Galaxy: 52-48 to federal LNP in Queensland

The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.

Other results from the poll:

• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.

• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.

• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.

• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,256 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal LNP in Queensland”

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  1. [Given the amount of time some posters spend on this site lack of sleep could also explain their addled thought processes.

    I’m off to bed now so I doubt if I will see any responses to this post.]

    Certainly the most sensible thing in your post and good advice also.

    I’m off too before the Host lines up a missile in my direction!

  2. One quick one before I go! Talk about pots and kettles! This mob were the absolute trend setters in pork!

    [Labor’s $230m pork barrel to save Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner’s seat ]
    [LABOR is raining money on Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner’s seat of Melbourne in a desperate bid to fight off the Greens at the federal election.

    A Sunday Herald Sun investigation of stimulus spending has found the head of the Rudd Government’s Razor Gang will receive more cash for schools, housing, and nation building projects in his seat than any other MP in the state.]

    [Opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb said Mr Tanner’s performance in government was in sharp contrast to his record in opposition.

    “Lindsay Tanner, more than anyone, made his reputation screaming from the roof tops in opposition to rorting and pork barrelling – like Mr Rudd, he’s an absolute hypocrite,” he said]

  3. GhostWhoVotes@1252

    Nielsen Poll

    Primary Vote:
    Labor 33
    Liberal/Nationals: 43
    Greens: 15

    2 Party Preferred:
    Labor 47
    Liberal/National: 53

    I predict a state of catatonia among many regulars around these parts on those figures.
    I think the trend is confirmed, and the Greens vote holding up confirms the reasons.
    With the Greens apparently trying to soften their old hard-core SWP image (as an aside, is that possible with their current membership?) to attract the erstwhile Democrat demographic (note alliteration), Labor has a real job on its hands.

    It now seems clear that if there’s one thing worse than doing nothing, it’s doing nothing after promising heaps. Wayne Goss must be experiencing deja vu watching his old adviser stuff up again.

  4. The rise, rise and rise in the Green vote continues unabated.

    What’s wrong with the voters?

    Haven’t they been listening to the PB Labor Hacks?

    Oh dear, perhaps a personalised letter from Peter Garrett might help,
    or a gay heroin for kindy kids story will work again?

    I can smell Lindsay’s soild nickers.

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