Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

• Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

• Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

• Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

• Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. my say

    try highlighting the web address, and pressing Control and C (at same time).

    then go back to where you want to insert web address and press Control and V.

  2. Or try highlighting the web address, hold down Control, keep holding it down, then press c.

    Let go both keys.

    Then go back to where you want to insert web address and hold down control, keep holding it down, then press v.

    Let go both keys.

  3. you are great i lean something every day.

    wrote to the abc news radio and web pages lets see what they have to say about
    trying to think of name for him

  4. [Abbott has suggested people think about re-introducing the death penalty.]

    Abbott is a scary Howard-type… in some ways even scarier. I also think he gets a massive power trip off of polarising the nation with such Hansonite views. I’m very worried. If he ever gets in to power, I may just do a Pauline…

    (will this spark a sudden wave of anti-bob1234 pro-Abbott hysteria? >:D)

  5. And he almost makes me feel awful to the point where I want Malcolm Turnbull to be PM… which makes me wonder if Abbott is possibly doing a reverse Menzies/Fadden? I really really really hope not…

    Conspiracy theories abound inside my head at the moment.

  6. *briefly falls under the embrace of Turnbull’s comparative social progressiveness before realising that the Liberal Party itself will never change in the foreseeable future…*

  7. Peter Young said:
    [When will you:-
    a. Criticise Rudd for delaying the ETS legislation in the Senate
    b. Call on Rudd to bring the legislation as speedily as possible to the Senate, if rejected re-introduce it, and then bring before the Senate asap.]

    There are technical road-blocks that make this difficult for the Government. I’m more than happy to discuss this further.

  8. [TONY Abbott has said that in some cases execution is the only fitting sentence for mass killers. ]

    Well at least we know where he’s going to direct that impulse to kill someone and break a “full house” of the Ten Commandments.

  9. This could get interesting. I’m guessing the public agrees with them. Don’t know what the Greens will do but it will end up with a News Ltd vs the Channels War.

    [THE federal opposition has told free-to-air television networks it intends to block in the Senate a promised $250 million reduction in licence fees because it doesn’t believe the government has adequately explained why it’s needed. ]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/opposition-to-block-fee-cut-for-tv-networks-report/story-e6frea7c-1225832437274

  11. i think he has done the death penalty thing on purpose i rang one media out let
    and they said well i suppoe he just answers the reporters questions.
    mmmm

  12. Wasnt that funny yesterday that he should mention the ten commandmants.
    well will he push the button some one should ask him that
    and build the facility

  13. Dio #358

    Thanx for my 1st reading of the day:

    THE federal opposition has told free-to-air television networks it intends to block in the Senate a promised $250 million reduction in licence fees because it doesn’t believe the government has adequately explained why it’s needed.

    Makes Latham only the 2nd maddest Oppo Leader EVAH!

    Geez, Stokes’ mob’s been more aggressively antiRudd than 9 or 10. Now they have every reason to believe that if the Libs win, commercial daytime TV, especially sports broadcasting, is toast. ABC & SBS face the next obvious move after it disobeyed the Media Mogul Emperor, and there’ll be no way SBS will retain its sports broadcast rights, esp Soccer World Cup

    So now the Qs on everyone’s lips are Exactly what did Murdoch promise Abbott in return? And/or Pell? It’d have to be more than a day on the ski slopes.

    Can’t wait to see hoe the Gov sneaks it into QT. Because surely not even Abbott’s Undead is insane enough to give Rudd & his attack dogs an opening!

    Or maybe not.

  14. my say

    But remember that the political commentators on commercial TV said they wouldn’t change what they said based on getting the $250M. They can’t then attack Abbott for blocking it as they would have lied. 😉

    We’ll see how independent they really are.

  15. mmmm well we will see , we should all watch closely but i hate commercial tv.
    and lately hate the abc as much we record programmes now with our new
    t.v that came with a gift from a store, so we are starting to get a good library of
    decent programmes, must admit they do come from the abc.
    There is another channel that has mostly English drama, like Judge Deed, and
    Stephen Fry in a drama that is good too,

  16. So the insulation system’s replacement causes another wave of “garrett must go” from the opposition and its MSM friends. So, they said it was flawed and he must go but he fixes it and he still must go? Reading this hysteria, I thought, where was the MSM’s outrage with children overboard, AWB, WMDs?? Talk about hypocrisy

  19. Well at least we know what Murdoch and Abbott talked about last week. $250M buys a pretty good fight.

    It’s very interesting that the SMH broke the story not a News paper. I’m guessing that was deliberate as News didn’t want to have their fingers all over it as the dots would be too easy to connect.

