Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.
UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.
We finally get a REAL bombshell poll – and neither Oakes nor Riley bring it to us 😉
Labor Watch out
We should not be surprised. It has been a horror week. The question is what will Labor need to do to get the momentum back?
GhostWhoVotes is our most reliable source for new polls 🙂
I tips my hat.
manunda
what for?
victoria – pull their thumbs out. They are inspiring no one at the moment. They deserve to be in this position at this stage of the campaign.
Repost from last thread:
I think we just need to start being more active and assertive. Real Julia seems to get positive responses too. We should see a bit more of that.
The “keeping our nose clean” strategy worked fine in the first week or so, because we were so far ahead it was ours to lose, but that leak really damaged Julia’s rep and our cred! (When Liberal zombies get free “The government can’t keep themselves in line, what hope do they have of running the country?” soundbites, something needs to be done.) We need to take the fight back to them.
Seriously, no chance in the world the Coalition are sitting on 45. The only thing that poll is going to damage is Neilsen’s credibility.
This was before the NBN announcement too is it not?
brisoz
yep
[manunda
what for?]
Because if Abbott gets in and ruins the country it proves how bad mean old Labor are and how much the Greens rule!!!
Pathetic partisan hacks.
You mean that which was totally un-reported
Getting the Coalition to 52 from a PV of 45 requires 7 points from others(5) and the greens(12). Seems a bit generous to the Coalition, however rounding can do that.
glory,
How many times does it need to be said. Anyone contributing here on PB has already made up their mind on who they are voting for. Therefore, the major parties will not spend time, money or effort in trying to appease your views on how to run a campaign.
Aguirre – no one is suggesting that 45 Coalition primary is realistic. But even a 48-52 rogue, on the back of a 50-50 Galaxy, means it’s sitting somewhere at 51-49 or 50-50. Not too flash 3 weeks out.
The preferences don’t even add up. If you distribute them the way everyone usually does, you come out with 50-50.
Betting markets already appear to have reacted:
LNP 3.45
ALP 1.32
The FTSE is down 33 points.
We have got GDP figures from the US to come overnight.
I have just grabbed a drink. I think I’ll have a couple!
Oh and Diogs, have you been told today?
expect a slew of polls showing close to the 48-52 meme
but its the wrong week to tweak
[Seriously, no chance in the world the Coalition are sitting on 45. The only thing that poll is going to damage is Neilsen’s credibility.]
It does smell a little too “good” to be true, but it is an entirely possible result. It just goes to show we can’t take victory for granted.
*hiho, hiho, its off to bed I go*
I reckon it’s a rogue AND it’s undervalued on preferences. 52-48 Labor.
This would be one poll Labor would be well advised to treat as real and serious.
nielsen has delivered a few overblown results recently. probably suggestive of a trend though.
[How many times does it need to be said. Anyone contributing here on PB has already made up their mind on who they are voting for. Therefore, the major parties will not spend time, money or effort in trying to appease your views on how to run a campaign.]
I understand what youre saying Growler. I’m not saying I want them to pander to ME. They need to pander to the exact people they are losing at the moment. Labor has stood back this week. They are implementing a weak, damage-control campaign. We all say “They haven’t been given a chance, the MSM are writing the narrative”. Partly true – but they’re the GOVERNMENT. Set the agenda.
[This would be one poll Labor would be well advised to treat as real and serious.]
Agreed. As I always say, campaign like you’re 10 points behind.
ag
assuming an 80/20 flow you are close
at 60/40 it is still 50.5/49.5
it makes no sense frankly… compared to the polling averages it is well outside the range of possibilities … had we seen some consistent polling that indicated a 50/50.. or 51/49 it may be described as an outlier… the electorate simply has had no reason to shift from a position of a poll average of about 53 – 47 to go 10 points the other way… seems like nonsense based on what happened this week… the electorate doesn’t shift 10 points in a week.. simply does not happen…. anyway will be a good kick in the arse for the labor machine
Get the bloody gloves off, Labor!
The silly leaks have caused serious damage no doubt. The media have played their part certainly, but if not for the leaks, Labor would have been doing quite well.
Rudd has said that he will be assisting in the campaign, once he recovers.
I daresay that will go some way to show that Rudd is part of the team and is supporting the Govt. Perhaps that is what is required to get support again.
I believe if not for this distraction, Labor would be in positive territory.
BW
[Dio
I take it you were referring to Abbott?]
