Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

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  1. No early Newspoll, Turnball openly criticising his leader and the OO spruiking Turnballs remarks with not a word about Abbott in any of the lead stories.

    Abbott’s approvals have taken a hammering perhaps?

  2. So this story about other countries following Australia re the mining tax, that would make Kev a world leader wouldn’t it? 😉

    That has to be good for his ratings one would think!

  6. Laocoon,

    [Personally, however, I think the challenges to their business models are related more to the industry changes (internet most particularly) and are more fundamental than just strength of political bias.]

    The only reason why the Internet has become “part” of the threat to their business model is because they haven’t followed the business model of other industries (the Tobacco Industry is a classic example) of ensuring that they continued to appeal to younger readers. As the pre-war and baby boomer generations (traditional high level readership) started reducing in numbers, they didn’t make any efforts to encourage the following generations to engage with the same habit.

    Not only that, they have actively been alienating their active readership at the same time as I outlined before.

    That’s a pretty poor business model I would think and as you say there are other stupid moves that they have done trying to maintain their cash flow but in reality, take them out of their core business and complicate what was in reality a fairly simple and straightforward model that worked.

    Plenty of other businesses have tried similar diversification outside their core model to increase cash flow etc and found to their cost that it was a backward step.

    Different areas of the retail trade are classic examples of this in recent times. You will notice that the successful ones diversified and concentrated more on their core product and promotion, the others have failed and gone the way of the woolly mammoth.

  7. [Barnaby Joyce says the LNPers who are going to celebrate Whitlam’s birthday, because it implies he is going to die soon, should get a kick up the backside:]

    A trifle hypocritical seeing he’s been slapping Gough at every opportunity. Let them apologise for themselves.

  8. Scorpio re 1387 – interestingly BHP is pushing to move back to spot pricing of contracts to capture the uplift on pricing on a more regular basis vs longer term contracts. this will work fine in a rising market but if prices fall not so good and more volatile.

  10. [If you read Kelly’s piece in its entirety, you will see why Rudd was reluctant to push it also. That was because of the fact that he hasn’t been able to work out a way to justify to the public the increase in energy costs to the consumer after the compensatory arrangements run their course.]

    Scorpio – looking at it like that and what you have tried to explain to your BH shows how much fun the Oppn would have with it during an election. Garnaut said it would be difficult and the minor parties didn’t help. Xenophon also played his own game because he wanted something he paid for. I’m not really impressed with him. Fielding – well!!!

  11. Scores on the annual Lowy poll of 1000 for Rudd Labor. The poll was taken ages ago

    Asylum seekers 4/10 (The poll was before the SL/Afghan decision, dunno if it would be better or worse now)
    Whaling 4/10 (I suspect that the poll would be much higher now)
    CC 5/10 (This was before putting the ETS on ice, it’s probably worse now)
    Response to the GFC 6/10!!! (talk about ungrateful bastards, sheesh)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/31/2913369.htm?section=justin

  12. Bennenlong will be held by Maxine. If JA campaigns like he commentates then Maxine will record a swing to her.

    I actually don’t mind Andrew Bolt, both him and Neil Mitchell are rather mainstream compared to the likes of Piers and Milnes.

  13. [So not doing a deal with Morris lemma is a bad thing?]
    I agree that Rudd should’ve done more to help Iemma get the power privatisation through. Whether that was behind the scenes pressuring, or some more public statements. Iemma had the right policy, and was simply cut down by idiot union hacks like John Robertson who took their position simply out of self interest.

  14. scorpio

    I have been mulling your thoughts as I have been reading the (paper version) of the AFR. One thing that has struck me has been that one of the most interesting things I read today (besides China steel inventories, which I should have read earlier) was an ad by CocaCola Amatil – well, it was interesting to me. That is a nice business model – much like the rivers of gold, classifieds – where the reader actually *wants* the ads in there.

  16. Gusface advise Paul Howes to read Peter Martin’s blog comments about Ken Henry and take a read of the minutes of the Henry’s efforts last week.

  18. Gusface – once you’ve registered with Twitter how do you actually leave a tweet for Paul Howes or anyone else, please

  19. [Gusface – once you’ve registered with Twitter how do you actually leave a tweet for Paul Howes or anyone else, please]

    Write:

    @howespaul whatever you want to say

  20. Plus if Paul Howes doesn’t already know it point out the most informed debate has been occuring on Poll Bludger

  21. Re New Ltd (the Australian) alienating huge numbers of readers, I’m not sure they really care. They’ve found a niche in the market (right-wing nut-bags) and are pandering to it. That’s the same approach that Fox has taken in the US. Rather than try to appeal to everyone they’ve tried (ver successfully) to rust on a particular segment.

