The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.
Besides which:
• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.
• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.
• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.
• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.
• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.
• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.
• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.
• UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.
(Coz actually winning them by application of courage, vision and a sense of moral purpose is too much trouble…)
rua @ 144
So, Labor is home and hosed!
Oh, oh, oh, just saw someone wearing the t-shirt ‘Keep Mining Strong’. And it is a relation. No, no, no.
If you can’t trust an ex-banker, who can you trust?
David Murry must be thinking he is going to get a new boss after the election and is trying to get in the good books before the “purge” of Public Servants and Rudd appointments.
At least Costello will be safe???
[THE Rudd government refused to back down on its proposed resource super-profits tax today despite the chairman of its $68 billion Future Fund joining calls for the tax to be changed or scrapped.
David Murray, the chairman of the government’s superannuation investment fund, said the “tax has to be changed or abandoned” as it contained “several significant flaws”.
“If we can’t achieve a design that does not penalise the existing projects, that’s a sovereign-risk issue and a design that does not discriminate between recurrent spending and long-term inter-generational wealth creation,” Mr Murray was quoted as saying by the Business Spectator in an interview.
“If those things can’t be done, the tax should be abandoned.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/tax-hits-xstrata-mine-workers/story-e6frg9df-1225875249982
I reckon the dunny cleaner at the NSW Parliament might be a shot at a ministry soon
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/04/2918790.htm
Latest ALP leaflet on Abbott & Health:
http://alp.org.au/sites/default/files/downloads/abbott-health.pdf
and this on Better Hospitals and Health:
http://alp.org.au/sites/default/files/downloads/rudd-nhhn.pdf
[So, Labor is home and hosed!]
In my opinion yes.
There are communities who are mightily pissed off at the RSPT but it is not transferring into a L-NP poll rise. So there must be other areas where it is not losing votes.
Those maggoted teenagers at Anzac cove blissing out on the Bee Gees were enshawled by Australian flags.
Did they even know where they were? Or why they were there?
The Howie Youth…
As someone joked a few days ago, Rudd can say: “We will decide who comes into this country and what minerals they dig up.”
Johnny Button
And from OH & me. Thinking of you and all PBers in similar positions.
TSOP
[Not surprising re: the educated. The ability to reason with logic makes it harder to fall for populist fear mongering.]
Greens supporters and party members tend to be highly educated.
Aguirre
[And I think the reason for that (parking the vote) is that people are angry at Labor for reasons they don’t really understand.]
Keep kidding yourself.
I heard on ABC news that the miners are winning the RSPT debate. I guess we can give up on Rudd then. Hail PM Abbott!!
BKH
Might do a better job than some too.
When was the last time a government in Australia lost 2 ministers on the same day for independent reasons?
Inner Westie@158
And you forgot the Howie Worth at the Big Day Out wgho revolted when they tried to ban the flag there – and Cronulla.
Frank
I don’t need a leaflet on Abbott and health. He makes me feel sick and that is enough for me.
[Greens supporters and party members tend to be highly educated.]
Highly educated does not equate with intelligent.
Yes. Barnaby Joyce has a PhD in foot and mouth disease.
ruawake@166
Exhibt A: Adele Carles – Lawyer – but but was so awestruck by a sleazebag she couldn’t keep her panties on 🙂
Do you reckon that Rudd wakes up some morning and thinks to himself “Jesus, I don’t want to deal with all of this shit.”
I really don’t get the impression that he does. Indeed, I’m pretty amazed at how resilient he looks. Seems a pretty happy warrior. Swan as well. These guys really don’t buckle. God knows where they get the energy from. And always, in the back of their mind, the election clock is ticking. Sudden political death is just around the corner.
Frank – LOL
(And I’m a Greens voter…)
[Those maggoted teenagers at Anzac cove blissing out on the Bee Gees were enshawled by Australian flags.
Did they even know where they were? Or why they were there?
The Howie Youth…]
http://thingsboganslike.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/33-the-australian-victory-at-gallipoli/
Frank
Please don’t upset the horsies.
The Laborites and the Greenites should cooperate, preferences-wise, during the election, and then cooperate, Senate-wise, after the election.
Frank – being a lawyer does not equate with high intelligence either.
Elite contempt for popular Australian patriotism should be carefully concealed by people who want the Australian people to vote for them.
P @ 174
Never a more true word… Hell hath no fury…
Antony Green performing stand up comedy via Twitter:
[(NSW) Cabinet meetings being shifted to the revolving door in the foyer of Governor Macquarie Tower]
rosa, Rudd doesn’t take what’s-his-name’s name in vain. He sits on his hands while the planet cooks, but by jingo, he doesn’t offend what’s-his-name.
Is there anyone left in the NSW Government who hasn’t had a turn at being Minister?
OzPol Tragic,
I hope things are ok in your neck of the woods. Best wishes from me and my OH to you and your BH!