    But as Scarpat says, I might be seeing a conspiracy where none exists.

  23. [better make some blackberry jam now]

    Yunmm – send me some by thoughtwaves please, mysay

    Terrific article by Peter Hartcher in the SMH this morning and he is spot on. Abbott surely can’t be prime ministerial material.

    I thought Conroy said that the payment to the FTAs is for them to give us some of their spectrum so the Govt. can onsell it someone else. The money received would be part recompense for wht the FTAs are getting.

    Abbott will end up hurting his own brand.

  25. Youg Peter

    I thik that you have a problem with ay oe that catches you out on your liNes.

    Attackig Ro for your iadequacies is ot o.

    Util you apologise youg peter, your words will ever have reasoace

    You are the master of LInES

    (cheers castle for the youg master peter tag)
    🙂

  26. My say #262

    Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

    Reminds me of one of OH’s fave round bits of bronze (collects ’em); ” rel=”nofollow”>Pope Gregory XIII’s medal vgonottorum strages (St. Bartholomew’s Day massacre) celebrating the slaughter of between 5,000 & 20,000 (or more) men, women & children in the name of the Prince of Peace; one of 4 celebratory medals struck to commemorate Vatican/ Spanish/ Holy Roman Empire victories over Infidels & Protestants c1572.

    A crony of Phillip II of Spain & openly supportive of attempts to overthrow/ assassinate England’s Elizabeth I, Gregory was a “liberal” patron of the then newly-formed Society of Jesus (Jesuits). He is also the Gregory of the Gregorian Calendar we still use.

  28. [Now they have every reason to believe that if the Libs win, commercial daytime TV, especially sports broadcasting, is toast. ABC & SBS face the next obvious move after it disobeyed the Media Mogul Emperor, and there’ll be no way SBS will retain its sports broadcast rights, esp Soccer World Cup]

    Is this part of the conspiracy?

  29. bh all made wish i could now thats life in tassie ,
    Peter hatcher seems to be some one who just has common sence
    hope its catching
    Well of course the one s on crickey are good.

    will have a read.

  33. mysay – do you still pick the blackberries wild or do you grow them? The wild ones here get mouldy very quickly with the humidity.

    It’s nice to read something a bit more balance in the media rather than the constant Rudd bashing.

    I missed the piece on RN this morning with Geraldine Doogue talking to a couple of media blokes about the FTAs and Murdoch press. I’ll try to listen to it later today.

  34. My OH has hampered my blackberry picking activities considerably by spraying everything he can, even on the roadsides.

    Whilst one has to applaud him for being a good little environmentalist, it now means I have to ford the river to get my berries (I’ve given up rolling up my trousers, I now just take them off and carry them over!)

    This led to a touching display of loyalty by the cat, who waded into the river in an attempt to follow me.

    And yes, BH, you have to pick your days – a couple of hot days after a good rainstorm is about ideal, nice juicy berries which haven’t gone mouldy or mushy.

  35. From what I’ve been told the Herald Sun is doing its bit and more for Abbott. Front page re Garrett, big two page spread re Abbott and Rudd’s message to the Japanese on Page 11.

  36. Zoomster – you’ve made my mouth water thinking about them. Haven’t seen them like that since we left SA. It’s just far too wet and humid for them here but we grow fantastic veggies and mangoes and tamarillo to make up for it. We can’t spray anything here because the frog population is enormous. Have a family of 5 fat brown frogs living in a pot outside the window here. At night they all jam on top of one another to peek out of the hole in the side of the pot, above the water line, to get the moths on the window. I love it.

    OH should get a piccie of you fording the river. lol.

    Read Hartcher’s article – it’s going to help to understand Abbott when we’re beating the pavement this year for the Ruddster.

