The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
Laocoon, TheOz has had it in for Fairfax broadsheets for yonks! Some of its Battle of the Broadsheets bile is the result of Fairfax’s much better print & online editions. Not that Fairfax doesn’t have serious problems, mainly because it is a broadsheet + country company, with falling ad revenue. OTOH NewsLtd is a tabloid company with one broadsheet and a megarich owner prepared to bankroll it as a personal extravagance. The Battle of the Broadshets has always been about Age & SMH prestige v TheOz.
I believe Fairfax online has far more readers than Oz Online, does better on advertising & has for some time. It’s far more focused on the Gens X & Y, irrespective of PolParty – somewhat more “tabloidish” online (more crime, celebrity gossip etc) than the broadsheet editions which appeal to an older, less tabliod-friendly demographic. The Oz online has made no real effort to capture any demographic other than preInternet GenBoomer & GenBlue, or any non-Tory readership.
The relative numbers on last week’s AS polls said it all, with Fairfax running at eight or more times TheOz’s responses – almost 40 thou to TheOz’s just over 4 thou; moreover, Fairfax ran almost 3 to 1 against Abbott’s policy, not TheOz’s 2 to 1 for. Sadly, however, with the revenue from individual online ads plummeting, much greater online readership doesn’t translate into “rivers of gold” (esp “Classified” & Gov) revenue.
Most Oz “journos” are old Tory Opinionistas rather than serious investigative journos, with a couple of “real” balanced journos (eg George Megalogenis). Fairfax journos – and most are journos not opinionstas – cover the range of political opinions from Miranda Liberal Leaders Can Do No Wrong Devine, through Michelle seriously miffed Grattan to Shaun Carey & Peter Hartcher. Additionally, it uses more occasional pieces from literate non-journos, experts as well as and free-lance writers.
Oddly, Murdoch believes iPad will appeal to those who like their online newspapers to look like print newspapers, but Oldies with aging eyes which can no longer read the print versions (like mine) can zoom them. And it’d have to be Oldies. Computer-literate iPad users have been reading online versions almost all of this century – and online navigation is far better!
Gittins article is spot on today particularly the comments retrospectivity etc.
[Luckily for me, I gave up reading The Australian at least 15 years ago, and have not watched Insiders more than twice in the last three years. My serenity is not complete, but I’m slowly getting there….]
I’m glad we agree on something, briefly. I’ve never watched Insiders at all, in fact I don’t own a TV, and my serenity is quite awesome to behold. Ommmmm…
Psephos,
Didn’t you say you turned off the Melbourne game last Saturday. Were you down the local or at a mates?
[The Sodden Leathers, Footy, Boots. The Woolly Jumpers. Who are you anyway, BH?]
CrikeyWhitey@1325 – an old duck whose heritage is closely tied to Glenelg from 1836 (think winery) and the Bay Oval since the Tiges inception. Family all tied up with it from its inception on and off the field. Still check their website every week and miss ‘2,4,6,8 who do we appreciate, Tigers’!! Dem were the days.
Agree with you that players need the short, short, shorts back without the daggy looking stretchy stuff hanging down. Swannies fanatic now tho so that mob are all gorgeous as is Roosey.
Now in NSW trying to get this marginal seat changed to Labor in 2010 come hell r high water.
Interesting comments by Turnbull yesterday – I’d love to be at the meeting this morning when he fronts Scott Morrison who knows nothing except how to look out for his own skin. Perhaps David Clarke was right about Morrison all along.
[Didn’t you say you turned off the Melbourne game last Saturday. Were you down the local or at a mates?]
I was listening to 774 through my computer.
[Nooooooooooooooooo! Enough of the apologising already. He’s done too much of that, especially for things he didn’t need to apologise for, indeed should have been taking credit for such as insulation. Anymore of it and he’ll apologise himself out of a job.]
morewest – Agree with that. I’ve had it with the apologies. Get out there Kev and sell the positives of it. Front up with as much bluster as Howard did cos the mob thought he was strong when he did that. Stupid, I know, but that’s how it works.
Abbott hasn’t cut through for nothing – most of what he says is false anyway so point it out loudly.
[I’ve never watched Insiders at all, in fact I don’t own a TV, and my serenity is quite awesome to behold. Ommmmm…]
Psephos – it’s good for your serenity but how do you keep abreast of what’s going on and being said about your side. HasAbbott has been allowed to coast along so well for the past few months because you all thought he’d hurt himself.
