Weekend miscellany: redistribution and preselection latest (open thread)

Back to the drawing board for the Liberals in Tangney, Labor preselection jockeying in Queensland, and a confirmed date for proposed new federal boundaries for Western Australia.

The week after the federal budget was as always a big one for federal opinion polling, which means it will be followed by a trough next week. Happily, an important milestone on the road to the federal election is looming into view:

The Guardian relates that the proposed redistribution for Western Australia will be published on Friday, with those for New South Wales and Victoria “expected in the first two weeks of June, or perhaps slightly earlier”.

• Mark Wales, the preselected Liberal candidate for the crucial Perth seat of Tangney, has stood aside due to a health issue within his family. The West Australian reports the party’s state council passed a motion that the second-placed candidate in last month’s preselection vote will get the nod if no new candidates nominate by the May 29 deadline, that being Howard Ong, an IT consultant and former Australian Christian Lobby activist.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports that state Ipswich MP Jennifer Howard has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Shayne Neumann in the federal seat of Blair. Anthony Albanese threw his weight behind Neumann amid concern over the security of Labor’s hold on a seat Neumann has held since 2007, and which he retained by a 5.2% margin in 2022.

• Feeding the Chooks further reports that Katie Havelberg, policy adviser at Queensland Health and president of Professionals Australia, will join Renée Coffey, chief executive of a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness, in contesting Labor preselection in Griffith, the inner Brisbane seat that Max Chandler-Mather won for the Greens in 2022. Potential nominees in the seat of Brisbane, which Stephen Bates gained for the Greens from the LNP in 2022, include Tracey Price, the party’s unsuccessful candidate for the lord mayoralty in election in March, and candidate from 2022, Deloitte Australia director Madonna Jarrett.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Weekend miscellany: redistribution and preselection latest (open thread)”

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  1. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at 7:35 pm

    ….

    So why the fuck – other than the obvious ‘cultcha wars’ bullshit that Tories always run with when they ain’t got anything else, are we talking about nuclear energy? Which – leaving aside magical thinking – cannot even be ‘a thing’ in this country for another 18+ years?

    If we are lucky Labor will be in power for another 10 years and the transition will be well and truly on the way, to late for a Liberal screw up.

    If we are unlucky the Liberals will get into power and billions will be wasted starting Nuclear plants that will never get built and the transition will be screwed around with for another 3 year term.

  2. Phillip Ruddock.

    Remember him? He currently is the mayor of Hornsby at the age of 81. Formerly Liberal Minister for Immigration and AG.

    He was the original booby trap setter in the immigration system. One of the many Easter Eggs he left was the ‘ministerial intervention’. In short, a whole raft of decisions can’t be delegated to experienced departmental officers.

    For example, there currently are 7,500 refused refugee applicants who have their files sitting on Minister Andrew Giles desk.

    And Giles, and only Giles, gets to overturn the Liberal-stacked AAT override of the NZ child criminals visa cancellations. So why hasn’t he cracked pronto to this cohort? The SmearStralian, Dutton and Patterson are screaming – address these now!

  3. “ If we are unlucky the Liberals will get into power and billions will be wasted starting Nuclear plants that will never get built and the transition will be screwed around with for another 3 year term.”

    ___

    Yeah, nah – if we are unlucky, the libs get back into power next year, they then faff about with magical thinking for three terms and then just commission a replacement set of coal fired power plants in the early 2030s out of sheer panic.

  4. People have often questioned US Rasmussen polls – now this…


    With almost a half million followers on X, the pollster Rasmussen has a wide reach. Former president Donald Trump repeatedly cited its polls when he was president as it consistently showed a higher approval rating for him than other pollsters.

    Now Rasmussen’s social media account is fanning previously debunked claims that Dominion Voting Systems machines could somehow be manipulated via the internet.

    Rasmussen’s source is a former Michigan state senator who traffics in election conspiracy theories and is president of a self-described election integrity group called the Michigan Grassroots Alliance. That former lawmaker cited emails released by a far-right sheriff, who obtained them from an attorney involved in a lawsuit filed by Dominion, despite a protective order agreed to by the parties in the case.

    Confused? That’s part of the point. The idea is to create a lot of smoke to make people think there is a fire.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/28/leading-pollster-spreads-dominion-voting-machine-misinformation/

  5. Australian citizens can not be deported. The family of the 2 year old from Belgrade who got deported after a life of crime at 45, would have had plenty of opportunities to become a citizen but chose not to.

