Galaxy: 52-48 to federal LNP in Queensland

The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.

Other results from the poll:

• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.

• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.

• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.

• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,256 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal LNP in Queensland”

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  1. So Abbott was to be PM in a recession? Maybe this is the election you don’t want to win.

    Wall street seems to be capitulating tonight, the Euro broken, AUD down and gold soaring beautifully, especially in AUD. There was plenty of waring things were going to go bad.

    JPM too busy trying to prop up currencies to bother too much with precious metals manipulation tonight it seems.

    Rudd is half to blame for his current problems, the media BS for the other half. However I still believe that Gillard would be a game changer for Labor if things seem desperate.

  2. JV, from the last thread:

    And yet he dumped the popular and infinitely larger and crucially important legislation for a CPRS, which had broad support, with none of the above being attempted; all without a whimper. It is incomprehensible. Who are Rudd’s advisor’s? I suspect they should all go, forthwith.

    Rudd does seem to have been poorly advised. His 30-something whiz kids appear to believe the public has an attention span of seven seconds before they’re onto the next celebrity-caught-doing-it-in-a-toilet-cubicle or footy-star-drugs-shock story. Superficially, you can see their point, but this doesn’t figure in an antagonistic media, hungry for killer stories and political “contests”, and which is happy to set higher moral hoops for Labor to jump through than they set for the Coalition.

    I guess he was told the public would forgive him anything. No need to explain, or argue the case. Just forge on as if nothing happened.

    And look where it got him.

    The worst thing Rudd could have done was that mea culpa. I said it then and I still believe it now: it was a shocker of a decision and post-validated every bullshit story the media had been writing about him and his government since the year dot. Worst of all, Insulation hasn’t been forgotten. It’s been enshrined as a fatal debacle that burns down old ladies’ homes (source: Kevin Rudd himself).

    You could have a Royal Commission into the Insulation scheme that totally exonerated the government, proved that injuries and fires had been reduced to 10% of their previous frequency, showed how the nation was saving $1 billion a year in heating and air-conditioning bills and that tens of thousands had gained employment while those in other countries went on the dole… and the punters would still believe it was a complete disaster. Why? Because Kevin Rudd admitted that it was, in a fit of masochistic, buck-stopping, conceited self-indulgence.

    It’s been all downhill since then.

  3. [So Abbott was to be PM in a recession? Maybe this is the election you don’t want to win.]

    Could there be a worse time than a recession for a WorkChoices-loving, nascent fascist rabble to blight the country with an almost-literal Banana Republic?

  4. Johnny, I believe the nasty Abbott wants to make Australians suffer for turfing his idol, Howard, out. And suffer they would – through SerfChoices being applied with a vengeance, reversal of funding for public health and education, cancellation of the National Broadband Network, Computers for Schools programs etc.

    And where would the media be meanwhile? Cheering him on! Look at how they are favouring him when he’s just in Opposition! Every Banana Republic needs a supine media to do the regime’s bidding…

  5. Cuppa

    Agree. There is something unstable about Abbott and hopefully we will see a lot more of it during the official election campaign. If the Libs get in, it will be like Howard’s Government with even less talent. It will be slash and burn of public services and infrastructure, running surpluses. In time they will bring in an RSPT at a level which is more acceptable to the miners. In terms of reform, we will go backwards. Despite the faults of Labor and Rudd, they’ve done some good things and they deserve another term. The second term will be much better as hopefully Rudd will start to listen to others and decentralise decision-making away from the kitchen cabinet. The quote below from Keating, in today’s SMH, is so true.

    ”But we won because we stayed ahead on policy detail and people felt we had an agenda for the future.”

    I for one do not want to live under a Coalition government for another 12 years. Certainly not one led by Abbott. The Libs need to lose again to clean out the deadwood and bring in new and moderate talent. Will this regeneration happen i the Libs…probably not as they turfed Turnbull.

  6. Hohnny,

    From your OO link:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/failings-dont-hand-mandate-to-abbott/story-e6frg6zo-1225875698545

    […the elephant in the room: the viability (or otherwise) of the opposition as an alternative government, and the credibility (or otherwise) of the Opposition Leader as an alternative prime minister. This is where the political debate must inevitably turn as the election looms large.]

    I have been saying since he became leader that the media will have to start putting the scrutiny onto Abbott and his talentless front bench bunch. But it’s been six months now … and practically nothing. All we’ve gotten has been one constant refrain of the government’s supposed failings, so much so that through relentless repition they’ve been force-fed into the public consciousness like mantras:

    Rudd – all spin, no substance,
    Botched insulation program,
    Soft on asylum seekers,
    Waste in the BER program

    If the news media were less intent on brainwashing the public with Opposition talking points, and had actually been scrutinising Abbott with journalistic integrity, Australia right now wouldn’t be sliding down a slippery slope towards nascent fascist Banana Republic status.

