Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

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  1. [Yes, Labor should play this advert again during the election:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zqW8dhrHrE

    Also Abbott’s record as health minister was very poor, this should be constantly compared and contrasted with Labor’s reforms in this area.]

    Quite so, and THIS, fellow bludgers, is why Rudd has been willing to incur so much odium to “clear the decks” of issues like the ETS, so that the election will be fought on the issues of his choice, namely:

    * Labor’s management of the economy
    * Rudd’s health plan v Abbott’s record as health minister
    * Abbott’s record on WorkChoices

    Once the campaign starts and the focus is on these three issues, the wisdom of Rudd’s strategy will become clear.

  2. [Type in “headache’ and along with the Wikipedia reference, up pops a couple of YouTube clips and a few news articles about Kevin Rudd’s financial woes, you’ll find information on conditions caused by everything from migraines to stress, diet, malaria, head injury and brain tumours. ]

    what where they trying to tell the reader here, no wonder we stopped getting that publication some time ago. did not realise it was murdoch then

    I wonder how the sales of the woman’s weekly are, i wonder any one buys them
    my dear daughters decided i needed i and others when hos, i hate to tell them but they all went in the bin unread. I hope some one from news limited notices this.
    And when they decided to put whats his name on the last page that was the end for
    me, i use to cheat and look at in a que, but now i just tell the girl in the check out, why i dont buy it.

  3. OK, so Bernard Keane in Crikey is shirty today about the Govt’s advertising the mining tax but he did link this which can be thrown back in the face of the Oppn. In the heat of trying to win the 2007 election a few words were said by Kev that may have needed a little less definition but the Oppn cannot escape so easily by calling Kev politically corrupt.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/03/13/liberal-mates-milked-millions-from-howards-ad-bonanza/?source=cmailer

  4. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJz3C3EPQvE&NR=1]

    now i suggest visitors to this site watch this

    v e r y I n t e rrrrrrrr es ting

  6. Briefly
    [The RBA should be cutting rates. There are plenty of sugns of a slowdown in activity in all the main economies, which will certainly have a spill-over for ours.]
    ShowsOn
    [But the RBA has to take into account what is happening here now, and today inflation was announced as being 0.1% higher, even taking into account the increase to tobacco tax.]
    I agree with briefly on this one and hope the RBA doesn’t just go on the inflation figure. That data tends to be a lag of what is really happening in the economy.

  7. [I agree with briefly on this one and hope the RBA doesn’t just go on the inflation figure.]
    I see no reason for them to cut rates, they are only back to what is a normal level.

  9. I wonder how the sales of the woman’s weekly are, i wonder any one buys them

    my say
    I don’t know about regular sales but a while back when they did a story on Therese Rein apparently they almost sold out straight away 😉

  11. see how much more intelligent the debate is here when trolls like bob and Truthy aren’t here? William should ban both of them IMHO. (I concede that Frank C is very annoying, too, but his heart’s in the right place.)

  13. BH, I don’t think Essential do PPM, they just have approval/disapproval ratings.
    We’ll have to wait for Newspoll for PPM

  14. re: inflation and the RBA decision on interest rates – I’m pretty confident that the RBA are taking a well rounded (and long) view of this. Interestingly, if the huff and puff about tapering off activity in the mining sector due to the RSPT is considered legit by the RBA then they will be probably more willing to hold or cut interest rates giving the rest of the economy some breathing room.

  17. [William should ban both of them IMHO. (I concede that Frank C is very annoying, too, but his heart’s in the right place.)]

    Gotcha. Labor trolls okay – Liberal and Greens trolls not okay.

  19. [I don’t know about regular sales but a while back when they did a story on Therese Rein apparently they almost sold out straight away ]

    yes i missed that one as i did want to get it because of Theresa
    wasn’t she beautiful as a bride and still is of course.
    what a beautiful couple they make, as you can tell vera i love them both dearly

    Mr. Rudd can do no wrong in my eyes, after the 11 years of Howard,

    I get so annoyed when people only see the negatives we are all human, and if we did not makes mistakes well then we would not be normal human beings.

