The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.
Other results from the poll:
• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.
• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.
• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.
• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.
The Finnigans@1196
But that’s the problem with Australian politics, it is. Prime museum exhibit = the exclusive single member district.
The Finns,
Lol! Maybe that earthquake shook up Dio’s time machine! 😉
I’m not sure how long ago I logged on to this but it was at least 6 hours ago and it was already nearly 10 hours old.
[Greens vie for voice in leaders’ debates
Updated 9 hours 51 minutes ago ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/06/2919449.htm
Bob Brown has been courting the Unions and so has Erica Betz according to his own words.
Does anyone think the Unions helping Brown will allow him to give the Libs 2nd preferences if they are going to reintroduce Worstchoices II. Surely the ETU and such wouldn’t be handing over money for to help the Libs.
scorpio@1197
Yes, I know my Resch’s
You’ve got to be kidding. “Designed” to elect Abbott? That’s the same as you were saying earlier today. That is, essentially, that the Greens should hand in their chips and support the government on everything because if they don’t the Libs might win. Seriously, think about it. Is that an objectively rational position to take? Or is it a self-serving version of the modern ALP mantra “You have to vote for us, because we’re slightly less evil than the Libs”?
Some interesting comments on that piece in the CM about LNP candidate, Hajnal Ban. Also quite a number of rusted-on’s glossing over the weirdness of the whole thing.
We certainly get some kooky ones on the far right of politics here in Queensland.
[So what was wrong with your real Dad Hajnal? Something just doesn’t add up here pet. Actually there are quite a few thing that don’t add up in your life story. You certainly have a big ego, but not much substance to back you up. Please give us voters a little bit more substantial than hot air.]
[And I wonder how she paid him back in return? Rich old man – attractive young woman. This whole story is creepy, she wierds me out..]
[And thus, such people gravitate to the dear old LNP.]
[In an article on 4 June 2009 “Ban said she saved enough for the 30,000 US dollar operation”. Now she says the money was given to her. Why didn’t she admit back then it came from the old guy. ]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/entertainment/confidential/hajnal-ban-says-she-owes-it-all-to-mentor-russell-tacon/comments-e6freq7o-1225875670155
[Or is it a self-serving version of the modern ALP mantra “You have to vote for us, because we’re slightly less evil than the Libs”?]
I think you are starting to get the message now! 😉
BH,
[Surely the ETU and such wouldn’t be handing over money for to help the Libs.]
No and their members would be in revolt if they thought money might be going to the Greens to help bring in Workchoices Mark 11!
Bob Brown could find himself in a tight corner trying to play Labor off a break on one side while the Libs and their media and mining masters hack away from the other!
scorpio@1207
Well why didn’t you just say so? 😆
[1054
ruawake
I am as inconvenienced as anyone else by the influx of workers into Perth.
I am not talking about friggin Perth, I could not give a flying fig about Perth. Mining is distorting the economy nationally.
If you fail to understand it is your fault not mine.]
I wonder what you mean by distortion?
Do you mean a prolonged improvement in our terms of trade, which lifts the real incomes of all Australians?
Do you mean the attraction of foreign capital – enabling us to run a surplus on the capital account and a deficit of the current account, or, in other words, allowing the Australian economy to draw on the savings of others, invest to become more productive for the long term while also maintaining high rates of household consumption?
Do you mean the creation of high-skill and high-income jobs in engineering, construction and IT?
Do you mean creating a significant economic surplus that can be invested in our physical and social infrastructure?
Do you mean helping reduce unemployment?
What do you mean by distortion?
Does mining cause price instability? Prices are stable and likely to stay that way. Where prices are rising (energy, groceries) mining can hardly be a factor.
Does mining increase government debt? Government debt is low and declining, due i good part to the recovery of mining income after the crash of 2008.
Does mining cause labour and housing shortages? Only where there is a lot of new mining investment. (Do other things cause housing shortages? For sure!)
Does mining cause high interest rates? Not in itself. Excess demand causes prices to rise, which induces interest rates to rise.
Is mining investment causing excess demand? Not in general, and anyway, increases in supply will ameliorate the effects of expanded demand. It is more accurate to say that the rise in mineral prices and incomes his caused the AUD to appreciate, acting to depress the price of imports.
Is prosperity in the mining industry highly cyclical? Of course. Which is why we should make the best of it while we can. What would be worse than an economy with a strong mining sector? An economy with a depressed mining sector!