  7. Cuppa

    May be when the election is called the media attention will spin around. Who knows with them. I support your sentiment in your post 15. Off for some brekky, be back soon.

  8. BB, as usual youre spot on. The insulation mea culpa/backdown was the beginning of the current decline for Rudd. The scheme is now referred to as “bungled” every time it is mentioned in the MSM. And this for a scheme that was successful in actually delivering insulation with much reduced fire rates. At a time that Rudd’s polling was excellent. I assume either he or his advisers panicked at his first real challenge in government, and thought his mea culpa was the best way to manage it, as he had done with the fake controversies like Scores. A very poor decision that gave the MSM their first “victory” and carte blanche to go after the government. For all Howard’s failures, I can imagine he would have defended the scheme to the hilt, and relentlessly pointed out the environmental and economic benefits.

    Stupid mistake #2: an ETS. A policy supported by the majority (despite not much explanation), frustrated by a coalition backflip, and Rudd singlehandly turns the attention back on the government with the “shelving”. THis looked like a cynical attempt to take it of the election 2010 agenda/campaign, and saw Rudd use up alot of the capital and good will he had built with the electorate.

    Neither of these is insurmountable, and I note that Rudd flagged the earlier passage of an ETS with the Greens’ support after the next election- this got virtually NO coverage. If ever there was a GOOD reason for a mea culpa, it is the ETS not the stupid insulation scheme. It is his advisors? I dont know but something has to give

  9. Johnny credit were credit is due to Peter Van O and the OO.

    “Rudd may be watching his left and right flanks get peeled away to the Greens and the Coalition, hence his decline in the polls. But any voter with centrist tendencies is still likelier to vote Labor than Liberal, and most of the loss of Labor primary support to the Greens will return to the Labor Party under our compulsory preferential system”

    One error though is the claim that Turnbull did not consult on the ETS. The negotiated ETS was supported by the majority of the cabinet and the party room before he was rolled.

  10. I agree that Abbott is deranged and the media terrible, but this slide in Rudd’s polling can still be traced to that terrible adn unnecessary “clearing the decks” period where Rudd destroyed much of his own credibility. Since then Abbott has merely confirmed that he is at lesat as untrustworthy; Rudd hasn’t been rehabilitated. False mea culpas don’t make you look humble either.

    That being said, there is still time for the government to “refine” its CPRS position, which is still BS.

    BTW, another issue the governmetn has done nothing about (OK I know they were busy in the GFC) was reform of the university sector. It is broken, not just in terms of the level of funding, but how it is spent. The case of still rising VC (administrator) pay while academics are starved of funds is a clasic illustration. This story applies everywhere, not just NSW:
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/pay-packets-head-to-1m-but-academics-left-behind-20100604-xkm8.html

  11. I guess he was told the public would forgive him anything.

    Yes, including by some here who thought the ‘clearing of decks’ was a good thing which would blow over in a week as the electorate has the attention span of gnats.

    There has been a lot of dumb politics played by the Government this year. I don’t know how much of this stems from bad advice, and how much can be laid a Rudd’s feet, but I suspect he may be more at fault than his advisers. Rudd seems to get so bogged down in the details that he looses sight of the bigger picture. Over the years I come across a few workaholic control obsessives. None was worth a brass razoo. A couple were positively dangerous.

    Rudd needs to stop being an apparatchik and start becoming a Prime Minister. A PM‘s job isn’t to get into the nitty gritty of policy, that’s what Ministers and their departments are for. It is to guide policy within the overall framework of what the Government is hoping to achieve and then to sell it and sell it and sell it.

  12. If the Lenore Taylor article JB 9 linked to is accurate, it seems it was Karl Biter and Mark Arbib of NSW Labor right that were ppushing to kill off the CPRS. Who on earth listeds to these guys? With the state of NSW Labor does anyone think they have a right to give a PM advice on how to run a country?

    I also find teh whole argument that the CPRS would cost to much implausible. It only costed so much because of all the ludicrously excessive compensation to heavy emitters. Why not just scrap the compensation?

    I think the whole dropping of the CPRS without replacing it with anything better exposes the fact that Rudd himself was NOT really committed to it. It made the whole campaign of putting it to the Senate and getting it rejected several times look like a cynical wedge ploy. A poster on PB once boasted of Rudd’s skill at the political wedge. They forget that such tactics just make the wedger look cynical. If that was all the CPRS was then the electorate is correct to lose faith in Rudd.

