Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Hey musrum

    when we had debate othr nite about Obama & Rudd pro religon , just before you posted something about big Nuke generators with lot of carbin waste off

    didnot want to sidetrack our debates as thought my argy was going ok then , but can you please give us a link to thats as like to read it

  2. Things are hotting up. Don’t mention the war.

    [Greek MPs lash out at Germany over debt crisis
    THENS, Feb 18 (Reuters) – Greek opposition lawmakers said on Thursday that Germans should pay reparations for their World War Two occupation of Greece before criticising the country over its yawning fiscal deficits.

    “How does Germany have the cheek to denounce us over our finances when it has still not paid compensation for Greece’s war victims?” Margaritis Tzimas, of the main opposition New Democracy party, told parliament.

    “There are still Greeks weeping for their lost brothers,” the conservative lawmaker said during a debate on a bill to clean up the country’s discredited statistical service.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE61H1IZ20100218?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r1:c0.163934:b30840296:z0

  3. [ Responding to criticism that Greece fiddled its figures to get into the euro in 2001, communist MP Nikos Papaconstantinou asserted that Germany was not above using such tricks itself.

    “As if we didn’t know that Germany inflated the value of its gold reserves to get into the euro,” he said.

    In 1960, Germany paid Greece about 115 million deutschemarks to compensate victims of Nazi persecution. However, some Greek pressure groups say this did not cover civilian victims of reprisals and a forced occupation loan.]

  4. [Greek MPs lash out at Germany over debt crisis]

    Bashing the Germans is always popular in Greece, despite the fact that German tourist euros and EU subsidies, mostly paid for German taxpayers, keep the country afloat. These ND crooks are desperate to distract attention from their own responsibility for the mess Greece is now in.

  5. When i read what Peter Fuller says , that seems not inconsistant with Antony green
    ie at end of day Senate rejected original ETS Bill , and not th Wong/McFarlane deel as a Bill

    Which would be part of reason for wong/msfarlane bill intro in 2010

    Some Greens here slammed Rudd why he was wastin time re-introducing ETS Bill a 3rd time , not case at all , diff Bill

  6. And if German tourists stop coming the economy will deteriorate even further. Maybe Greece should be declared a Chinese Autonomous Region – it might be in their best interests without their knowing it.

  7. [Some Greens here slammed Rudd why he was wastin time re-introducing ETS Bill a 3rd time , not case at all , diff Bill]

    It’s a different bill but rejection in itself won’t be enough to bring about a DD. After it is rejected there won’t be enough time to bring in a new bill to establish a DD.

  8. Why are the Greeks complaining about deserving bailout money from the EU?

    Let them collapse like Lehman Brothers…maybe next time they’ll paid their bills and stop their bitching about being beaten in WW2 by the Germans.

  9. [What do people think of the German Constitutional Court declaring the welfare payments unconstitutionally low?]

    It depends if you’re a parliamentary supremacist or not :). You might view it as the role of the Parliament to determine what a dignified existence is.

  10. ltep
    Posted Friday, February 19, 2010 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Ron ‘Some Greens here slammed Rudd why he was wastin time re-introducing ETS Bill a 3rd time , not case at all , diff Bill’

    “It’s a different bill but rejection in itself won’t be enough to bring about a DD. After it is rejected there won’t be enough time to bring in a new bill to establish a DD.”

    But that was not my point Critics of Rudd were wRONg , legaly

    as to your further point , maybe yes maybe no , got till Aug to get Senate to say 2 no’s We will see if rudd poshs it on a time basis , or is playing up Tony’s mind , further

  11. [maybe yes maybe no , got till Aug to get Senate to say 2 no’s We will see if rudd poshs it on a time basis , or is playing up Tony’s mind , further]

    Well it depends on the tactics used in the Senate. The current bills can easily be delayed up to budget week (for those who want to check… see standing order 111). Presuming they can be dealt with and rejected in that week the Government will need to wait until mid-August to pass the bills in the House of Reps again, at which stage it’ll be too late to use them as DD triggers.

