Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.

UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,047 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. TSOP

    cheers

    John was a manuka AFL lad thru and thru

    his da once was liberal

    howie turned him to the light

    No grandson would ever be consigned to indentured slavery

    jezza was his mentor way back then, tho brownie chose suburbia to stardom

    πŸ™

  2. I am gonna work even harder to honour your friend’s memory. Even though I am in SA, there is still a bit of work to be done to ensure Sturt and Boothby fall to Labor.

    I am going to be out on election night, but my desire to catch a reasonable train home means I’ll probably be home before midnight. Anybody else, gonna at least give a howdy on PB before passing out on election night?

  3. JV,

    Let me just say this – putting aside the role of the journalists in all this, whoever is leaking this stuff to Oakes in the middle of a campaign (with Abbott a chance for PM) should be, well…, they should simply be taken out the back and shot.

    Goodnight all.

  4. [Anybody else, gonna at least give a howdy on PB before passing out on election night?]

    I’ll be here TSOP, either very happy or in a furious rage.

    [And yes laurie does goats

    prove me wrong you fat corpulent shite]

    πŸ˜†

  5. TSOP

    john weatherley was a nobody

    he worked for parks and gardens ACT and payed his taxes

    Once, along time ago we thought we could change the world

    when john and then evil john came soem of us lost our way

    My missus getting fired for nothing short of economic gain proved tgo me that the fibs aint about us BUT only themselves

    brownies passing has reinforced what i am all about

    not personal advancement

    BUT THAT LIGHT ON THE HILL

  6. [john weatherley was a nobody]

    Nobody is nobody.

    Napoleon was a nobody, but our history books are full of references to him

    (I know your late friend didn’t have the impact of Napoleon, but still, every person who fights the good fight is a part of its victory.)

    People like Abbott, they go down in history as villains. People like you and me (and others) will be seen in a more positive light.

    Your late friend is gonna make me work harder to make sure the baddies don’t win this story!

  7. [I miss Frank here.]

    I know he’s under moderation, which I assume means William needs to approve his posts before they appear, but Franks late night musings are always great. Especially when he is posting people’s tweets and the OO’s headlines for the next morning…

  8. TSOP

    ta

    John was that sort of mate that defines you

    tho if truth be told he was an aerial ping pong to my game played in heaven bloke

    a true believer nevertheless

  9. also

    the imputation that cos L oakes is a frequent and valued guest of a few goateries doesnt mean that he has deep and meaningful interchanges with goats

    I mean the suggestion is just so wrong

    How could anyone dare to suggest he enjoys goats or their special company?

  10. [and anyone who links the term β€œtown bike” and abbott is merely aiming to bed goats ala L Oakes]

    Oh you are so bad, Gusface πŸ˜‰

    Needless to say, anybody who wants to bed Oakes must’ve gotten turned on when watching the Jabba the Hutt scenes in Return of the Jedi πŸ˜‰

  11. [At least Jabba never wore garish black sneakers with a suit on national television.]

    You’ve obviously never seen George Lucas’ super ultra special edition πŸ˜‰

  12. I hear Rudd is doing some ‘straight to video’ these days

    Let’s just say it wouldn’t pass Conroys filter…

    Mainly watersports

  13. Psephos
    Posted Saturday, July 31, 2010 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    ‘once Rudd has had a good rest, unleash him on the rest of the campaign – he’ll be now much fitter and ready to let rip on Abbot!’

    *with asperity* If Rudd was popular he’d still be PM. It was Rudd’s talent for pissing people off that created this situation in the first place. Perhaps we should let Latham loose on the marginals as well?”

    Adam , that was naive , you obvious never lived in Q’ld prob most parochal State in oz
    Kevin Rudd is Quneenslanders own nerd to Queenslanders and if anyone was going to chop off a Q’lder PM its Q’lders voters , not ‘Southerners’

    suggest you look at 2007 results , and Qld swings then delivering so many big swings and seats vs Fed ALP record in Q’lder for past 20 yrs except 1996 ,and Rudd being form Q’ld was ‘a factor’

    At minimum Julia must campaign public with Kevin in Griffith a couple of times , one as ‘a Q’ld sop’ to sooth/motavate always needed ALP troops on th ground to 21/8 , and two to undermine perseption that Kevin Rudd is source of Leaks which is giving leaks some credibility , and three to give nuanse to voters that Labor Govt is united , and is not in disunity

    (and i googled that 2nd word , and it makes no sense)

    I can hardly beleive Bruce Hawker is not saying this , and for you to it seems dismiss this is amazing

  14. [Napolean was a nobody?]

    He was at the beginning. A mere Corsican boy who joined the army. If I recall correctly, Corsica was ceded to the French only a year before Napoleon was born. History may have been different if he were born a year earlier.

  15. j/v

    I’ve said nothing for 24 hrs since your ethnic slur to Frank , and that has been enuf time for you to apologise

    Whilst Truth Hurts made some offensive GENERIC comments on PB (but perhaps education/enviro may be cause of his nt knowing) , but you got no such excuses Us Bogans dont need a Uni education to understand decency , and clearly a Uni educaton does not teach it

    Franky , if you got anyting urgent to post here time wise on this election email me

  16. Wow, they are rolling out Dolly Downer to throw a bit of shite at Kev?? OO must be getting desperate to keep the “leak” meme going.

    Surely, they could find someone who actually has some vestige of even apparent credibility? Not only given his known affiliation is he so obviously partisan, he’s the AWB, Food for Oil Corruption, Things that Batter, Fishnet Stockings man, whos only real relevance when in his portfolio was to bully small Pacific nations and East Timor??

    Post politics, he has been as far as i know one of the least sucessful UN envoy’s in the history of that organisation (Cyprus). I mean, he’s a bona fide nobody / has been failure. And, Rudd put him out of a comfy job.

    Not sure who’s less beliveable, Dolly, or Mark Latham??

  17. So “Great Big New Tax Great Big New Tax” is fine politics, but when Labor points out that Abbott has promised to cut services and initiatives, indeed boasts of it as his main policy platform and something he is morally bound to do for the good of the country, The Age sees includes this in an article titled “Labor prepares smear campaign against Abbott .”

    In a further negative onslaught, Labor is also stepping up warnings that Mr Abbott as prime minister would wield ”a great big axe” on vital services.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-prepares-smear-campaign-against-abbott-20100731-110pa.html

    Labor can go on the attack all it likes, but unless the media print it, and run with it as they have run with Abbott’s similar negative campaign, there is little hope.

  18. Gusface@1998

    I too was at the steps of Parl House on 11/11/75, I was in 3rd year at ANU. Anyway, I was as confident as anything that Gough would be returned in the election and I was devastated by the actual result (I still am). Since that day, I have never dared to predict the outcome of a federal election.

  19. OK Latham became rather a rat after his resignation as Leader. He did, however, end the over-generous parliamentary pensions and the ever-greening of drug patents in the FTA with the US, so in that regard I respect him.

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