  37. Nothing like reading Blogs to further ones knowledge. The old saying “you learn something new every day” is certainly correct.
    For instance i did not know before yesterday that Captain Catholic also known as the Mad Monk, Manly Maggot and other fetching titles was a thief and an Adulterer until he claimed yesterday that the only one of the ten commandments he is confident he has not broken is he has not committed murder. I knew he was a Conviction politician Liar, that is common knowledge.

    It has hardly even caused a ripple in the media. By comparison The Ruddster had a couple of pints at a strip club and it was front page news for a month.
    I dearly would love to see it make Hansard though through a Dorothy Dixer.
    My Question is to the prime minister;
    Can the prime minister inform the house what effect it would have on the morals of young devout catholic children growing up in Australia if they were led to believe;

    It’s ok to have more than one God
    It’s ok to do yourself a couple of nonchalant carvings of Buddahs with big balls and snakes in woodcraft at school.
    It’s ok to yell out Jesus F***en Christ when you hit your thumb with the hammer doing the above carvings.
    It’s ok to work 16 hours a day and seven days a week as long as there are no overtime penalty rates or other entitlements that could be instrumental in reducing the bosses profits.
    It’s ok to dishonor your mum and dad and verbally and physically abuse them.
    It’s ok to top someone when you find the right target so that it will give you the perfect score of 10 out of 10.
    It’s ok to go out on the town for a pick up and finish off a good night by going to her place and shagging someone elses missus.
    Its ok when you have finished shagging her and she has gone to sleep to knock off all her jewellry and hock it for another night out.
    It’s ok for you to plant drugs next door and falsely dob your neighbor in for being a drug dealer so the plods come round and arrest him.

    It’s ok after he has been arrested for you to jump the fence and shag his missus, his servant, his cow, his dog, his chickens, his cat, in fact anything that is his.
    Could the Prime Minister please explain the moral effects of all this on those children growing up in Australia, and does he know of anyone likely to have this effect?

    The Speaker; The Honorable the Prime Minister.

    The Prime minister; I thank the Honorable Member…………

    The Speaker; Point of order, the Leader of the opposition on a point of order.

    The Leader of the Opp; Mr Speaker my point of order is the question is misleading and the Prime minister will not be able to answer the question as the closest he has been to any of those points is seeing a pole dancer through a couple of pints……

    The Speaker; Order the Leader of the opposition will resume his his seat. There is no point of order, the Prime minister has the call.

    The Prime Minister; Thank you Mr Speaker, it looks like a reference to the ten commandments to me, and i will answer very briefly. If all those items referred to are foisted upon the Australian children i am sure it would lead to an immoral, depraved, violent lying society for future Australia.
    You only need to look at the Leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbot for that perfect comparison as he has laid claim to resemble all of that during a recent interview. He claims to resemble all those claims in the question.

    Also heard on the grape vine that the truck that nearly got Abbott was loaded with……….
    You guessed it……………Pink Batts.

  38. BH i ought to talk, but can you give me the link to peter hitcher.
    i have tried to find it my self so i have tried.
    Now off to pick the tomatoes for sauce.
    As you can see we are self sufficient

  39. mysay – the link to Hartcher is at 381 above.

    What on earth are you doing making sauce and jam – don’t you know you are supposed to be doing the ironing, girl. lol.

    I’m off to do the shops. The ironing can wait unless my OH wants to do it. (At this point she fall in a heap laughing at the thought of it – but his sons do it all in their households so that makes up for him I guess).

    Gorn.

  41. [surley the blooking of the fee cut back will not do him any good on commercial t.v
    what do you all think about that.]

    Abbott might be a [insert your own description between Dick Cheney and John Howard] but he isn’t mad. Who knows what gets said or agreed behind the scenes?

  42. Perhaps Mr Abbott could go into some detail about what type of execution he favours? The ins and outs of the amount of pain inflicted on the victim? Should it be in public? How it fits in with “Thou shalt not kill?”

    I want him to THINK about these issues and for his innermost thoughts to be made public. There are precedents: virginity, sex on the road …

  43. Today’s Saturday NT News has about 4 full pages of Abbott in what amounts to a huge PR piece. So must be part of a nation wide event today then? Saturate with pro Abbott PR.