  12. Ron@301
    [when we had debate othr nite about Obama & Rudd pro religon , just before you posted something about big Nuke generators with lot of carbin waste off

    didnot want to sidetrack our debates as thought my argy was going ok then , but can you please give us a link to thats as like to read it]
    Sorry that was left hanging, but I was having a lend. It is all true. But:
    There is only one ~400 YW (Yotta Watt) nuclear reactor that we have to worry about. The carbon produced will be as a result of Helium fusion. Still some way off before we have to worry about…

  13. Musrem

    how could you , and with a straight face
    and no smileys eithr

    that helium bit may be part of that ITER thing in France i posted to Dario in last day or so ?
    seeing tis hydrogen not unran use

    thanks for letting me know Musrum , your post caught my attenton at time

  14. I said before, for a historian, Herr Doktor knows very little about the Chinese History. Debating him on this subject, like the Chinese like to say, is like playing the piano to the cow. And that applies to iDIOt as well. 😛

  15. #315 – RON

    Hypocrite – thy manifestation on earth is Ron on PB.

    You see Hypocrite, back in December Ron was blaming the Greens for defeating the ETS legislation and saying the time delay in getting an ETS in place was disastrous.

    Now some 2 months later, Hypocrite, your manifestation on earth is saying a delay until August in getting the legislation before the Senate is a good thing. Your manifestation on earth is not criticising the failure of the Rudd government to bring this legislation before the Senate next week. The delay in bringing the legislation before the Senate is now a good thing.

    Hypocrite – you can stand tall and proud. Your manifestation on earth is a true and brave soldier here on earth for you.

  16. Finns

    [I said before, for a historian, Herr Doktor knows very little about the Chinese History. Debating him on this subject, like the Chinese like to say, is like playing the piano to the cow. And that applies to iDIOt as well. 😛 ]

    Scintillating post as always. Your erudition and logical arguments have swayed us all.

  17. Psephos,
    If Han truly want to exercise their power as “ruling ethnic group” they would not have bothered to include every other ethnic group as Chinese. If policies are decided purely by population sizes, e.g. one person one vote, Hans will have a crushing majority and the minority groups will not have anything going for them. The ethnic policy of the government, however, has always afforded the minority groups with more incentives/concessions than Han (I personally agree fully with this policy). There are minority groups with population in the thousands, yet we were raised with the doctrine that regardless of the size of the minority groups, they are brothers and sisters. You continue to make allegations about “oppression” dished out by Han to the minority groups with little evidence. Whatever rights missed by these minority groups are missed by Han as well (taken into account populaton sizes). At least people of minority groups have more range of choice on how many kids they want to have.

    The Chinese people are extremely sensitive on territorial issues. Uighurs and Tibetans happen to inhabit two regions that are by far the biggest (~2.9 million sq. Km combined, ~30% of China’s land area). They are also strategic buffers against India and Middle Asian countries. Any government of China would be buried in a firestorm should they lose any of the two regions, let alone both regions plus more.

    Sichuan is not a Tibetan-majority province by any means. That province has 87 million people. Why you think it, and any other region not previously under Dalai Lama’s rule should be part of a new regime is beyond me.

    Independence based on ethnicity is never particularly attractive to me, either as a member of “ruling group” in China or as a minority in Australia. Irrendentism basically advocates that people of different ethnicity cannot live together and ought to be politically separated, which is a position that I totally reject. How would you feel if all the Chinese/Vietnamese/Macedonian/Martian in Australia feel like they need to form their own country? As to your assertion that Uighurs and Tibetans did not give consent to be part of China. Sure, but neither did Hawaiians/Scots/most Kashimian give consent to be part of US/UK/India.
    Taking this “since I am ethnically distinct I deserve my own country” position one step further, people in the wealthy Yantze Delta region might very well wonder one day why they would subsidise relatively poor inland provinces with their hard-earned cash. Do they deserve their own country as well? There ought to be a limit to what individual groups of any description can reasonably expect politically. Countries are countries, they are not pots that can be smashed at any time.
    Sadly, you fell into the trap that democracy=gold again. Not to sing the praise of CCP or discount the power of democracy, but there are many democratic countries that are much less stable than China. Whether a country is stable or not depends not on whether the president comes from an election by billions of people or by 10 people, it depends on if John and Jane Doe feel that they are so dissatisfied with life they need an revolution. In China, nowhere near enough people are dissatisfied with life.

