The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.
Besides which:
• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.
• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.
• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.
• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.
• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.
• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.
• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.
• UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.
[The Face-to-Face Morgan Poll shows ALP primary vote of 42% (down 0.5% from May 22/23, 2010) just ahead of the L-NP (41%, unchanged), while the Greens have dropped 2.5% to 8.5% and Family First are 1.5% (down 0.5%), in contrast to Independents/ Others up strongly to 7% (up 3.5%).]
Strange Green result compared to Newpoll.
My say – I think someone should do an intervention at the Australian newsroom before they all drink the kool-aid.
The only people Obama would have worried about offending would have been Indonesia. That was obviously his real destination. We were just another leg while he was in the neighbourhood.
These polls are all over the place at the moment.
Interesting!
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Business/2010/06/04/BHP_mine_radiation_unsafe_-_reports_469778.html
Manipulated OHS data??
Mmmm……
And just who are these mysterious Indies/Others who keep jumping up and down magically. How can their vote go from 3.5% to 7%?
Dio last thread 2978 (re: the Foley thing)
Yeah, I kind of turn off the Foley news. Not because I’m in denial and don’t like to see him roasted but because it is so obvious he is a dead man walking now. While, using a dam metaphor, he has always been a figure with leaks coming out, the walls have broken and the water is rushing through. His resignation shall not be far off, methinks.
I, myself, am not pro-oval. Adelaide is still severely lacking in infrastructure and priorities should be established. Although I don’t follow Aus Rules Football, so I could be biased. Although I do admit that the Rann government’s plans are just a rushed answer to the Libs’ proposal, but so it doesn’t look like they’ve copied them.
Ironically, I think you are more likely to see Labor build a new oval than the Libs. The latter promise big, but they are the craftiest at breaking promises. They are anti-infrastructure and improvements, or if forced to build, will do the cheapest, most half-assed job imaginable. It’s sad that a state that historically is rich, civics-wise, is in such a rut at the moment. An arrogant, complacent government, or an inept opposition that you already know will make a terrible government? You choose.
[These polls are all over the place at the moment.]
Except that they all show the L-NP are struggling to get the primary vote they did in 2007.
[While, using a dam metaphor, he has always been a figure with leaks coming out, the walls have broken and the water is rushing through. His resignation shall not be far off, methinks.]
If Foley goes that will be the beginning of the end for the Government. It will be the equivalent of Morris Iemma and Michael Costa being forced to resign.
[Although I do admit that the Rann government’s plans are just a rushed answer to the Libs’ proposal, but so it doesn’t look like they’ve copied them. ]
The Lib plan is to build a completely new stadium, which would cost at least $750 million.
Interesting result. Honestly don’t know what to make of it. As Morgan poll seems to favour Labor a bit more, this may not be good news. Then again, ALP is still in the lead, and despite the mudd throwing, Abbott cannot seem to make ground (that primary vote is not budging any higher.)
I think we have definitely found our floor. Which considering it is only at the 50-50 mark and the only way Rudd can go is up, is not good news for Abbott and his cult!
Truthy is going to be insufferable when he sees this poll
[Truthy is going to be insufferable when he sees this poll]
bob numbers will hate it. 😉
[And just who are these mysterious Indies/Others who keep jumping up and down magically. How can their vote go from 3.5% to 7%?]
The theory is that the disgruntled are parking their votes with ‘others’ rather than choosing Lab/Lib/Green. You’d imagine a good chunk of them will eventually return to Labor given the ‘ugly truth’ of the alternative :p
Off topic I know, but I tried to post on the previous thread.
I think the people most against the RSPT would be those wealthy individuals who live in extravagant apartments and mansions in the UK who bought say 1 million Billiton shares 25 years ago for about a pound sterling, and have seen their dividend increase from 40cents to $2.80 in the past 10 years.
A nice little pick up each year for shares that cost originally about $2.50 and are now worth over $40.00. $2.8M bucks a year income for doing absolutely nothing and contributing nothing back to their community.
