The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.
Other results from the poll:
• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.
• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.
• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.
• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.
[I take that as a compliment. He is a courageous, ethical, principled, and compassionate human being. We need more individuals like him in government.]
It’s your right to think so but let’s not have discussion of his policies hidden away. Bob has to keep the looney left on side so he has policies at times that don’t muster when real scrutiny is applied.
Now that the Party is polling well and may have enormous influence in the next Govt. the policies need to be scrutinised properly as well as the people behind them.
I’d be quite happy for Labor to work with the Greens in a reasonable manner. I’m not sure the Libs would tho.
[TTH, do you not know or not care what an utter wanker you’re making of yourself, talking that way about a bloke with a disability?]
Bilbo, he is a wanGker.
BH
[I have a son who is a Greenie and he has fought long and hard for forests, national parks, landcare, etc. in his area. He doesn’t agree with everything Bob Brown says or does.]
I agree with someone earlier who said that there are several types of people who vote green; the disaffected small ‘l’ liberals, the environmentalist types and the social progressives being some. I think lots just care about the issue that is most important to them (eg global warming) and know the Greens policy on that and don’t really care much about the rest of it.
GG & Gus, please, i am the only that is allowed to bash Diog. Be gentle with him.
Finns
I always make sure my hands are warm
😉
[1113 Frank Calabrese
Posted Sunday, June 6,]
frank when you get a message like that please keep it to your self
Frank
[I expect 30 second spots during the World Cup will NOT be cheap.]
It would be interesting to know what their target demographics are. World Cup fans would tend to be middle-aged men from all social classes.
GG
The polling shows that high-income earners are already onside with the RSPT. There is a fairly close correlation between that and intelligence. Although there are always exceptions, Clive Palmer being one.
[Do you think that you would feel that way if you had been confined to a wheelchair for your entire life, Troothy?]
It’s unfortunate, however I wish everyone the best they can be at life. If carers wish to go into a job that is quite a hard lifestyle, but easy money, working in the mines, good on them I say. I have respect for all people who aim to achieve the best out of life, no matter what job they are in. Thats the aim of life, to do and be the best you can be.
[I think you underestimate our Frank and an apology would be the least you could offer.]
I would but I’m not too sure what I would be apologising for. We all face battles in life, it’s how we deal with them that defines the quality of an individual. I do not know Frank or his situation, nor could comprehend being in such a position. My point was that assuming that others should be kept back from being successful and wealthy simply to keep ones self happy seems just a touch selfish.
[1151 BH
Posted Sunday, June 6, 2010 at 8:47 pm | Permalink
I take that as a compliment. He is a courageous, ethical, principled, and compassionate human being. We need more individuals like him in government]
i know i am a worrier but frank you spoilt me evening and my sleep
do any of you think this hawkes person may know something i looked at neilson and there is a area you can log into if you are a member, do they realise it tomorrow or is it like newspool the next day.
sorry bh i was going to say what do you think
My Say
stop being a nervous nellie
the BASE ie the core supporters of Labor aint moved
the “numbers” are like fluff in the lint filter
useless
🙂
[1140
Johnny Button
briefly 1130
You raise some interesting points. Is it an issue at the moment with respect to the PRRT? I know the PRRT is different to the RSPT, but how does that change things? Wouldn’t environmental issues be enforced and monitored independently?
Although I understand where you are coming from, in principle I cannot see how that is different to any of the dilemmas all governments face with respect to the current company tax and income tax system.]
The PRRT does not provide for loss-sharing, which is why the strike rate for the Rent is pitched well-above the bond rate. The RSPT kicks in when returns match the bond rate. The justification for this is that the Commonwealth not only takes 40% of the profit, it will stand 40% of the losses. Henry’s argument is this makes the RSPT neutral with respect to risk-return analysis and therefore the RSPT will not harm investment in mining projects.
Schematically, the private investor is putting up the cash and the public is contributing the resource; the private sector cash entitles it 60% of the proceeds and the public get 40% for allowing the resource to be exploited; and losses are apportioned likewise. It differs from the current system in that presently when a business fails the government will lose some potential revenue, but it does not have to shell out to the business owners.
The RSPT will change that. Business owners will become the government’s quasi-partners.
The Commonwealth has been free – on the whole – from such conflicts of interest. This is a good thing, because where such conflicts exist there will be scope for political pressure and corruption. The events at the AWB – a quasi-commercial and quasi-official entity – during the Iraq war show that Australia is not immune to this sort of thing.
[
Gusface] i do not understand that modern chat can you say it in 50 year old talk
sorry 60
[agree with someone earlier who said that there are several types of people who vote green; the disaffected small ‘l’ liberals, the environmentalist types and the social progressives being some. I think lots just care about the issue that is most important to them (eg global warming) and know the Greens policy on that and don’t really care much about the rest of it.]