BTW – heard Abetz on AM talking about a Senate Committee into the mining tax advertising. If it goes head I hope you can get the 11.5 years’ worth of advertising included in it.
Hmm, you have to watch/read things that you disagree with or that infuriate you else you end up insular. Pays to know ones enemy, how they think and what drives them. How else do you devise a strategy to cut through?
As for the need for more apologies, why? It just gets spun as weakness and admission of failure. It worked for a while up here for Beattie, but that I think was more the novelty factor, people are way too cynical for it to work anymore.
Labor just needs to get out the hatchets, they have a decided lack of quality brawlers and their marketing team is crap. Playing nice just won’t work.
Yup, Ross Gittins has basically nailed it. It’s also wonderful that someone has finally realised how Marius Bloopers and the rest of the miners have been perverting the word “retrospective”.
As Gittins points out, this isn’t just about a tax, its about the sovereignty of our government and its capacity to make big reforms, and I’m pretty confident that most of the Australian electorate “get” that (even if they don’t like the tax).
In today’s SMH, Philip Coorey basically repeats Hartcher’s line that Labor is happy to be fighting the mining companies.
Think how depressing it would be if Labor hadn’t got into this fight. Rudd would have been smeared as a jelly-back over the ETS. Now it’s impossible for the papers to call him weak and inconsistent.
The ad campaign is a good idea at so many levels. For a start, there is a big difference between running a campaign against huge multinationals trying to corrupt our democracy with money and running an ad campaign against Australian workers. It’s also very important because it reinforces the message that the government isn’t going to back down. After all, it can hardly spend $38 million on an advertising campaign and then roll over.
[That being said, Labor shouldn’t kid themselves that it gives them an excuse to behave cynically. The advertising spend does break a Rudd promise, which he needs to apologise for and keep pointing out that such spending is still incomparably less than John Howard’s was.]
That’s crap.
[Labor just needs to get out the hatchets, they have a decided lack of quality brawlers and their marketing team is crap. Playing nice just won’t work.]
Correct. No apologies, just get out there and face them head on. Stand up to these do anything, say anything bastards.
BH – Sounds like Abetz is making another great tactical call – like the decision to call Ken Henry to give evidence about the mining tax. The man is a marvel.
From Bloomberg…..As has been remarked here occasionally, the slide in the Government’s popularity has followed the tightening of rates. One thing is for sure, money in general in the economy is especially squeezed lately…..
[Australia’s economy, which skirted last year’s global recession and surged in the final three months of 2009, shows signs of slowing as higher borrowing costs and the end of government stimulus weigh on domestic demand. First-quarter GDP figures will be published at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney on June 2.
“It’s now clear that the Reserve Bank should have left rates on hold in May and arguably in April,” said Craig James, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “And it’s not just the volatility on global markets. The one common element across businesses is the reluctance to spend.”
‘Rapid Deterioration’
Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd., Australia’s No. 2 carrier, cut its profit forecast last week on a “rapid deterioration” in leisure travel and rising industrywide capacity.
Reports to be released ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision will show retail sales increased 0.3 percent in April, matching the weakest growth rate in a year, and building approvals fell for the third month in four, analysts forecast. Those figures will be published at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.
The nation’s property market, which surged 20 percent in the year to March 31, is also showing signs of weakening. Home- loan approvals dropped 25 percent in the six months through March to the lowest level in nine years.
“The slowdown in the housing market over the past month is a real concern,” said David Airey, president of the Real Estate Institute of Australia. “Since early April, we’ve seen the market change from buoyant to slow and depressed.”]
I know as much about the Liberals as I need to know.
I keep abreast by following the debate here, of course.
Rosa, I agree 100%.
1352 rosa – Spot on.
Do we know when the government TV ads will start? Looking forward to seeing them.
[Do we know when the government TV ads will start? Looking forward to seeing them.]
I heard they were starting next week.
I’m delighted to see that Ed Husic is finally going to get to federal Parliament, eight years after being so shamefully slandered by the Liberals.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Ed-Husic-Federal-Labor-for-Chifley/118388888197666?v=wall
Bushfire Bill #1339
Exactly what UK broadsheets said about it within a day or two of Rudd’s announcement – I posted it at the time.
