Altona by-election live

Votes Swing 2PP Swing
NAIN 468
Independent 1.6%
Independent 1.7%
Socialist Alliance 1.7%
ROSE 9577 8.3% 41.5% 11.7%
Liberal 31.9%
STRANGWARD 3105 1.9%
Greens 10.3%
Independent 0.4%
SHAW 505
Independent 1.7%
HENNESSY 13558 -15.9% 58.5% -11.7%
Labor 45.2%
62.9% counted 14 booths out of 14

9.28pm. Results and swings by suburb. Note the increase in the number of voters and size of the Liberal swing in Point Cook.

Altona 42.5%
Altona Meadows 55.1%
Hoppers Crossing 48.7%
Laverton 53.2%
Point Cook 40.0%
Seabrook 45.1%
TOTAL 47.8%

9.05pm. Final notional two-party result in. I make the swing 11.7 per cent.

8.43pm. My Labor source has revised that final figure to 12.0 per cent.

8.33pm. Labor sources inform the final two-party swing for the evening is 11.4 per cent.

8.31pm. Altona West is the last booth to report primaries and it’s swung heavily, boosting the overall result. Still some notional two-party figures to come.

8.20pm. Notional preference counts from three big booths have gone relatively well for Labor, cutting 0.9 per cent from my projected swing.

8.16pm. Was wrong about Seaford Primary being a small booth: 2709 votes, evidently being a big growth area. Result consistent with overall trend.

8.10pm. 16 per cent swing at Boardwalk boosts overall swing.

8.00pm. Outstanding booths are big Altona West, medium-sized Boardwalk and (probably) small Seabrook Primary.

7.46pm. Double-digit primary vote swing to the Liberals at Jamieson Way.

7.37pm. Big Altona Bay and Derrimut booths swing very slightly below average, but the swing is still very likely to finish in double figures on 2PP and well over on the primary vote.

7.33pm. Large Laverton North booth almost exactly in line with existing result.

7.29pm. Altona and Altona Meadows reporting, respectively with heavier and lighter than average swings, collectively making no difference to the existing 2pp swing.

7.26pm. Antony Green confirms Bellbridge is Central Park, but I had misassigned the Laverton booth, not that it mattered much. Lots of differences in booth locations compared with 2006.

7.24. Another relatively mild result at the Laverton booth takes some more edge off the 2PP swing. Still over double figures, but it remains possible it might fall back under.

7.22pm. Not entirely sure where the just-reported Bellbridge booth is – I’m guessing Central Park Community centre for the time being. If I’m right, it’s a relatively mild but still heavy swing against Labor.

7.16pm. I’m informed Altona Meadows CC was a different booth from the one I thought – this means the 2PP swing is about 2 per cent lower than my projection.

7.14pm. Now I have actual preference figures from two booths, the swing looks even bigger – in other words, my preference estimates were flattering Labor.

7.09pm. Modest rise for the Greens so far by by-election standards; still only small booths in, but it looks like the cream of the swing is going to the Liberals.

7.07pm. New Point Cook North booth maintains the existing picture, perhaps despite expectations the new areas would be unusually strong for the Liberals.

7.04pm. Swing only slightly lower at the small Seabrook booth. Labor projected to win, but after a very uncomfortable swing.

7.01pm. Clearly Antony Green has Altona Meadows CC corresponding with the Altona Bay result from 2006, which had also been my lucky guess. So we look to have a swing against Labor of nearly 17 per cent on our first booth. Preference distributions are just estimates at this stage.

7pm. A booth called Altona Meadows CC has reported: not sure which of two Altona Meadows booths it corresponds with, but whichever it is there’s a huge swing against Labor well into the teens.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Altona by-election, for which polls have just closed. The table above will show raw results for the primary vote, along with primary vote swings and two-party preferred projections based on booth matching.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 comments on “Altona by-election live”

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  1. AH bugger, try to be a smart arse and look what happens….

    What if there WERE no rhetorical questions?

    And surely you’d agree it was an underwhelming performance by Labor?

  2. #53

    True, but they were never going to lose anyway. And it’s a sobering swing. Whether the Liberals can actually capitalise on this is a different story, of course……..

  3. Barking #42

    [ Give me 2.2% swing at the next fed and state elections and I’ll barely be able to contain myself. ]

    I would argue that 2.2% swing on raw figures represents an increase of about 25% on the Greens vote in the 2006 general election.

    If this increase holds up, it takes 12% statewide to say 15% – which starts making Senate seats look good for the Greens.


  4. MDM,

    By elections are always difficult. Labor retains with around 60% of the TPP. If this is as bad as it gets, only another generation of quality Labor Government to go.