  13. Support for emissions trading, and belief in climate change generally, is dropping, I believe. Will the public still have the stomach for such radical economic restructuring in three years (or whatever)? Doubtful.

  14. Cuppa

    If your comment is illustrative of how Rudd thinks then it explains why he has lost so much popularity – commitment to doing something about CC was only linked to polling, not to any understanding of the seriousness of the issue.

    Also, just because an issue is no longer number one, doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. We all know how polls can be manipulated with choice of questions. Copenhagen’s predictable failure (Dio and I both warned of it, as did many others) meant a new model was neede for action, not do nothing.

    The economic restructuring is going to happen anyway; the longer a start is put off, the sharper and more painfull it will be. Garnaut pointed that out too, if anyone in Labor still hasn’t thrown out his report.

    If belief in climate change generally is dropping, then the government needs to more aggressively articulate the reasons for action. It hasn’t gone away. See
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  15. The justification for the ETS shelving according to Taylor, wanting to make the budget look better, at a time when it was tracking to an earlier surplus is baffling. Rudd was right to be undecided, but it seems Swan and Gillard also made the wrong call.

    How did Rudd expect a hostile MSM to report the ETS story, “Pragmatic PM delays scheme until the obstructive and backflipping opposition lose their senate majority”?.

    And Cuppa, the answer lies in what happens with India and China

  16. Socrates, Political reality bites when public support is slipping at the same time as the amoral Coalition run a massive GBNT campaign against the proposal. It’s easy to say the government “should sell it better”, but I’d like someone to say HOW they should do this when the hostile news organisations’ narrative is dominated by the phrase:

    [The Federal Opposition says …]

  17. Socrates

    The university sector does require reform and funding. There is a similar piece by Ross Fitzgerald in today’s OO about regional universities and a need for Gillard to meet with them.

    In addition there is a great piece on Keating and his views on NSW Labor and Fed labor.

  18. Andrew

    [How did Rudd expect a hostile MSM to report the ETS story, “Pragmatic PM delays scheme until the obstructive and backflipping opposition lose their senate majority”?.]

    After Rudd’s comments about it being an “act of political cowardice” to delay an ETS and “delay is denial”, to then go on and delay an ETS was like shooting off one foot. His bluster came back and killed him. If he hadn’t spent so much time trying to wedge the Coalition with hyperbole about how urgent it was to pass and ETS before Copenhagen, he wouldn’t be in this mess.

    He only has himself and a his colleagues to blame, not the MSM, for the ETS shellacking.

  19. Gary@29

    Was it Galaxy that predicted Labor would win one seat in Queensland a few months out from the last election?

    Galaxy are like Westpoll, about as reliable as a blind person suddenly waking up and being able to see.

  20. And if it is the ETS that has caused this fall in support why would those people choose Tone? I don’t quite get the logic behind that argument.

  21. [Rudd’s comments about it being an “act of political cowardice” to delay an ETS and “delay is denial”]

    How much emphasis has the media given to that statement (and others like it) compared to the Coalition’s untrue slogan that ETS is a GBNT?

    The media wield enormous influence on what the public perceives as “the issues”. We should not sit back complacently and make excuses for their uneven-handedness. A pox on them, I say.

  22. Going to an election promising a GBNT on everyone (the CPRS) was also political suicide. The case for everything costing more was made by the government themselves and we know how people love to pay more for things.
    The CPRS went down the drain when the Libs pulled out and Copenhagen was seem as a massive failure.

  23. Rudd is no Winston Churchill when it comes to public speaking. His ineptitude at the Jessica Welcome Home showed that. Faced with an immediate audience of tens of thousands, and a television audience of millions, he raved on about heros when the real story was a that of a little girl who had a dream and stuck to her guns, just like we, as a nation, should do so. It was a poor performance and a wasted opportunity.

    As a salesman Rudd’s lacking others of the vital skills necessary: a sense of humour, the ability to cold call, a vision to see the selling points of the product, and a hide thicker than Jesse the Elephant’s. No, he’s not a salesman… he’s an engineer.

    Engineers – or most of them – like to tinker with their product until it’s perfect. This isn’t only because they want to make the product as good as it can be for the sake of it. It’s because they don’t want to be salesmen, because they’re no good at and are afraid of selling. They want their product to be so comprehensively beyond reproach that it sells itself. That way they don’t have to go out and spruik for it.