Miners would have done their kicking & screaming (ambit theatricals are part of negotiations) but histrionics ramped up as soon as the international significance sunk in. Copping it sweet in Oz is one thing – the tax isn’t all that much more than what they currently pay state + fed govs. Copping it sweet in Africa, Latin America, Indonesia, PNG and Pacific Islands, where legitimate government take is very low, and government regulation slack (if there at all) is different!
Their Australian “bottom line” doesn’t worry mining companies nearly as much as profits from developing countries where labour is cheap & taxes low in real terms. Mining in Australia is safe, corruption-free (as far as we know), lucrative and reliable enough, despite high worker wages and government “take”, for it to continue despite the threats – safe enough for BHP, Rio Tinto & Xtrata to make that bid to buy Q coal r’way when they did, despite the potential fallout.
The backlash I think they underestimated came from shareholding super funds, retiree & pensioner organisations etc as mining stocks & A$$ fell; precipitating the government advertising campaign. Were an election looming (as some hoped) mining companies’ reactions might have been a factor; but a late November election – possibly as late as early March (that’s c 6-9 months) – with a PM who constantly claims he intendeds to serve his full term, may be a different ballgame.
Briefly
Caught up with your posts yesterday on China – interesting stuff. Have you seen anything on China commodity inventories?
@Briefly, or it could be still the lack of stimulus and investment in infrastructure that shows Australia is weaking again? Because around the world is still in a very week position.
Australia hasn’t had it’s own stimulas package like the rest of the world yet.
oops, six years.
[1345
Psephos
Luckily for me, I gave up reading The Australian at least 15 years ago, and have not watched Insiders more than twice in the last three years. My serenity is not complete, but I’m slowly getting there….
I’m glad we agree on something, briefly. I’ve never watched Insiders at all, in fact I don’t own a TV, and my serenity is quite awesome to behold. Ommmmm…]
I’m pleased we agree on something too, Psephos. Though my family would never consent to the removal of the tv, we do draw the line at cable, so have been spared fox and sky news.
Rosa@1352 – yep, and I can’t wait to see how it pans out and we get to see Abetz stunned into silence and Joyce’s face turning to shades of purple.
Jon – 1352. You’re right – I think Beattie and NSW have given apologies a bad look so it’s time to fight back.
Thanks Gary. With all this talk about mining tax possibly costing Labor seats like Hasluck, Swan, Dawson, Leichardt, Flynn, what about seats it may help pick up like Bowman, Dickson, McEwen, La Trobe, possibly Ryan? I think it will be neutral issue in terms of seats.
A sensible report on the polls:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/poll-results-bode-well-for-rudd-20100530-wndw.html
laocoon, I haven’t seen any recent data on inventories in China, though I understood they bought a lot of metals when prices fell and when the currency turmoil of 2008/9 was at its worst.
Also all this talk about Bennelong being at risk? Do we really think its in danger, especially with Abbot’s new AS policy?
briefly
Thanks; an investor whose views I respect a lot, says it would be worth keeping an eye on them through 2H (as well as US economic growth – or disappointment thereof)
Aristotle – thanks – A superb article, including this choice takeaway.
“The polls for Tony Abbott and the Coalition are the worst in 20 years for any opposition at this point in the election cycle”
Wonder why La Grattan couldn’t have written something like this. Instead, the Age’s chief political correspondent writes about Lowy Institute surveys. A cadet reporter could have done that.
“”laocoon, I haven’t seen any recent data on inventories in China, though I understood they bought a lot of metals when prices fell and when the currency turmoil of 2008/9 was at its worst.””
Thats correct they took advantage of the dip in commodity prices in 2008/09 to stock pile various commodities
Turnbull attacks Abbott’s border security policy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-cant-deliver-turnbull/story-e6frg6n6-1225873221158
Does this sound familiar:
[There are literally millions and millions of people who have refugee status or would if they arrived in Australia and sought refugee status be granted it under the UN rules… So the push factor is gigantic.]
That could’ve been Kevin Rudd answering a Malcolm Turnbull QT question on asylum seekers.
Yes, Turnbull was the one who kept the issue bubbling along. Abbott has just taken it to the next level.
Laocoon,
[This tells a very sad story about the decline of Fairfax. What an appalling situation when a board brings in a consulting firm to review the board’s management plan. ]
The problem that media companies like Fairfax and News Ltd has is that they have gone away from their primary purpose and that is to provide information and news to the “general” public in a fair and balanced manner and at the same time provide a service to their advertisers by exposing their products and services to the widest possible audience.
