Galaxy: 52-48 to federal LNP in Queensland

The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.

Other results from the poll:

• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.

• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.

• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.

• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,256 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Pegasus,

    [I do not know enough of the Greens Party’s economic policies to comment. Even if I was informed I am not going to comment on a single aspect taken in isolation and out of context.]

    That’s a pretty week cop-out coming from you.You usually post direct links to whichever Greens policy takes your fancy at the time and sometimes multiple ones in the one post.

    Especially when you often just post the relevant quote you wish to highlight, plus the link and don’t even bother to add any supporting commentary of your own.

  2. Bob Brown has been caught out telling an A Grade Porkie today yet his acolytes say “I know nothing”.

    Hypocrits. 🙂

  3. [A bludger on welfare, angry others are out there making a hard-earned living, getting ahead in life and making a mint doing it.]

    TTH, do you not know or not care what an utter wanker you’re making of yourself, talking that way about a bloke with a disability?

  4. I have not seen the Government ad yet. But I’m glad to hear it sounds like it is non-emotive and factually-driven. The less hysteria the better.

  5. Just been looking through the Greens policies. There’s an awful lot of spending there, which is probably why they need to increase company tax: it all has to be paid for somehow.

    Perhaps it would be a good thing if Brown is treated as the third alternative in leaders’ debates and so on so the media can shine a spotlight on their policies, and ask the necessary questions about practical implementation and costings. One interview, and already Brown has started nuancing their policy on company tax. And Cassidy’s interview was relatively soft.

  6. briefly 1100

    “The concessions scheme currently built into the RSPT will inevitably drag the Commonwealth into the environmental consequences of mining. Who, for example, would want the Commonwealth involved as a quasi-owner in the Ranger uranium mine. It is true the Commonwealth would not have its name on the title to the mine, but nonetheless it would have a stake in the financial performance of the company”.

    How do you get the government being a quasi-owner (and by your implication above, ivolved in the day-to-day decison making) when all they are doing is introducing a profits tax and offering tax credits to losing mines? They having nothing to do with the company’s decisions. They are not nationalising, they are taxing above normal profits.

  7. [TTH, do you not know or not care what an utter wanker you’re making of yourself, talking that way about a bloke with a disability?]

    William my apologises. I do not wish to offend those with disabilities, however I found his diatribe about carers making too much money working at the mines to be utterly selfish.

    It’s a sort of stuff everyone else, what about me attitude that really grinds my teeth.

  8. [I do not know enough of the Greens Party’s economic policies to comment. Even if I was informed I am not going to comment on a single aspect taken in isolation and out of context.]

    Pegasus – You post screeds of Green policy here that you like. That’s fine but when it comes to something like an increase in the company tax rate to 33% and taking away concessions you miraculously cannot find that part of the policy to post.

    You’ve let me down. I thought better of you and your loyal posting on behalf of the Greens. If the Green supporters want to be taken seriously then they have to be prepared to debate all areas of their Party’s policy. You are turning into Bob Brown.

  9. Which grade of porkie was Rudd’s claim to care about finding an urgent solution to the greatest moral challenge of our time? A+?

    What about his claim that we “need to have the politicians no longer controlling taxpayer-funded advertising. It’s as simple as that.” A++?

  10. Someone is dreaming:

    Alex Hawke MP AlexHawkeMP

    I have just had a premonition about the numbers 53 Lib – 47 alp 2pp for tomorrow #myliberal #alot 2 minutes ago via mobile web

  11. Inner Westie,

    Boring repetitious posts are not a very good argument?

    Is that all you’ve got?

  12. billy,

    [Scorpio,there is much more to Marc Rich of Glencore, for instance, the real reason he was pardoned by Clinton, read below, it adds another layer of interest to Xtrata. ]

    It’s quite funny when you think about it. The ABC’s 4 Corners is doing a job on Rudd on Monday night and there is so much material available with nothing more than a quick Google & Wiki search needed to expose these cretins that are trying to take over the Government of this country.

  13. [Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, June 6, 2010 at 8:06 pm | Permalink
    Someone is dreaming:]

    frank there would be no way he knows something would there

  14. [Posted Sunday, June 6, 2010 at 8:07 pm | Permalink
    Frank

    He might not be. Someone might of tipped him off]

    now see what you have done made us all worry

  15. Predictable response to the changes to the Victorian Electoral Act by the Fibs:

    Unofficial NewsFeed 7NewsFanPage

    Electoral ID changes ‘too risky’: Libs (AAP): Proposed changes to Victoria’s Electoral Act to relax identity check… http://bit.ly/abKW4C half a minute ago via twitterfeed

  16. [It’s a sort of stuff everyone else, what about me attitude that really grinds my teeth.]

