Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Courtesy of Ghost Who Votes on Twitter, Newspoll has Labor recovering to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred (up from 50-50 a fortnight ago), but back down two points to their 35 per cent nadir on the primary vote with the Coalition also down two points to 41 per cent. The big show is the Greens – up four to 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables from Mumble. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings have reached a new low, with approval down three points to 36 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, the news for Tony Abbott is even worse: approval down five to 37 per cent and disapproval up four to 49 per cent. All this cancels each other out on preferred prime minister, with Rudd’s lead steady on 49-33.

Also out today was the weekly Essential Research, which had Labor’s lead down slightly from 52-48 to 51-49. Both leaders’ approval ratings have plunged – Rudd’s net rating is negative for the first time. Good news for the government though with 58 per cent rating a returning of “laws similar to WorkChoices” under Tony Abbott as “likely”. Forty-five per cent express themselves “concerned”, and 43 per cent say their views are closer to the unions than to Tony Abbott against 24 per cent for the other way round. Forty-six per cent say ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 14 per cent more likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,189 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Does anyone really think the Greens will get 16% at the election? They got 7.7% in the House in 2007. If they get 10% that would be a great improvement, but I just can’t see them MORE than doubling what they got last time.

  2. The Young Lib is rehearsing for his visit to the Liberal Party pre-selection panel!

    Talk about Rudd waffling. This guy is a world beater in that department!

  3. LOL

    Greens to win how many seats based on that figure??

    Just goes to show you what happens when you have a choice between a turd sandwich and a giant douche.

    Oh dear! If it didnt have to get worse it has! Last thing we need is more Greens 🙁

  4. So no matter how disaffected people are with Rudd they just can’t bring themselves to move to Abbott. In fact they have fled from him by 2%.
    We need to have a more detailed look at the likely preference split from the Greens.

  5. It’s been a mystery to me why the Rudd Govt has not been using Maxine more to sell its messages. She is such a great communicator, as we all know, and the way she buried Cori What-his-name is a case in point.

  6. Actually not a surprise.

    Okay come election day the Greens will fall well short of 16% but if the Governmetn continues to flatline and the Liberasl continue to Mrs Palmer then the Greens may find a surge in support.

  7. [Greens to win how many seats based on that figure??]
    Depends where they get them. My guess is it is about 2.1 million votes.

  8. If this is Abbott’s Everest moment and the best he can do is 51-49 to Labor. He aint got a chance in the next election. The punters have concluded long ago, he is not a PM material and it’s the economy, period.

  9. How will Shanas spin it? 2PP up for Labor, abbott’s net satisfaction down more than rudd (9 v 6%) and unchanged PPM. Just what will he write??

  10. [Does anyone really think the Greens will get 16% at the election? ]

    It’s not impossible that they could get over 10%. There’s obviously been a big reaction on the left and among the young (much the same thing) over Rudd’s delaying of the CPRS. A chunk of Labor’s vote has decided to park itself with the Greens for a while. This has happened before. In 1984 the Nuclear Disarmament Party came from nowhere to win 7% of the Senate vote, and 10% in NSW. In 1993 the Dems polled 11%. A lot of this vote will come back to Labor when the polarising effect of the campaign happens, as it always does.

    The important thing is that the RSPT has NOT hit Labor’s vote for six as some were saying. After a fortnight of absolute bollocking in the Enemy Media, Labor is still ahead.

  11. Go the Greens!

    I’d be surprised if they got 10% at the election. I think it just shows Labor haven’t been selling themslves well lately.

  12. I was about to pan Q&A for having a singer on but she has been quite good. And by that I don’t just mean she’s better that Bernardi and the young upper class twit (remember Monty Python).

  13. Truthy The point Maxine made is if you marginalise a section of the community it will react, quite often with violance

  14. Shanna’s will go the net approval/disapproval rating of Rudd. Let’s see how News responds to the Greens. Will they attack or butter them up?

  15. I am fairly happy with those figures. Abbott is flatlining. 67% of the population continue to despise him. The Coalition has peaked. The Greens will make Oz do something a bit more sensible about AGW than is currently on the table. And we will get a Fair Mining Tax.

    Election by first week of August.

  16. But Johnny, Abbott’s net approval has fallen more than Rudd’s. And just what did Rudd do in the last fortnight to earn this drop? The ads??

  17. Bacardi Breezer (which flavour is he?) talked down the budgetary situation with some very rubbery figures.

  18. As long as the debate remains based on the environment and I will include the mining tax in this debate the Greens may see quite a big jump in support but and this is the Greens problem once the debate moved to economic management the Greens will slip back to their normal poll range.

  19. Is it a replay of the UK murdoch backed the Conservatives to the hilt only to result in a poll surge in the third party

  20. Woo! Got the 2PP right! Do I win a prize? This confirms my theory (one that Truthy et al. won’t like) that we’ve reached the ceiling of Abbott’s support as it stands – which is not good for Abbott, because the best the coalition has gotten is 51-49. Sure, another variable could change things (I’m sure that a Coalition militia is not far off) but as it stands, if this is the worst Abbott can do, Rudd will be able to sleep well tonight.

    On an aside, useless bogans in the audience are ruining Q & A tonight with their incessant frat-boy cheering and jeering. Wish somebody would kick them out, so they can go back to revving cars and burning crosses, and the panel can have a grown-ups’ conversation again.

  21. Boerwar@32

    I am fairly happy with those figures. Abbott is flatlining. 67% of the population continue to despise him. The Coalition has peaked. The Greens will make Oz do something a bit more sensible about AGW than is currently on the table. And we will get a Fair Mining Tax.

    Election by first week of August.

    Mark reilly was saying October Poll based on Mining Tax Ad Campaign running for 10 weeks.

  22. Glen@2145

    Edward VIII shouldnt have had to abdecate.

    Hitler thought that too. According to Speer, Hitler said that “His abdication was a severe loss for us”

    I dont think he’d have made the British government keep out of the war.

    If Edward had any say, it’s possible that Britain would have joined Germany in invading the USSR.

    It was unfair on George VI who ended up dying early because of the stress

    Lung cancer killed him, though he probably smoked more because of stress. Incidentally, while many smoke to ease stress/anxiety, smoking doesn’t actually reduce it. It makes it worse.

  23. Andrew,

    I know but he’ll ignore Abbott’s figures. ETS continues to piss off the young voters and the ad campaign is upsetting all voters. It really was a dumb move politically. They really did not need to do it as they were winning it. They could of relied on Clive Palmer to turn the tide.

  24. Bernardi’s burqa rant was nothing but trying to appeal to xenophobia. Good on the rest of the panel (including Grady) for smacking him back down as the antithesis of freedom and liberty.

  25. ” you should be there more often”

    Cory B to Maxine Mc – Q & A 31/5/2010

    Oh god I’m still laughing, that was just increadible…my sides are splitting. I didn’t know he was that funny

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