Dio – exactly. He became involved when the Greens were just an environmentalist party. It was all he wanted and didn’t want them to get involved in much else because it would dilute their brand. Surprise, surprise – he wanted them to pass the ETS on the basis that they could always bring in amendments and additions when they had the balance of power. He was angry with Christine Milne more than Brown and can’t stand her. Won’t change his vote tho.
[1151
BH
I take that as a compliment. He is a courageous, ethical, principled, and compassionate human being. We need more individuals like him in government.]
Bob Brown? Sanctimonious nuisance.
[i know i am a worrier but frank you spoilt me evening and my sleep]
my say, if you are disturbed by such rumors then you better line up a course of sedatives for the upcoming election campaign.
[my say, if you are disturbed by such rumors then you better line up a course of sedatives for the upcoming election campaign.]
yes i told my self i was not coming here again may be agood idea.,
only come for the good news. do you know i wish i was one of those morons out there who cared about nothing or no one or elections, now wouldnt that give you a peacful life
my say – that was a Liberal politician dreaming that the poll would be 53-47. We’ll let him dream. Gusface is saying ‘in his dreams’!! I’m not taking any notice of Liberal pollies. They can’t lie straight in bed.
My Say
Dont worry!
The poll average is still showing a labor win
BTW
keep spreading the good oil re Rudd
night all before the oh send out a search party
[I would but I’m not too sure what I would be apologising for.]
We’ll just have to take that as a “no” then, and a couldn’t care less how much distress my thoughtless comments causes others!
Have I got that right, Troothy?
[Say it after me, “The Liberals have always supported the Stimulus. They voted for it in Parliament and their Budget response does not propose to cut the spending on the BER”.]
Added to that GG is Bob Brown’s statement this morning that the Greens were responsible for the stimulus package because they passed it and made significant amendments to it and for saving all those small businesses and jobs.
Bob forgot to mention that Xenophon and Fielding helped to pass it as well but that doesn’t worry Bob. He wants all the glory.
[The PRRT does not provide for loss-sharing, which is why the strike rate for the Rent is pitched well-above the bond rate.]
As an editorial I read today points out, if the government considers anything over the bond rate(5.3% apparantly) to be a “super profit”, the miners might as well shut up shop, close down every single mine in the country and invest all their money into a Term Deposit Bank account(Which pay a whopping 6.5% “Super Profit” every year! Wow!).
Remember these are high risk, high capital mining investments we are talking about… yet the government considers profits higher than the bond rate to be too much. Disgraceful.
Diogs,
A better definition of intelligence is “people who agree with me”. Therefore, you get the repetitious campaign until your ears start bleeding”. Only then can we be sure that you understand the true meaning of these ads.
Scorps
truthy is the dark side of the aussie character
self obseesed,lacking compassion and only interested in what he can get out of life
in other words a typical lib (howie version)
BH,
[I’m not taking any notice of Liberal pollies. They can’t lie straight in bed.]
They can’t even get their own policies right either. Pyne this morning. Maybe Abbott has cut .2% off it to help get back into surplus quicker!!! 😉
[A coalition plan to tax 3000 of Australia’s largest corporations with a 1.5 per cent levy on their company tax to fund its paid parental leave scheme was different to Labor’s proposed tax, Mr Pyne said.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/liberals-scold-pm-for-targeting-palmer-20100606-xmif.html
I’m going to have a go at the most inflammatory post of the day, just by listing three things in this article.
1. Bob Brown wants a place in the leaders debates.
2. BB has said the Greens won’t direct preferences
3. The Greens are targetting Melbourne, saying they need less than a 5% swing to take it from Tanner.
And now it’s time to go and read a book….
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/greens-demand-a-place-in-leaders-debate/story-e6frea7l-1225876149348
[Sanctimonious]
Briefly – a very suitable word especially in light of his plea for money to help pay his legal bills. One rule for Bob and another for everybody else.
Gus,
[in other words a typical lib (howie version)]
And especially fond of Howie and Bronnie’s love child. Mr Genuine, especially when it’s in writing! 😉
Scorps
the gospel of phoney tony?
[I agree with someone earlier who said that there are several types of people who vote green]
I think the the Green vote is made up of four types:
* Old lefties who have found a substitute for the Communist Party and SWP.
* Young lefties, students and inner city professionals
* Disaffected middle-class Labor voters (quite a lot of these at present)
* Disaffected upper-middle class Liberal voters.
The first two are the core Green vote, the second two are the peripheral, who come and go according to the fortunes of the major parties.
[Remember these are high risk, high capital mining investments we are talking about… yet the government considers profits higher than the bond rate to be too much. Disgraceful.]
You and/or the editorial writer are stupid/lying. 60% of profits over the bond rate will be kept by the mining company. At the moment, the mining company keeps 70% of the profits. So, using your “logic”, shouldn’t the mining companies be shutting up shop now under the current tax regime and put their money in a term deposit?
[HTT…….I would but I’m not too sure what I would be apologising for.]
Umm, that would be an apology for gratuitous personal insults, HTT.
Diogenes
[I’m going to have a go at the most inflammatory post of the day, just by listing three things in this article.]
