Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. [An excellent reality check.]

    Certainly poles apart from Insiders on Sunday. You could hardly have got a gloomier outlook for Labor. By the end of it many viewers must have concluded that the government is gone.

  3. rosa

    NYRB has oodles of book ads which must cost plenty. I always buy at least one book based on what I read per issue. They had a review of three books on the Dreyfus Affair in the last issue.

  4. Watching Wilson Tuckey speak on the paid parental leave bill. He may be a ratbag, but he is making a 20 minute speech, and speaking relevantly to the bill, entirely without notes. Not many MPs can do that.

  6. Interesting question: Are the mining coy’s ads tax deductible (so we are all paying for them). I be they are.

    Should this be mentioned to Paul Howie?

  7. Vera,
    I’m glad you’re back and hopefully feeling better. I’m sure you were feeling pretty good at around 4.45pm yesterday afternoon. A little reminder for you
    Rabbitoh hit

    Do they earn their pay more in the NRL or AFL? This happened to this particular Penrith player about five times, although the others did not have the ferocity of this one.

  8. my say,

    Essential Research conducts its polling across two weeks. William estimates that last week’s sample was 52-48 to Labor, as was the overall result. If Labor’s lead is down 51-49 overall (the best case scenario from Speers’s post), that puts things at 50-50 for this week’s sample.

  9. Referring the to ABS employment stats again.

    p34
    http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/9E0CFE203CFECA18CA2576F700154B6B/$File/61050_apr%202010.pdf

    In August 2008 employment in construction was 989,800 and dropped to 979,500 by November 2009 and slightly up by Feb 2010.

    So it looks like the stimulus package (in particular the BER) worked better than could ever have been imagined – where employment numbers help up in such a critical industry where there are obvious economic and labour market flow on effects.

    Some of this data needs to see the light of day.

  10. [Do they earn their pay more in the NRL or AFL?]

    They sure earn it differently. But the 2010 figures for average earnings in 1st grade squads are about 170K in the NRL and about 235K in the AFL. But while Inglis and Thurston could make 500-600K in the NRL, apparently the Gold Coast recently offered Ablett 1.6 million.

  13. The RBA should be cutting rates. There are plenty of sugns of a slowdown in activity in all the main economies, which will certainly have a spill-over for ours.

    [May 31 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s industrial production increased less than economists forecast in April, the latest sign that the economic recovery may be losing momentum.

    Factoryoutput rose 1.3 percent from March, when it gained 1.2 percent, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.5 percent increase.

    Manufacturers plan to increase production at a slower pace in May and June, today’s report showed, indicating they anticipate demand from abroad to cool. Data last week showed the export-led recovery has been slow to spread to consumers: the unemployment rate rose in April, job prospects worsened and household spending and consumer prices fell.]

  14. [The RBA should be cutting rates. There are plenty of sugns of a slowdown in activity in all the main economies, which will certainly have a spill-over for ours.]
    But the RBA has to take into account what is happening here now, and today inflation was announced as being 0.1% higher, even taking into account the increase to tobacco tax.

    Also, if the RBA goes from putting rates up, to cutting them. Then that could spook the market. It would be better if the RBA just leaves them the same for a couple of months and sees what happens.

  15. Pancho,
    I was at that game. After full time, they had officials walking around filling up plastic bags with Trent Waterhouse’s ribs. I don’t care how much more they get paid but I doubt that a single AFL player – this year – has absorbed a collision like that one. The poor bugger later got another one from David Taylor, who goes by the name of “Coal Train”. Trent will be reassembled later today.

  16. [I don’t care how much more they get paid but I doubt that a single AFL player – this year – has absorbed a collision like that one.]

    That’s because AFL is a game of skill rather than brute force.

  18. Hey Roy, preaching to the converted here. I have a (patchy) history of baiting all the AFL love on here – was only noting figures for context, and cos I’d been sent them a little while ago. No doubt they will change in 2013 with the new TV agreements, seeing as the NRL now consistently outrates the AFL.

