I’m advised that the proposed federal redistribution for Western Australia will be published early afternoon eastern time in Friday, and that EMRS will publish its first quarterly Tasmanian poll since the election at around midday today. Other than that, two items of polling news, one somewhat encouraging for Labor and another rather a lot less so.
The first of these is a multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, an exercise that aims for a detailed election projection by surveying a large national sample of 4040 and using demographic modelling to project results for each electorate, and which it plans to conduct on a roughly quarterly basis. A similar exercise was conducted before the last election by YouGov which involved Shaun Ratcliff, who is now the principal of Accent Research. It performed reasonably in predicting 80 seats for Labor and 63 for the Coalition, compared with an actual result of 77 and 58. But it underestimated the scale of the gains by teal independents and the Greens, which maintained a record of the method doing better with major parties than minor parties and independents. The YouGov exercise also had a substantially larger sample of 18,923, which presumably allowed its demographically modelling to be more finely grained.
With that all taken on board, the seat projection has Labor on 73 and the Coalition on 53 with another nine too close to call, meaning a 50-50 result after rounding to whole numbers, including seven that are lineball between Labor and the Coalition. These are Labor-held Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Robertson, together with their by-election gain of Aston, and Coalition-held Deakin and Moore (the latter of which points to a rather rosy reading of Labor’s situation in Western Australia).
Curtin is rated lineball between teal independent incumbent Kate Chaney and the Liberals, with Brisbane likewise between Greens incumbent Stephen Bates and the LNP, though the primary vote estimates appear to suggest Labor the more likely winner than the Greens (here I would repeat that warning about the method’s record in reading minor party and independent support). Only three seats are identified as changing hands: Cowper, where teal independent Caz Heise is tipped to succeed on the second attempt at unseating the Nationals by 52-48; Fowler, where Labor is credited with a 54-46 lead over independent member Dai Le; and Liberal-held Menzies, where Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead.
The exercise also works as a conventional opinion poll with the rate treat of breakdowns for each state and territory. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead nationally, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. This represents very modest change on the 2022 result, which is also the case in each state and territory, including notably in Western Australia. All of the details, including the estimated results for each of the electorates (keeping in mind that these are set to be redrawn in three states and one territory), are available in the full report.
The less happy news for Labor comes from the weekly Roy Morgan poll, which is their worst result in this series for the term, putting the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, compared with a 50.5-49.5 Labor lead last time. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down two), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 15% (up half) and One Nation 6% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715.
‘Team Katich says:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 3:56 pm
I once had an idea to coordinate and orientate automatically using digital photography of the night sky. It is certainly possible. More so today with the improvement of digital cameras.
…’
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Yep. I use the latest digital photography technology which is amazing. Your idea would require clear skies.
sprocket, I’ve use to treat the high (and getting higher) level of independent voters with suspicion. We are always told and can see how divided the US is. The poll relies on people self identifying. It FEELS like they may be saying one thing in polls but regularly voting for one side at elections. I am less convinced about that in recent times but the theory could still hold here if that 26% of Independent voters saying they are less likely to vote for Trump being a felon would not have voted for him regardless.
Of course, it could be that those Independents who would never have voted for him said they were thus NOT “less likely” to vote for him. And instead, the 26% came from a subset of possible Trump voters. We should see a trend over the coming weeks. My pessimism reminds me Trumps polls seem immune from these things in a swings and roundabouts way.
Out of the 2 Nates, my vote goes to Nate Cohn.
It’s very ‘interesting’ reading comments from people all the way over in Australia about the behaviour of the American people and then going on to make judgements about them.
Your idea would require clear skies.
———————————
Star and sun obs always did. And a very good time piece.
I have heard there are some plans to create temporary drone local positioning systems. A set of drones would go up, operate until they needed recharging, return and replaced by another set. The drone could operate above the clouds and then position itself (coordinates of the GPS satellite/LPS drone are required for accurate positioning of the ground receiver) using continuous imagery of the sky (unobstructed). Not ideal.
Are the Alito’s neighbours from hell?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7wcbZPP_Zc&t=331s
Very interesting that someone who is having a holiday in the US thinks they are now experts in US people.
I was very deliberate in qualifying my comments with the word “feel”. And that my opinions were up for changing.
Cat
“ And guess who just spent the day at the Pacific Northwest Fleet’s US Base Kitsap at Bremerton being given a guided tour of the Naval Museum? Moi!
