Morgan: 52.5-47.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.

Besides which:

• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.

• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.

• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.

• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.

• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.

• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.

• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.

• UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

584 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5”

Comments Page 3 of 12
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  1. There is a need to reset the mining debate.

    The most commoby accepted assumption seems to be that more mining is automatically good. I have strong doubts.

    We consume far too much. We emit far too much CO2 per capita. If there is a reduction in the rate of mining would not that be a good start in cutting our potential emissions? If the effect of the RSPT is to raise the global price of coal would not that be good? If the effect is to reduce the forthcoming skills bottleneck, would not that be good? And, if the effect is that future generations still have something to dig up and seel, wouldn’t that be good?

    And if we keep building employment based on digging up stuff, where will all those jobs go when the stuff is gone? Wouldn’t it be better to start building jobs in other sectors, the ones that are currently disadvantaged by the high dollar underpinned by mining exports?

    It is like we are on an insane roller coaster. We don’t want the roller coaster to stop. And we don’t want to get off it. Instead we are arguing about the best way to make it go faster.

  2. [Toronto’s Globe and Mail newspaper has reported that Rio Tinto has approved an expansion of its iron ore activities in Canada, with an initial investment of US$400 million.]

    Oh for cruds sake. Canada has crap iron ore, it has about a years worth of Australian exports in reserve, it is inaccesible for 8 months a year.

  4. [Given his logic that the tax is “good” for the miners, Mr Rudd must be deeply confused as to why no other sector is lining up for an additional 40 per cent tax slug to underpin their future growth.”]
    Page 4 of the Liberal Party Handbook dovif?

  5. Johnny – the miners have got to be the next lot we tax to buggery. I mean, it’s not like they can even threaten to go offshore.

  7. ruawake
    [Who let xstrata take over MIM ?]
    MIMs was taken over in 2003. The transaction would have required Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approval by the Commonwealth Treasurer – one P Costello.

    One of the major shareholders, Platinum Investment management, was quite vociferous in its opposition, but eventually the takeover was successful.

    Like most takeovers I guess, the cause was a value assessment by the shareholders. Very unfortunatley in this case, it proved to be an absolute bargain buy (Platinum was very correct), and shareholders had a very myopic, wrong view on value. On the other hand, in my opninion, MIMs was one of the worst managed companies in Australia (and that is saying something) and was a serial disappointment to investors (I was a shareholder in the 90s, so maybe biased ;-))

  8. Why in 1987 were the writs issued on 5 June for a 14 July election? With terms starting 1 July 1987.

    Or have I missed part of a thread?

  9. rosa

    They need to be taxed because they are making a killing from a non-renewable resource that is owned by the community. They don’t have to be taxed to buggery, just a fair rate of 40%. That wealth could then be used to promote growth in the future for our kids, grandkids etc. Norway style.

  10. BH

    [Scorps 3183 last thread – Best wishes for your OH and to you]

    Thanks BH. Things are looking pretty good at the moment, OH has returned to work (4th shift back today) but is finding it a bit hard going back early as she is probably still not properly recovered.

    She is only tiny and has reduced strength in her right arm from the surgery and having lymph nodes removed from under her arm. Unfortunately, there are some very large patients in our hospitals now.

  11. Johnny B
    [Story about NAB and ANZ wanting to merge, but Swann and Rudd prevented it. So do we trust big bankers and big miners ?]
    Laocoon’s left field prediction…<4 months after a Labor election win, Ahmed Fahour will be announcing AustPost Bank (maybe in JV with ING)

  14. You reckon Rudd wrapping himself in a flag would be “powerful stuff”? Seriously?

    (You’ve got to get out more…)

    And here’s what Big Energy can do if they’re too greedy to manage their risk properly: a tragedy.

  16. [Why in 1987 were the writs issued on 5 June for a 14 July election? With terms starting 1 July 1987.]

    That was a double dissolution, so the new Senators took their seats straight away.