    The australian people do not know how lucky they are.

    This may surprise you had to make a phone call this morning re business and the person told me i should call back in a couple of hours as their w.a. office was not open.
    When i said o w.a. the people that do not want the tax

    Quess what she said she said ‘ WHAT TAX’, so i went on to tell her all about it, and warned her of the worry re tone, and when i explained the supper part of the tax for here she said WOW.
    so you see some people do not take any notice of any thing.
    But i think work choices is a different story.

  20. [Gotcha. Labor trolls okay – Liberal and Greens trolls not okay.]

    Yes, fair enough, William. I would accept all three of them getting severe warnings to stop troll-type posts, to be followed by suspension if there are further outbursts.

  21. [QT starts with Pink Batts!!]

    Le shock.

    Although I suppose I would’ve predicted another question, for instance on improper advertising arrangements.

  23. [stop troll-type posts, to be followed by suspension if there are further outbursts]

    now its none of my business because i am new here
    but if any one it has to be gp his language is not good and just mostly throws in one liners.

  25. [Gotcha. Labor trolls okay – Liberal and Greens trolls not okay.]

    Better not allow the People’s Front of Judea either….

    Or is that the Judean People’s Front?

  28. [I would accept all three of them getting severe warnings to stop troll-type posts, to be followed by suspension if there are further outbursts.]
    If all the trolls get banned (or suspended) then I’d have no one left to troll.

  31. One suspects that Clive Palmer is not rating well in focus groups (what a surprise). Rudd has referenced him by name twice already – wtte Abbott is public mouthpiece of Clive Palmer

    Wonder how his son’s polling is going?

  33. [QT starts with Pink Batts!!]

    I long ago gave up trying to make sense of the opposition’s QT tactics.

  34. Essential’s just bouncing around that 51-49 area. It looks from the approval figures for both Rudd and Abbott that either people are getting fed up with both of them, or preferences are hardening around political orientation.

    It still looks to me as if the Coalition are just not cutting through. They can’t lift that primary vote. And I still think that’s because they’re not actually offering anything to voters. So we’ve got one party with policies they’re selling badly or are proving unpopular, and another who are still giving us nothing. Either Labor’s resources tax will gain favour over time, dragging all their other policies up in approval with it, or the Coalition will come up with some good policies and pick up some primary vote. Or neither, which in the short term seems likeliest.

    I would have thought, after what we heard from Insiders, that Labor would have fallen 5 points.

  36. 3Q in a row from Abbott! Perhaps the comments on him being a wimp in not asking more questions hit home (again, what a surprise)

  38. [Whatever happened to the young master Peter Young? ]

    He’s probably involved in a lengthy debate on another site with Ron and Bob1234! 😉

  43. Speaking of Therese, the scum party are taking cheap shots at her again.

    A Liberal senator has been accused of trying to cast a “slur” on the prime minister’s wife during a parliamentary hearing.

    Mitch Fifield, during a Senate estimates hearing on Monday, questioned commonwealth government officials about Therese Rein’s role in the development of a policy that would require all new homes be disability-friendly.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/senator-accused-of-slurring-pms-wife-20100531-wpvq.html

  47. good ness harry s on the ball today..
    why did morrison get sent out and what did pyne say the p.m. just stopped talking he must of heard it

  48. Aguirre – Aristotle has a link further back to an Age article which indicates that Tony Abbott is (at this point in the electoral cycle) the most unpopular opposition leader in 20 years.
    Of course Rudd is going to limp home with a wet sail (all PMs do), but I’m pretty sure he will limp home.

  50. [Mr Speaker is gonna be tuff today – mass reds. ]
    What Morrison did was wrong on two major points. It wasn’t a point of order AND it was debate. It’s pretty standard for an MP to be kicked immediately for breaking two rules at once.

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