I don’t know how many here follow rugby league, but there is a pun hidden in this excerpt from the match report of the Brisbane Broncos v Manly Sea Eagles match today that I cannot help but share. First to spot it wins the usual bottle of Cooper’s Sparkling.
Cf the Greens and the groupings withing them, naturally any party will also attract odds and sods. In the broad I agree with Psephos’ groupings.
But I suspect that there are a significant number of people who support the Greens and who do not fit Psephos’ four groups. They came to Greens support by concern about trends in what might generally be called biophysical decay. I suggest that these are often not driven by class or wealth or ideology. What proportion they are, I have no idea. These are different from the upper class amenity or heritage environmentalists. Another group might broadly be called the ‘animal welfare’ group. I suspect that this group anthropomorphoses animals and are responding to feeling rather than thought. I doubt that this group is classifiable in terms of wealth or class.
‘crack’. I do hope it is not genetic.
*goes to bed wondering how he is going to get hold of the prize*
[1195
Johnny Button
briefly 1162
I see your point in 1162 and your previous point to that. You explain it clearly and to a certain extent I agree with your suggestion that dodgy behaviour may increase. There is nothing to say that this kind of opportunistic behaviour does not happen already at both a Commonwealth and State level. I’m convinced that it does.
My feeling is (and I’ve said this before on this forum- and I’m sure you have too) that once the negotiation process moves further down the road ,will end up with something similar to the PRRT. Higher strike rate and no tax credits (maybe lower tax credits) for losses. How this affects revenue is anyones guess? I’m sure they will design it in a way that is revenue neutral (or alleged to be revenue neutral). The number cruchers and bean counters will be working furiously to resolve it. Intuitively, it may reduce the incentive to explore relative to the RSPT. Politically it is probably the smart thing to do, economically not so sure. It will be, however, a vastly superior tax to the royalty system. In addition, it acts as another in-built-stabiliser for the macroeconomy.
I appreciate your arguments. Cheers.]
Thanks Johnny Button. I am sure you will prove to be correct. We will end up with an amended RSPT that will be the country cousin of the PRRT – no concessions, probably a variable rate of tax, increasing as returns expand and decreasing as they diminish, a higher kick-in point, exemptions for prospectors. One thing is for sure – the number 40% will be there somewhere, but probably as a ceiling rate on the very best resources.
I hope the system includes the states, giving them more money for the social investments that need to be made. This is a big deal for me. We need to invest heavily in education, training and community services and need more money than the Commonwealth provides. The States could completely fore-go their royalty income for a decent slab of a RRT and come out well in front. A sovereign wealth fund would be a good thing too.
Finns
From the greatest poem ever written about time, Four Quartets
[Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past.
If all time is eternally present
All time is unredeemable.]
JV,
Crack/finger/up!
scorps
The earthquake was on the Eyre Peninsula so we missed it in Adelaide. The seismologists say the big one is coming though…
Fortunately, I will be traipsing around Ol’ Blighty soon for a month and I’m sure the God of Earthquakes, who I believe is Neptune, will do the right thing by me and have it then. Water is my element after all.
[1212
Boerwar
Cf the Greens and the groupings withing them, naturally any party will also attract odds and sods. In the broad I agree with Psephos’ groupings.
But I suspect that there are a significant number of people who support the Greens and who do not fit Psephos’ four groups. They came to Greens support by concern about trends in what might generally be called biophysical decay. I suggest that these are often not driven by class or wealth or ideology. What proportion they are, I have no idea. These are different from the upper class amenity or heritage environmentalists.]
I think you have a point, Boerwar. It is not sufficient to see all Green voters as alienated subsets of other socio-political groups. I know some people who identify themselves as Greens. They are usually well-educated though are not wealthy and from my limited experience work in what can loosely be described as the ‘creative industries’. They do not identify themselves as former Labor or former Liberal voters. They are just Greens. They are mostly under 40 years of age. Their affiliation is not occupationally-generated; on the contrary, it is sort of post-industrial or even post-materialist, if that is possible.
You could say that John Hopoate was good at doing a bum job! 😉
I won’t be posting for awhile Bludgers for personal reasons but I shall return.
Cheerio and try to be nice to each other now and again.
So should St Bob be in the debates? Mmm, let me consider that for 2 seconds. Um, no.