    The other problem engineers have is letting go of their precious invention. They often write clauses into the distribution contract saying that they have to approve the sales campaign, even the brochures, to prevent false claims being made, that they are to be allowed to participate in the launch, but behind closed doors where they don’t have to get up in front of people and sell.

    Take the RSPT. The obvious benefits of the product are the goodies the revenues provides for companies, superannuants etc. Rudd, the engineer, thought this would be enough, that the product would sell itself on these obvious (and very real) benefits. But at least half the superannuants don’t want their extra 3% and we haven’t heard a peep out of the business sector saying “Thanks” for the reduction in company tax. Why? Because the story has become how the RSPT upsets a small section (it is, actually) of industry – the miners – and the miners have done a good job selling their pitch.

    Despite sacking their own workers at a faster rate than other sections of industry during the GFC, despite raking in huge profits during a boom and not sharing them with their suppliers they still have traction in the public mind as economic “heroes”. Not all the public’s minds, of course, but enough to make the product look like a dud, despite its benefits. They have handed Rudd an opportunity to change his campaign mid-stream, from spruiking benefits that only a few care about (this might be because they are so far into the future), to asking a much simpler question, “Who runs Australia?”

    Shaun Carney gets it:

    Australian voters do not seem happy and they do not seem particularly attached to the government. The nation escaped the recession that hit every comparable country and, according to the budget, the insurance bills will be paid within three years, but it’s seemingly not enough.

    What we’ve seen so far this year is the political contest coming to a sort of standstill – or perhaps that should be a stand-off. Neither of the major parties and their leaders is getting a decisive endorsement from voters, according to the opinion polls. Up to one in four people are parking themselves away from the major parties.

    This is why the mining companies’ assault on the government’s legitimacy – its right to set taxation – is so important. If the companies prevail, it will be a powerful sign that our political system is fragmenting, getting weaker, and governments in the future will be reform-free zones.

    The fight now is not about the wonderful benefits of Rudd the Engineer’s product. The public don’t seem to be interested. The fight is about the very role of government in Australia. If the miners (most of them substantially foreign owned and managed), with the assistance of the foreign owned Murdoch media win this fight, we are a banana republic by definition.

    Rudd the Salesman (if he exists) should point this out in stark terms to the people of Australia. If he does not, if he dodges the fight, then he should appoint someone who can and will, before it’s too late.

    The oldest story in marketing is the one of the company with great products, run by engineers, that doesn’t cut its salespeople enough slack to sell them. They eventually get taken over, and somebody else gets all the glory. I’m not saying Rudd should go. I’m saying he should know what he’s good at and what he’s not good at. He should know his place in the government and he should stay there.

  24. Gary
    [Gee, there are a lot of people here putting up the white flag. It aint over.]

    I agree it aint over, and I never said I want to see Abbott win. But frankly, it shouldn’t even be this close, and those responsible for the political errors that let that happen should take responsibility for them.

    Plus, too many in Labor seem to think that if Labor win this election (without any commitment ot a CPRS or doing anything substantive about CC) then that is a good outcome. It isn’t; it sucks for the nation. It is just a better outcome for Labor apparachicks than Liberal apparachicks.

  25. This idea that Rudd can’t sell a message has one flaw. The 2007 election.

    Gary, a superficially good point. But we have to face the reality: that was then, this is now. Different time, different product. New sales pitch required.

  26. [Plus, too many in Labor seem to think that if Labor win this election (without any commitment ot a CPRS or doing anything substantive about CC) then that is a good outcome. It isn’t; it sucks for the nation. It is just a better outcome for Labor apparachicks than Liberal apparachicks.]
    I didn’t say you WANT Abbott to win, I know you don’t.
    Labor is still committed to the CPRS. They have said this. It is delayed. Saying otherwise is false.

  27. [And if it is the ETS that has caused this fall in support why would those people choose Tone? I don’t quite get the logic behind that argument.]

    Just look at Rudd’s approval ratings. They have nosedived. People see him as lacking leadership, not believing in anything, being weak, backflipping etc etc. The ETS was a huge part of that. A lot of people vote for the leader rather than their policies. In the US, the voters almost always prefer the Democrats policies but vote for the Repugs based on them fielding a “strong” leader.

    Lots of people don’t vote on policy. Rudd and Wong have actually managed to turn CC from a vote winner to a vote loser in one term.