By becoming active participants in the political process of the country, they fail in their contract with their advertisers by alienating a substantial proportion of their potential audience.
News Ltd for example by being blatantly partisan to the Coalition in their coverage alienate to some degree 60% of their potential readership.
This to me is not a very smart business practice. I am one of many that no longer purchase their product and therefore have no exposure to their advertisers. In my household there were six readers of that newspaper, six potential customers of products and services advertised by that paper.
These media proprietors would have been far better off using the usual political lobbying procedure used by most other businesses rather than trying to influence favourably political custom by being active participants in the political process like they have been doing to such an extreme level over the past few years.
Of course they have been active political players for far longer than that, but it has reached levels far higher than previously as they assume that that is what they need to do to stem the level of decline of their business model.
There would have most probably been far less of a decline in that model if they had kept out of the political process as active players and pensioned off partisan shrills like Milne, Bolt, Ackerman and a score of others of the same ilk.
Why would a left of centre reader subject themselves to “paying” to read their swill which not only insults the intelligence of the reader, but insults that reader’s political leanings also? The likes of these throwback “journalists???” are “never” going to change the voting instincts and intentions of people that they are virtually insulting and ridiculing.
The Gulf of Mexico oil disaster has other effects. AFR reports that for BHPBilliton “up to 10 million barrels could be cut from teh comapny’s 2011 output forecast.” Petroluem contributed about 31% of BHPB’s total earnings last half year
[Yes, Turnbull was the one who kept the issue bubbling along. ]
When will there be a Liberal leader who has the guts to depoliticise the issue, instead of using it to score cheap points?
Surely our border security would be best if we have a bipartisan policy?
All this crap over the $38 million the ALP is spending on countering mining companies $$$$ millions, when John Howard’s 2007 advertising bill was … wait for it … $230 in 2007
http://www.brw.com.au/…/more_good_news_for_tv_networks_r3o4BQonaJx6YkSxeKFrZL
Those blogging in 2007 will remember that, just before he called the election, Howard renewed a slew of government contracts, inc advertising, hence the anti-terrorist, violence against women & other old ads still showing; the reason [Rudd spent] $120 million in 2008 gov advertising.
Moreover, as I posted last week (complete with relevant pdf links), the Henry Review recommended that the Auditor General might not be considered independent enough; propose a replacement structure, & the government accepted it – though anti-Rudd posters ignore the truth, as usual. In addition, government advertising policy, no matter the Party in Gov, allows for emergency advertising to go ahead without review – as happened with Howard Government ads, inc (but not confined to) anti-terrorist ones. I might add that that provision was NOT DROPPED by the Rudd Government in either the original or replacement .
So much for Liberal, MSM & some blogger truthfulness!
BTW, I thought, only in the last week or two, Abbott & followers were screaming for the Henry Report to be implemented in full – with no specification as to which part of what was a comprehensive review – inc advertising awa taxation – they meant!
Ignoring policies doesn’t delete them, or policy-wonk bloggers who know how to Google them!
ShowsOn, is it possible that Turnball is trying to keep the party not united for the upcoming election ?
Barnaby Joyce says the LNPers who are going to celebrate Whitlam’s birthday, because it implies he is going to die soon, should get a kick up the backside:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/barnaby-joyce-apologies-for-gough-whitlam-sledge/story-e6frfku0-1225873367688
[ShowsOn, is it possible that Turnball is trying to keep the party not united for the upcoming election ?]
I guess so. But this reflects badly on Turnbull, why couldn’t he stand up to the rabid right wingers when he was leader? It is much easier having principles when you are on the backbench, and not in a position to actually change Liberal policy.
I hope everyone is aware that this Thursday is National Andrew Bolt is a Dickhead Day. This is a very worthy event and everyone should join the Facebook page. We do need more community awareness of the menace of Andrew Bolt. Remember, the next person struck down by Andrew Bolt could be someone you love.
http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/event.php?eid=374930252229&index=1
I have nominated Bolt for the Friday F***wit on JJJ before. Unfortunately didnt win though.
[News Ltd for example by being blatantly partisan to the Coalition in their coverage alienate to some degree 60% of their potential readership.
This to me is not a very smart business practice. I am one of many that no longer purchase their product and therefore have no exposure to their advertisers. In my household there were six readers of that newspaper, six potential customers of products and services advertised by that paper.]