Glen, all the best. Will miss your realism about Abbott and your side’s problems
[The earthquake was on the Eyre Peninsula so we missed it in Adelaide. The seismologists say the big one is coming though…]
My in-laws are over there for a weeks holiday at the moment. I bet the FiL got a bit spooked though. He has macular degeneration bad and is legally blind.
Have a good one Glen but don’t come back with a Tony Gravatar, what ever you do! 😉
Two Bob chucking a tanty because Lindsay Tanner is determined to hold onto his seat. Not fair says Bob, that’s our seat!
Another $15 million in non-stimulus grants spending has been earmarked for Mr Tanner’s seat, News Limited said.
Australian Greens leader Bob Brown said it was not right for the government to be spending money to stem a challenge from the minor party.
“That’s because of the Greens but it’s unfair,” Senator Brown told ABC Television on Sunday.
“I would like to see some independent watch again on electorates because why should seats that aren’t marginal be left out of spending on playgrounds and bike ways and refurbishing of buildings?
“And it oughtn’t be happening because the minister feels threatened.” ]
http://www.watoday.com.au/breaking-news-national/dont-shore-up-ministers-seat-greens-20100606-xmk8.html
Boerwar & scorpio –
I think both your, er, pointed responses deserve a Coopers, although Boerwar gets to bask in the technical winner’s glory. If there is a PB thing on election night at a convivial Sydney pub I will personally present the prizes.
Very ‘cheeky’ of the journo though. 😆
What time do the Neilsens usually come in. BTW, the OH things I am a very sad case waiting up for an opinion poll…
[Very ‘cheeky’ of the journo though. 😆 ]
Agree! 😉 Pretty hard to let an opportunity like that go by, I guess!
Green Left Weekly apologies to Paul Howes
http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/44361
[Finns – From the greatest poem ever written about time, Four Quartets]
Diog, from the equally infamous poem about time:
[When I was and twenty,
They brought me the time a-plenty
Now they’ve changed their tune
They bring me the time empty
Come diddle oh day, oh diddle, lie o day.]
When I was and twenty = When I was young and twenty
This is what you get when you vote in a Conservative government. The little people get walked all over so that the rich can prosper and get richer! It was ever such!
[The West Australian budget has scalped its latest victims by cutting a $90 subsidy for cancer patients to buy wigs.
WA’s biggest hospital, Sir Charles Gairdner, has been directing chemotherapy patients to alternative sources of wigs after the government cut the cash vouchers in a bid to trim state spending.
Opposition health spokesman Roger Cook said the decision was “cruel, heartless and inexcusable”.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/budget-trims-wigs-for-wa-cancer-patients-20100606-xmq0.html
scorpio@1233
Update,
Kim Hames has backflipped and re-instated the scheme.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/06/2919610.htm
But it does illustratye that a musical shithouse in Bunbury is more important than helping Cancer vbictims with their self-esteem.
Nielsen poll probably won’t be up till about midnight.
[Green Left Weekly apologies to Paul Howes]
I bet they sh!t themselveswhen the Solicitor’s letter landed on the desk!
[Nielsen poll probably won’t be up till about midnight.]
I am waiting.. beer in hand… in anticipation.
Should be a goodie.
William Bowe@1235
Is that Their time, or 10pm WA time ? 🙂
TheTruthHurts@1237
XXXX?
Toolman and their ABC at it again. What does Labor have to do to get a fair go from these cretins?
[Japan appalled by legal move on whaling]
[Japanese officials believe the Rudd Government is willing to risk Australia’s relationship with Japan to help it win the election.]
And he even uses this as an excuse to have a further shot at Rudd.
[The news that Tokyo is angry at Canberra comes as the publication of an essay on the Prime Minister is likely to raise hackles in Beijing.
Journalist David Marr’s Quarterly Essay on Kevin Rudd reveals that during tense negotiations at the Copenhagen climate summit he launched into a tirade against the Chinese, who he believed were trying to kill the deal.
“Those Chinese f..kers are trying to rat-f..k us,” Mr Rudd is reported as telling a group of journalists and aides.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/06/2919600.htm?section=justin
I know I am a poster with no history on this website, so take me with a grain of salt if you wish, but my understanding is that Peta, Stephen and Maxine will be pleased with the Neilsen 2PP tomorrow.
Hacks (as opposed to enthusiasts) will know who I am referring to. Goodnight.
