Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Courtesy of Ghost Who Votes on Twitter, Newspoll has Labor recovering to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred (up from 50-50 a fortnight ago), but back down two points to their 35 per cent nadir on the primary vote with the Coalition also down two points to 41 per cent. The big show is the Greens – up four to 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables from Mumble. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings have reached a new low, with approval down three points to 36 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, the news for Tony Abbott is even worse: approval down five to 37 per cent and disapproval up four to 49 per cent. All this cancels each other out on preferred prime minister, with Rudd’s lead steady on 49-33.

Also out today was the weekly Essential Research, which had Labor’s lead down slightly from 52-48 to 51-49. Both leaders’ approval ratings have plunged – Rudd’s net rating is negative for the first time. Good news for the government though with 58 per cent rating a returning of “laws similar to WorkChoices” under Tony Abbott as “likely”. Forty-five per cent express themselves “concerned”, and 43 per cent say their views are closer to the unions than to Tony Abbott against 24 per cent for the other way round. Forty-six per cent say ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 14 per cent more likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,189 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. “Love to have a tax on banks (only in the sense that the banks are an oligopolistic industry protected by high barriers to entry, which reinofrce their ’super profits)but not sure how they could be taxed.”

    There is a strong argument that banks should pay an additional tax like an insurance charge to the govt in the event they collapse and the govt has to bail them out. regulation is one thing but banks can overextend and miss allocate credit despite regulation. when a bank fails it is the taxpayer who bears the cost. the evidence is clear on this in the US,Uk and aust – with the experience of state banks in the 80s. Banks are at the fulcrum of society and when they go under they have to be bailed out. I would not agree on an additional tax because of the industry structure however ie oligopoly.

  2. Laocoon

    [ Surprisingly I’m getting a few blank looks

    You’re getting blank looks in Broken Hill!!!!

    Oh wow. If that is the case, how disengaged must be people in metropolitan areas??]

    Most of them are grumbling more about the increase in tobacco tax than the RSPT. I wonder if we’ve all missed that as a reason for the drop in Rudd/Labor’s ratings. It doesn’t get a mention in most analysis but it might be more important than we realise.

  3. I was wondering about the tobacco tax as well re: drop in government support – people might not admit it as an up front ‘this is why I’m unhappy’ but it could well be the trigger for a lot of subliminal resentment…

  4. [It doesn’t get a mention in most analysis but it might be more important than we realise.]
    People aren’t going to vote exclusively because of an increase in tobacco taxes. As if the Liberals are going to come into government and pass a tax cut on tobacco products! They would be the laughing stock of the world.

  5. [If Labor wins the election they will have a mandate to pass it.]

    It’ll depend on the size of the victory. If it’s like the ’98 election the ‘madate’ will likely be ignored.

  6. Dio, that is interesting.
    [Most of them are grumbling more about the increase in tobacco tax than the RSPT]
    A good reminder in that “clearing the decks” the government has peeved any number of special interest groups – home buyers; smokers; AGW types; miners; home insulation installers blah blah blah. No wonder PM/government approval ratings are down…whole range of issues

    I hope they start ramping up the sell story soon

  7. ShowsOn – almost nobody, except total nicotine addicts, are going to think about the tax at the election. They’ll have adjusted by then.

  8. [People aren’t going to vote exclusively because of an increase in tobacco taxes…]

    True, but smokers got hit in the hip pocket by the Govt. This is the biggest nerve in a voters body.

  9. [Pollytics made that very point: that the tobacco tax was the main reason for the drop in Govt support.]

    That bloody Possum again!!

    Do you have a link where he said it? It really isn’t mentioned in the MSM as a reason. Lots of people smoke in the country, about 50% more than in the city from memory.

  10. Laacoon – you missed out financial planners – the scum of the earth. The Government seems to have really torn into their commissions. I think that is one of the great accomplishments of this govt (though I think Tone is holding up the legislation – anybody know?). Talking about getting parasites off the skin of average Australians.

  11. [Lots of people smoke in the country, about 50% more than in the city from memory.]
    The election won’t be won or lost in the country.

  12. TTH #3056

    [The GST replaced existing taxes.. it was Tax Reform]

    It replaced some existing taxes and at the same tim increased tax revenue to unprecedented levels.