  28. Diog, hands up who has been in here mocking others when we point out the biased bastardry of the media? “Conspiracy theory … tinfoil hat nonsense” etc. It’s not paranoid loopy stuff; it’s real bias and them using their malign influence to thwart everything Kevin Rudd and the Labor government have done. Look at the hatchet job the lousy media have done/are doing on the insulation program and the BER. They have done this to undermine the government’s economic credentials because it is THESE programs (among other measures, including the RBA dramatically cutting rates) that prevented Australia slipping into recession. The government does good work; the enemy media find an indirect way to cut them down.

    [He only has himself and a his colleagues to blame, not the MSM]

    See what I mean about making excuses for the enemy media? There’s a large element here of blaming the victim.

  29. [Rudd the Salesman (if he exists)]
    I was addressing this point. He exists and particularly during an election campaign.

  30. I’m not saying Rudd should go. I’m saying he should know what he’s good at and what he’s not good at. He should know his place in the government and he should stay there.

    But he won’t, will he? Increasingly he is getting shrill and panicky, which is not the same as sticking to your guns.

  31. I have mentioned this before and will add it again as a constructive suggestion – Labor needs to order a halt to any deep ocean (>2000 feet) drilling for oil. There is no way to fix the problems. The BP Deepwater Horizon disaster is going to get worse as the slick spreads around to the Atlantic coast of the USA. This will happen; its only a matter of time. THe oil is alrady in the deep ocean currents.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/fears-oil-will-spread-along-east-coast-within-days-20100604-xkms.html?autostart=1

    Non-drilling exploration is OK; call it the “look but don’t touch” policy.

  32. [Just look at Rudd’s approval ratings. They have nosedived. People see him as lacking leadership, not believing in anything, being weak, backflipping etc etc. The ETS was a huge part of that. A lot of people vote for the leader rather than their policies. In the US, the voters almost always prefer the Democrats policies but vote for the Repugs based on them fielding a “strong” leader.
    Lots of people don’t vote on policy. Rudd and Wong have actually managed to turn CC from a vote winner to a vote loser in one term.]
    Dio, good try but that doesn’t address this point –
    [And if it is the ETS that has caused this fall in support why would those people choose Tone? I don’t quite get the logic behind that argument.]

  33. [Rudd is half to blame for his current problems, the media BS for the other half. However I still believe that Gillard would be a game changer for Labor if things seem desperate.[
    1 Thomas Paine
    [Posted Saturday, June 5, 2010 at 2:48 am | Permalink]

    Now this would be silly, the msm would then go after Julia
    They have already made a comment this week about her houndstooth jacket.mmm
    She does a perfect job where she is.

    and i wish you would not post all your gloom and doom on here re the market.

    Its worrying enough for us retirees not know which way to turn.

  34. [But he won’t, will he? Increasingly he is getting shrill and panicky, which is not the same as sticking to your guns.]
    Haven’t seen that.

  35. Read Hartcher’s article. Much the same as last week. But it’s very interesting. You sense Hartcher really wants to scream out “Keep climbing Kev – don’t look down”.

    His article made me think about Howard’s first term. The present one is eerily similar. Howard lost five ministers looked like he was going nowhere, then pulled out the GST plan to show he was a true leader.

    Rudd made a tactical (not strategic) mistake with the ETS and has paid the price. but you surely can’t blame only Rudd and the 30-somethings in his team. Tanner and Faulkner et al must have also been in the room. Which just goes to show that sometimes the smartest people do the dumbest thing.

    But the important thing is that Rudd (like a good general – like Howard) has learnt from his mistake, pivoted and attacked elsewhere (the mining tax). And Rudd is in a much better position than Howard was.

    Don’t know why Socrates is attacking Rudd for “putting out the garbage”. I would say he is still doing that and should keep doing it. Rat-bags like David Murray (future fund) are just trying to build up excuses for why they haven’t performed as well as they should have. Better to let the poison out of the system now rather than during an election. Murray has got all the press he’s going to get. In fact, the more attacks right now the better.

    Was reading about the Battle of Gettysburg the other night. Pickett’s charge is described as the “high water mark of the confederacy”.

    What we are seeing right now is the high water mark of the opposition. If Rudd holds his nerve the election will be a game changer.

    Fingers crossed, anyway.

    Don’t think Rudd is going to hold fire past 1 July

  36. [Dio, good try but that doesn’t address this point –

    And if it is the ETS that has caused this fall in support why would those people choose Tone? I don’t quite get the logic behind that argument.]

    look at it this way with all the msm bs ( and dont usually swear) we are still in front
    its a wonder we are not at the bottom of the ocean so there are people out there who still can think for themselves and when they wake up that abbott worse than WORKCHOICES Would be back well then the rest will also think for themselves
    not every one works in a mine and the ones that do well some of them realise it will be good for them,

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