Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

Comments Page 4 of 18
1 … 3 4 5 … 18

  2. Gusface
    Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    “Finns I propose LInES be added to the hall of shame”

    assume you meant “LInES -PY”

  4. William

    totally off track,but I read once that a major european war was started because of a msiplaced letter.Unfortunately i cant remember which one.

    Something along the lines that pen was mightier than the sword,literally

  6. Hopefully those commenting on the bookmaking markets have a working knowledge of bookmaking, otherwise they are just speaking through their rrrrs.

  7. [I must say there are very few people on here that I would describe as “human”. ]

    Cows, Dolphins, Dogs, Scorpions, Monkeys, and yes, even a few people on PB!!

  9. Scorps
    [Cows, Dolphins, Dogs, Scorpions, Monkeys, and yes, even a few people on PB!!]

    I miss my turtle,
    🙁

    I reckon troothy trawled turtle in one of his terpsichordean travails around townsville

  11. [Stockpiles are now bulging with 2 million tons of the red metal, about half of annual industry production. The Middle Kingdom is about to cut imports by half, from 3 million tones to 1.5 million tons this year, to bring them more in line with actual consumption.]

    I was curious for copper after seeing some reports so was wondering if there was an ETF. I read at Bloombergs yesterday the Chinese have a stockpile 132m tons of steel as well. Along with their over capacity in a bunch of things and probably other stockpiling.

    [Beijing Seen Vacant for 50% as Chanos Predicts Crash (Update1)

    Excess steel capacity may have reached about 132 million tons in 2009]
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6i2PSZD.Jr4&pos=11

  15. [Can we talk about politics please, rather than each other.]

    Bilbo, “each other” is politics. So what do you think Rudd and Abbott been talking about? About each other, not holding hands.

  18. saw Sky News tonite

    Abbott shown in a hospital & talking about his plan

    Am sure Rudd did coment ,
    but clip showed instead Rudd saying ‘but we been deeling with GFC last 18 mths”
    as if rudd did not care

    Sure clip before what was shown had Rudd comenting on Abbotts hospital plan

    such selectiv editing is not ‘news’ , but TV showing bias preventing punters hearing what both sides say , and making one side Labor seem detachd from ordinary peoples interst in hospitals

  19. [“Finns I propose LInES be added to the hall of shame”]

    Gus, as the custodian of the PB Hall of Shame, self appointed 😛 , nomination accepted along side: wRONg and iRONy and now LInES.

  22. [Thank you for that little snippet of twaddle, Finns.]

    Bilbo, dont mention it. Solving the meaning if life is my mission in living. :kiss:

  23. [ANTI-immigration mouthpiece Pauline Hanson is packing up her bags and emigrating. She is departing for a new life in the UK, claiming that Australia is no longer the land of opportunity. ]

    Gus, she is heading to the wrong place. UK is full of wogs, more than here. She’ll come running back in no time.

  26. I love going through old archives. You find the most interesting stuff. Does anyone remember this!!!

    [Finally confronted with the deception of the government’s campaign on rates in 2004, the PM originally tried to squirm out of responsibility in the most transparent and Howardesque manner:

    JOHN HOWARD has urged voters to forget about a Liberal Party ad from the 2004 election campaign that promised to “keep interest rates at record lows” because it only ran for two nights and he never made the claim personally.

    …”Interest rates are not at record lows now. I understand that. What I said personally before the last election was the interest rates would be lower under the Coalition than under Labor.”

    …”At no stage did I make the claim that interest rates would be at record lows. My words in the election campaign were very clear.”

    Try not to laugh. The PM was saying that claims of record-low interest rates didn’t really count because the ads had only run for two nights. Ah yes, the Ritchie doctrine: just as we all know that you are only once, twice three times a lady, election promises only become binding if the ads run for three nights. And if that fudge wasn’t bad enough, the PM was also trying to argue that the ads didn’t count because he hadn’t personally uttered the claim, an argument that was, um, undermined somewhat when footage was found of him actually uttering the claim.

    Confronted with this information, the PM told us all to “get real” and is now arguing that interest rates really are low, that they are lower than they were under Labor, and that they always will be. ]

    I think it is interesting that Abbott’s mob are still hanging on to the interest rate thread in the hope it can get some traction again this year. lol

    [Anyway, and back to the Shanahan article, the government’s brains trust think they have the solution to all this early bad form:

    …despite the concerns in the Liberal camp, senior party members still believe the Coalition can win the election in the four weeks left in the campaign if the Coalition builds on public concern about union domination of the Labor Party and links the fears with “economic risk” and poor management.

