposition as preferred prime minister on an unchanged 50 per cent compared to the previous weekend over Mr Abbott’s steady 35 per cent.

    On the question of preferred prime minister Ms Gillard’s support has dropped seven points in the first two weeks of the campaign and Mr Abbott’s has risen eight points during the same time.]

  8. I’m seeing the ads from the Nurses Federation and the ACTU on Sydney TV, but nothing from Labor/Gillard, which slightly puzzles me.
    In comparison, the latest Liberal negative ad was all over TV tonight, showing houses burning down and a train crash.
    I won’t be shocked if we next see an ad featuring the mother of one of those unfortunate guys who died installing pink bats.
    Abbott is going negative, with the help of the media.

  9. True Story – from the mouths of babes, etc

    Tonight my 4 year old said to me, ‘Dad, I can say “Tony Abbott”’ – I nearly choked! Before I could get the antibacterial soap to wash his mouth out he asked, ‘What does he do?’ ‘He’s a politician’ I answered. ‘Why’?, he asked in reply. I was speechless. Why is Abbott a politician and why oh why is he getting any traction. ‘Where did you learn that name’ I asked the boy. ‘Oh, I just made it up he said’. I left it at that…

    True Story.

  10. News Ltd are not interested in attacking Rudd per se,

    I would of thought the ongoing destruction of Rudd is Chris Mitchells reason for getting out of bed in the morning. The OO have two objectives destroy Rudd and Labor.

  11. [Psephos: what precisely has Mark Arbib achieved so far in his ministerial career?]

    About as much as most junior ministers achieve in their first year in office, I expect.

  12. [So is there any significance of higher preferred prime minister? In the Newspoll poll?]

    It is significant if Dennis Shanahan says it is 🙂

  13. So it is 50/50. It could be said, then, that Labor is trending up after the Advertiser and the Nielsen.

    That would be Shamahan’s twist, were he a progressive rather than a conservative.

  14. [I would of thought the ongoing destruction of Rudd is Chris Mitchells reason for getting out of bed in the morning. The OO have two objectives destroy Rudd and Labor.]

    No, Rudd is just an instrument for them to attack Labor. If he was still PM they’d be condemning the “Labor powerbrokers” for propping up an obviously incompetent and failed PM and not replacing him with the fantastically wonderful Gillard, etc etc etc – just as they said about British Labour when they failed to dump Brown before the election. They don’t care which way round the narrative goes so long as it’s anti-Labor.

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