  17. [You reckon Rudd wrapping himself in a flag would be “powerful stuff”? Seriously?]
    Of course it would be. Why not?

  18. From Jock’s Journal – The Rednecks will be pleased:

    Alan Jones can now be heard in South East Queensland for the first time. His program airs 11am to noon on Moreton Bay’s radio station, 101.5FM. The community station based in Caboolture has exclusive rights to the program in an area from Brisbane to the Sunshine Coast. Also former ABC TV television and radio news journalist Andrew Swanton has recently started work at the station as editor of their local news.

     http://www.jocksjournal.com/&nbsp;

  19. Gary@117

    You reckon Rudd wrapping himself in a flag would be “powerful stuff”? Seriously?

    Of course it would be. Why not?

    Except he’ll be compared to a certian other Quueenslander who did the same thing.

     

  20. JohnnyB

    Predication is based on a geneal view of industry structure (no inside insight). Banking sector has clearly become more highly concentrated with mergers domestically and exit of offshore parties. This, in part, contributes to super normal profits, at the expense of broader community welfare. Cant really do a ACCC action; so government would encourage new competition

    Aust Post has wonderful physical distribution infrastructure. New boss has the background. JV with ING would tie in with ready made management expertise + internet distribution capability, and would be nice easing out of Oz by ING (they cant possibly want to stay here given restructuring issues in Netherlands).

  21. [OH has returned to work (4th shift back today) but is finding it a bit hard going back early as she is probably still not properly recovered.]

    IC nurses are the salt of the earth – saved my OH twice. Is she able to ask for lighter duties. A petite person lifting heavy patients would come under OH&S wouldn’t it?

  22. Frank

    Just checked 101.5FM does not have the signal strength to make it to Coolum on the Sunshine Coast. 🙂

  23. Rio Tinto restarts Canada iron-ore expansion

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/rio-tinto-restarts-canada-iron-ore-expansion-2010-05-06

    Dovif to get it in perspective RIO are talking an expansion in Canada to 26-million tons a year.
    The current capacity of Rio in the Pilbara is 220 million tons and growing.
    In Australia we have much lower extraction cost (we are the only country with significant channel iron deposits) better infrastructure, better weather, no C-300 Bill ….you get the point

    They aint going anywhere.

  24. [Except he’ll be compared to a certian other Quueenslander who did the same thing.]
    And in Queensland that’s a bad thing? We know what they’re like up there.

  26. [Alan Jones can now be heard in South East Queensland for the first time. ]

    Go exactly what he wanted just before an election altho 2SM goes up through there and they are all heavily Nat/Lib pushers too.

  27. [Why in 1987 were the writs issued on 5 June for a 14 July election? With terms starting 1 July 1987.]

    It’s different for double dissolutions, which is what happened in 1987. Here is the wording from s 13. The first sentence refers to half-Senate elections, and “the election” is to be understood as a period starting with the issue of the writs. “The election next after any dissolution of the Senate” refers to a double dissolution, and “the day of his (sic) election” is the operative phrase.

    [The election to fill vacant places shall be made within one year before the places are to become vacant.

    For the purposes of this section the term of service of a senator shall be taken to begin on the first day of July following the day of his election, except in the cases of the first election and of the election next after any dissolution of the Senate, when it shall be taken to begin on the first day of July preceding the day of his election.]

  29. The good news buried in the Morgan poll is that consumer confidence appears to have either bottomed or bounced a statistically insignificant amount.

  32. Should we be talking about ‘Rudd the Unlucky’?

    1. GFC
    2. Fielding controlling the BOP in the Senate
    3. US Health requires Obama’s close attention.
    4. The Gulf Oil spill requires Obama’s close attention.
    5. Saddled with, at best, a holding operation in a losing war.
    6. Push factors for asylum seekers from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.
    7. Most of the first years were at the tail end of a massive drought.

  33. [We know what they’re like up there.]