    So expect four more weeks of negativity and attack ads. ]

    Somehow I think that Howard’s god son Abbott has the idea that even though it didn’t work in 2007, there is a good chance that it will this time. And with workchoices thrown in for luck! 😉

  30. Bookies say the 2010 federal election is now shaping up as a contest, with 80 per cent of recent bets backing the new Liberal Leader against Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

    Meaningless statement unless you know:
    a. The hold prior to the recent plunge.
    b. The total amount involved in the plunge.
    c. The expected final hold.

    But the Coalition under Mr Abbot has tightened to $3.85 – the first time it has been under $4 in more than a year.

    Nothing dramatic in a move from $4 to $3.85. It represents a change in the market of 1%.

    A change in the market from $4.35 to $3.85 is a change of 3%.

    He said Centrebet was holding about $160,000 on the election contest, with about 75 per cent on Labor to win.

    If the current market is Labor at $1.20 and Liberals at $3.85, Centrebet over-round at 10%, and thus if they make the book correctly they stand to make a profit of $16,000 – irrespective of who wins.

    Indeed, if those prices are the average price to date – the book looks perfect. If the average price on Liberals is higher than $3.85 ( of the $40,000 on Liberals -25% is at $4.25 – so it is clearly higher) – they have overlaid the Liberals to date.

    Centrebet need to take more money on Labor to balance the book. Usually to attract money need to lengthen the odds – but if you can get away with it at cheaper – all the better.

    So a media release to the media is a good way of letting the punters know you are open for business- and receive more bets on Labor.

    Apart from a 1-3% change in the odds, there is no story.

  33. [ANTI-immigration mouthpiece Pauline Hanson is packing up her bags and emigrating.

    She is departing for a new life in the UK, claiming that Australia is no longer the land of opportunity. ]

    Mind the door on the way out, Pauline. We wouldn’t want to see it hit you on the bum as you’re leaving! 😉

  34. #180 –
    Oops.. the italics bit should be:-
    [ He said Centrebet was holding about $160,000 on the election contest, with about 75 per cent on Labor to win. ]

    After that, it should be ordinary type.

  35. Peter Young @ 180,

    [Meaningless statement unless you know:
    a. The hold prior to the recent plunge.
    b. The total amount involved in the plunge.
    c. The expected final hold.]

    [Apart from a 1-3% change in the odds, there is no story.]

    So???

    Why not take it up with the Herald Sun? They wrote it!

  36. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

    he should hav put a 3rd grafp super imposed , trend of debt , that would show reverse directon of stimil effect , and a nad curve to least 2020 Then solution more obvous first stimili wrongly directd as was lots of TARP monies , now need rein in pork barreling lobbyin built in spending , andput up a 2nd big stimili a la Rudd/swan//Tanner infrastruct & jobs focussed

  37. Gusface,

    [likening the move to the Howard government’s emergency intervention in Aboriginal communities.]

    Yeah, that worked well didn’t! And well under the six Months too as I remember. 🙂

    Abbott seems to think that he can just come out with “anything” that he thinks the punters might buy without having too close a look at, but he might be wrong because I think the electorate woke up to their trickiness last election and would be unlikely to fall for it “this” time.

  38. Scorpio

    [Why not take it up with the Herald Sun? They wrote it! ]

    Why would I do that?

    The story is well written. It provides a wealth of information. As a journalistic effort it ticks all the boxes. It provides filler for the advertisements. It’s just a story means nothing. They can choose to act as innocent advertisers for Centrebet if they wish.

  39. Looks like it’s “Groundhog Day” again! The Unions might be giving Kevvie a bit of grief at the moment but that is nothing like what they have in mind for Tony Abbott.

    [THE nation’s biggest unions are preparing a ferocious election-year assault against the Coalition in an effort to dent Tony Abbott’s rising popularity.

    In a big challenge to the Liberal leader, around 20 union leaders and the ACTU will today map out a campaign, with fresh research revealing 53 per cent of workers believe Mr Abbott would reintroduce WorkChoices.

    The unions are even considering a sequel featuring “Tracy”, the actor-turned-working-mother who played a central role in ousting John Howard from office.

    A multimillion-dollar union campaign would be a big blow to the Liberal’s chances of winning back the so-called Howard battlers, who deserted the Coalition in droves for Labor in 2007.

    ACTU president Sharan Burrow confirmed the unions were considering another round of advertisements similar to “Tracy”, who was captured on film being told by her boss to comply with his directive or be sacked.

    Ms Burrow said the union membership had sent a loud message: “They certainly don’t want Tony Abbott’s WorkChoices agenda.”

