Altona by-election live

Votes Swing 2PP Swing
NAIN 468
Independent 1.6%
Independent 1.7%
Socialist Alliance 1.7%
ROSE 9577 8.3% 41.5% 11.7%
Liberal 31.9%
STRANGWARD 3105 1.9%
Greens 10.3%
Independent 0.4%
SHAW 505
Independent 1.7%
HENNESSY 13558 -15.9% 58.5% -11.7%
Labor 45.2%
62.9% counted 14 booths out of 14

9.28pm. Results and swings by suburb. Note the increase in the number of voters and size of the Liberal swing in Point Cook.

Altona 42.5%
Altona Meadows 55.1%
Hoppers Crossing 48.7%
Laverton 53.2%
Point Cook 40.0%
Seabrook 45.1%
TOTAL 47.8%

9.05pm. Final notional two-party result in. I make the swing 11.7 per cent.

8.43pm. My Labor source has revised that final figure to 12.0 per cent.

8.33pm. Labor sources inform the final two-party swing for the evening is 11.4 per cent.

8.31pm. Altona West is the last booth to report primaries and it’s swung heavily, boosting the overall result. Still some notional two-party figures to come.

8.20pm. Notional preference counts from three big booths have gone relatively well for Labor, cutting 0.9 per cent from my projected swing.

8.16pm. Was wrong about Seaford Primary being a small booth: 2709 votes, evidently being a big growth area. Result consistent with overall trend.

8.10pm. 16 per cent swing at Boardwalk boosts overall swing.

8.00pm. Outstanding booths are big Altona West, medium-sized Boardwalk and (probably) small Seabrook Primary.

7.46pm. Double-digit primary vote swing to the Liberals at Jamieson Way.

7.37pm. Big Altona Bay and Derrimut booths swing very slightly below average, but the swing is still very likely to finish in double figures on 2PP and well over on the primary vote.

7.33pm. Large Laverton North booth almost exactly in line with existing result.

7.29pm. Altona and Altona Meadows reporting, respectively with heavier and lighter than average swings, collectively making no difference to the existing 2pp swing.

7.26pm. Antony Green confirms Bellbridge is Central Park, but I had misassigned the Laverton booth, not that it mattered much. Lots of differences in booth locations compared with 2006.

7.24. Another relatively mild result at the Laverton booth takes some more edge off the 2PP swing. Still over double figures, but it remains possible it might fall back under.

7.22pm. Not entirely sure where the just-reported Bellbridge booth is – I’m guessing Central Park Community centre for the time being. If I’m right, it’s a relatively mild but still heavy swing against Labor.

7.16pm. I’m informed Altona Meadows CC was a different booth from the one I thought – this means the 2PP swing is about 2 per cent lower than my projection.

7.14pm. Now I have actual preference figures from two booths, the swing looks even bigger – in other words, my preference estimates were flattering Labor.

7.09pm. Modest rise for the Greens so far by by-election standards; still only small booths in, but it looks like the cream of the swing is going to the Liberals.

7.07pm. New Point Cook North booth maintains the existing picture, perhaps despite expectations the new areas would be unusually strong for the Liberals.

7.04pm. Swing only slightly lower at the small Seabrook booth. Labor projected to win, but after a very uncomfortable swing.

7.01pm. Clearly Antony Green has Altona Meadows CC corresponding with the Altona Bay result from 2006, which had also been my lucky guess. So we look to have a swing against Labor of nearly 17 per cent on our first booth. Preference distributions are just estimates at this stage.

7pm. A booth called Altona Meadows CC has reported: not sure which of two Altona Meadows booths it corresponds with, but whichever it is there’s a huge swing against Labor well into the teens.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Altona by-election, for which polls have just closed. The table above will show raw results for the primary vote, along with primary vote swings and two-party preferred projections based on booth matching.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 comments on “Altona by-election live”

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  1. With a Head Office imposed candidate losing 15% of the primary vote, it must be time for Labor to consider returning to the system of allowing local branches (and local people) to decide the candidate.

  2. Has Victorian Labor one election victory left? I think so but if Labor manages to win this time the next 4 years are going to be very difficult and it will be a challenge to avoid falling in a heap as in Qld

  3. The new Point Cook North booth (53.6 to 46.4) is not a bad result for labor because point cook not real labor area. The Liberal should have won it

  4. Leadership – #16

    There was no local ballot to be won. The local candidate had her arm twisted and withdrew on the promise of a seat elsewhere at another time. If there was a local ballot–please tell me the result of it in terms of votes for the winning candidate and the for the losing candidate.

  5. #18

    Or does Victorian labor actually hold ballots where there is only one candidate on the ballot paper. The choice for voters is to vote for the only candidate or vote informal?

  6. Good result for the Liberals, with most of the swing going directly to them.

    It’ll be the closest result since 1996, although a 20% margin was probably very inflated.

  7. Labor have got the swing down to 12% now – so they are improving.

    What would a uniform swing of 7% statewide against Labor at the general election mean ?

  8. With 10 booths counted out of 14 total vote counted is around 20,000 out of eligible 47,000 votes. Means votes today around 30,000. Which means around 33% are pre polls or non voters.

  9. #17

    Yeah the Greens’ performance is ordinary, given the size of the anti-Labor swing. I know it’s not a very Green-voting area but still….

  10. #25

    I will hold judgment on that till close of count. Raw swing is not the only determinant. I suggest % increase on prior general election is a better way of comparing like with like.

  11. Gary @ 15: very difficult to maintain morale and enthusiasm when facing defeat. The worry for the Greens is their slender hold on their West metro Leg Council seat although presumably they would get Lib pref ahead of Labor

  12. Remember that the 7 percent vote Family First acheived in 2006 had to go somewhere and it wasn’t going to the ALP or Greens.

    Bad result for the greens. If the Libs look like they are mounting a serious challenge then the greens will get crowded out.

    Turnout is not that great which means we need to be careful in applying the results to a statewide picture

  13. Well still a comfortable win for the ALP, but Brumby co might want to review tactics. If they ignore this swing it will be at their peril.

  14. Green vote in my predicted zone, ALP worse. swings on , Fed election then more reason to backlash against the state. Bad news for Head office, Bails in the clear, and William, remember we had a bit of a stoush as to whether the Libs would run, well what can I say.

  15. This isn’t a normal byelection as in the majority of cases only one major party runs. So this needs to be compared to the swing to the Greens when both ran.

    Its just commonsense that most of the anti-government swing would go to the opposition.

    Thats why as soon as the Libs decided to run I knew the Greens would be lucky to get a 3% swing.

  16. Barking,

    When the electorate was looking to make a protest vote, they did not turn to the Greens.

    What part of “not in the mind set of swinging voters” don’t you understand.

    Labor cops a swing, still holds the seat. This result only confirms that the Greens are just a boutique of parked Labor votes.

  17. GG,
    Give me 2.2% swing at the next fed and state elections and I’ll barely be able to contain myself. If I can make one observation its this, You are refective of the broad church of the alp, you are concentrating on the Greens while the Libs are coming. Like a small bully in the playground you forget who your enemy is.

  18. Barking,

    Just because you cannot sustain a coherent argument does not make me a bully.

    The Greens performance when 10-12% swing was on the cards is pathetic. Just look how sour the beer is tasting to your colleagues. Follows up a terrible performance in Higgins.

    Read the papers tomorrow if you doubt me.

  19. GG,
    :”The Greens performance when 10-12% swing was on the cards is pathetic. ”
    You made some comment recently that only mugs make predictions and now you are framing this as a forgone conclusion.
    This is my last reponse to you, you are just an idiot.

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