They would hate to have that dividend reduce by 22% as instead of the 8 month world cruise, they would only be able to afford the 6 months one. This scenario would apply to tens of thousands of UK and US investors, poor petals.
Years ago when I worked in a bank, there were heaps of people that have as their only source of income, dividend payments from Blue Chip companies. Some of their incomes make your head spin and many of them are widows who are sitting back reaping the investment benefits that their spouses provided prior to their demise.
I remember one lady in particular who used to get at least 40 monthly dividend cheques as well as half yearly and yearly dividends. She lived a grand life and contributed “nothing” back to her community. A good whack of those dividends used to get invested in more blue chip stock which just made her obscene wealth grow at an incredible rate.
I bet also that the dividends that are paid to overseas investors don’t even have imputation credits deducted which is also a bleeding of benefit from “our” resource wealth!
The most interesting aspect of the Morgan polls is the question of “who do you think will win?”
Jan/Feb ALP 76% L-NP 24%
Mar/Apr ALP 75% L-NP 24%
May ALP 65% L-NP 35%
The May figure is broadly in-line with the bookmakers’ current probabilities.
FYI
[In the last few days bets of $20,000.00 at $1.42, $5,000.00 at $1.43 and $2,000.00 at $1.43 have arrived for the government, while a Canberra man yesterday bet $6,500.00 on the Coalition at $2.72! Centrebet currently has Labor a $1.43 favourite, with the Coalition a $2.72 outsider!]
Newspoll gives Green as an option when it asks who people will vote for. Does Morgan? Could this be a reason for the differing numbers?
why no phone poll this week?
Memo: polling is an inexact science. One-percent wobbles in polls are meaningless. Polls that purport to show results in decimal places are nonsense. All the polls can tell us at the moment is that Labor is ahead.
[Truthy is going to be insufferable when he sees this poll]
But he thinks Morgan is crap.
Aristotle,
Interesting that Centrebet is also running line betting, with odds of $1.85 for Labor at -4.5 seats, and Libs at $1.85 at +4.5 seats. This means that you can win $1.85 if Labor win 5 more seats than the coalition.
Seems like enticing odds to me!!
Possibly, but not necessarily. Foley has always been viewed in the negative. He was bad cop to Rann’s good cop. So him going won’t cause that many tears to shed. Secondly, we’re in an autumn government now. Major retirements are expected this term, Foley can just spin it as time to move on after 8 long years as Treasurer.
This government are walking ghosts. They seem to be in a much healthier position than they actually are. Renewal is their best hope because people are willing to swallow 4 years of Liberal mismanagement just to clean house.
Right. Precisely my point. Rann couldn’t have a new stadium because the Libs and the media would have a field day saying the Liberals are now the ones making the decisions.
Mark my words, I guarantee the Libs will never build a new stadium, and if they do it’ll be very flawed and a national embarrassment.
I thought a Foley was a guy or gal who records background noise?
[Seems like enticing odds to me!!]
I know Scorpio is hanging out for $1.50 on the ALP. He would get that if these others would stop making these large bets on the ALP.
Patience is a virtue.
[Mark my words, I guarantee the Libs will never build a new stadium, and if they do it’ll be very flawed and a national embarrassment.]
Remember the Hindmarsh Stadium fiasco. Oh how I laughed when Joan Hall had to resign over that one.
To him a poll’s validity hinges on whether or not it says what he wants.
Morgan started having results 55-45 to the Coalition, it would be an accurate poll to him. If every other poll were contradicting it, Morgan would be the only correct poll.
But to be fair to Truthy, there are quite a few people on here like that, from all sides of politics.
[2 rosa
Posted Friday, June 4, 2010 at 2:44 pm | Permalink
My say – I think someone should do an intervention at the Australian newsroom before they all drink the kool-aid.
The only people Obama would have
]
surley this poll is not so bad, have some of the votes come back to us that where with the greens.
we have to allow for margins of error may be very similar to last friday really.
[A 20-year plan backed by a federal funding promise of $200 million has been released to help restore the lower Murray, its lakes and Coorong wetlands region.