    The RSPT is EXACTLY the same, it is replacing Royalties, but also offering incentives.

    So in effect it is quite similiar to the introduction of the GST except it will benefit the owners of the assets with increased superannuation and therefore a better retirement, and also help the millions of other businesses by lowering the company tax to 28% and give them write offs of capital expenditure up to $5000.

    Why do you support increases of taxes for millions of business (company tax rate to 31.5% for the maternity leave fiasco) and the attack on retirees in years to come when our aging population will not be able to be afforede with pensions?

  13. [article on Xstrata by Tony Maher (CFMEU) over at the other site:

    is this a murdock or fair fax site.

    Perhaps william can give us some idea just how many people actully use this and all the other alterantive media, if it is a good proportion then it becomes word of mouth
    But of course you have to be willing to speak up and say what you think in nice way of course.

    AS i said what gov is going to hurt its people by sending the miners packing i dont think so. Its all for the good.

    Any was this gov of course.

  14. about the increase in tobacco tax??? Somewhere around 19% of people smoke, I would suggest some 4 or 5 people out of that one fifth of the population did not like the tax increase and in my opinion reduced the 2pp by 3 or 4%?.
    Who knows how people react?.

  15. [urprisingly I’m getting a few blank looks

    You’re getting blank looks in Broken Hill!!!!]

    or do you surprsingly last week i mentioned the tax to some one and they said
    What tax

  16. Diogenes

    * BHP Billiton proposes an increase in water consumption from 37 million litres daily (from the Great Artesian Basin) to over 250 million litres daily (up to 42 million litres from the Great Artesian Basin, the remainder from a proposed desalination plant near Whyalla). That’s over 100,000 litres every minute ? in the driest state in the driest inhabited continent. The water take from the Great Artesian Basin has had adverse impacts on the precious Mound Springs and the desalination plant is also controversial.

    * The Indenture Act allows BHP Billiton to extract massive and unsustainable amounts of water from the Great Artesian Basin for free despite the company’s $17.7 billion profit in 2007-08.”
    Love this site, particularly page 4

  17. dovif

    If you believe the hubris from miners, Libs and other entities benefiting finacially from the mining industry, you really are clueless. It is all posturing. They are deeply concerned that once Australia gets it through all other mining countries will follow.

    The mining industry has fought at every type of reform (PRRT, Mabo, Workchoices {pro}, ETS), if they win you can kiss reform out the window for any future governments. At the end of the day they don’t want to pay tax. No one does, but if none of us pay what is right we will end up like Greece and the other European troubled economies. You want the services and infrastructure you have to pay the right amount of tax.

  18. Poor ol’ JP Morgan

    [LONDON (Dow Jones)–The U.K. Financial Services Authority said Thursday that it has fined a J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) unit GBP33.32 million–about $49 million–for failing to separate client money from the firm’s, the largest fine in the FSA’s history.

    The regulator also warned firms that it has more such cases in the pipeline, urging them to ensure their internal controls over client money separation are in place. ]

    Maybe a reason they sold $100 mill of resources stock?

  19. Diogenes@3104

    So why isn’t it being done on all other industries then?

    How many other industries have increased their prices by up to 900% in 6 years while their costs have only risen marginally?

    The price of iron ore in the decade to 2004 averaged US$20/tonne. It is now between US$120-180/tonne and more price rises are on the way. Coal hasn’t gone up as much, but has still more than doubled, again with only a marginal increase in costs.

    Sure, the big miners will be $9bill. worse off than if the tax doesn’t go ahead, but they will still be several orders of magnitude more profitable than they were up to 2004.

    As the the Broken Hill mines, their best days are long gone. I doubt they are making much more than 10% profit on investment, which seems to be the ‘break even’ point from which the RSPT starts costing more than the current company tax+royalties arrangement. If anything, the RSPT may keep these mines operating longer than they would have.

  20. dovif how do you explain that xstrata have now twice threatened to sack workers from that same site. Once because of the CPRS and now because of the RSPT.

    [In Monday’s question time in Federal Parliament, Mr Turnbull asked Prime Minister Kevin Rudd about a presentation Xstrata made that claimed it would fire 1000 people, close four mines and stop $7 billion in investment creating 4000 jobs if the Government’s trading scheme was implemented.