  18. NSW Labor – Incompetent Using Internet

    NSW Labor government was to announce it’s blueprint for transport on Sunday 21 February (a delayed announcement – it was originally intended to be released in December 2009, but the day before the scheduled announcement then Premier Nathan Rees was sacked by caucus). However, the closely guarded “blueprint” was uploaded to a website “accidentally” – and available for inspection by any web user. The SMH viewed the blueprint and ahead of the big announcement has informed readers of its contents.
    Revealed: Keneally’s transport blueprint

  19. Talking about suceeding from the state, North Queenslanders have been demanding a referendum on the issue for quite some time now. We are making a majority of the states money(from mining in North Queensland) yet get a pittance back from the state government in local funding. Most goes into Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

    When you drive into Townsville there is a sign saying “Welcome to the Capital of North Queensland”, which if anything is a dig at our southern rulers.

    All we need now is a referendum so that we can finally vote to have our own state.

  20. Truthy, It’s a strange night indeed, but I cannot but agree!

    The best thing that could happen to QLD is the creation of Capricornia. One could hope that it leads to a national movement where we may also see the creation of New England with others to follow.

  21. Twas one my proudest moments (but short live) to pick a mis spell on PB ,
    being PY’s changing “lines for “lies”

    Here PY was quotin Michelle Grattan alege saying:
    Labor MP’s ar mouthing lies from PM’s Dept

    Alas , such an obvous mistruth could not hav been spoke my Michelle thought I
    immediate , so I checked Grattans article Unfortunate so I could not evens bragg to adams of PY’s mis spell & me picking it seeing it so obvous that PY must hav changed Grattan’s words somehow or othr to a ‘lies’ word

    But now PY #325 presentes a new varation , he says my #315 says that which is not even there

    Here was me tonite before & in #315 and later Itep debating with Itep ovr Constit requires of a DD trigger on a new ETS Bill that we know from Greens will get voted down ,

    yet i supposed to hav said per PY in my #315 “a delay till aug is a good thing”

    those words ar not there , nor could it be part of Itep/me Constit DD trigger debate

    ps/ What we do know for a fact is Greens TWICE rejected an ETS in Nov , and if they had not disgrase done so , we wuld hav an ETS today passed

    So more coal stations may be built in oz and it ill be Greens fault (and now Abbotts as well)

  22. #333 – RON

    The fault with your lies is that the only reason you were able to check the mispell was that I placed the link to Ms Gratten’s article below the quote I had typed myself (not cut and paste). Further, my mistake ruined a good joke I had intended – namely welded on Labor urgers using “lines” from Labor bosses.
    Your lies include:-
    # That I had cut and paste the quote
    # That I had then altered the word lines to lies
    # That I had deliberately used the word lies (where as it was an inadvertent mistake).

    I reject in it’s entirety your defence of my claim that you are the manifestation on earth of Hypocrisy following your posts regarding delaying the ETS legislation further for “political opportunism” re a DD.

  23. Quote in my $333

    ‘Yet i supposed to hav said PER PY #325 in my #315: “a delay till aug is a good thing”

    I replyed to you those words ar NOT even there in my #315’ !!

    Your defense reply in #334 did NOT even try to defend your false #325 comments ,

    In fact you tried red heringly to change th subject to your first lies for lines blue

  24. #335

    [ you are the manifestation on earth of Hypocrisy]

    [Big call.]

    Perhaps. It does not suggest however that he is the only manifestation of it.