The plan has 25 measures, four of which are to be implemented immediately with $21 million of funding.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/04/2918562.htm?section=justin
Good news, maybe it should have started a decade ago but at least its a start.
[Newspoll gives Green as an option when it asks who people will vote for. Does Morgan? Could this be a reason for the differing numbers?]
good question like phes answer the best
So, now that the scheduled Obama visit is canceled, what does that do to possible timings for the next Federal Election??
Up till now i would have thought that there was no way an election would be announced prior to the US presidents visit. Would have been terribly bad form to appear to be politicizing that in terms of Australian domestic politics.
If that’s no longer a factor then Rudd could call it any time from now on.
Anyone know what the average length of the campaign proper has been over the last few years?
If they were to aim for 6 weeks, and announce the election on or after the last sitting day this month on the 24th June, then that would put the election on the 14th or 21st of August??
How many Labor hacks were calling for a GBNT on miners before the government announced it?
I’m guessing.. ZERO. Of course they all fall inline behind their comrade Rudd singing the Labor anthem song, with absolutely no questioning of comrade Rudd’s new policy announcement.
Meanwhile key policies that the Labor supporters were spruiking about… an ETS, being soft touches on boatpeople and real healthcare reform… well gee, that stuff got thrown out the window.
Nope this election will be all about introducing a GBNT on miners to pay off Labors debt caused by Labor Binge Spending. Brilliant… if this government stands for anything it’s big spending and big taxing.
[Nope this election will be all about introducing a GBNT on miners to pay off Labors debt caused by Labor Binge Spending.]
No the election will be about a variety of things, if the Libs want to have a single issue election bring it on.
[I know Scorpio is hanging out for $1.50 on the ALP. He would get that if these others would stop making these large bets on the ALP.]
Yeah the bastards. What’s wrong with these Coalition supporters? Don’t they get any encouragement from their lift in the polls and the bleeding from the Labor vote!
We badly need another Newspoll “outlier” in favour of the Coalition to wake these chicken hearted investors up so that the Labor odds get up to a decent level.
I can quickly invest and sit back and watch them go south again as Labor picks up in the polling as we get closer to the election! 😉
I’ve just read the accompanying notes of the Morgan Poll,
[If a Federal Election were held today the result would be close, but with the ALP returned with a reduced majority according to this week’s Face-to-Face Morgan Poll]
Neither of these interpretations are correct.
Taking the results at face value, 52.5/47.5 is not a close election and that result would see the ALP ending up with 85 seats, 2 more than they currently hold (following the re-distributions).
imacca,
can the election writs be issues before July 1 and still not shorten the term ofthe next government?
imacca 27
I’ve had an August election on the books for ages. I don’t think Obama’s visit would’ve helped Rudd’s chances at all. The opposition will call Rudd a puppet (remember they don’t understand irony,) will say Rudd is trying to latch on to Obama’s appeal and as I mentioned in the previous thread, the media will bait Obama into saying that he’d work well with both Rudd and Abbott – which will then be spun as “Obama supports Abbott/Obama abandons Rudd” etc. (If you think that won’t happen, look at what is already happening: Rudd is being blamed for Obama cancelling, or at least being accused of breaking a promise of it)
[Possibly, but not necessarily. Foley has always been viewed in the negative. ]
By who? This is rubbish. Foley has always been considered a competent Treasurer who won’t cave into pressure from any lobby. He completely outplayed Griffiths during the election campaign by making economic management a net positive for Labor which is not the normal state of affairs.
[Right. Precisely my point. Rann couldn’t have a new stadium because the Libs and the media would have a field day saying the Liberals are now the ones making the decisions.]
Um, no. The State CAN”T AFFORD to spend money building brand new sporting stadiums, when it under invests in health and education.
Any poll that has Labor in front at the moment is a good poll.
Essential will be very interesting on Monday because all the crap the mining industry has been spewing out this week should be factored in.
He is also viewed as arrogant, out of touch and slimey. And I know quite a few people who have worked for him who wouldn’t trust him, to save their life. The point is he is disliked and not many tears would be shed if he goes.