    And for what it’s worth, I don’t rate Dave Taylor at all. He’s a Willie Mason clone, lurking in the centres and trying to run over halves. If you’re that size (and incidentally look like a centurion complete with helmet: ) you should be in the middle taking some pressure off Asotasi.

  23. #1456

    [Pancho,
    I was at that game. After full time, they had officials walking around filling up plastic bags with Trent Waterhouse’s ribs. I don’t care how much more they get paid but I doubt that a single AFL player – this year – has absorbed a collision like that one. The poor bugger later got another one from David Taylor, who goes by the name of “Coal Train”. Trent will be reassembled later today.]

    Well you dont know much about AFL.

    The myth that AFL players dont take hard hits is propogated by the RL supporters who have no idea about AFL.

    I was born and bred in Sydney, followed the Bulldogs since childhood, went to almost every match at Belmore, was at the club the night we won the 1980 GF and celebrated with the supporters.

    I moved to Melbourne in 1988 not understanding how Aussie Rules was really played. the fact that there is no offside rule means you can be hit from any angle, usually with your ribs exposed as you have your arms in the air attempting to mark the ball. Rugby players (League and Union) are usually ready for the impact as it is a confrontational game with offside.

    League may look tougher, but unless you actually know how AFL works and see it live, you will live in this ignorance for years. I have seen harder hits in AFL then ever in League.

    Doesn’t mean one is tougher than the other.

    Personally I believe I know which game is better.

  24. [You’ll have to explain what you mean.]
    He means that the ALP was originally set up to defend the interests of rugby league players and their families.

  25. Roy
    Yea! Go the Bunnies! Your namesake was having injury troubles again though.
    David Boyle my soon to be local MP (hoping!) was another tough Bunny. Had a few good state of origin hits if I remember correctly.

  26. [Benji
    Posted Monday, May 31, 2010 at 1:00 pm | Permalink
    Anymore news on the Essential poll?]
    No good news it seems
    [Bob Katter’s Hat
    Posted Monday, May 31, 2010 at 12:04 pm | Permalink
    From Twatter- David_Speers: Essential Poll shows Labor dropping on 2PP and Rudd’s disapproval higher than approval for first time.]

  27. Essential Research: 51-49. Both leaders’ approval ratings have plunged – Rudd’s net rating is negative for the first time. Good news for the government though with 58 per cent rating a returning of “laws similar to WorkChoices” under Tony Abbott as “likely”. Forty-five per cent express themselves “concerned”, and 43 per cent say their views are closer to the unions than to Tony Abbott against 24 per cent for the other way round. Forty-six per cent say ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 14 per cent more likely.

  28. [46 per cent say ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 14 per cent more likely]
    That is telling.

  29. Links between rugby league and the ALP.

    Just off the top of my head, Harry Hoyle was a founder of NSW Labor in the 1890s, and (along with Victor Trumper and JJ Giltinan) a founder of league. I also think he was a Federal Labor candidate in 1910 and 13. Billy Hughes was the founding patron of Glebe. J.C. Watson was the founding patron of Souths. Arch Fadden was the founding league sec of Queensland Rugby League. Your lot were caught up in it from the beginning. So sad when youth lose their roots…

  30. “Your namesake was having injury troubles again though”

    Vera,
    What is it THIS time? He seems to be hurt all the time lately. But he went well yesterday.

    Re Boyle, he certainly was a hard nut. If he gets in – and I hope he does – he will have the widest nose in parliament.

  31. Games involving the ever so culturally elevated practice of chasing a piece of inflated dead pig skin from one end of a large lawn, kicking it or placing it between 2 or 4 upright white sticks, only to turn around and run back the other way, may as well be a gladiatorial as possible. Hell I think they should be armed, might even be interesting then, AND more young players would get a turn. 😉

  33. Roy
    Asatasi went off with a supposed corked thigh according to the commentators but came back on after the Panthers got to within 8 points.

