Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby

Adelaide’s Sunday Mail newspaper (a News Limited stablemate of The Advertiser) has published a poll of 564 voters conducted on Wednesday in the Adelaide electorate of Boothby, which shows the Liberals with a 52-48 two-party lead. This represents a 1 per cent swing to Labor, but it comes off a disastrous local campaign in 2007 when the swing to Labor was limited to 2.4 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent statewide. On the primary vote, Liberal member Andrew Southcott is on 46 per cent against 35 per cent for Labor candidate Annabel Digance, 10 per cent for the Greens and 3 per cent for Family First. Further attitudinal questions are better for Labor than might be expected: the Liberals’ lead as best party to manage the economy is 48 per cent to 43 per cent, Labor leads on the River Murray 46 per cent to 29 per cent, and 45 per cent of respondents believed Gillard cares more about families compared with 36 per cent for Tony Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. The previous Advertiser poll a week ago had Labor with a staggering 67-33 lead in Kingston, where their margin is 4.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

981 comments on “Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby”

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  1. Only two days ago I saw a pair displaying in a dead tree, arching their sulfur crests, hold their wings out, strutting their stuff, and getting ready for the next breeding season. Oh! and singing melodiously.

    Must have been another species, the Blue Nosed Sulphur Tipped cockatoo, perhaps? They have been known to warble when they are sick, or have eaten too much.

    Your regulation Cocky just screeches. Usually right in my ear when they raid our back deck for a meal (of the deck).

  2. [Guys — not funny — my puppy and constant companion of 11 years died last week so I am a little sensitive about doggie jokes right now.]

    Awww condolences, jenauthor.

    RIP jenauthor’s late doggie

  3. I know its completely off topic, but I can’t think where else I could post this: Does anyone know where a copy of the series Labor in Power could be obtained?

  5. Boerwar. I’m now going to curl up in bed to take my mind off that last recipe you mentioned by reading a good book, although the pumpkin, carrots and gravy sound ok. Fortunately my dog cannot yet read English and has a limited vocabulary anyway so he will not be upset, even though he is looking over my shoulder at what I’m writing.

    Good night to all. I hope we get a good poll later.

  6. Terrible news Jen. I have two dogs both of whom I adore and they adore me (but they worship my wife).

    To lose a companion animal is just the saddest thing.

    Many sincere condolences.

  8. Diogenes,

    Funny enough, my inlaws are here at the moment and they think that Dr Southcott is a nice fellow also.They just won’t vote for him though! 😉

    He apparently runs various senior’s health seminars etc for elderly people in Boothby and the oldies love him.

  9. Spectator
    There is practically a zero chance of an interest rate rise. I trust that campaign HQ has some suitable materials prepared for the RBA announcement.

  10. Thanks for the kind thoughts guys — actually dogs show us what we should really be like — love you no matter what and always loyal.

    We could grow as a species if we kept those traits in mind, I reckon.

  12. [Terrible news Jen. I have two dogs both of whom I adore and they adore me (but they worship my wife).]

    they must be very sensible dogs!

  13. jen
    Dogs occupy a wonderful part of our lives and it is a horrible wrench when they go.
    I lost one recently but the space has been well filled by a new little fella.
    Now, if there were a certain poodle in the Sturt electorate . . . . . .

  14. jenauthor

    I just read your post as I was about to log off. I’m very sorry. I’d be devastated if anything happened to my dog, Jimmy. Hugs to you.

  15. BB
    Their song is the only thing I hold against the cacatuidae. Some of them, such as the Palm Cockatoo, are magnificent birds. Galahs are one of the major success stories of the bird world – they were limited to the remote dry interior when Europeans arrived, and have since colonized most of Australia. And the Gang-gang, symbol of Canberra, and very attractive, the male fimbriatum with beautiful and delicate red crest feathers… I could go on and on…

  19. [Now, if there were a certain poodle in the Sturt electorate . . . . . .]

    Yes, he could be broiled as far as I am concerned. I know people said it earlier, but he is the most irritating man in the parliament (just — I’d count ‘the undertaker’ senator Abetz a close second).

