Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll reverts to type in showing Labor with a dubiously big lead, after being in the ball park of the other agencies last week. The 54.5-45.5 result is a sharp upswing for Labor, comparing with 50.5-49.5 last week. For some reason they haven’t published primary vote figures yet, as far as I can see. Morgan has instead chosen to headline with a separate mid-week phone poll of 655 respondents conducted to gauge opinion on the resources super profits tax, which found two-party voting intention locked on 50-50 – a two-point improvement for Labor on the Morgan phone poll a fortnight earlier. This is the third time Morgan has canvassed voters on the subject, and it finds a slight rise in support since last time (approval up three points to 44 per cent, disapproval down four points to 48 per cent) after the previous poll showed a decline in support since the first. Though I do wonder about the wording of the question, which speaks of “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”. Further questions on other details of proposed changes to the tax system, which show slight variations up and down on last time.

UPDATE: Full results now available here. Labor’s primary vote in the face-to-face poll is 42.5 per cent, up five points from an anomalous result last time. The Coalition are down two to 41 per cent, the Greens one to 11 per cent and “others” has slumped from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

Comments are closed.