You’re about four hours too late, Dio. Those issues have been harranged almost to death already! 😉
Diogs,
1. Bob Brown wants a place in the leaders debates.
A. He can be a doorman.
2. BB has said the Greens won’t direct preferences
A. Yes, the Greens have not learnt how to herd the cats that support them.
3. The Greens are targetting Melbourne, saying they need less than a 5% swing to take it from Tanner.
A. Only 5%. Hardly a challenge for the Greens imagination.
Briefly
hear hear
Psephos
Can you hazard a guess on the proportions of them at the moment?
Presumably 20% are the disaffected upper class Lib types (given that 20% of Greens pref Lib)
I dedicate this to St Bob and the Greens Army:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIrqs-FUPbo
I’ve been thinking about Singleton’s take on the PM and that he is not half the bloke that good old Tone is.
Would that be because Rudd is an intellectual and not ‘one of the boys’. He wouldn’t relate to the lifestyle Singleton has had – the booze, the wives, the geegees, etc. Singleton classes himself as a larrikin but he’s more of a bozo in my opinion who is happy to have someone like Alan Jones make squillions for him.
I remember posting months ago the words of Dr Chris O’Brien who counted Rudd as a friend. He said how proud he was to have this intelligent, articulate and compassionate man as his Prime Minister. Would O’Brien say the same of Singleton or Abbott, I wonder.
BH
Singo is a dingo
nuff said
It’s Time said:
[60% of profits over the bond rate will be kept by the mining company.]
I thought it was 42%?
Psephos@1182
That’s a relief. I don’t have to vote Green. I don’t fall into any of those categories.
Having been to the RSL for my weekly dose of “Most People Don’t Think About Politics Much, But When They Do It’s Ugly” session, I see the internecine Labor v Greens bickering has not abated.
It seems to me after reading Paul Daley today that if the Greens are consciously broadening their base to appeal to more conservative Democrat type voters as well, then Labor needs to be working a lot harder to be friends with the Greens. If the party replicates the peurile baleful bitterness we’re seeing on PB because the voters Labor is abandoning are seeking refuge with the Greens, I don’t think that is likely to assist them. There are two choices for Labor:
1. Move back to the left on progressive issues, or
2. Work with hte Greens constructively.
Where is the benefit in hatred directed at the people they are losing through the party’s deliberate strategy?
[Premier Anna Bligh shares the same electorate as besieged Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and says he’s still very much loved by his constituents – despite a new poll reporting otherwise.
The Galaxy Poll, published in the Courier-Mail on Saturday, says there has been a backlash against Labor’s super-mining tax in Mr Rudd’s home state.]
I laughed when I read this. The media have been desperately trying to drive a wedge between Rudd & Bligh/Rann, but it’s as transparent as cling wrap.
Galaxy must be laughing too as this poll would have most probably got the widest coverage of “any”poll they have ever done.
briefly 1162
I see your point in 1162 and your previous point to that. You explain it clearly and to a certain extent I agree with your suggestion that dodgy behaviour may increase. There is nothing to say that this kind of opportunistic behaviour does not happen already at both a Commonwealth and State level. I’m convinced that it does.
My feeling is (and I’ve said this before on this forum- and I’m sure you have too) that once the negotiation process moves further down the road ,will end up with something similar to the PRRT. Higher strike rate and no tax credits (maybe lower tax credits) for losses. How this affects revenue is anyones guess? I’m sure they will design it in a way that is revenue neutral (or alleged to be revenue neutral). The number cruchers and bean counters will be working furiously to resolve it. Intuitively, it may reduce the incentive to explore relative to the RSPT. Politically it is probably the smart thing to do, economically not so sure. It will be, however, a vastly superior tax to the royalty system. In addition, it acts as another in-built-stabiliser for the macroeconomy.
I appreciate your arguments. Cheers.
[You’re about four hours too late, Dio. Those issues have been harranged almost to death already!]
Scorpio, that is our Diog. He is the perfect example of Einstein’s Time Dilation. The only problem is that Diog doesnt understand the gravity of the situation. He thinks the past is the present.
JV,
[Where is the benefit in hatred directed at the people they are losing through the party’s deliberate strategy?]
Are you sure someone didn’t spike your drink while you were there?
I haven’t seen “one” post condemning “voters” for going across to the Greens.
I also haven’t seen this “hate” you talk about, but I certainly have seen some, including myself, express anger and resentment towards the greens for their current strategy designed to lead to an Abbott led government at the next election!
Finns
Dio is Dr Who? sacre bleu
[have to agree with Grog. The CFMEU ad is by far the best of the few mining ads I have seen.]
Its Time 921 – is it being shown on FTA telly? I haven’t seen it on anything except the net.
[once the negotiation process moves further down the road ,will end up with something similar to the PRRT.]
You can put the house on that, and that the headline rate will stay at 40%.
Even though this will represent a significant change from the tax as originally described, the Government should just about get away with it, politically. That’s what I’d be advising them, at any rate.