Galaxy: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland

The Sunday Mail has published a startling Galaxy poll showing the Liberal National Party with a crushing 59-41 lead over Anna Bligh’s Labor government. On the primary vote, which is particularly important under Queensland’s optional preferential voting system, the LNP leads 48 per cent to 31 per cent, with the Greens on 13 per cent. Bligh’s approval rating is down four points to a parlous 28 per cent, and she now trails Opposition Leader John Paul Langbroek as preferred premier 42 per cent to 37 per cent. As always, this Galaxy poll had a sample of 800 respondents and a margin of error of around 3.5 per cent. The following chart shows the progress of Galaxy’s regular polling in Queensland since the March 2009 election.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

16 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. OzPol made some coments about my views on Brisbane traffic congestion on the other thread that I will briefly coment on. I cannot say to much because I was involved in reviewing two of the projects concerned in a professional capacity and am constrained in discusing them. However I will say this:
    – I stand by the view now that traffic congestion in Brisbane, objectively measured in a per-capita basis, is as bad as Sydney. This will understandably harm the governmetn politically.
    – I was not criticising the current projects; I said “a lot of good work is being done”.
    – I do NOT agree that most of the current congestion is due to construction. Congestion I referred to was up to 8 km away from construction sites for Airport Link, Clem 7, GUP or the new bridge. The bulk of Brisbane congestion is due to unmet transport demand from population growth
    – Things will improve when the current projects are completed, especially GUP. However major problems will remain, notably Deagon Deviation to Bruce Highway, NW corridor and inner west.
    – I stand by the view that the problem is principaly because investment started too late. Not enough was done between 2000 and 2005. Since then I know a lot of people have been working very hard. But population growth means the demand has been growing still further durign that period, so it is hard to catch up when you start from behind and the target is moving away.
    – I do not agree with everything Campbell Newman has done, especially the tunnel finance arrangements. However, primary responsibility rests with Qld Transport, as the relevant planning agency. The previous Federal govt was also far too slow to divert major projeect cash to Qld from NSW and Vic. This has improved under Rudd.

  2. As i said before the last election

    QLD is NSW ALP – 2 years

    Completely incompetant, but saying all the right things
    – the new premier had not had time to correct things
    – we have learn from our mistakes
    – sorry for the spin of the last premier, we PROMISE we will be better

    they manage to pull the wool over people’s eye, and is now facing the consequences

  3. [What are the odds that by 2012 we will have a complete reverse of the Howard years, with a Labor Fed Govt and six state Lib Govts?]

    No, I think Vic and SA will still have Labor governments. Tas may have a minority Labor government, although I think opposition would be preferable. NSW and Qld will probably be gone, even though things are improving a little in NSW. I expect Bligh will be replaced by Andrew Fraser within the next few months, which may or may not help matters.

  4. Not a chance in hell.

    Fraser is too easy to tar with the same brush as Bligh. He’ll be known as the guy who was Treasurer when all the unpopular decisions re: spending, savings and sell-offs were made.

  5. They will find a clean skin like a garbologist with no link to the past …. then when that fail when they figure out spin only go so far, they will replace that person with a good looking female (always a female to take down the ship) who will bat her eye lash and say world peace to everything …. who knows KKK will be available by then

  6. I wouldn’t get too excited about the prospect of the LNP winning in Queensland… they seem to have a unique talent for self-destruction and pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. I’d venture a guess that a fair chunk of the blame for this poll can be laid at anti-Bligh feeling, not pro-Langbroek feeling. Given that the next state election is a fair way off, there is plenty of time for the ALP to get rid of Bligh and put in a new leader (who can call off unpopular projects like privatisation and whatnot without looking like a flip-flopper).

  7. [Given that the next state election is a fair way off, there is plenty of time for the ALP to get rid of Bligh and put in a new leader (who can call off unpopular projects like privatisation and whatnot without looking like a flip-flopper).]

    Isn’t this what happened with Rees, Keneally etc? Didn’t seem to work there. I’m not sure the public are so superficial they think that changing the leadership of a party necessarily changes the party.

  8. Last week Campbell, Quirk & Cooper’s Brisbane Concrete Council flicked their draft South Brisbane Riverside / West End-Woolloongabba Local Area Plan to (Member for South Brisbane) Anna’s State Government for a State’s Interests Check by the Minister for Infrastructure.
    The ‘Plan’ calls for the population of the sleepy dormitory peninsula formed by a C-shaped bend in the river across from the CBD to have 33,000 inhabitants crammed in where there are now 8,000, and have the local road clogging rat-running drive-in/drive-out worker population blow out from 17,000 to 72,000. That’s a 400% surge.
    They’re also routing the new city bypass bridge traffic through the suburbs of this seat, including putting a 4 lane feeder through the middle of the local high scholl campus.
    Unsurprisingly, these plans are spectacularly unpopular with the current good burghers of Anna’s electorate, so much so that’s it’s almost unbelieveble that they are progressing and even upping the ante by ever increasing the permisssable height of sky stealing buildings, inviting 30 stories in some places.
    Until one realises this is, or was, the safest of labor seats in state and local governments, so the LNP doesn’t give a toss about what these locals reckon. This is the backyard they can electorally safely dump all those things the rest of brisbane doesn’t want in their backyards, it’s electoral revenge. It will have been noticed that booths where there are already high rises in the electorate, Kangaroo Point, are the only ones the LNP gets a look in.
    How Anna and her Minister for Infrastructure use their powers in dealing with this bit of outrageous bullying by council will be keenly watched by the local electorate.
    If the LNP want to seriously wedge her in her home ground by vacating the contest, leaving Anna to fight it out against just the Greens, (the main postcode here has the hisgest percentage of installed solar panels in the nation) it could threaten a Fremantle scenario, South Brisbane becoming the new Bennelong.
    Campbell’s Concrete Canyon plan provides a battle ground where the Greens could campaign to great effect vs Anna’s record on looking after local interest, which she hasn’t been doing for a long time.

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