    Do you think that you would feel that way if you had been confined to a wheelchair for your entire life, Troothy?

    I think you underestimate our Frank and an apology would be the least you could offer.

  17. Psephos
    They use something like this for fracking in quarries and shallow mines but i do not know how they do it deep down.

    [Dexpan® Non-Explosive Controlled Demolition Agent is a powder with amazing 18,000 PSI expansive strength when mixed with common water. Poured into the same holes where explosives are traditionally placed in, Dexpan® breaks reinforced concrete and rock safely, while providing SILENT cracking.]

    http://www.dexpan.com/dexpan-non-explosive-controlled-demolition-agent-silent-cracking-breaking.aspx?gclid=CM3Gpoubi6ICFcQtpAodNXrFVw

  18. my say,

    Don’t worry, it probably won’t happen. I never worry about things I can’t control.

  19. BH,
    What I often do is post information about Greens Party views and policy positions that refute the misinformation bandied about here by Labor diehards who try to pass their opinions off as facts.

    In case you haven’t noticed I have made no comment about the RSTP and other policy issues that have no bearing on my vote.

    Are you seriously trying to tell me that I have to know every detail about every policy that the Greens Party have? Do you seriously believe that every Labor supporter and Labor Party member is across all the details in all its policies?

    I feel your angst and understand that you have to scapegoat someone for Labor’s failings.

  20. GG

    I find the level of debate intriguing

    Truthy IW et al use blather and invective

    Briefly trys for the intellectual approach

    and the greenies still run around like chooks with their head cut off

  21. [might not be. Someone might of tipped him off

    now see what you have done made us all worry]

    you should tweet mumble

  22. BB

    Tell me where they said anything about the rate in the ad….

    Crickets

    And explain to me why one ad says that cutting the company tax rate will be good for industry and the next ad says that putting up the tax rate will be good for the mining industry.

    Only a rusted-on simpleton like yourself would be dumb enough not to realise there is a problem of mixed messages.

    But you can always blame the media though, the eternal scapegoat.

  23. [1109
    Johnny Button

    briefly 1100

    “The concessions scheme currently built into the RSPT will inevitably drag the Commonwealth into the environmental consequences of mining. Who, for example, would want the Commonwealth involved as a quasi-owner in the Ranger uranium mine. It is true the Commonwealth would not have its name on the title to the mine, but nonetheless it would have a stake in the financial performance of the company”.

    How do you get the government being a quasi-owner (and by your implication above, ivolved in the day-to-day decison making) when all they are doing is introducing a profits tax and offering tax credits to losing mines? They having nothing to do with the company’s decisions. They are not nationalising, they are taxing above normal profits.]

    The concessions scheme is described as being similar to an equity-holding in some of its effects. It is on this basis that the strike rate for the RSPT is pitched at the bond-rate. The Government proposes to underwrite losses and share in profits. It is approximately an equity position, though without any capital contribution. It is meant to be hands-off. But can you imagine that when things go very badly with a mine that the Commonwealth will be able to remain aloof? Would the Commonwealth have been under pressure to intervene when Ravensthorpe was closed? Or would it be under political pressure if, say there was an environmental problem at Ranger or Roxby Downs? How would the Commonwealth balance an interest in, say, the Gladstone bauxite business with a Carbon Reduction Tax?

    These sorts of potential conflicts of interest are not merely speculative. They will happen. They are inevitable if the RSPT is enacted as proposed.

  24. Losing faith is hard. I know. The Kevin you fell in love with in 2007 is not the man you thought he was (even though you don’t really know who he is). But keep you’re peckers up. Gillard’s in the wings.

    Goodnight all…

  25. [You are turning into Bob Brown.]
    I take that as a compliment. He is a courageous, ethical, principled, and compassionate human being. We need more individuals like him in government.

  26. Pegasus,

    Is that the same broke Bob Brown that tried to con Australia in to paying for his court expenses?

  27. Greensborough Growler,
    [scorpio,

    Careful, you might hurt their feelings.]