  34. [Billy Hughes was the founding patron of Glebe. ]
    He is also the biggest rat of all time, so that’s a good reason for ALP supporters not to follow rugby league. 😛

  35. [Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen back close to the level of the March poll – which was his lowest recorded. 35% approve (down 4%) of
    the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% disapprove (up 7%).
    72% of Liberal/National voters approve and 17% disapprove. 77% of Labor voters disapprove and 15% approve.
    The only group showing net approval was people aged 65+ (52% approve/42% disapprove).]
    Rudd’s popularity maybe on the wane but it sure helps when your opponents is as well.

  38. If Kevin Rudd wins this election, it won’t be for the lack of effort by the MSM to try and derail it.

    I was struck by the infiltration into alternate media such as the mention by someone the other day about the blatant anti-Rudd comments included in a piece in the Australian Woman’s Weekly.

    When reading a piece in the August 2009 edition of the Readers Digest, I found another sly little dig that was included in an article about self diagnosis via the internet. Exactly what Kevin Rudd could have to do with that, I can’t imagine. It wouldn’t surprise me if there is not scores of examples of this in virtually every publication that is read by the cross-section of the voting public. This is the quote.

    [Type in “headache’ and along with the Wikipedia reference, up pops a couple of YouTube clips and a few news articles about Kevin Rudd’s financial woes, you’ll find information on conditions caused by everything from migraines to stress, diet, malaria, head injury and brain tumours. ]

    Of course the then head of the AMA, Rosanna Capolingua gets numerous favourable mentions.

    The piece was written by a Helen Signy. I wonder if anyone has any info on this lady at all? She is probably employed by the AMA?

  39. In Vic, SA, WA and Tas there were many ALP figures involved in Australian Rules football clubs, particularly in working class clubs like Collingwood, Richmond, Port Melbourne and Port Adelaide. Arthur Calwell, to take just one example, was involved with North Melbourne for over 50 years and was the club’s first life member.

  40. Gary – you’d expect a PM’s popularity to be one long slide. As LJB said when he won the 1964 election: “I’ve got to move fast because, from now on, every day I’m in office I’ll be losing votes” (or words to that effect).

    But Tone should be worried that he’s not building his popularity as an election approaches.

    Further the 51 – 49 split on TPP shows, once again, that labor has put a halt to its slide.

  42. This is how vacuous House of Representatives debate has become. Joanna Gash:
    [We need to encourage Australians to continue to make Australia what it is.]

  43. I think 51-49 is actually quite good given the bollocking Rudd has taken in the media over the past couple of weeks. I expect Newspoll will be much the same.

    I have been saying all year that fear of WorkChoices II is the sleeper issue in this election and now I have been proved right. It is poison for the Libs, and is the issue Abbott can’t get away from given his record and his obvious belief that WC was right. He’s not a good enough liar to convincingly pretend otherwise.

  45. My say:

    The Prime Minister’s total approval rating has fallen 5% to 41%, and his disapproval rating has increased 5% to 47%. For the first time, Rudd has a net disapproval rating of 6%.
    Abbott has suffered an even bigger blow-out in voter disapproval. In the same period, which coincided with Abbott’s brain snaps on talkback radio and the 7.30 Report, his approval rating has fallen 4% to 35% and disapproval went up 7% to 50%.

  46. [Interesting question: Are the mining coy’s ads tax deductible (so we are all paying for them).]

    Yes. We know this because Bob Brown is outraged by it and, naturally, will move in the Senate to put a stop to it forthwith.

  47. [It is poison for the Libs, and is the issue Abbott can’t get away from given his record and his obvious belief that WC was right. ]
    Yes, Labor should play this advert again during the election:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zqW8dhrHrE

    Also Abbott’s record as health minister was very poor, this should be constantly compared and contrasted with Labor’s reforms in this area.

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