    We do need to be nice to Queenslanders for the next few months, because they’re holding a large bunch of marginals hostage. Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Flynn, Hinkler, Dickson, Longman, Petrie, Ryan, Moreton, Bonner, Forde, Bowman, Blair, Wright.

  36. Some one has made the comment on another site about Julia and her Hounds tooth
    jacket yesterday.

    Well to whom it may concern. I buy my fabric from New York and make my own clothes. I buy designer fabrics and guess what who ever you are its all the rage in New York.
    LETS ALL CALL JULIA GILLARD OUR DEP PM THE TREND SETTER and see how they like that.

    onya Julia.p.s. i had a purple one just like that when i was 24 so goes around comes around.

    some people have nothing in their heads if they even thought of that.

  38. If you got out more, you’d realise that mawkish displays of news-cycle patriotism were degrading for a person pretending to be a leader…

    Having said that, I thought Pauline was very impressive draped in the Queen’s coverlet.

  39. [IC nurses are the salt of the earth – saved my OH twice. Is she able to ask for lighter duties. A petite person lifting heavy patients would come under OH&S wouldn’t it?]

    BH, unfortunately she works in pool which means she can be asked to work in any section of the hospital, A&E, IC, Mental Health, Maternity and Medical Ward,Surgical Ward. The latter two often involve quite physical exertion although there is some physical assistance and lifting devices there to help. Sometimes!!!

    It will be unfortunate if they push her too hard and she has to give up her job as she is a very experienced nurse and I don’t think Queensland Health has enough of them art the best of times.

    Thanks to the others for their best wishes. Much appreciated on behalf of the OH but I’m OK.

  40. There have been a few rumbles around the theme of consumer confidence going down, a bit of slack in retail and a bit of a hiss of deflating pressure from housing. Coupled with yet another mini-hammering on the world’s stock exchanges.

    These are all non-specific to the Rudd Government. But I intuit that they might well be related to the downward trends in polls.

  42. Flag wavers get up my nose big time, every time.

    It is at least a testable hypothesis that Howie lost votes in ethnic seats because of his aggressive linking of nationalism, patriotism, ethnicism and dog whistling.

  43. Bushfire Bill
    Agree! Over the last decade the populace were encouraged to become aspirational millionaires. Buy shares, buy investment houses. Borrow, borrow, borrow to make money. We have entangled our whole being around what we want, greed that we have lost sight of the obvious. We are servants to our committments.
    This has stripped the larrikan, the courageous from our national identity.
    The corporations have us exactly where they need us. Completely dependant & fearful. Perfect candidates to fight on the front line & unseat a government that is not corporate compliant.

  44. [In other words, Qld will decide the next Fed Govt.]

    The only “loss” I can see is Herbert. But seeing it is already held by the coalition its not really a loss.

    The LNP in Qld are eating each other alive, it will only get worse when policies are released. So Herbert may also be a real gain.

    Remember there are about 150,000 “asylum seekers” or internal migrants who have moved to SE Qld since the last election. A large proportion are “tradies” why do you think Rudd keeps banging on about “chalkies” ooops “chippies”.

  46. [If you got out more, you’d realise that mawkish displays of news-cycle patriotism were degrading for a person pretending to be a leader…]
    I get out enough to know that it didn’t do Howie much harm in waving the flag.

  47. [A statement of principle from a one-eyed functionary: Not losing votes is all that counts.]
    The original statement was said with that in mind and you refuted that would be the case.

  49. [Flag wavers get up my nose big time, every time.]
    Skip McCoy:
    [You boys are talking to the wrong corner. I’m just a guy keeping my hands in my own pockets.]
    FBI Agent Zara:
    [If you refuse to cooperate you’ll be as guilty as the traitors who gave Stalin the A-bomb.]
    Skip McCoy:
    [Are you waving the flag at me?]
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0046187/quotes

  50. [The only “loss” I can see is Herbert. But seeing it is already held by the coalition its not really a loss.]
    Ryan could conceivably be a gain if it gets very messy?

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