    According to the Auspoll survey, 36 per cent of Coalition voters believe a Liberal Government will reimpose policies that flourished under Mr Howard.

    Ms Burrow – who will chair the council of war with around 20 of the nation’s most senior union figures – said the results of the Auspoll survey revealed voters had deep suspicions about a secret Coalition agenda.

    “Australians remember the damage caused by WorkChoices under the former Liberal government in which Tony Abbott and (Shadow Treasurer) Joe Hockey were senior ministers,” Ms Burrow said.]
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26723359-953,00.html

  40. Ah, workchoices! The gift that just keeps on giving.

    If one looks at some of that stuff I linked to earlier, it appears that the Libs have leant “nothing” from their disastrous 2007 campaign.

    By sticking to the same old, same old, surely the electorate must think that this mob just don’t have “any” idea, let alone ideas!

  42. Talk about muddying the waters. Dennis Atkins throws in a bit of everything he can think of here, in no particular order and with the express purpose of confusing readers as to what he is driving at.

    [Labor capped at every corner]

    He starts with this!

    [MALCOLM Turnbull has had a tough week, standing alone in his party as a supporter of the Rudd Government’s emissions trading legislation and taking a walk to political isolation by voting with Labor against the Coalition.

    While the vanquished Liberal leader still harbours disappointment and anger over how he was dumped before Christmas, he saves his harshest criticism for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

    Turnbull, who kept out of the spotlight apart from his speech to the House of Representatives on Monday, has told colleagues he can’t believe or understand Rudd’s failure to either sell his own climate change plan or demolish the approach of new Liberal leader Tony Abbott.]

    And ends with this!

    [Level-headed Liberal strategists are cautioning their colleagues not to get too excited.

    “(Mark) Latham had us on the ropes for almost 10 months in ’04,” one veteran Liberal tactician said. “We have had a good start but a popular first-term Government – which steered the country through a threatening recession – is a mighty big tree to fell.”]

    In between is a big pile of Rudd bashing sh!te and a bit of Abbott “leg-up” and that’s it! What a waste of space.

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26713447-953,00.html

  44. http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26723428-953,00.html

    SUPPORT for Kevin Rudd in his home state has crashed as Tony Abbott’s new-look Coalition powers ahead of Labor for the first time since the 2007 federal election.

    The latest Galaxy poll, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, reveals the energetic new Opposition Leader is making inroads in the crucial battleground of Queensland.

    The pivotal state delivered Mr Rudd victory two years ago but support for federal Labor has slipped three percentage points to 39 per cent, while the Coalition has stormed ahead six since November to 46 per cent.

    It means the Prime Minister now faces a real contest in his own back yard, as more Queenslanders question whether he can deliver on his promises and whether he is too arrogant.

    If preferences were allocated as per the last election, the Coalition would lead on 51 per cent to the ALP’s 49 per cent.

    “This represents a swing to the Coalition of five points since the last Galaxy poll in November and an improvement of around 1.4 per cent on their vote at the last federal election,” Galaxy chief executive David Briggs said.

  45. Rann says the writs for SA election will be issued on 20 February for election on 20 March 2010.

    Hopefully by then A-G Atkinson will have issued a proclamation that the Electoral Act provision making it an offence to comment on the election issues on the internet without supplying a name and address. Such proclamation has not issued as yet.

    [ This is not my name and address ]

  46. @195

    [ Hopefully by then A-G Atkinson will have issued a proclamation that the Electoral Act provision making it an offence to comment on the election issues on the internet without supplying a name and address. ]

    Opps….should have read:

    Hopefully by then A-G Atkinson will have issued a proclamation that the Electoral Act provision making it an offence to comment on the election issues on the internet without supplying a name and address does NOT apply

  47. [A majority of Germans want debt-ridden Greece to be thrown out of the euro zone if necessary and more than two-thirds oppose handing Athens billions of euros in credit, a poll published on Sunday showed.

    Vocal opposition to aid for Greece from members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition also grew at the weekend with several senior politicians expressing skepticism, especially as Germany’s own recovery is fragile.

    The Emnid poll for Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed 53 percent of Germans asked said the European Union should, if necessary, expel Greece from the euro zone.

    Merkel’s coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) are even more resistant to helping Greece.

    “Solving this problem cannot be about aid for Greece,” FDP budget expert Otto Fricke told Welt am Sonntag. “If anything, it’s about keeping any damage away from German tax payers.”]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61D0ZC20100214

  50. I smell a rat with that Galaxy poll. This must be the first poll that shows a swing TO the opposition since the last election?? Was it done at the same time as the state poll??

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 18
1 … 3 4 5 … 18