    Still, the strategy doesn’t seem to be working all that well. Only 140,000 papers sold during week-days – which means probably only about 40,000 in Sydney, etc etc, of which large numbers would sit on coffee tables in waiting rooms.

  23. [1371
    Laocoon

    briefly
    Thanks; an investor whose views I respect a lot, says it would be worth keeping an eye on them through 2H (as well as US economic growth – or disappointment thereof)]

    The outlook in the US is starting to look quite weak again, laocoon. The second half will probably show a bit of a pause in the rate of expansion….but not yet looking like a renewed contraction.

  24. Hi All,

    Just so you all know, in the biggest iron ore mines in the Kimberleys, the 350 tonne trucks don’t have drivers at all. They are computer controlled, and follow wires embedded below the roads. The main Rio Tinto control room is in Perth. Labour costs are minimal in large coal and iron ore mines. The productivity increases that have occurred in the last 25 years are phenomenal, much more than have been achieved by any other industry, except, perhaps, electronic componentry. As I posted a few threads ago, in 1980 the biggest trucks going around were 55 tonners. Now they are all 350 tonnes (capacity that is). Shovels and loaders, have grown to match. Per tonne mining costs, after allowing for amortisation of plant and equipment are way less than half what they were.

    Unlike the case in other industries, like computers, whitegoods, cars, where productivity gains have been passed on to consumers as lower prices, in mining the price achieved for the end product has gone up. Between 1990 and now, both steaming and coking coal have well over doubled in price. Royalty rates, negotiated by State governments with very short term mindsets, have been often fixed for ‘life of mine’, at laughable rates. Power supply costs from State owned generators have also been set at way below the rates which apply to suckers like us. (The same applies for aluminium smelters). The diesel they use is subject to much lower excise. All of these numbers are, in extreme detail, in my feasibility and planning models, and I know what I am talking about.

    Our scarce resources are being raped and pillaged, and we, the Australian people, are being screwed. A very good case could be made for leaving substantial reserves of the best grade iron ore and coal in the ground. (Of what’s left, of course, the actual best has already been mined). Its value will increase, in real terms, much faster than any investment that the Future Fund, or super funds generally can achieve.

    Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton do not have anybody’s interests, except those of their top executives and their obscene bonuses in mind.

    We need government in our interests, not theirs, and they two are very different things.

    cheers,

    Mad Dog

  28. Thanks Mad dog – and I bet the 350 tonne trucks are brought in from overseas (not produced by local industry). Further, the mining industry only employs about 1.5 per cent of the Australian workforce. So it’s not as if they’re paying a lot to Australian employees either.

  29. [I agree that Rudd should’ve done more to help Iemma get the power privatisation through. Whether that was behind the scenes pressuring, or some more public statements. Iemma had the right policy, and was simply cut down by idiot union hacks like John Robertson who took their position simply out of self interest.]

    I disagree. A year after the privatisation fell over, we hear that electricity prices are to go up by 60%, obviously increasing the worth of these assets.

    I am surprised that there has not been more discussion of the fact that we almost sold off a stack of state owned enterprise whose bottom lines were in line for such a boost. Surely industry players knew this was coming? Did the government know it was coming? Is this why there was so much interest from buyers while mugs were told we needed to sell an asset that was to become worthless?

  30. [Write:

    @howespaul whatever you want to say]

    ShowsOn – exactly where? On your own twitter page or on paul howes? Taa for your help

  31. [How about a few more head to head debates on the RSPT? Rudd v Abbott asap.]

    Just cut out the middle man. Rudd v. some mining execs. Seeing as it such compelling theatre, perhaps the miners could get some characters from dastardly villans central casting, like, say, a couple of billionaire foreigners and an obese sweating polemicist?

  34. [1413
    rosa

    Re New Ltd (the Australian) alienating huge numbers of readers, I’m not sure they really care. They’ve found a niche in the market (right-wing nut-bags) and are pandering to it. That’s the same approach that Fox has taken in the US. Rather than try to appeal to everyone they’ve tried (ver successfully) to rust on a particular segment.]

    This is right Rosa. I was reading in the Atlantic Monthly recently that newspaper subscriptions per household in the US have fallen every year since 1940, from 1.4 newspapers per household per day in that year, to 0.4 now.

    The editorial approach employed by News is obviously aimed at trying to find some stabilised level of readership. But this alone is not going to be enough for the news companies, who are seeing an unmatched decline in advertising income.

  35. pancho – there is absolutely no way that Marius Bloopers et al are going to turn up for a proper debate with the PM. They would much rather talk to captive reporters, tame shareholders and buy lots of advertising time. Accountability? No chance.