I was also given some inside information re AUKUS by the helpful navy electrician who stopped by the museum and had a chat with myself and Son #1.
Construction has started on the facility which will enable Australia to receive its Virginia Class subs by increasing the output from America.
I didn’t get to see the Virginia Class subs themselves because they are based at Keyesport, north of Seattle and Kitsap. Construction appears to occur at Naval Base Kitsap though.”
Glad to hear it. Kitsap is a huge base and they maintain both ships and subs. The sub working facility is at Bangor on the NW part of the peninsula. They keep the ballistic missile and secret-squirrel SeaWolf class subs there, so sorry that might have been tough to see.
Also very glad to hear about the VirginiaSSN build facility expansion. That may be our best chance at this point. They are assembled on the east coast but some components come from Washington state. Australia may be better off building modules and components at ASC to contribute to US Virginia production than trying to establish a separate SSN production line. Less cost and less risk.
For all the money Australia is giving UK, Sunak is a real problem. Rolls Royce has already spent some of that money expanding its reactor construction facilities in Kent. But Sunak cut the last UK defence budget, so there is real concern their capability to backup SSN AUKUS is not growing.
Team Katichsays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 4:45 pm
Very interesting that someone who is having a holiday in the US thinks they are now experts in US people.
I was very deliberate in qualifying my comments with the word “feel”. And that my opinions were up for changing.
======================================================
I suspect C@T may have just read through the blog. I don’t think her comment is necessarily about or at least confined to recent posts though. I certainly didn’t consider your post judgemental of USA people. As it was just a comment of how you saw the polls going in response to recent events.
C@t – I had the pleasure back in the day – 1998 from memory – of doing the Seattle – Bremerton ferry, and the naval museum. There was quite a few US Navy ships moored at various vantage points/docks.
The old town underground is worth a visit. Then there is always 1 Microsoft Way if you can wangle a tour there, it is something else.
And the Boeing factory has an awesome museum…
I saw a reference to a Qld poll that was mentioned in The Awfulstalian. Can anyone tell me what the polling was and any commentary about its results? Thanks.
I think that someone who has been immersing themselves in American life for a whole month, with another American, is not simply undertaking the sort of superficial ‘holiday’ that is so casually dismissed by someone from Australia.
I have seen a lot of ignorance here, but I have also seen a lot of nuance and understanding by a people who are well aware of what is at stake after the election in November. So I wouldn’t underestimate them. They are not what you might think. At the very least, not how you seem wont to pessimistically characterise them from afar, TK.
But go ahead if you want and shoot the messenger.
Sprocket _,
The ferry and the view of Mt Rainier was a-mazing! It was a clear and sunny day too!
Has Uhlman escaped from a Dr Who episode?
Paul Daley doing his bit for lawlessness
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 5:04 pm
I think that someone who has been immersing themselves in American life for a whole month, with another American, is not simply undertaking the sort of superficial ‘holiday’ that is so casually dismissed by someone from Australia.
——————————
Yep but are you in democrat or republican areas because some mates spent three months before the 2004 election in America and they were convinced Bush was so hated he wasn’t getting reelected but they spent pretty much the whole time in New York and Boston.
pritusays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 5:15 pm
Has Uhlman escaped from a Dr Who episode?
==============================================
Once he learnt to levitate up and down stairs. There was no stopping him.
How was the wedding Entropy?
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 5:45 pm
How was the wedding Entropy?
========================================================
Don’t ask me, i didn’t go. You should ask Reynolds’ partner. He was possibly up the back of the church taking notes through the whole ceremony.
Entropy, and after taking those notes he would be very careful not to tell Lynda what was in them
Rex: “Burns batting way out of his league there.”
Not AFAIC. Pretty girl, but I find lots of tats to be a complete turnoff.
Each to their own meher.
Titty-Tats aren’t my speed but some consider them edgy.
Each to their own meher.
Not to my taste either but some consider titty-Tats to be edgy.
MB
What is you max tat allowance?
Same. I detest tattoos. All I think about these young people tatted up is what are you going to look like in 40 years’ time when everything starts fading and sagging?
No thank you.
Rex says (from this afternoon)
“ It’s just that Uhlmann and his ilk don’t like or accept the scientific and economic based answers to their questioning.”