Frank Calabrese@1238
It’s always “Us and Them” through your prism, isn’t it Frank? 😆
[Green Left Weekly apologies to Paul Howes]
The same comment, presumably from the same writer, appeared in an article published by The Australian.
Reminder to Perth Bludgers – Don’s Party has just started on West TV Ch 44 Digital:-)
Back later.
Here’s the Pink Floyd ‘Us and Them’ Frank, from a 1994 performance, you being a Youtube freak.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qisbLsnSgGI&feature=fvsr
[First prize for loyalty to a foreign power, however, went to the National Secretary of the Australian Workers Union, Paul Howes, ]
More like first prize to the first class fibbers and wanGkers Murdoch’s bunker!
Just some thoughts about Greens and preferences as there seems to be a lot of misguided comments here
Green Senate preferences are determined at a national level by a team of experienced members consulting with other parties. Bob Brown and the other Senators don’t direct preferences. The outcome of this preference is reflected in the “above the line” vote on the How to Vote (HTV) card. If anyone wants to know the details of how those preferences have been allocated the person(s) handing out Greens HTVs will have that information available and are happy to provide it. But from my experience only a handful of people at any booth will ask for it. They are either happy to vote above the line or are going to fill in every square as they want to.
Preferences for Reps seats are determined by members in each seat. Again, what Bob Brown or other pollies think does not determine the outcome. In most cases the decision will be to preference Labor ahead of Libs although this may be a case of least worst choice. There may well be an independent or another minor party preferenced ahead of both major parties but the critical thing is to preference one of the majors ahead of the others because at the end of the 2PP vote that is what is going to count.
In some seats, the members will determine that the Labor is beyond the pale and shouldn’t get a free kick on preferences. They may then decide on a split ticket where one side has Labor ranked ahead of Libs and the reverse on the other side. Or they may go for an open ticket which just vote Green 1 and decide the rest for yourself. Both have been done in the past and always options open for the future.
Of course, the HTV is only a guide and voters can choose to vote however they want. So 20-40% of those who vote Green 1 might preference Lib ahead of Labor. Odd, but it happens.
Here is the kicker for Labor. Labor in marginal seats needs Green preferences to get over the line. On the other hand Labor giving preferences to the Greens amounts to nothing. Only in very rare cases where the Greens get more primary votes than one or other of the major parties will preferences flow to them. So Labor needs Greens more than the Greens need Labor.
When the election is called the first port of call of Labor candidates in marginal seats will be to the Greens asking for their preferences. They may or may not be successful but their record will be looked at closely.
The Labor anti-Green mob on this site don’t do Labor marginal seat candidates any favours.
On another thread altogether, I have just been reading an article in the May edition of National Geographic on Sleep. It shows that insufficient sleep can have major physical and mental consequences. Even those who think that they are putting in heroic hours on the job may not appreciate the down side. Knowing that Rudd only has a few hours sleep a night could explain his erratic behaviour and short temper. The article is well worth a read.
Given the amount of time some posters spend on this site lack of sleep could also explain their addled thought processes.
I’m off to bed now so I doubt if I will see any responses to this post.
It’s a bit of a stretch to complain about “Murdoch’s bunker” in relation to an opinion piece by Michael Shaik of Australians for Palestine.
Rossco,
[In some seats, the members will determine that the Labor is beyond the pale and shouldn’t get a free kick on preferences. They may then decide on a split ticket where one side has Labor ranked ahead of Libs and the reverse on the other side. Or they may go for an open ticket which just vote Green 1 and decide the rest for yourself. Both have been done in the past and always options open for the future.
Of course, the HTV is only a guide and voters can choose to vote however they want. So 20-40% of those who vote Green 1 might preference Lib ahead of Labor. Odd, but it happens.]
Of course if that happens in just 7 marginal Labor seats, then you lot will be dealing with an Abbott government in a few months time, won’t you!
[When the election is called the first port of call of Labor candidates in marginal seats will be to the Greens asking for their preferences. They may or may not be successful but their record will be looked at closely.
The Labor anti-Green mob on this site don’t do Labor marginal seat candidates any favours.]
Apparently Labor preferences in the Senate aren’t needed by the Greens either! I thing the greens record should be looked at more closely also.
The anti-Labor greens mob on this site and at the Federal level, don’t help Labor’s chances of holding government with their favours either.
I hope you lot enjoy an Abbott led government and the return of workchoices!
Which media outlet published it again?