Scorpio 1376. That is what I’ve thought too. We bought the Murdoch paper or papers EVERY day but for the past 4-5 years have bought none. If we’re out we get the SMH but no longer drive 1/2 for just the paper altho I check the SMH and Age sites every day. Never check Murdoch sites.
They have lost themselves readers but I’ve got no sympathy for them. Instead I subscribed to crikey.
BTW – the piece you posted re Paul Kelly and the percentages. Why hasn’t the Govt explained that 5% in Oz actually means much higher than Europe, etc.
Why haven’t Bob Brown and Christine Milne recognised that or is Paul Kelly wrong.
[I hope everyone is aware that this Thursday is National Andrew Bolt is a Dickhead Day. This is a very worthy event and everyone should join the Facebook page.]
I’m an Andrew bolt skeptic, I don’t believe someone can actually be that big a dickhead.
the spectator,
[“”laocoon, I haven’t seen any recent data on inventories in China, though I understood they bought a lot of metals when prices fell and when the currency turmoil of 2008/9 was at its worst.””
Thats correct they took advantage of the dip in commodity prices in 2008/09 to stock pile various commodities ]
Japan used to do the same thing. When they were the primary market for Australian coal, they used to stockpile vast quantities of it when the world coal price was depressed and bought very little of it when prices were high.
In this way they put downward pressure on the coal price (supply & demand pressure) and indirectly controlled the price that Australian suppliers could demand for their product.
Longer term marketing agreements between supplier & customer resulted from that to try and smooth out the steep rise & falls of price which was in the most part, to the benefit more to the customer but there was still world spot pricing to fill gaps in demand.
The iron ore suppliers like BHP-B and Rio changed over to this system but were able to exert far more leverage in their marketing because of the insatiable Chinese demand for their product and I can foresee the day when the Chinese work out a way to exert more pressure back on the suppliers to bring the prices back to a more reasonable level.
The big miners have been making hay while the sun shines with extraordinary profits and that is why they are going in so hard against the RSPT, they want to keep the majority of that windfall for themselves and their shareholders and don’t wish to have some of it spread around to the proletariat and the great unwashed!
scorpio
I think it is very useful to think about the issues of media companies in terms of their “purpose”. It is not an industry with which I am particularly familiar so I am reluctant to draw any strong conclusions. Personally, however, I think the challenges to their business models are related more to the industry changes (internet most particularly) and are more fundamental than just strength of political bias.
In Fairfax’s case in particular, I would think it has a reasonably strong cultural self image of its purpose as something vaguely like quality commentary, to defend the interests of individuals and the community. I suspect it has lost its compass of its particular purpose and business positioning in the light of the apparent crisis of industry change (eg buying those silly radio stations). What scandalised me most about the article is the role of the board in bringing in the consultants; poor governance, symptomatic of deeper governance issues for the company – like how does it fulfil its purpose in the new industry environment.
(easy to be a critic, I know)
A couple of readers’ comments in today’s Age:
[I don’t know what the Jesuits taught Tony Abbott, but it certainly wasn’t Christianity.]
[Tony Abbott must be a small ‘c’ Christian.]
BH,
[BTW – the piece you posted re Paul Kelly and the percentages. Why hasn’t the Govt explained that 5% in Oz actually means much higher than Europe, etc.
Why haven’t Bob Brown and Christine Milne recognised that or is Paul Kelly wrong.]
I think Kelly is pretty well on the money with this, but there are many vested interests that have done their utmost to ensure that the general public remain unaware of the fact.
If you read Kelly’s piece in its entirety, you will see why Rudd was reluctant to push it also. That was because of the fact that he hasn’t been able to work out a way to justify to the public the increase in energy costs to the consumer after the compensatory arrangements run their course.
My BH has debated with me her concerns in this regard and I have been put in the same position of Rudd, in that I couldn’t give any better answer to her that with an increasing cost of carbon, emissions will decrease and that is the pay-off for the increased costs which in reality will affect pretty well almost everything we consume, not just energy costs.
ShowsOn, maybe pay back for outting him ?
Gusace
I saw this post of yours from last night and found a cartoon to go with it 😉
click on cartoon number 4
[I pity tone for the visions he must have and the voices he has to endure.
he has bought his fate upon himself with full knowledge and intent.
tho a part of me still sees him as a puppet manipulated by Robb and Howie.]
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir/20090907-fdxk.html