I’ve only seen him once and that was in front of Parliament House at the rally for women. He and another bloke were there in their slim-legged, trim-cut suits and pointy shoes just being highly visible amongst the crowd. Highly visible because they looked like they were from another planet. No attempt to connect with the crowd, just there as a reminder of who they were protesting about.
Unsurprised he’s giving full rein to his climate views now.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 6:13 pm
Each to their own meher.
Not to my taste either but some consider titty-Tats to be edgy.
====================================================
She certainly has tats on her arms. Not sure there is any evidence she has tats where you suggest they are though?.
Full book both arms, no neck, face ,leg or bod tats visible.
https://www.instagram.com/georgie.purcell.ajp/?hl=
Pic of Georgie with Friesian cows at the link, not clear whether she wants to save them, eat them, or exterminate them [for the Planet’s sake]?
shellbell: “What is you max tat allowance?”
I don’t mind them on ankles or wrists. Perhaps the back would be ok. It’s the tats covering large areas of the shoulders, arms, legs and torsos that bother me. If they were wonderfully and ingeniously artistic, I might not mind so much. But often they just look more like someone has taken a bottle of Quink and smeared it all over themselves.
You can call me prejudiced, but it’s just how I feel.
Badthinker: “Full book both arms, no neck, face ,leg or bod tats visible.
https://www.instagram.com/georgie.purcell.ajp/?hl=”
She looks very good in that photo.
In the one in this article, not quite so much IMO.
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/new-victorian-mp-outed-as-working-as-a-stripper/news-story/b463055021f2ead6b503f3134593c0c6
BTW, I’m not prejudiced against anyone for working as an exotic dancer. I’ve known some lovely people who have taken up that line of work.
And, at the end of the day, as a libertarian, I believe that how people present themselves to the world in terms of clothes, tats, whatever is up to them.
When I was young the only people who got tattoos were bikies and sailors.
Back to the ’60s, Rocky and Bullwinkle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFBL7ZPqYzw&t=1849s
Perhaps standards have evolved since ur day steve777?
Be the change u wish to see in the world steve777.
Interesting video on why we might not need as much renewable energy as first thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVJkq4iu7bk
sprocket_ says Saturday, June 1, 2024 at 5:03 pm
Maybe their management should visit it. They might be able to find the old Boeing corporate values that went missing after the merger with MD.
@socrates:
“Australia may be better off building modules and components at ASC to contribute to US Virginia production than trying to establish a separate SSN production line. Less cost and less risk.
For all the money Australia is giving UK, Sunak is a real problem. Rolls Royce has already spent some of that money expanding its reactor construction facilities in Kent. But Sunak cut the last UK defence budget, so there is real concern their capability to backup SSN AUKUS is not growing.”
_____
As I’ve been saying ever since March 2023: “If we must” do OHFUCKUS, we should actually do this right. As things presently stand, Keating is right – every aspect of the AUKUS submarine procurement arrangement represents the worst deal ever.
We should simply scrap the brain fart to acquire 2 second hand Virginia Block IV boats in the 2030s: even if everything goes to plan, there is no way that the transfer of those two boats in 2032/3 and 2035/6 from the USN to the RAN will not involve a reduction in the USN inventory of in service Nuclear Attack (SSN) subs. Thus the sitting President (and THAT wont be either Trump or Biden in the 2030s) will be able to certify to the contrary, which is required under the AUKUS enabling legislation before the transfer can happen. Both australia and america should bite the bullet and call it now and THEN move onto something more substantial.
That ‘something’ should be an agreement for the RAN to acquire four (4) brand new modified Virginia Block VII boats – at a two year drum beat from 2038 to 44. By 2038 the two boat building shipyards In Connecticut and Virginia should be spooled up to put out three boats per year. moreover the Columbia Class build program should have stabilised by then (meaning that only one SSBN boomer would be required to be completed every two years and hence the average rate of manufacture of Virginia class boats in america would be at least 2.5 boats per year, maybe more if Australia and Britain abandoned the separate SSN Program (by rolling it into a common SSN(X) design for all three navies) and just concentrated on manufacturing modules and nor entire submarines (and also eventually assembling whole subs from modules acquired from America, Britain and Australia).
AE
Yes that is a more detailed outline of what I was suggesting. There is no upside for Australia in UK finishing the SSN AUKUS design. It would be far more effective for ASC to contribute by building modules to contribute to Virginia production. We then get the equivalent extra subs we help build.