Comedy from Fib HQ:
New PM in Japan
[Naoto Kan was voted in as prime minister by the Diet on Friday, shortly after the ruling Democratic Party of Japan elected him as its new president.
The change of leadership comes only two days after Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama abruptly announced his resignation over his failure to resolve a dispute over the relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa, and money scandals that have dogged his time in office.
Kan, 63, who has become the 94th prime minister, will take over an administration reeling from dwindling public support little over a month before an Upper House poll.]
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20100604x1.html
[The Laborites and the Greenites should cooperate, preferences-wise, during the election, and then cooperate, Senate-wise, after the election.]
No the Greens should get out of their highly educated ghettos and indulge their sensitive feelings in politics. Do some heavy lifting on what is important to them. I don’t mean moving stupid motions in the Senate or some stunt in relation to a news item.
Like most highly educated professional academics they have all the answers, they just hope someone else will enact them. Because they are still debating the best way to campaign 6 months after an electiion.
[Please don’t upset the horsies.]
This horsey is not upset. The more direct and indirect insults I receive, the more galvanised and resolute I become. My federal electortae of Deakin and state electorate of Forest Hill are both marginal Labor and are already being targeted by environmental groups. There will be lots of opportunities to take action. I have already been involved in action on the ground and look forward to others 🙂
Pegasus@184
Amnd ensure the election of an Abbott Liberal Govt with NO ETS full stop and Workchoices Mark 2 🙂
Think about it.
The polls are all showing that Abbott has lost his momentum. The mining tax propaganda may affect some QLD and WA regions, but the bottom line is that Abbott’s support seems to be a protest rather than an intention to change government.
As it stands, factoring in quantitative and qualitative data, and being as conservative as possible I’d say the ALP will still have a net gain of 4 seats. (That’s the bottom, as far as I can see.) This is of course based on current trends, if Abbott can break through or Rudd drops the ball completely or some other variable comes in, it’ll change.
Scorps
Best wishes for your OH, watch out for signs of lymphoedema.
When Howard lost the drunken youth Bee Gees fan demographic, the jig was up.
Seems we have been here before. Dejavu??
http://www.miningcoal.com.au/news/xstrata-goes-back-on-coal-mine-expansion-threats
Elite contempt for popular Australian patriotism should be carefully concealed by people who want the Australian people to vote for them.
Straight out of the Howard copybook!
Leaders shouldn’t have any role in communicating a true national story! Or shaping a profound national identity! No! Instead they should creep around Canberra with their lick-spittle functionaries trying to devise the most cunning way to fool the people into a state of Sunrise solidarity.
[The only “loss” I can see is Herbert. But seeing it is already held by the coalition its not really a loss]
ru – a very positive take on it.
Aristotle has already said he can’t see more than one seat being lost in WA. If you’re both right Labor will win with a leg in the air.(to use a bit of horse racing parlance).
[This horsey is not upset. The more direct and indirect insults I receive, the more galvanised and resolute I become.]
Well that really is good news, I am not being snide I really mean it.
Get angry, get involved, get passionate. Get political. I would respect the Greens if they did. But they seem content to be sideline snipers.
Your policy is a 33% company tax, go out and sell it.
[Regardless of his policies, a candidate just named “Fang” would get my vote!]
Not if he/she is a China born Australian business person
Boerwar
[Oh, oh, oh, just saw someone wearing the t-shirt ‘Keep Mining Strong’. And it is a relation. No, no, no.]
…it WAS a relation Boerwar. Be strong man, there’s no place for RWDingbats in your life.
PM lashes Palmer over resources tax
http://www.smh.com.au
content
That’s kinda how it’s been going in the last few years
Well for the most part, that’s also how it’s worked. Despite the mutual antagonism, Labor and the Greens work better together than anyone else. The problem is when the Greens dig their heels in and block legislation and then blame Labor for it not passing, or when Sarah Hanson-Young shoots her mouth off on a subject she is clearly clueless about, or this feeling you get with Bob Brown that Kevin Rudd is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t, that makes it hard to work.
[All in all, this doesn’t really surprise me on. With the media telling them that banning things is good and “darkies” are scary, and that if you disagree, you are a “PC thug” the only thing that surprises me is that support isn’t even higher…]
Everything to the left is racism.
Maybe just maybe… sometimes you guys are wrong?
Banning the Burhka is fair, we are a secular country and we need to see peoples faces. Hiding behind a veil goes against everything we stand for.
ruawake,
[Scorps
Best wishes for your OH, watch out for signs of lymphoedema.]
That’s been a big concern for her, Rua, OH has nursed plenty of women with very severe cases of it and it is for life.
Luckily she only has a mild case of it but has to be careful not to injure the arm, get insect bites or infection in it. And no sunburn too.
sorry went to the above but does not seem to be there but if you scroll down there is another story about delegating
Good luck is all I say.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/miners-seek-greens-deal-over-super-profits-tax-20100603-x716.html