  6. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at 8:35 pm
    People have often questioned US Rasmussen polls – now this…

    With almost a half million followers on X, the pollster Rasmussen has a wide reach. Former president Donald Trump repeatedly cited its polls when he was president as it consistently showed a higher approval rating for him than other pollsters.

    Now Rasmussen’s social media account is fanning previously debunked claims that Dominion Voting Systems machines could somehow be manipulated via the internet.
    ==================================================

    Dominion should sue their pants off like they did Fox news. In fact Dominion could make more money just suing RWNJ companies who make up stories about them. Then they do selling their machines. Seems a great business model to me.

  7. “I don’t have the expertise to assess it but I trust the CSIRO far more than I trust Ms Sloan.”

    steve777, to put it mildly, i think thats quite probably a very reasonable judgement call. 🙁

    Oh, and did out Fubar start referring to NutterTruckers as some kind of source?? 🙂 I actually still go there for the sheer entertainment value sometimes. It was a very strange place when their boy Trump got caned. 🙂


  8. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at 8:17 pm

    Yeah, nah – if we are unlucky, the libs get back into power next year, they then faff about with magical thinking for three terms and then just commission a replacement set of coal fired power plants in the early 2030s out of sheer panic.

    Abbott, Morrison. Ya I suppose it’s possible.

  9. LNP need 5.25% or 15 seats to have a chance at the election I reckon. 73 seats they are a chance and there are 15 seats winnable but Labor remain clear favourites.

  10. “What’s Nutter Truckers?”

    Ancient popular reference to the website of “Jo Nova”. Its a hangout for RWNJobbies run out of W.A. that was known for promoting the Convoy the Canberra in protest at the “Carbon Tax” during the Gillard era. Based on Climate change denial, all tax is theft, Trump is wunderful ……

    A true blot on the internet.

  11. Irene,
    Jesus freaking christ! Now you are pity porn-mining the ‘Luke and his old dad ‘ story. 🙄

    So, let’s compare the pair, shall we?

    My son works full-time for $25/hour. I’m on a Disability Pension. Do the maths. Yet we can afford rent at $500/week, groceries at $220/week on average, our energy bills, phone and internet. We aren’t homeless. We also don’t smoke, drink alcohol, gamble or spend ridiculous amounts of money on tattoos. We don’t purchase drugs.

    So,what is Luke and his old dad doing, despite Luke having a job that we aren’t doing that has caused them to become homeless? The Vinnies begging bowl email doesn’t appear to tell us that. Neither do you, Irene. I think that information would help a lot. Not for your purposes, Irene, I get that, but for the purposes of comparison with those of us, in the same situation as Luke and his old dad.

    Not to mention that Vinnies, as an arm of the Catholic Church, is a tax free service that is wealthy enough to care for Luke and his old dad themselves, but still they put out the begging bowl to minimise their costs and maximise their profits.

    And yet, here you are again, Irene, demanding that the Albanese government subsidise the lifestyle choices of Luke and his old dad, because that’s the only difference that I can see between them and my situation.

    Nice try but no cigar, Irene. It doesn’t work that way and it never has. The Albanese government will never subsidise the poor lifestyle choices of its citizens. That’s what charities ARE for, to help these people.

    BTW, did YOU make a donation to Vinnies, Irene? That’s the bit of the story we never hear about. Or are they just another convenient tool for your Anti Albanese government concern trolling?

  12. goll,
    It’s vile stuff, crafted to mislead. People like that should hang their heads in shame,but they are shameless and survive on endless amounts of the energy that propels the zealous.

    I just finished reading that article that sprocket_ posted from The Washington Post about the Michigan State Senator who is still trying to prove that Dominion Voting Systems manipulated the results of the 2020 election! One look at the photo of the guy gives you an instantaneous mental picture of him . The 1000 yard stare and the hollow eyes with rings around them. But these are the useful idiots that the global Authoritarian Despot project funds and encourages. All we can do in our small corner of the world is be ever vigilant when they try and infiltrate and insert themselves here and shine a bright light on them. As zealously as they try and hide their agenda behind smoke screens.

  13. Citing Nutter Truckers on a par with believing CSIRO could ever be an authority on matters engineering, economic & accounting?

  14. I always thought that FUBAR was too smart to allow himself to slip down the Nutter Truckers rabbit hole. Apparently not.

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