  36. and I bet the 350 tonne trucks are brought in from overseas (not produced by local industry).

    they are all imported – mostly Caterpillar (US) or Kohmatsu (Japan) – one of the reasons for the huge current account deficit. and they are sold through the local Cat franchise such as Kerry Stokes Westrac

  37. [Still, the strategy doesn’t seem to be working all that well. Only 140,000 papers sold during week-days – which means probably only about 40,000 in Sydney, etc etc, of which large numbers would sit on coffee tables in waiting rooms.]

    Sales might be poor, but remember that it’s The Australian’s headlines and stories that dominate the media each day, and often set the line for other outlets to follow. The BER beat up is a good eg of The Oz’s reportage setting the agenda for the rest of the media to follow.

  38. #
    [1420
    rosa

    Thanks Mad dog – and I bet the 350 tonne trucks are brought in from overseas (not produced by local industry). Further, the mining industry only employs about 1.5 per cent of the Australian workforce. So it’s not as if they’re paying a lot to Australian employees either.]

    The demand for labour from mining is not so much in mining itself. It is in the construction of new mines and in the provision of off-mine services of all kinds.

  41. briefly – my guess is that the Australian is losing money (as it has been doing for decades). And obviously the SMH is in terminal decline. But I expect that the SMH will die hard (particularly if the Oz eventually folds) because it does provide a real service: offering local news and balanced coverage. But as you say, the big problem is the advertising stream. How much further can they cut-back on reporting without damaging the brand. I’m also not sure the ipad will be a great salvation, because they’ll still have to keep the presses running.

    Still, it’s an amazing world. I’ve got a Kindle DX (which is wonderful) and I’m about to start downloading the Times Literary Supplement for about $10 a month.

    The web has, of course, is also putting a lot of pressure on print magazines. I’m presently getting the mailed version of the London Review of Books for about $70 oz a year (for about 30 copies). Fantastic value. Wouldn’t have believed that possible a year ago.

  42. From Twatter- David_Speers: Essential Poll shows Labor dropping on 2PP and Rudd’s disapproval higher than approval for first time.

  43. Thanks Mad Dog

    Good to get the update re: productivity and relativley lower employment. Even today, Fran Kelly mentioned in passing about the ‘high’ employmeny in the mining sector.

    Recent employment data: Mining 172, 400 compared to Retail 1,175,200 & Health & social assistance 1, 193,900.

    Mining is the 2nd lowest emploment sector and in the 1st two quarters of 2009 the % change was -4.6 and -4.3 (as pointed out by Ken Henry). Employment in mining is now back to the 2008 level.

    See p34
    http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/9E0CFE203CFECA18CA2576F700154B6B/$File/61050_apr%202010.pdf

  44. [I disagree. A year after the privatisation fell over, we hear that electricity prices are to go up by 60%, obviously increasing the worth of these assets.]
    What? This is absurd! You think the Government should make money off the public by jacking up power prices, and keeping ownership of the generators!?

    The problem is that NSW doesn’t have enough generation capacity, it has become a net importer of electricity from Victoria and QLD. If the Government sold the power assets it would be able to fund new CO2 free generation capacity.

    If the NSW government had any credibility it would immediately ban the construction of any coal power stations in NSW.

  46. Love this bit at the end of the PD’s piece. 😉

    [Correction: At the Sydney Writers Festival on Monday, Abbott asserted it was Peter Costello who leaked the “Walletgate” story to me. I have said many times before this is false. Then again Abbott was not speaking from prepared notes so maybe he didn’t think it was “gospel”.]

  47. rosa

    The Australian is actually quite a good paper if you don’t read the political articles about Australia.

    I also get the New York Review of Books which is always excellent value.

  48. The Daily Torygraph, having brought down one Lib Dem minister last week, is now gunning for his successor. Cameron’s coalition is already looking a bit rocky.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/liberal-democrat-mps-expenses/7787519/Danny-Alexander-new-Treasury-chief-avoided-capital-gains-tax-on-house.html

    Apparently the Torygraph hates both Cameron and the coalition, and wants both a new Thatcherite Tory leader and a new election as soon as possible.

  49. [What? This is absurd! You think the Government should make money off the public by jacking up power prices, and keeping ownership of the generators!?]

    No. The government did not mandate the increases recently agreed upon, an industry board did. What I am saying is that with this decision, power companies are obviously worth more now than they were a year ago. Had they been sold a year ago, the increase in their value now would be to the benefit of the private owners.

    This is perhaps a tangential point compared with long term power generation and the sustainability of the industry, but it is valid nonetheless. I would just like to know what the sale prices and returns are estimated at now, compared with a year ago, when the companies’ bottom line projections would have been much different.

    There has been very little commentary on this, but at face value, it seems to me the people of NSW escaped a dudding.

  50. Diogenes – agree about the NYR of Books. Wonder where they print it. Somewhere in China? Is it then thrown on a boat and shipped down here? don’t see how the London Review can make money – or maybe it’s not.

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