|62.9% counted||14 booths out of 14|
9.28pm. Results and swings by suburb. Note the increase in the number of voters and size of the Liberal swing in Point Cook.
|Altona Meadows|| 55.1%
|Hoppers Crossing|| 48.7%
|Point Cook|| 40.0%
9.05pm. Final notional two-party result in. I make the swing 11.7 per cent.
8.43pm. My Labor source has revised that final figure to 12.0 per cent.
8.33pm. Labor sources inform the final two-party swing for the evening is 11.4 per cent.
8.31pm. Altona West is the last booth to report primaries and it’s swung heavily, boosting the overall result. Still some notional two-party figures to come.
8.20pm. Notional preference counts from three big booths have gone relatively well for Labor, cutting 0.9 per cent from my projected swing.
8.16pm. Was wrong about Seaford Primary being a small booth: 2709 votes, evidently being a big growth area. Result consistent with overall trend.
8.10pm. 16 per cent swing at Boardwalk boosts overall swing.
8.00pm. Outstanding booths are big Altona West, medium-sized Boardwalk and (probably) small Seabrook Primary.
7.46pm. Double-digit primary vote swing to the Liberals at Jamieson Way.
7.37pm. Big Altona Bay and Derrimut booths swing very slightly below average, but the swing is still very likely to finish in double figures on 2PP and well over on the primary vote.
7.33pm. Large Laverton North booth almost exactly in line with existing result.
7.29pm. Altona and Altona Meadows reporting, respectively with heavier and lighter than average swings, collectively making no difference to the existing 2pp swing.
7.26pm. Antony Green confirms Bellbridge is Central Park, but I had misassigned the Laverton booth, not that it mattered much. Lots of differences in booth locations compared with 2006.
7.24. Another relatively mild result at the Laverton booth takes some more edge off the 2PP swing. Still over double figures, but it remains possible it might fall back under.
7.22pm. Not entirely sure where the just-reported Bellbridge booth is – I’m guessing Central Park Community centre for the time being. If I’m right, it’s a relatively mild but still heavy swing against Labor.
7.16pm. I’m informed Altona Meadows CC was a different booth from the one I thought – this means the 2PP swing is about 2 per cent lower than my projection.
7.14pm. Now I have actual preference figures from two booths, the swing looks even bigger – in other words, my preference estimates were flattering Labor.
7.09pm. Modest rise for the Greens so far by by-election standards; still only small booths in, but it looks like the cream of the swing is going to the Liberals.
7.07pm. New Point Cook North booth maintains the existing picture, perhaps despite expectations the new areas would be unusually strong for the Liberals.
7.04pm. Swing only slightly lower at the small Seabrook booth. Labor projected to win, but after a very uncomfortable swing.
7.01pm. Clearly Antony Green has Altona Meadows CC corresponding with the Altona Bay result from 2006, which had also been my lucky guess. So we look to have a swing against Labor of nearly 17 per cent on our first booth. Preference distributions are just estimates at this stage.
7pm. A booth called Altona Meadows CC has reported: not sure which of two Altona Meadows booths it corresponds with, but whichever it is there’s a huge swing against Labor well into the teens.
6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Altona by-election, for which polls have just closed. The table above will show raw results for the primary vote, along with primary vote swings and two-party preferred projections based on booth matching.
203 comments on “Altona by-election live”
[ There’s a problem with the “live market “test” in Laverton North” theory (#168), namely that the ABC website has the names of the Laverton booths transposed. As you can see from the VEC site ]
Andrew Owens (200 at 11.54pm on 14/2),
Thank you for that information. I would not relax, however.
Does anyone know if Family First are running this year? They attracted between 3.5 – 4.8% of the primary vote in 2006 in the most marginal seats (4.8% in Forest Hill, 4.7% in South Barwon the highest), in Mt Waverley there was a swing away from Labor, Liberal AND Green which all went to Family First.