    I certainly hope the ‘mail’ that he might lose is correct. The fact that my hard-earned is paying his wages for such patheticness (not sure if its a word, but it fits) is really offensive.

  22. Diogenes,

    [Not at all. Abbott still has the compulsion and will feel bad (a little at least) when he lies. ]

    I think Laurie Oakes was trying to make Tone feel a bit bad a few times this morning. 😉

    I expect George Pell was watching and giving Tone 3rd party dispensation during the interview.

    All for the good cause you know! 😉

  23. [I know its completely off topic, but I can’t think where else I could post this: Does anyone know where a copy of the series Labor in Power could be obtained?]

    They would have it at any big university library, if that helps.

  26. One thing that should be noted about dogs is their excellent skills at cards. Regularly they meet up for a long night of serious, high stakes poker. Many a poor dog has lost everything at these games!

    They also enjoy chasing their tails and barking at floating leaves…

  28. Night all.

    More of Dawkins’ “The Greatest Show on Earth” to digest.
    Let’s hope I wake up to a reasonable NewsPoll result.

  29. Jon@921

    We should crap in the backyard and smell each others bums?

    It’s a lost art isn’t it, these days? I understand that’s actually similar to what you have to demonstrate in order to get into the Arbib/Bitar leadership clique in the ALP, apart from having to unlearn breathing through your nose.

  30. [Psephos
    v. interesting. You must have a powerful set of dictionaries.]

    Yes I do, but I’ve also been cursed with an extremely retentive memory for trivia of that type. It tends to crowd out more useful information, like where my keys are.

  31. They would have it at any big university library, if that helps.

    Or even small ones. I borrowed it from the CSU library in Bathurst last year some time.

  32. [I understand that’s actually similar to what you have to demonstrate in order to get into the Arbib/Bitar leadership clique in the ALP, apart from having to unlearn breathing through your nose.]

    You’re just jealous that you can’t get into anyone’s leadership clique.

  33. [Yes I do, but I’ve also been cursed with an extremely retentive memory for trivia of that type. It tends to crowd out more useful information, like where my keys are.]

    You’re not Pat Malone in that Pseph. At least it tells me I haven’t got Alzheimers when I can still dazzle my kids with the most obscure trivia. What I went to the fridge for often escapes me though.

  36. Jen: commisserations to you!
    I remember when our much loved family cat had to be put to sleep some years ago – very traumatic for all of us.
    You treat animals with kindness, just as you’d like to be treated.

  37. jenauthor,

    [ We should crap in the backyard and smell each others bums?

    Thanks! Just wore my tea!!!! ]

    This poor Corella didn’t know what the blazes was going on as I nearly fell off the chair I was laughing so much.

    He got such a fright he left a souvenir from the event, right down my back.

  41. [Rates will not be going up. regardless of inflation the retail sector is catctus. get the ads on now.]

    Abbot would infer that Labor have a puppet in the RBA if they were to act as though they presume the rate won’t change. I expect the ads to start running Tuesday night.

  43. Question: has anyone seen Labor ads on TV over the past week or so?
    All I’m seeing are Liberal attacks ads.
    What the hell are Bitar and Arbib doing?

  45. [What psephological fact is Mark Arbib notable for?]

    The fastest drop in Labor primary vote and PM approval ratings in history?

  47. Psephos@932

    You’re just jealous that you can’t get into anyone’s leadership clique.

    I don’t need a brotherhood. I can survive without the secret handshakes or the metaphorical cement boots.

    In fact, I wouldn’t mind being in the Labor leadership clique just now. It must be a barrel of laughs. I would be drummed out pretty quickly though because I’d be suggesting they cannot just sit frozen in the lights without policies, just awaitin’ and ahopin’ for better polls. They obviously won’t make a dramatic move on an ETS or anything else, unless the next polls are as bad.

    By the way, I still think Labor will win, and that the next polls won’t be as bad, but that doesn’t mean the strategy is worth tuppnece.

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