    The right wing media barrons have a lot resting on putting in conservative governments. The march of progress has made some parts of their empire toast. Conservative governments like the Liberal Party will be corrupt enough to give them what they want, in exchange of course for mostly uncritical support. As we saw for the last decade here and in the USA.

    The GFC has just exacerbated the problem and made it much more urgent. They must be truly desperate now to try and insert their government to save some parts of their business. This will be doubly true if the globe goes into a double dip recession as a number of commentators expect will happen.

    It is probably also why the ABC has ratcheted up its dishonesty and support for the Liberal Party cause. Those liberal party flag wavers in the ABC are doing their best to corrupt the place and make it an all out anti government mouth piece getting nearer the election. We will see how successful they will be in doing that.

  44. I give you“?Balanced” reporting and And what Tony’s getting for toeing Rupert’s line!

    I give you today’s Courier Mail. Editor, Mr Madonna King!

    No insulation from job losses (aka “Damned if you do & damned if you don’t”) the only story pp2-3; Reserve flags rate rise p4. The rest of pp1-11 on the St Pat’s stabbing death. (Imagine what reportage would have been if this & several other very violent incidents had been at state schools, not religious private ones!)

    Madonna King’s article (how’s that for nepotism) PM hunts new rabbit in hat pp22-3

    Tucked into p43 (behind full, half & quarter ad pages) is another “Australian First” for Q Health; RB&WH, where surgeons, using new video-assisted thoracoscopy surgery, successfully removed an ovarian cancer which had spread into the chest cavity – surgery believed to have been previously performed only in the USA.
    There because it was a good news Bris hospital story? Gimme a break! It’s because February is Ovarian Cancer month!

    ON THE NOSE: Labor’s coast-to-coast dominance is crumbling – the last thing Kevin Rudd needs in an election year Dennis Atkinson’ article begins “Focus”, a 6 page (55-6, 65-8) wrap around racing pages: Labor on the nose (56), The Peter Principle (65). Gospel of Tony (66-7) Rudd wary of asset ire (68). Just in case anyone thought Madonna King’s husband might be less biased than she!

    I guess most State Murdoch rags have somewhat the same coverage, minus St Pats & the RB&WH Oz first surgery story.

    If skiing with Kerry Stokes = bribery, what does this make brekkie with Rupert Murdoch?

  45. [Perhaps Mr Abbott could go into some detail about what type of execution he favours? ]

    Being a good old fashioned Christian the execution that is the greatest spectacle, that enables them to feel truly avenged and self righteous. Public garrotting would be the favourite of the right wing of the Liberal Party I imagine. It cannot be burning at the stake anymore as the releases too much CO2.

  47. [Abbott is a scary Howard-type… in some ways even scarier. I also think he gets a massive power trip off of polarising the nation with such Hansonite views.]

    How come when far lefties inpose their far leftie views like rolling out the red carpet for the boatpeople which polls continously show Australians disapprove of…. it’s all okay, thats how it “should be”…. but when someone like Howard imposes their supposed “Hansonite views” which in this democracy a majority support, it’s an outrage.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, lefties do NOT represent the views of a majority of Australians. We will not be dictated to on what is moral, what our values should be and what Australia should stand for… these are OUR decisions to make as Australians.

  48. So we can assume it is going to be full-on cheating, lying, misleading and general across the board dishonesty from the right wing media from now until election day.

    I assume the government can repair a lot of the ABC by paying out a number of executive and operational contracts in the near future. Otherwise they will be facing dishonest media campaigns from all sides.

  49. [So we can assume it is going to be full-on cheating, lying, misleading and general across the board dishonesty from the right wing media from now until election day.]

    Yes, so get used to it and move on. Rudd faced a hostile media in 2007 and won and he should be able to do so again.

  50. OPT, TP

    I think it is encumbent upon each and everyone of us who has at least half a brain to fight the gutter press and there tactics

    false flags

    deliberate disnformation

    letter/whisper/pub pushing

    also the ALT media ie crikey and twitter/facebook are great to counter nay even use the shite back at our insidious rightards .

    TELL YOUR FAMILY FRIENDS NEIGHBOURS THE TRUTH

    WE THE PEOPLE, UNITED WILL NEVER DEFEATED

    esp by some yank dingo and his putrid pups of the press

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