    Precious little pets aren’t they.

    Some go missing as soon as you call them on their BS and others like Inner Westie just keep on trolling their juvenile, low rent, rants.

  28. Gus and GG

    Tell me one persuasive argument put forward in those two ads which said that miners should pay a super tax, or even what a super tax is.

    They say we are ageing and need more taxes (fair enough) then go on to say they’ll drop the company tax rate from 30% to 28% (which most people would think kind of makes the first point look somewhat dodgy) but just maybe it’s OK coz it will give business a boost; and then they say they are going to get more taxes out of miners which will help the mining industry.

    By this stage, almost everyones BS-meter has flown off the chart.

  29. briefly 1130

    You raise some interesting points. Is it an issue at the moment with respect to the PRRT? I know the PRRT is different to the RSPT, but how does that change things? Wouldn’t environmental issues be enforced and monitored independently?
    Although I understand where you are coming from, in principle I cannot see how that is different to any of the dilemmas all governments face with respect to the current company tax and income tax system.

  30. Pegasus,

    [Are you seriously trying to tell me that I have to know every detail about every policy that the Greens Party have? ]

    Posting Greens policies here that mostly have nothing to do with the issues being discussed, when you don’t even know anything much about them yourself, seems like a fairly non-productive use of bandwidth, especially when we could easily log on to look them up for ourselves if we felt so inclined, which we don’t.

    Why would we be interested in reading policies that have no chance of ever being legislated?

  31. Diogs,

    I’d say it is part of a series. These first couple are to establish that a changing world needs a changing tax system. That includes changes to the mix of taxes and rates. The lecturer mouths the words and they then re appear on the background which every one will read and mouth. This is a message re inforcement technique. Once the ad is repeated a few hundred times, you’ll know the message.

    It’s not like medicine where you stick a thermometer in someones mouth so you can tell them something.

  32. [Losing faith is hard. I know. The Kevin you fell in love with in 2007 is not the man you thought he was (even though you don’t really know who he is). But keep you’re peckers up. Gillard’s in the wings. ]

    kevins fine with me

  33. GG

    [Diogs,

    I’d say it is part of a series.]

    Fair enough if that’s the case, but they have two minutes of narrative which has led nowhere so far. $38M isn’t all that much (remembering what Howie got for $300M on SerfChoices).

    [It’s not like medicine where you stick a thermometer in someones mouth so you can tell them something.]

    We stick something in people’s ear now to tell their temperature. It’s no good as it doesn’t shut them up for the two minutes the old style thermometers used to.

  34. [feel your angst and understand that you have to scapegoat someone for Labor’s failings.]

    I have no angst Pegasus in making that comment to you. I thought, however, that it would be easy for you to go your Party’s site and download that particular piece of policy.

    I check every part of Labor policy that I am not very familiar with – I look at the site often to make sure what it is. Any Party’s site is a mine of information so you can be fully informed of it when speaking to others.

    Just go to the Greens site and read the tax policy and let us know if you think it is a good one. Just don’t make out you don’t know what it is or can’t find out.

    I have a son who is a Greenie and he has fought long and hard for forests, national parks, landcare, etc. in his area. He doesn’t agree with everything Bob Brown says or does.

  35. And GG what are they doing to our girl KK? You couldn’t put Obama and Hillary in as NSW Premier and deputy and win at this stage. How can she pull it out of the fire with all this going on. 🙁

  36. Diogenes@1144

    GG

    Diogs,

    I’d say it is part of a series.

    Fair enough if that’s the case, but they have two minutes of narrative which has led nowhere so far. $38M isn’t all that much (remembering what Howie got for $300M on SerfChoices).

    It’s not like medicine where you stick a thermometer in someones mouth so you can tell them something.

    We stick something in people’s ear now to tell their temperature. It’s no good as it doesn’t shut them up for the two minutes the old style thermometers used to.

    The 38 Million also includes the cost of buying Advertising time which is VERY expensive during certain timeslots/programs – I expect 30 second spots during the World Cup will NOT be cheap.

  37. Diogs,

    Advertising is meant for those more intelligent than you. Intelligent people need a message repeated many times in order to know they understand what it is about. Smart alecs know immediately and spoil it for everyone by saying they understand the message and repeating it incorrectly. Luckily the Government will persist with the smart people who vote in bigger numbers than the smart alecs.

    Perhaps you should try giving out suppositories.

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