    Xstrata has found a backer in Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, who yesterday expressed support for a coal industry campaign to win further concessions under the Government’s trading scheme.

    But a former industry lobbyist and Liberal Party insider has dismissed Xstrata’s claims and said it appeared the company was preparing to blame the Government for job losses caused by a recent huge drop in demand and the plummeting coal price]

    Their is also reports that they are keeping one mine open the coal mine and closing their copper mine, in which the prices have dropped. At the start of the year they also closed they’re Canadian copper mine because of a global drop in copper prices.

    Xstrata have previous form of trying to bully the government and the libs are holding their hands.

  21. Did anybody else hear today that Obama is not coming? I heard this on Sunrise.

    Disappointing but not that big of a problem. The oil spill understandably has his attention. At least he wants to come here. Unlike Clinton, when Howard was in power, who avoided Australia and Howard, and usually sent Secretaries. Or Bush, where Howard had to almost act like he was the secret lover and made sure Bush’s appearances with him were as far away from elections as possible.

    It may actually be a good thing for Rudd. I believe that the election will be in August, so its season will begin before too long. And I know the media would just love to get a quote from Obama saying that he’d happily work with both a Rudd and Abbott government (as you expect foreign leaders to say) so they could spin it as “Surprise support for Abbott from Obama!”

    We already knew he wasn’t coming… Rudd promised it so it was clearly going to be bullshit.

    Give it a rest. Go outside and find some friends. It might make you a less miserable person!

  22. For those interested, this is a link to a live feed from the cameras on the deep water submersibles trying to stop the oil leak disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Here is a link to a blog contributed to by very smart people who know what they are looking at:

    For Diog:

    The RSPT will not cause any change to new mining activity because any proposed projects which meet required return hurdles will still meet those hurdles, as I have explained earlier. I have never met an economist who knows anything about proper project financial evaluation, in particular in mines. It isn’t in the economics syllabus. You do it in proper MBA courses, of which there are about five in Australia, and even those don’t cover such things as leveraged leasing, and how to properly take into account the changing value of money.

    The level of mathematical sophistication used in economics and econometrics is pathetic, and limited to low level algebra and statistics. No economist I have met would have the faintest idea of where to begin to try to solve differential equations, or what a Fourier or Laplace transform was, or what is meant by the Simplex algorithm.

    Its the same as the difference between you and a graduate nurse.


    Mad Dog

  23. [(I’m too busy polling all the patients here what they think of the RSPT)…]

    OH just left home to do a shift in Intensive Care. I asked her to do a poll of the patients there to see what they thought of the RSPT.

    Could have an interesting result! 😉

  24. Is for sure he is not coming I hope Mr. Beasley is working hard on this one.
    Even if he comes for just 24 hours on his own.

  25. the spectator
    “Banks are at the fulcrum of society and when they go under they have to be bailed out. I would not agree on an additional tax because of the industry structure however ie oligopoly”.

    Agree, but the problem is if you impose a levy of some sort as a means of social insurance they will just pass it on. Unfortunately, no government (either side) are prepared to tackle banks when they do the wrong thing.

    To a certain extent I agree with your remarks about taxing because of Oligopoly structure. Some oligopolistic markets are competitive, the banking one is not and hence my remarks about taxing it. Problem is you cannot win with the banks.

  26. [In late May support for the ALP is 52.5% (down 2% since the last Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted on May 22/23, 2010), just ahead of the L-NP (47.5%, up 2%) according to this week’s Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend, May 29/30, 2010.

    If a Federal Election were held today the result would be close, but with the ALP returned with a reduced majority according to this week’s Face-to-Face Morgan Poll.

    The Face-to-Face Morgan Poll shows ALP primary vote of 42% (down 0.5% from May 22/23, 2010) just ahead of the L-NP (41%, unchanged), while the Greens have dropped 2.5% to 8.5% and Family First are 1.5% (down 0.5%), in contrast to Independents/ Others up strongly to 7% (up 3.5%).]

  27. Thanks Mad Dog
    [For those interested, this is a link to a live feed from the cameras on the deep water submersibles trying to stop the oil leak disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

    This is like a Vietnam for BP…no matter what they say, anyone can click on the web and see it all gushing out for themselves

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