The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
I think the reason Hawke is underrated is partly due to the 1990s recession and as part of reforming the economy a lot of changes were introduced that at the time hurt a lot of people.
I for one have slowly warmed to Hawke as PM and even my view of Keatign has warmed somewhat since the GFC.
Edward VIII shouldnt have had to abdecate.
Churchill actually supported Edward VIII.
I dont think he’d have made the British government keep out of the war.
It was unfair on George VI who ended up dying early because of the stress whilst Eddie lived into the 1970s.
It’ll be game, set and match and goodbye Dear John.
George was a heavy smoker wasn’t he?
Great leaders’ greatness often is not recognised until well after their actions. Leaders who force long term change as opposed to short term populism are much more likely to be effective.
Why are we sweating over this poll. For me its the expectation that after the poor performance of the Opposition over the latest fortnight that surely there has to be some negative repercussions. If there isnt Labor has a bit of a problem.
BTW, liked the piece from the SMH that Abbott is in the worst polling position of any opposition leader at this stage of the cycle in the last 20 years. Got no other coverage, of course, as it doesnt fit the meme
JA will struggle to beat Maxine. JA has very little going for him, his communication style is boring and dull considerable worst than Howard
If both Rudd and Abbott personal ratings both crash we might be in for PM Gillard v Opposition Leader Turnbull before the end of the week.
[I think the reason Hawke is underrated is partly due to the 1990s recession and as part of reforming the economy a lot of changes were introduced that at the time hurt a lot of people.]
But those changes are the exact thing (along with fiscal and monetary stimulus) that kept us out of recession this time. Thanks to a floating exchange rate, the currently automatically devalued itself by 30% which made our exports cheaper, so we kept trading during a global contraction.
There’s no doubt that Keating lost the 1996 election because of reform fatigue, all the people that suffered in the short term for the benefit of longer term gains voted Keating out.
BK sometimes it take a GFC type event to show the benefits of the reform process that started in the 1980s.
ShownOn that is correct and for that reason my view of both Hawke and Keating has improved a great deal.
I’m the surprised the lefties are so interested in Q & A balance, it’s the first time I’ve heard them complain about the clear bias on the show every week, almost always against the Liberal Party.
I actually think this weeks audience is quite balanced…. we got the usual array of far leftwing Labor supporters, a couple of socialist Greens thrown in the mixture and a few vocal Liberal supporters.
only 15 minutes to go before the end of the world as we know it.
The panel could be improved by getting rid of that pompous self-absorbed ex young lib pratt and replacing him with someone with real life experience. You know, someone who washes car windows at street corners.
But apart from that it is not too bad, really.
Holy crap batman, people are posting anonymous comments on the internets.
Maxine is horrified by the idea of freedom of speech, she’s really turning into a foot soilder for the Labor Party.
This “he who talks loud and says nothing” young lib is a twat, clearly had a hard life.
[only 15 minutes to go before the end of the world as we know it.]
Sings:
[And I feel fine…]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmxyj6iInMc
I Hope Labor does better than expected With Abbott raising the Boat People issue last week could indicate that their own polling was going against them. A good theme for adds would be to show Ghost towns etc. from previous Booms Like the Gold Boom
While we wait…any locals of Robertson here? Any views on how the new ALP candidate is faring?
[This “he who talks loud and says nothing” young lib is a twat, clearly had a hard life.]
Apparently it is a “former young Liberal”. I want to know why he left.
ABC reporter Emma Griffiths on Twitter promises “interesting Newspoll tidbits coming up on Lateline”.
[Edward VIII shouldnt have had to abdecate.
Churchill actually supported Edward VIII.
I dont think he’d have made the British government keep out of the war.
It was unfair on George VI who ended up dying early because of the stress whilst Eddie lived into the 1970s.]
Supporting Edward VIII was the silliest thing Churchill ever did, it set back his reputation for years and was one of the reasons no-one listened to his warnings about Hitler.
Edward was never called “Eddie” – his family called him David.
Probably because he was a moderate.
Cori does not like a Burka. Says he knows that it is not religious. He is worried that bankrobbers will all wear burkas. Loud clapping from the young lib slimeball xenophobes in the audience.
Cori wants to show real leadership on this matter. Another Dear Leader in the making.
Greens on 16%!
Greens primary of 16%!!!!!!!!!!
And it’s In:
Only 8 minutes to go. Will Rudd still be PM this time tomorrow?
Labor 35, Coalition 41
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/greens-score-highest-support-newspoll/story-e6frgczf-1225873743310
I didnt know his family name Adam and yes it did set back his political career because he threatened to establish a King’s Party lol!
But I still stand by my view that he did not have to abdecate.
It was not fair on his brother who never expected to be King.
you win Shows On!
[only 15 minutes to go before the end of the world as we know it.]
Having just finished watching “The Road” this comment seems appropriate.
[There’s no doubt that Keating lost the 1996 election because of reform fatigue]
Which made Howard all the more circumspect about reform. The never-ever GST almost cost him his job after one term. Following that it was years of … practically nothing … till SerfChoices, which DID cost him his job. And what’s Abbott want to do? Bring SerfChoices back with a cheap name change. Stupidity? Madness? Not this time. It just shows (to me) the depth of commitment the Liberals have to that particular “reform” – and Nasty Tony is just the guy to do it.
New thread.