    However, it is not as big a call as that made by Ron and others more fully set out in #334 – all of which are false and of which Ron has no evidence – other than a number of misplaced and incorrect assumptions.

    In comparison, my call, even though a little poetic licence has been used, are based on the 2 varying positions adopted by Ron at – in December the ETS legislation was urgent and now in February, he is supporting the delay in bringing it before parliament.

  25. #336 – RON

    [ I replyed to you those words ar NOT even there in my #315? !!]

    Its the vibe Ron, the vibe.

    The exact words are not there. But to clear it up completely, in which case I will withdraw the “manifestation of Hypocrisy on earth” claim, please now criticise Rudd for further delaying the ETS legislation and call upon him to bring it before the Senate IMMEDIATELY.

  26. PY
    #340

    Ron #333
    ‘Yet i supposed to hav said PER PY #325 in my #315: “a delay till aug is a good thing”

    I replyed to you those words ar NOT even there in my #315? !! ‘

    PY #340:
    “The exact words are not there.
    Its the vibe Ron, the vibe.”

    So now you belate , consede th exact words ar NOT there
    so your defense is belate your false acusaton is based on th ‘vibes’

    anyone reading my #315 , and Itep’s & mine 307 , 310 and 317 ALSO KNOW NOTHING REMOTELY like those words ar there eithr , making your ‘vibes’ defense BS also

    In fact reverse was th case , Itep asnd I were discussing if new ETS Bill could be QUICKENED thru Senate process to meet DD Constit DD trigger requires

    You blunderd in not even under standin ETS Constit DD trigger requires , and made a reverse stat that was not there , and nor remotely there , and your statement was blatantly false as well

    am done with you & your spaming for th nite Facts speak for themselves

  27. No 253

    I’ve always ignored Morgan polls since they are always way out of tune with reality. Furthermore, I am only here by popular demand.

  28. No 134

    [According to this stupid argument, currency isn’t a real market because banks lend people money that they other wise wouldn’t have.]

    Don’t be absurd. Banks lend money for a profit, they do not lend money for free.

    [ I realise that it is a Liberal talking point to pretend that the CPRS will cost more than the Liberal Direct Soviet Action scheme.]

    I love the hypocrisy in denigrating our direct action policy as “soviet”, yet embracing the $43 billion uncosted, unfunded broadband network. It was quite hilarious watching Rudd on Q&A saying that he fundamentally believed in “evidence-based policy” yet he hasn’t even done the basic due diligence when it comes to spending tens of billions of taxpayer dollars, like a cost-benefit analysis.

  29. #342 RON

    When will you:-
    a. Criticise Rudd for delaying the ETS legislation in the Senate
    b. Call on Rudd to bring the legislation as speedily as possible to the Senate, if rejected re-introduce it, and then bring before the Senate asap.

    Until I hear you advocating for that, I will continue to hold the belief that you do NOT place any importance on a quick introduction of Climate change mitigation.

  30. GP, luckily for us you are here to tell us how much this “uncosted, unfunded” scheme will cost and who will fund it 😉

    BTW, i believe the government have said their contribution to funding will be about 4 Billion, with the government share eventually being sold off.

  31. Abbott Gone Mad ?

    Abbott has suggested people think about re-introducing the death penalty. Although he says he doesn’t have a policy to bring in the death penalty, if the matter came before the parliament he would allow MP’s a conscience vote.

    WHY does he bother? Is he seeking to hold out false hope to those who might want and wish for the death penalty to hop on his wagon ? If so, and if he is true to his word that he has no policy – then that is false hope because his government (assuming he ever formed one) would not introduce such a Bill.

    Those opposed to the death penalty in a civilised society must once again stand up and condemn the suggestion it’s re-introduction might be a good thing.
    Death for terrorists is an option, says Tony Abbott

  32. horror look at the poll over night from from same.

    what would a poll like that bee on the abc or the fairfax differenct i would hope.
    and all when Mary mkillop is being made a saint this man abbott sickens me to my
    very core for even thinking of such a things.

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