The UK persists in wanting to build a separate reactor in a separate design SSN. This does not help AUKUS objectives at all. Not does it help meet Australia’s needs.
Since we are going to be learning to maintain Virginias anyway at Perth, and the USN not the RN is training all our engineering officers, why then go back to UK SSNs? It duplicates costs for training, simulators, spare parts… its crazy. SSNs cost 150% of their build cost to operate and maintain. We should keep it simple to limit long term costs.
Also, UK has not yet stumped up what it first promised in basing an Astute class SSN at Perth for us to become familiar with them. That is because half of them are in the shop waiting for maintenance. Likewise the Aussie crew on the Audacious are filling gaps in the under strength RN crewing. They will learn from it, but the RN should be thanking us, not vice versa.
“SSNs cost 150% of their build cost to operate and maintain. We should keep it simple to limit long term costs.”
____
A small point of correction: ALL subs spend an average of around 150% of build costs in sustainment and maintenance over their life cycle.
“The UK persists in wanting to build a separate reactor in a separate design SSN. This does not help AUKUS objectives at all. Not does it help meet Australia’s needs.”
It doesn’t even help the brits with their own submarine program. They are probably stuck with the RR SWR3 reactor for the Dreadnought class SSBN, but it is getting in the way of an optimal AUKUS outcome.
Re Tatts
Who cares!
Did indigenous cultures in some countries have a problem with it?
I don’t have any and don’t intend to for the record.
Being There,
I think the indigenous culture of Japan has had some problems with tattoos.
Boerwar at 10.13 am
“Putin… probably would not survive a fair election.”
One is tempted to be pedantic and say, following Gandalf on p 5 of The Hobbit, “What a lot of things you do use [probably] for!” (In the original it read use Good Morning for!)
Putin will never be tested by a fair election. His personalist dictatorship arose for two reasons, one circumstantial, i.e. accidental, and the other fundamental. The accidental reason is interesting, since it shows that Putin, at an earlier time when his inherent brutality had not matched his corruption, could have most probably won a fair election, albeit not for himself, but for his then foolish patron.
The accidental reason was that Putin’s first political patron, Anatoly Sobchak, chose his wife, instead of Putin, to run his campaign for re-election as St Petersburg Mayor in 1996. Sobchak’s wife was no better at campaigning than M. Turnbull (whose only, very marginal victory was against B. Shorten).
The irony is that the one fair election that Putin might have been involved in, Sobchak’s re-election, was a turning point in Russian politics, because Sobchak’s wife helped him get beaten by his deputy, whereas if Putin had run Sobchak’s campaign he would have won it for Sobchak (“to be sure”, as the Irish say, even fairly), and never moved to the Kremlin. Then Russia and the world would have been saved enormous suffering.
The fundamental reason is that Putin’s main patron, Yeltsin (whom ignorant foreigners and Western diplomats misperceived as a democrat) created a limited personalist dictatorship, and then chose as his successor Putin, who of all the possibilities was the person most likely to override any limits.
The 1996 St Petersburg Mayoral election was 28 years ago this week. It was among the last, perhaps the last, fair election in Russia. Nationally the last fair election was the Duma election in December 1995. Meanwhile Ukraine ran substantially fair elections for 30 years, until Putin’s abhorrent war.
Noted DB Cooper!
Whatever juvenile names one wants to construct for AUKUS, the facts of the matter are that the adults are now in charge of the process in the US and whatever happens wrt to the UK will be what it is, and I hope that a Starmer government sorts out the inadequacies that currently exist. However, one thing I do know is that references to Keating, quibbling about the program and continuing to call it schoolyard standard names is not going to change a thing about it, even if it makes you feel potent to do so.
Socrates has the right approach, assess each point on its merits and adjust his position accordingly. As the facts change he changes his perspective. He doesn’t seem to be fighting a losing battle and the last war.
AUKUS is going ahead and it will be a good thing, if the young ‘Union Strong’ marine electrician who works on the subs who I spoke to yesterday is any guide.
The Coalition’s attempts to derail Labor over immigration have just made Dutton the target — Karen Middleton
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/01/the-coalitions-attempts-to-derail-labor-over-immigration-have-just-made-dutton-the-target
New thread.