    Beat me with your swizzle stick.

  5. Good evening bludgers
    * A good result for Labor, because the swing is big enough to keep Baillieu in his job till the election, which is what Labor wants, without being big enough to indicate any real trouble for Labor.
    * Also a poor result for the as-ever-over-hyped Greens, but really, who cares?

  6. The rusted on Labor urgers will dismiss tonight as just another win.

    Good. We don’t want Labor to take any lessons from it. We want Labor to become lazy and complacent in their campaigning.

    Cos we are coming to get you haha, we coming to get you and take you away..haha


  7. “Beat me with your swizzle stick”

    I must be either too old or too young, cause that flew right over my head. But I’ll let it go, I think…….

  8. Well said peter,
    now 2.5% swing, we greens know that when people vote green once they stick to about 75%, its great result for the greens, and I agree the alp are cocky and the tide has turned. Will be interested in the media wash up.

  9. [The rusted on Labor urgers will dismiss tonight as just another win.]

    A 12% swing against Labor and they’re celebrating. Talk about being deluded fools…….

  10. [Will be interested in the media wash up.]

    The media wash up will be violently anti-Labor as always. Both the Murdoch press from the right and The Age from the left will pronounce Brumby to be dead and buried. That also suits Labor just fine.

  11. The Greens won’t get a mention in the media – but who cares.

    Marching onward, ever onward – we aren’t gunna waste time worrying about the MSM……

  12. Just a small point, I will never put the libs 2, not like the alp. Family first, dlp, and the rest. What you lot miss is that your leaders are hypocricts and your rank and file are really pissed off. You are so busy being fed at the table of the rich and famous that you are missing the backlash.

  13. Antony’s final results for the night project Labor 58.2%, the same as the 1996 election result, and I assume the narrowest margin for decades.

  14. I was a member of the ALP, once, left because of your lurch to the right. How telling that the union movement have flogged Minister Garrett. After the disgrace of workchoices, he should be awake to OH&S. This is core business. I would never give up profits over workers giong home. Get real. Spin has replaced workers safety, why? because your business mates are making money. Disgrace.

  15. I am dreaming of the Labor Party TV ads in 2031-

    Voice-over on drawing of Australia – with most states coloured Green:

    You can’t afford wall-to-wall Green

  16. [Antony’s final results for the night project Labor 58.2%, the same as the 1996 election result, and I assume the narrowest margin for decades.]

    Who can spot the logical error in this post?

  17. [Gary Bruce,
    What spin is ALP HQ feeding you about tonight’s attrocious result?]
    Pat, I thought the Liberal faithful would show up here tonight. They love a good defeat.
    Pity I’m not an ALP member.

  18. [Barking,

    My goodness, can’t even get a comment out any more you old tart.

    I hope you didn’t die in mid sentence.]

    GG, are you saying that Barking is becoming Carking?

  19. Baillieu is the biggest stumbling block for the Libs winning in Victoria.
    But ill take a 11% swing to the Liberals any day.

    I dont expect the Libs to win this year. But stranger things have happened

  20. Those swings are almost counter-intuitive…

    Settled, stable Altona, Altona Meadows and Laverton get bigger swings than rapidly growing mortgage belt areas of Seabrook and Hoppers Crossing……

  21. From the pendulum, 6.3% (Bentleigh) to reduce Labor to minority, and I assume 6.6% (Ballarat East) for the Liberals to form majority government.

  22. [How many seats did the Greens win tonight?]

    See my post at #7.

    Labor was the incumbent. They suffered a 12% 2PP swing. You Labor chops really need to stop the spin…

  23. [Add it up however you like, Greens are losers.]

    You’re taking up the very insecure position of talking about someone else than talking about yourself.

    Your mob was the incumbent.

    You suffered a 12% 2PP swing.

    That is near Bass 1975 proportions, or NSW by-elections in the past couple of years.

    Have a few drinks, and DEAL WITH IT.

  24. [From the pendulum, 6.3% (Bentleigh) to reduce Labor to minority, and I assume 6.6% (Ballarat East) for the Liberals to form majority government.]
    Thanks for that MDMConnell. What was the swing to oust Kennett?

  25. bob,

    Winners are grinners. Losers please themselves with their would haves and could haves. The maybes and the perhapses. Shattered yet again by the the competency of a moderate Labor Governments getting on with the job.

    Not wanting to dance on your grave or anything, but baccanalia takes over after a few victorious champagnes from the keg of victory.

  26. [Add it up however you like, Greens are losers.]

    Labor held the seat, the Libs got a nice swing. What did the Greens get? A big “no thanks” from working-class voters, as usual. Go back to Fitzroy.

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