No, I was referring to there being almost no difference between Rudd and Gillard. The voters seem to be saying that they think Labor is trying to put lipstick on a pig but it’s still a pig. I have said all along (as have many here) that I don’t think the change improved Labors chances of winning the election. We’ll never know though but I think the change was a mistake.
I still expect Labor to win but I think they would have won with Rudd as well without all the angst and with a stronger party.
Trouble is regardless of whether this is rouge or not it fits the current Meme of the Tories coming back and Gillard tired blah blah leak blah blah ect.
Just like the continued 55-45 polls for Labor in 07 fit the Meme of Howard being finished no matter what he did. Now these polls make someone who isnt credible (Abbott) credible.
gloryconsequence
Hit the nail on the head there.
Time for a drink, methinks.
(No, I’m not bothered by this poll, I just figured now is as good a time as any 🙂 )
William, do you have to use the term bombshell? Its sooo MSM
[William, do you have to use the term bombshell? Its sooo MSM]
He should also mention Labor are in “damage control” 🙂
There is still 20 odd days to go folks.
Would there be another couple of weeks polls left to go ?
Diogs,
Tell us about you experiences putting lipstick on a pig and why you would want to do it in the first place.
We’ve got all night to indulge your fantasies.
Oh I think they will.
A cfouple things in their favuor. The Rudd story has done it’s dash – he’s in hosptial and has said he’ll campaign aroudn QLD etc. So the disunity meme seems over.
Time to go positive – and I mean POSITIVE on the eoconomy.
Interest Rates will not rise this week. They need to seel this as big as they can. They need adverts showing how crap things are in the US and UK and Europe – it aint hard a few graphs showing unemployment going up.
They need adverts showing the BER with lots of smiling faces.
The need adverts about the NBN.
And Julia needs to damn well live in Westfields.
They need some big economic policy. Hell have a flick through the Henry Review and pick something big and a bit bold – but squarely aimed at voters – hell even give the flat tax idea Peter Martin has been plugging a go.
The ALP better get it’s act together.
How many football teams lose trying to protect their lead?
Small target low keyed campaigning might work with an incumbent, but Gillard is not considered the incumbent. She has to campaign vigorously and positively to show why she is the better candidate and not rely on Rudd’s government or Abbott’s uselessness. How do they think Rudd made a mess of Howard?
[William, do you have to use the term bombshell? Its sooo MSM]
You’d be perfectly thrilled with it if I used it in the context of a good poll for Labor.
[William, do you have to use the term bombshell? Its sooo MSM
He should also mention Labor are in “damage control” ]
Perhaps William is considering following Mumble to the Australian ( think it may be wise to add a :wink:)
Grog.
I would agree with most of what you say, but unless and until Rudd does show he is supporting the party with actions, will the media let it go?
scarps
heresy!
Nielsen will have 3 maybe 4 more polls yet.
Those prefs look right to me.
Greens 12% distribute at 65%-35% from the polls so far. 50-50 on the others makes it 52-48 or near enough.
Personally, I would like to see what it says officially in a half an hour or so before slashing my wrists just yet.
Average polls were always going to happen this week; still take some comfort from the Morgan. They are bouncing around way too much to take too much credence on anything else rather than internal polling. I don’t get the impression publicly that labor is panicking just yet. I refuse to think we are going to have a worse week than this one; something that was not Julia’s fault.
Three weeks still enough to turn around. However, I would be doing another debate with Abbott, so that Julia really takes him on.
Victoria
I said it before and I’ll say it again, if/when the source of the leak is found then the whole b***** library should be thrown at him/her/them!
A toxic MSM hasn’t helped but Labor does now need to take off the gloves as BK said and call them for the lying hyenas that they are. Sitting back and hoping it will fall into your lap will not do it.
OK it’s one poll (and doesn’t seem to have been confirmed yet) and we still have a few weeks to go but my breathing mantra doesn’t seem to be helping at the moment. Another Xanax I think!
I’m off to bed to read- there’s no way known I’m going anywhere near the OO tomorrow morning!
[Small target low keyed campaigning might work with an incumbent, but Gillard is not considered the incumbent. She has to campaign vigorously and positively to show why she is the better candidate and not rely on Rudd’s government or Abbott’s uselessness. How do they think Rudd made a mess of Howard?]
Hey TP, the therapy worked! A reasonable post 🙂
Channel 9 tonight in Sydney suggested it was over. He has said he will, no reason why he wouldn’t now.