Um, yes. They shouldn’t be upgrading Adelaide oval either (although at least that serves the cricket as well) but were cornered into doing it because the Libs oval plan polled well, and was a positive issue for them. You’re preaching to the choir here by the way. Ovals are low on my list of priorities.
Truthy has done it again.
Truthy why do you keep ignoring the reason for the budget deficit or are you really saying that the Govenrment should have wiped out 200,000 jobs jsut to stay balanced.
Its okay Truthy we understand that the Liberals wanted a recession
Oh for FFS from Britnay:
[He is also viewed as arrogant, out of touch and slimey. ]
So was Paul Keating, but he was Treasurer for 8 and PM for over 4 years.
It’s clearly meant facetiously 🙂
Frank
How can the White House cancel a trip that was never officially announced? Maybe Britney has the answer?
[can the election writs be issues before July 1 and still not shorten the term of the next government?]
Section 13 says that the relevant date is the date of the election, not the date of the issuing of the writs. So we could have an election on the first Saturday in July 2010 and the Senators’ terms would still begin on 1 July 2011.
And…?
We’re not discussing whether or not Premier Foley can win the next election, we’re discussing whether or not his resignation (or retirement, if he spins it correctly) would be the death blow for the government.
[…we’re discussing whether or not his resignation (or retirement, if he spins it correctly) would be the death blow for the government.]
Yes it would. Foley is integral to the Government’s economic credibility.
Foley has been a competent Treasurer despite his character flaws probably time for him to head back to business where he is keen to go anyway
[So we could have an election on the first Saturday in July 2010 and the Senators’ terms would still begin on 1 July 2011.]
A 28 day campaign? 🙂
Sorry psephos I know what you are saying. But July is getting real close.
[if this government stands for anything it’s big spending and big taxing.]
No it stands for just about the lowest unemployment in the OECD, the lowest debt to GDP ratio, and the creation of 225,000 jobs while your heros in the mining cut 15% of the workforce.
As Henry said if the whole economy had emulated your hero’s, we would have had an unemployment rate of 19% in 6 months.
It is well known that the Govt stimulus got us out of the GFC smelling roses, while the LIE that the miners somehow saved us has been completely debunked.
Niall Ferguson, one economist I respect claimed on latelione the other night that Australia (and Canadia) was a model of how to use Keynesian macro economic policy to stave off recession, also praising the Australian govt for its plan to be back in surplus in three years.
Apparently whereever you look reputable economists are praising the Australian model. As I travel to our divisions in Europe and Asia for work, I see first hand the devestating effects of the GFC on individuals and countries.
My dealings with the locals in countries of these regions have them disbelieving that we survived the GFC, not only unscathed, but in a strong position.
I think because we live on an island so far away from the action, we become a bit insular and dont really understand the depths that some countries have fallen to.
I remember the empty shops of the ’91 recession in Australia. Nothing like that is seen here. But go to Britain and every third premises on a High street across the country is empty. Tokyo is full of homeless middle aged men. it has increased in great numbers over the past couple of years. Where i once saw maybe 100 being fed in Ueno Park 5 years ago, I now see at least five times that many. the banks of the Sumida is filled with blue tarps.
This ridiculous harping on big spending is just asanine. It kept this country bouyant, it kept hundreds of thousands in jobs, it is a FACT, and has been proven, but insular little people from FNQ who obviously have no real wordly experience of the current global economic conditions contine to peddle the mistruths and lies because to them this whole thing is some sort of parlour game.
I cant tell you, Australia is the envy of the world currently, and only fools and agenda peddlers like the Murdoch press, and mining billionaires would have you believe otherwise.
\rant
It wasn’t the government’s economic record which almost lost it the last election.
AWU Super Tax Leaflet – spread the word.
http://www.awu.net.au/super_tax_booklet_email__2__1.pdf
I think the key date is that Parliament rises on 24 June and returns on 24 August. Retiring members have been told to make their tearful farewells now. This suggests that the dissolution will be before 24 August. That suggests a late August or September election.
Omen: Saturday 21 August is the same date as Labor’s greatest ever federal election win, in 1943 under John Curtin.